A New Look at Child Poverty in California July 2017 Sarah Bohn Supported with funding from the LA Partnership for Early Childhood Investment and Sunlight Giving
Child poverty more prevalent today than before the recession Child Poverty Rate (%) 24% California 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% U.S. 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SOURCE: Official poverty estimates from the Census American Community Survey. 2
Policymakers need realistic picture of poverty Official poverty measure devised in 1960s Tracks trends and determines eligibility for programs Has not kept up with changes in consumption & policy Census Bureau and PPIC/Stanford alternative poverty measures address these shortcomings Key improvements: Incorporates variation in cost of living Accurate estimate of family resources, from work and safety net benefits, less taxes and medical & child care expenses 3
Percent in Poverty Next generation measure shows more Californians in poverty 25% 20% 20.6% 23.1% 23.1% Official Poverty Rate 15% 10% 15.4% California Poverty Measure Rate 5% 0% All persons Children SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2014; official poverty estimates from the California sample of the ACS (2014). 4
Typical family needs about $6,000 more than FPL to make ends meet Statewide San Francisco Los Angeles Riverside Sacramento San Joaquin Fresno Merced Federal Poverty Line $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 Average CPM Threshold, Family of Four SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2014. 5
Percent Large-scale, need-based programs cut the poverty rate sharply 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 8.2 14.0 Additional persons in poverty if safety net omitted 15.0 10.0 20.6 23.1 California Poverty Measure Rate 5.0 0.0 All Persons Children SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2014. Safety net programs include: EITC/CTC, CalFresh, CalWORKs, GA, SSI, WIC, federal housing subsidies, and school meals 6
Individual programs contribute substantially to poverty mitigation Medical expenses Work expenses SSI School meals Housing subsidies CalWORKs/GA CalFresh EITC/CTC -6.0-4.0-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Additional children in poverty in absence of program (pct point) SOURCE: California Poverty Measure estimates for 2014. 7
California poverty high compared to other states Top Ten Poverty Rates District of Columbia 22.2 California 20.6 Florida 19 Louisiana 17.9 New York 17.9 Arizona 17.5 New Mexico 17.1 Mississippi 17 Nevada 17 Georgia 16.8 SOURCE: Census Supplemental Poverty Measure, 2013-2015 average 8
A quarter of young children in California live in poverty Over 750,000 children age 5 and under live in families struggling to meet basic needs The typical poor family with young children: has $26,000 in total resources per year (including benefits from safety net programs) needs $7,800 more per year to be above the poverty line Adverse circumstances in children s early years can have long-term physical, social, and behavioral consequences 9
Our latest research Focuses on young children age 0 5 in California Describes how the circumstances of poverty and driving factors vary across the state, using 2011-2014 California Poverty Measure data Features an online interactive map where users can explore and download the rich local area data 10
Poverty rates vary across the state s major regions Statewide Los Angeles County Central Coast Orange County San Diego County Central Valley and Sierra Inland Empire Northern region Bay Area Sacramento region 23 22 20 20 25 24 25 27 30 30 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% CPM poverty rate among young children 11
but local variation in poverty is even more dramatic 12
13
14
New picture of poverty among California s youngest How many young children in California are poor, and what do their families look like? What are the major factors contributing to their poverty status? Income from work Coping with California s high cost of living Access to social safety net benefits 15
16
Most poor families with young children have at least one working adult 50% working full-time, 21% part-time But substantial variation statewide 17
18
19
Despite working full-time, difficult to surmount the high cost of living On average, family of four in California needs $31,000 to meet basic needs Average housing costs for poor families with young children are $11,000 statewide But for one-third of such families, housing costs are 50% or more of their monthly resources 20
21
How do poor families cope with a high cost of living? 55% of poor young children live in overcrowded housing twice the rate of non-poor young children Some working parents cope by making extremely long commutes Major social safety net programs boost family resources But they do not account for cost of living 22
Safety net programs mitigate child poverty substantially Statewide Central Valley and Sierra Northern region Inland Empire Sacramento region Los Angeles County San Diego County Central Coast Orange County Bay Area 8 9 12 11 0 5 10 15 20 25 Increase in young child poverty rate absent the safety net (% point) 15 16 16 18 19 24 Note: Safety net programs include CalWORKs, CalFresh, EITC, CTC, school meals, WIC, SSI, General Assistance, federal housing subsidies 23
How can we lower child poverty in California? Varying strategies are needed across California s diverse regions and local areas Safety net programs are an important boost for nearly all poor families with young children Efforts to increase enrollment among the eligible population are key Identifying gaps related to cost of living may also be warranted 24
Thank you for your interest in this work http://www.ppic.org/publication/geography-of-child-poverty-incalifornia/ http://www.ppic.org/map/geography-of-child-poverty-in-california/ *These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Sarah Bohn (bohn@ppic.org; 415-291-4413) 25
26
27
28
29