Eni strategy FIT to GROW 4YP COMPANY POSITIONED FOR A LOWER SCENARIO. TRANSFORMATION into a fully integrated O&G

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Transcription:

Disclaimer This document contains forward-looking statements regarding future events and the future results of Eni that are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, and projections about the industries in which Eni operates and the beliefs and assumptions of the management of Eni. In addition, Eni s management may make forward-looking statements orally to analysts, investors, representatives of the media and others. In particular, among other statements, certain statements with regard to management objectives, trends in results of operations, margins, costs, return on capital, risk management and competition are forward looking in nature. Words such as expects, anticipates, targets, goals, projects, intends, plans, believes, seeks, estimates, variations of such words, and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. Therefore, Eni s actual results may differ materially and adversely from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, those discussed in Eni s Annual Reports on Form 20-F filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC ) under the section entitled Risk factors and in other sections. These factors include but are not limited to: Fluctuations in the prices of crude oil, natural gas, oil products and chemicals; Strong competition worldwide to supply energy to the industrial, commercial and residential energy markets; Safety, security, environmental and other operational risks, and the costs and risks associated with the requirement to comply with related regulation, including regulation on GHG emissions; Risks associated with the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, including the risk that exploration efforts may be unsuccessful and the operational risks associated with development projects; Uncertainties in the estimates of natural gas reserves; The time and expense required to develop reserves; Material disruptions arising from political, social and economic instability, particularly in light of the areas in which Eni operates; Risks associated with the trading environment, competition, and demand and supply dynamics in the natural gas market, including the impact under Eni take-or-pay long-term gas supply contracts; Laws and regulations related to climate change; Risks related to legal proceedings and compliance with anti-corruption legislation; Risks arising from potential future acquisitions; and Exposure to exchange rate, interest rate and credit risks. Any forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of Eni speak only as of the date they are made. Eni does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect any changes in Eni s expectations with regard thereto or any changes in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. The reader should, however, consult any further disclosures Eni may make in documents it files with or furnishes to the SEC and Consob. 2

Eni 2014-17 strategy 2014-17 4YP 2018-2021 COMPANY POSITIONED FOR A LOWER SCENARIO TRANSFORMATION into a fully integrated O&G UPSTREAM enhancement MID-DOWNSTREAM restructuring FIT to GROW FINANCIAL resilience 4

UPSTREAM enhancement FASTER Dual EXPLORATION Cash in from disposal since 2013 $ 10.3 bln Industry* TIME TO MARKET years 4 5 Eni 2 2.5 Integrated MODEL From discovery to FID From FID to Start-Up MORE EFFICIENT NPV of Projects from exploration since 2014 $ 8.8 bln 110 UPSTREAM CAPEX CASH NEUTRALITY $/bbl Production RECORD kboed 1598 1816 70 30 2013 2017 5 2014 2017 * Source: Woodmackenzie

MID-DOWNSTREAM restructuring G&P Structurally underlying positive Long-term contracts alignment to market level Take or Pay recovery Cost reduction Cumulative CFFO bln 1.8 2017 6.1 R&M Production efficiency Logistics rationalization 2 sites converted to bio- plants Halved refining breakeven -3.7 CHEMICALS Consolidation of industrial footprint Focus on differentiated products International development 2012-14 2015-17 CFFO 2015-2017 vs 2012-2014 ~ 12 bln 6

Change since 2013 (% points) FINANCIAL discipline GEARING DIVIDEND CASH NEUTRALITY* $/bbl WHILE PRESERVING BUSINESS GROWTH 18% Peers adopting scrip dividend 114 14% 10% 6% 57 Dual Exploration effect 39 including dual exploration model 2% -2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Gearing % 1 2 3 4 5 2014 2017 2017 7 Peers: Total, Chevron, Statoil, BP, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Exxon * Organic coverage of Capex and Dividend through CFFO

4 3

Eni strategic evolution BUSINESS INTEGRATION along the value chain UPSTREAM enhancement VALUE GROWTH UPSTREAM-MIDSTREAM UPSTREAM - DOWNSTREAM UPSTREAM - RENEWABLES FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE EFFICIENCY DECARBONIZATION PATH & GREEN ENERGIES DIGITALIZATION & INNOVATION 9

Upstream key targets in the 4YP 3.5% 2 bln CAGR 2017-21 organic boe 4YP expl. resources ~40 22 Upstream CAPEX COVERAGE $/bbl bln 4YP upstream FCF 10

United Arab Emirates - Abu Dhabi deals DIVERSIFYING OUR PORTFOLIO STRENGTHENING ZOHR JV FARM-IN: 5% Lower Zakum 10% Umm Shaif/Nasr UMM SHAIF LOWER ZAKUM NASR FARM OUT 10% to Mubadala 1 BLN BOE 3P/3C equity of which >300 Mln Boe P1 ZOHR JV 50% Eni (operator) 30% Rosneft 10% BP 10% Mubadala 11

Eni net acreage sq km A global range of exploration opportunities North Slope Barents Sea Net Acreage 400,000 km 2 at YE 2017 Mexico offshore Porcupine Basin Morocco offshore Transform Margin Lower Congo Basin Egypt & Levantine Durban Basin Oman offshore Lamu Basin Angoche Basin Myanmar Vietnam East Kalimantan Equity Risked Potential 4YP Spending * * Including G&G costs 10 bln boe 3.5 bln 12 4YP EXPLORATION TARGET 2 BILLION BOE EQUITY

Ramp-ups and start-ups driving growth MAIN ONSTREAM PROJECTS OIL & GAS PRODUCTION kboed 15 MAJOR START-UPS Zohr Jangkrik Complex Nidoco Ph. 2/3 East Hub OCTP Oil Nenè Ph. 2A CAFC Abu Dhabi fields 1816 2018 4% CAGR 2017-2021 3.5% CAGR 2021-2025 3% 2018 2019 2020 OCTP Gas West Hub - Ochigufu Bahr Essalam Ph.2 Wafa Compression Area 1 Mexico Baltim SW (Barakish) West Hub - Vandumbu Trestakk Nenè ph. 2B Smorbukk North Cassiopea KPC Debottlenecking BRN New Pipeline Merakes 2017 2018 2021 2025 base production start-ups/ramp-ups 2021 Melehia deep Ph. 2 13

Key projects Zohr 50% WI 2018: 185 kboed Plateau: 545 kboed @2021 Mexico Area 1 100% WI Start up: 1H 2019 Progress: under FID Plateau: 90 kboed @2022 Great Nooros 75% WI Merakes 85% WI 2018: 210 kboed Progress: ph.3: under FID Plateau: 210 kboed @2018 Start up: 2H 2020 Progress: under FID Plateau: 70 kboed @2023 14 Nenè - Marine XII OCTP 44% WI Start up: 1H 2018 (gas) Progress: 91 % Plateau: 110 kboed @ 2020 * All production levels reported in the slide are gross values (100%) 65% WI 2018: 35 kboed Progress: ph. 2a: 82% Plateau: 54 kboed @ 2021 Coral Johan Castberg 25% WI Start up: 1H 2022 Progress: 10% Plateau: 100 kboed @ 2023 30% WI Start up: 2H 2022 Progress: <5% Plateau: 205 kboed @2024

Value expansion of production growth CASH FLOW PER BARREL $/boe 4YP start up 24.5 17.5 4YP start up 25.2 18 $22/boe @ $70 scenario 16.7 14 @ 2017 scenario legacy 15.8 legacy 15.5 @ $60/bl scenario 2017 2018 2020-21 15 HIGH QUALITY LONG TERM CASH FLOW

The rise of upstream cash flow Upstream CFFO bln 13 11 Upside @ $ 70/bl 9 7 5 Capex Upstream 3 2017 2018 End of plan Brent $/bbl 60 60 60 16 FULL COVERAGE OF DIVIDEND WITH UPSTREAM FCF

Mid-downstream key targets 2 bln 4.7 bln EBIT end of plan Total 4YP FCF 17

Gas & Power - bigger and stronger EBIT bln Gas & LNG Marketing and Power Retail Eni gas e luce 0.3 0.2 FCF 2018-21 2.4 bln 0.8 2017 2018 End of plan Gas & LNG Marketing and Power Retail Integration with upstream Focus on Asia and new markets 2025 contracted volumes: 14 MTPA Redefining relationships with key gas suppliers Maximizing returns from power assets in Italy 2021 clients: 11 mln (+25% vs 2017) Focus on high-growth customertailored services 18

A top player in the LNG market LNG SUPPLY - EQUITY VS THIRD PARTY 2017 2021 30% 70% Equity Third Party LNG contracted volumes 12 MTPA @ 2021 19

R&M leaner and greener EBIT bln Refining Breakeven margin $3/bbl end 2018 Refining Marketing 0.5 0.6 0.9 Deep conversion proprietary technology licensing Asset optimization 2017 2018 End of plan FCF 2018-21 2.1 bln Biofuels Marketing Venice and Gela plants onstream Ecofining proprietary technology 2021: 1 Mton/y green production Feedstock diversification and circular economy Focus on wholesale Digital Transformation and Sustainable Mobility Stable retail market share 20

Versalis an international player EBIT bln 0.5 2017 Scenario effect FCF 2018-21 0.3 0.4 2017 2018 End of plan ~ 300 mln Chemicals Differentiated products Bio- based chemistry Consolidation industrial footprint Strengthening international presence Business integration New products development Focus on high margin products Acquisitions/partnerships on new technologies New industrial platforms from renewable sources Circular economy projects 21

New energy solutions AN INTEGRATED MODEL Capacity end year GWp 5 ~ 1 Synergies with Eni assets and activities International expansion in Eni Countries Solar, Wind and Hybrid Technologies R&D Deployment 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 4YP CAPEX 1.2 Bln 22

Digital transformation 2017 2021 BUILD ON OUR SUCCESSFUL DIGITAL HISTORY DIGITAL ACCELERATION along our value chain Upstream Mid- Downstream Exploration Development Drilling Operations Refining/Chemicals Trading Retail INVESTMENT IN TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATION WITH COMPETENCES SUBSURFACE BIG DATA Enhanced Seismic Imaging & data processing Advanced simulations to speed up design Drones for progress monitoring Advanced Algorithms to reduce NPT events Drilling Automation for repetitive tasks ASSET INTEGRITY Advanced algorithms for asset integrity and production optimization SMART OPERATOR Mobile applications and advanced safety devices for field personnel Blockchain for trading platoform Integrated internal and external information for better decision making Data to offer personalization, up & cross selling New mobility service: car sharing PROPRIETARY ALGORITHMS (SINCE EARLY 2000 S) Green Data Center HPC4 Top 10 World Supercomputer 150+ GLOBAL PROJECTS 23

Digitalisation key targets 2018-2021 DIGITAL SOLUTIONS & ADV. ANALYTICS 100% Operated Wells * 100% Strategic Rotating Machine * 100% Top Value Assets * PRODUCTION COST - 7% DRILLING ADV. ANALYTICS -30% NPT * EXPLORATION PHASE -15% 24 * Operated Assets

4

An effective path to decarbonization 2014-17 4YP 2018-2021 2025 DECARBONIZATION PATH AND GREEN ENERGIES Carbon footprint reduction Low carbon and resilient O&G portfolio Green businesses R&D 26

Carbon footprint reduction Direct Emissions Upstream tco2eq / toe TARGETS @ 2025 2007 2014 2015 2016 2017 2025 GROSS OPERATED 2018-2021 Capex > 550 Mln UPS UNITARY DIRECT EMISSIONS ROUTINE GAS FLARING FUGITIVE EMISSIONS MtCH4-43% vs 2014 zero -80% vs 2014 27

A low carbon and resilient O&G portfolio Avg. breakeven < $30/bl O&G resources % 250 CO2 scenarios $/ton 200 Oil Gas 150 100 50 NEW PROJECTS RESILIENT EVEN IN LOW SCENARIOS PORTFOLIO FOCUSED ON CONVENTIONAL RESOURCES 0 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 CO2 IEA SDS CO2 Eni PROJECTS ROBUST EVEN AT IEA SDS* 28 * SDS: Sustainable Development Scenario

Our green businesses BIO-FUELS BIOBASED-CHEMICALS NEW ENERGY VENEZIA - 2nd fase ongoing Green capacity up to 560 kton/y (from 2021) 2018: GELA green - refinery completion Green capacity up to 720 kton/y P. Torres: JV integrated chemical complex from renewable Total capacity bio-intermediates: 70 kton/y P. Marghera: innovative technology Vegetable Oils Metathesis Natural tyres from guayule: Partnership with for research and technology development on guayule Progetto Italia Installed capacity by 2021: 220 MW Production capacity up to 0.4 TWh/y (from 2022) Africa & Asia (development of Solar PV, Wind and Hybrid projects) Total installed capacity by 2021: 0.7 GW Production capacity up to 2.5 TWh/y (from 2023) 4YP Total investment 4YP Total CO 2 saving* > 1.8 BLN 28 Mton 29 * Includes direct and indirect emissions

Core financial values SHAREHOLDER R E T U R N S SUSTAINABLE G R O W T H FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE 31

CAPEX Plan 2018 capex: ~ 7.7 bln 2018-2021 capex: < 32 bln Other Mid-Downstream 15% 49% >80% Upstream 26% 7% 3% 7% 4% 4% Exploration Development Upstream R&M Energy solutions Prod. optimiz. & stay in business G&P Chemicals 32

Upstream: focus on projects under development Cumulative Net Cash flow IRR $bln 25 15 Dual Exploration benefit not included 16% 18% 5 13% -5-15 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 $50/b $60/b $70/b NCF NCF including dual exp model Anticipated payback BREAKEVEN < $30/bbl 33

Cash flow growth bln 15 10 5 CAPEX CAPEX CAPEX 0 2017 2018 Plan End Underlying operating cash flow @ $60 Underlying operating cash flow @ $70 Working capital change + deferred cash in 2018 from Zohr disposal 34 Data @ 1.17 /$ exchange rate

Reducing cash neutrality $/bl 58 53 @ 4YP /$ exchange rate @ 2018 /$ exchange rate = 1.17 48 2017 2018 end of plan 35

Enhancing our 2017-2020 targets 2017-2020 today 2017-2020 previous plan Business Exploration discoveries 2.6 bln boe 2-3 bln boe Production CAGR LNG sales by 2025 New projects breakeven >3% 3% 14 MTPA 10 MTPA < $ 30/bbl $ 30/bbl Mid-Downstream CFFO Capex Organic free cash flow Disposals 8.3 bln 7.9 bln 31.6 bln 31.4 bln 17.4 bln 14.9 bln 5.5 bln 5-7 bln Financials 36 All figures at the same scenario

Remuneration policy and cash allocation Committed to DIVIDEND POLICY PROGRESSIVE WITH UNDERLYING EARNINGS AND FCF 0.83 in 2018 + 3.75 % vs 2017 Preserving Upside BALANCE SHEET STRENGTH SHARE BUY BACK Leverage target 0.2 0.25 Excess cash distribution 37

Conclusions DEEPER INTEGRATION CAPITAL DISCIPLINE High margin growth in Upstream Sizeable and competitive LNG Sustainable portfolio Mid-downstream upgrade 38 ENHANCED RETURN TO SHAREHOLDERS

Assumptions and sensitivity 4YP Scenario 2018 2019 2020 2021 Brent dated ($/bl) 60 65 70 72 FX avg ($/ ) 1.17 1.18 1.20 1.25 Std. Eni Refining Margin ($/bl) 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 NBP ($/mmbtu) 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.8 PSV ( /kmc) 188 178 171 175 Sensitivity* EBIT adj ( mln) net adj ( mln) FCF ( mln) Brent (-1 $/bl) -310-175 -205 Std. Eni Refining Margin (-1 $/bl) -160-115 -160 Exchange rate $/ (+0.05 $/ ) -310-120 -200 * sensitivity 2018. Sensitivity is applicable for limited variations of prices 40

Main start-ups in the 4YP Main start ups 2018-2021 Country Op Start-up Equity peak in 4 YP kboed Working Interest Liquids/Gas Zohr Egypt yes Achieved 12/2017 200 50% Gas West Hub (Ochigufu) Angola yes Achieved 03/2018 <10 37% Liquids Wafa Compression Libya yes 1H18 25 50% Liquids/Gas OCTP Oil+Gas Ghana yes Oil: 5/17 Gas:1H18 49 44% Liquids/Gas Bahr Essalam Ph. 2 Libya yes 1H18 45 50% Liquids/Gas Mexico Area 1 Mexico yes 1H19 60 100% Liquids Baltim SW (Barakish) Egypt yes 2H19 29 50% Liquids/Gas West Hub (Vandumbu) Angola yes 2H19 <10 37% Liquids Merakes (Jangkrik area) Indonesia yes 2H20 50 85% Gas Cassiopea Italy yes 2H20 16 60% Gas Nenè phase 2B Congo yes 2H20 14 65% Liquids Melehia deep phase 2 Egypt yes 2H21 <10 100% Liquids/Gas 41

Reference TCFD dashboard Recommendation ANNUAL REPORT SUSTAINABILITY REPORT GOVERNANCE Disclose the organization s governance around climate-related risks and opportunities. STRATEGY Disclose the actual and potential impacts of climate-related risks and opportunities on the organization s businesses, strategy, and financial planning where such information is material. RISK MANAGEMENT Disclose how the organization identifies, assesses, and manages climate-related risks. a Key elements a Key elements a Key elements a Disclosure a Disclosure a Disclosure METRICS & TARGETS Disclose the metrics and targets used to assess and manage relevant climate-related risks and opportunities where such information is material. a Key elements a Disclosure 42