Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets April 3, 214 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Fed Balance Sheet 1 Fed Assets 2 Fed Bond Purchases 3 ECB Balance Sheet 4 Bank of England 5 Bank of Japan 6 PBOC Balance Sheet 7 US Treasuries & Agencies Held by Central Banks 8 April 3, 214 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.
Fed Balance Sheet 4.5 4. 3.5 Figure 1. FED S ASSETS* (trillion dollars) FED S LIABILITIES* (trillion dollars) 5. 4.5 4. 3. 3.5 2.5 3. 2. 1.5 1. US Treasuries + Agency Debt + MBS Liquidity Facilities Total 2.5 2. 1.5.5 1...5 2.1 2.7 1.8 2.1 1.5.9.6.3 US Treasury Securities Agency Debt + MBS Reserve Balances with Fed (Depository Institutions Deposits at Fed) 1.8 1.5.9.6.3...8 4.6 1.16 1.12.4 Central Bank Liquidity Swaps 1.8 1.4 Other Loans 1..2. Federal Reserve Notes.96.92.88.84 *Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesdays. Source: Federal Reserve Board..8.76 Page 1 / April 3, 214 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.
4.4 4. Figure 2. FED S ASSETS* (trillion dollars) QE1 B Fed Assets QE2 O QE3 QE4 T 4.4 4. 3.6 3.2 2.8 Total Assets US Treasuries + Agency Debt + MBS 3.6 3.2 2.8 2. 2. 1.6 1.6.8.8.4.4 2.2 2. 1.8 QE1 = Fed buys $4tn in mortgage securities. B = Bernanke speeches at Jackson Hole on 8/27/1 and 8/31/12 set stage for QE2 and QE3. QE2 = Fed buys $6bn in Treasuries. O = Operation Twist from 9/21/11-12/31/12. QE3 = Fed buys $4bn/month in mortgage securities (to infinity and beyond). QE4 = Fed buys $45bn/month in Treasuries until unemployment rate falls to 6.5%. T = Fed starts tapering QE. * Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesdays. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Figure 3. FED S ASSETS* (trillion dollars) QE1 US Treasury Securities B QE2 O QE3 QE4 T 2.2 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1..8.6.4.2. Agency Debt + MBS 1.6 1.4 1..8.6.4.2. QE1 = Fed buys $4tn in mortgage securities. B = Bernanke speeches at Jackson Hole on 8/27/1 and 8/31/12 set stage for QE2 and QE3. QE2 = Fed buys $6bn in Treasuries. O = Operation Twist from 9/21/11-12/31/12. QE3 = Fed buys $4bn/month in mortgage securities (to infinity and beyond). QE4 = Fed buys $45bn/month in Treasuries until unemployment rate falls to 6.5%. T = Fed starts tapering QE. * Average of daily figures for weeks ending Wednesdays. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 2 / April 3, 214 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.
3 25 Figure 4. Fed Bond Purchases FED NET PURCHASES OF US TREASURY & US AGENCY BONDS + MBS (monthly change, billion dollars) 3 25 2 2 15 15 1 1 5 5-5 15 29 21 211 212 213 214 FED NET PURCHASES OF US TREASURY BONDS -5 15 1 1 5 5-5 2 29 21 211 212 213 214 FED NET PURCHASES OF US AGENCY BONDS + MBS -5 2 15 15 1 1 5 5-5 29 21 211 212 213 214 Source: Federal Reserve Board. -5 Page 3 / April 3, 214 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.
ECB Balance Sheet 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 Figure 5. TOTAL ASSETS (billion euros) SELECTED LIABILITIES (billion euros) Euro Area Credit Institutions in Euro Deposit Facility 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 135 125 115 15 95 85 75 65 55 45 35 Lending to Euro Area Credit Institutions in Euro Liabilities to Other Euro Area Residents in Euro 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 8 1 6 Securities of Euro Area Residents in Euro Bank Notes in Circulation 9 4 8 2 General Govt Debt Denominated in Euro 7 6 8 11 6 4 2 Foreign Reserves Including Gold Claims on Euro Area Residents in Foreign Currency Miscellaneous Liabilities* 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 *Total liabilities minus sum of lending to euro area credit institutions in euro, liabilities to other euro area residents in euro, and bank notes in circulation. Source: European Central Bank. Page 4 / April 3, 214 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.
Bank of England 45 425 4 375 35 325 3 275 25 225 2 175 15 125 1 75 Figure 6. UK: TOTAL ASSETS (billion pounds) RESERVE BALANCES 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 2 BONDS & OTHER SECURITIES ACQUIRED VIA MARKET TRANSACTIONS SHORT-TERM OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS 1 8 15 6 4 1 2 5 2 18 SHORT-TERM OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS OTHER LIABILITIES 15 16 14 12 Short-Term Open ket Operations 1 1 8 Longer term reverse repo 6 4 2 5 Source: Bank of England. Page 5 / April 3, 214 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.
15 Figure 7. JAPAN: RESERVE BALANCES AT BOJ (trillion yen, reserve adjusted) Bank of Japan Z 15 1 1 5 5 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy. Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy. Source: Bank of Japan. 1 Figure 8. JAPAN: INTEREST RATES (percent) Z 1 8 1-Year Government Bond Yield 8 6 Bank of Japan Overnight Rate 6 4 4 2 2 4/4-2 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 Z = Zero Interest Rate Policy. Note: Blue shade is Quantitative Easing Policy. Source: Bank of Japan. -2 Page 6 / April 3, 214 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.
PBOC Balance Sheet 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.2 2.7 Figure 9. PBOC ASSETS (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) Jan 5.7 5.2 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.7.7.7 Total Assets (5.4) Foreign Exchange Assets (4.4) Nongold International Reserves Held by China (IMF data) (3.8).2 22 23 24 25 26 27 215 Source: People s Bank of China and IMF..2 85 8 Figure 1. PBOC ASSETS (percent) Jan 85 8 75 Foreign Exchange Held/Total PBOC Assets 75 7 7 65 65 6 6 55 55 5 5 45 45 4 4 35 22 23 24 25 26 27 215 Source: People s Bank of China and IMF. 35 Page 7 / April 3, 214 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.
34 32 US Treasuries & Agencies Held by Central Banks Figure 11. US TREASURIES HELD BY FED & FOREIGN OFFICIAL ACCOUNTS (billion dollars) 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 Held by Fed Foreign Official Dollar Reserves* 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 6 4 * Held by foreign official institutions at the Fed. Average of week ending Wednesday. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Table H.4.1. 155 Figure 12. US AGENCIES HELD BY FED & FOREIGN OFFICIAL ACCOUNTS (billion dollars) 155 15 15 55 55 Held by Fed Foreign Official Dollar Reserves* 7/1 5 5 * Held by foreign official institutions at the Fed. Average of week ending Wednesday. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Table H.4.1. Page 8 / April 3, 214 / Global Economic Briefing: Central Bank Balance Sheets www.
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