Economic Stimulus Packages and Steel: A Summary Steel Committee Meeting 8-9 June 2009 Sources of information on stimulus packages Questionnaire to Steel Committee members, full participants and observers A total of 23 responses received Information collected from other sources on economic stimulus: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim edition, March 2009 DSTI-wide questionnaire on the Integration of Long-Term Growth Concerns in Policy Responses to the Financial Crisis Media sources 1
Format of the questionnaire The impact of the economic recession on the steel industry: Production, consumption, prices, employment, and trade Main features of the stimulus packages Size, timing, broader objectives Effects of the stimulus on steel Indirect: support for steel-using sectors (infrastructure/construction, automotive, other industries) Generally available measures (e.g., labour market measures for industry) and steelspecific provisions in the packages Steel-specific measures (direct government support/bailouts, etc.) 1. Impact of recession on steel industry Production declines (%) 2008 (October-December) 2009 (January-March) India Portugal South Korea New Zealand Austria Slovenia Greece China Japan Finland Egypt Switzerland Turkey Australia Italy Germany **WORLD AVG France Brazil Argentina Norway Chinese Taipei United Kingdom Sweden Spain Mexico Czech Republic Hungary Netherlands Russia Poland Belgium United States Slovakia Canada Bulgaria South Africa Romania Ukraine Luxembourg -80-60 -40-20 0 20 China Portugal New Zealand India Norway Turkey Greece **WORLD AVG South Korea Chinese Taipei Egypt South Africa Slovenia Switzerland Russia Luxembourg Ukraine Germany France Italy Slovakia Argentina Brazil Austria Spain Japan Poland Czech Republic United Kingdom Mexico Netherlands Hungary Finland Sweden Bulgaria Australia United States Canada Romania Belgium -80-60 -40-20 0 20 2
Consumption: June-December 2008 Across Europe, some countries saw consumption fall by 20-50% or more between June and December 2008, some by even more In North America, U.S. consumption fell from 9.1 mt in June 2008 to 5.2 mt in December. Chinese consumption down from 524 mt in June 2008 to 419 mt in December Chinese Taipei down from 15.9 mt (annualized) to 7.6 mt Russian consumption down from 4.1 mt to 2.9 mt. Most economies project consumption weakness in the first half of 2009 Prices: June to December 2008 Europe: declines of 20-50% Russia: export prices down 60% Turkey: export prices down 46% Chinese Taipei: 50% fall in domestic prices United States: domestic price down 46% 3
Employment North America is experiencing relatively pronounced effects in steel industry employment In Europe, employment has declined more gradually Turkey: employment relatively stable at end of 2008, but expected to fall by 10% by June 2009. In China, employment has fallen by 80,000 to 3.5 million Trade developments China: net exports of steel declined sharply, especially in the second half of 2008 Europe: many countries experienced falling export volumes in the last few months of 2008 United States: exports peaked in 2008Q3, but then fell 28% in Q4 4
2. Main features of stimulus packages Most stimulus plans can be divided into three main areas: Increased public investment (infrastructure, housing, education, health) Stimulus aimed at the consumer (through a combination of reduction in income taxes, expansions of social security programs, transfers of cash, etc.) Stimulus aimed at firms (corporate tax cuts, credit guarantees, support for retaining or hiring staff) Timing of the packages: For most countries, the time-frame of the fiscal packages is two years (2009-2010). However, the period is shorter for countries such as Japan, Italy, Norway, Turkey, Argentina, Chile, Indonesia, India, Indonesia, Singapore, and Vietnam, whose packages mainly cover 2009. Some economies (e.g., Chinese Taipei, Romania, and Thailand) have longer time-frames of 3-4 years. Approx. 50 economies have announced stimulus packages A total of USD 2.6 trillion Largest absolute spending in: United States, China, Japan, Germany and Russia, each allocating more than USD 100 billion Absolute size of stimulus packages (USD billion) United States China Japan Germany Russia Canada Saudi Arabia Spain Mexico Thailand Australia S.Korea United Kingdom Chinese Taipei Brazil France Malaysia Kazakhstan Singapore Netherlands Argentina Sweden Romania Turkey Italy Denmark Finland Belgium Philippines Czech Republic Indonesia New Zealand Poland Greece Austria India Chile South Africa Norway Egypt Switzerland Portugal Luxembourg Vietnam Slovenia 19 2638 14 17 18 19 13 13 9 10 11 13 13 7 89 5 67 5 55 4 44 3 33 1 22 1 108 101 57 60 62 43 46 4754 253 585 787 5
Size of stimulus packages (% of GDP) Thailand China Kazakhstan Saudi Arabia Malaysia Singapore Chinese Taipei Romania Russia United States Japan Mexico Australia S.Korea New Zealand Canada Argentina Philippines Luxembourg Spain Finland Czech Republic Germany Sweden Denmark Chile Slovenia Egypt Belgium Netherlands Turkey United Kingdom Greece South Africa Indonesia Brazil Vietnam Austria Poland Portugal France Norway Switzerland Italy 1.7 1.82.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.13.5 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.24.5 4.5 5.0 5.15.56.0 7.58.1 6.5 6.3 12.5 12.9 13.3 17.3 3. Importance of stimulus packages for steel Support for steel-using sectors: Support for infrastructure and construction Support for automobile consumers and producers Measures to promote other steel-using industries General measures (available for alls sectors): Labour-market assistance Promotion of R&D Tax and financial measures Steel-specific/provisions linked to steel Trade-related Industry revival plan Buy local steel 6
Steel-using sectors Automobile Infrastructure Housing Others Australia X X X Austria X X Belgium X X Canada X X X Coast Guard vessels Czech Republic X X X Denmark X X Finland X X France X X X Germany X X X Greece Hungary Energy-efficient appliances, Italy X X X furniture Japan X X X Household appliances S.Korea X X X Energy-efficient household Luxembourg X X X appliances Energy-efficient household Mexico X X X appliances Provisions linked to steel Netherlands X X New Zealand X X Norway X X X Poland X X Portugal X X Slovak Republic X X Spain X X X Sweden X X X Switzerland X X Turkey X X White goods United Kingdom X X X United States X X X Buy domestic steel Steel-using sectors Automobile Infrastructure Housing Others Washing machines and other Argentina X X electrical appliances, bicycles, computers Construction materials, electronic Brazil X X X appliances Chile X X China X X X Electronic appliances Chinese Taipei X X X Electronic appliances Egypt X India X X X Provisions linked to steel Steel industry revival plan, steel trade-related measures Steelmaking raw material trade measures Indonesia X Buy domestic steel Kazakhstan X Malaysia X X X Philippines X Romania X X Russia X X X Defense Steel trade-related measures Saudi Arabia X Singapore X Slovenia X South Africa X X X Thailand X X Ukraine Vietnam X X 7
Infrastructure Most infrastructure projects focus on building and improving roads, bridges, railways, waterways, and airports. Investment in education and health Energy efficiency and renewable energy Examples of infrastructure plans in Asia Economy Total fiscal stimulus (2008-2010) Public investment Japan USD 253 billion 2 infrastructure for cooperation between regions and for the enhancement of the competitiveness of regions; disaster management and safety Revolution in transportation and infrastructure; development of measures S.Korea USD 42.7 billion Building infrastructure aimed at revitalizing regional economies such as culture institution, erecting more dams, repairing riverbanks etc. China USD 585 billion Speeding up rural infrastructure construction; accelerating the expansion of railways; airport constructions in western province; upgrading power grids; greater spending on health and education in rural areas; enhancing the construction of sewage and waste treatment facilities. Chinese Taipei USD 25.5 billion 3 Stimulus package to invest an additional TWD500 billion (US$15.2 billion) in public infrastructure over the next four years. The additional infrastructure funding will be directed in part to the i-taiwan 12 Infrastructure Projects. The 12 projects (announced before the crisis and valued at US$133 billion over eight years) fall under four categories: transportation network, industrial development, urban and rural development, and environmental protection. 8
Distribution of China s fiscal stimulus Infrastructure 38% Post-earthquake reconstruction 25% Technology advances and industry restructuring 9% Rural civilian projects 9% Civilian projects 10% Social welfare 4% Sustainable environment 5% Effects of public investment on steel Most respondents noted that public investment in infrastructure would provide significant support to demand for steel China: public investment adds 80 mt of steel consumption Germany: 0.5 mt in 2009 and 1.6 mt in 2010 9
Effects of public investment on steel The proportion of stimulus being spent on infrastructure appears to be much higher in developing economies The total direct impact of public investment spending could be on the order of 130 million tons over the next two years, most in China steel use linked Tons of steel used per USD 1 bn Total spending Potential impact o to investment of investment (PPP) on infrastructure steel consumptio Advanced countries 348 mmt 44,251 USD 378.1 billion 16.7 mmt Emerging and developing economies 691 mmt 80,557 USD 565.8 billion 112.8 mmt - of which China 326 mmt 123,186 USD 464.5 billion 100.9 mmt - other developing and emerging 365 mmt 58,061 USD 101.3 billion 11.9 mmt World 1039 mmt 66,867 USD 943.9 billion 129.5 mmt Measures to support the automotive sector Reductions in taxes, especially for lower-emitting vehicles Improvements in credit availability for purchases of cars Vehicle scrapping schemes 10
Selected scrapping schemes in Europe Country Incentive Vehicle age Austria EUR 1,500 > 13 years France EUR 1,000 > 10 years Germany EUR 2,500 > 9 years Italy EUR 1,500-5,000 > 9 years Luxembourg EUR 1,500-1,750 > 10 years Portugal EUR 1,000/ 1,250 >10 years / >15 years Romania EUR 900 > 10 years Slovak Republic EUR 1,000-1,500 > 10 years Spain Interest-free loan up to EUR 10,000 > 10 years/250,000 km United Kingdom GBP 2000 > 10 years General measures available to all sectors including steel Labour market measures Short-time working Worker retraining Reduction in fiscal charge for night and team work Tax and financial measures Abolition of tax on credit insurance Elimination of tariffs on imported machinery and equipment Provision of export risk insurance R&D and environmental measures Reduced fiscal charges on R&D activity 11
Steel-specific/provisions closely linked to steel Changes in duties on imports/exports Buy local steel provisions In China, the Adjustment and Revival Plan for the steel industry Promote domestic steel use Limit the capacity expansion Increase the industry concentration ratio Provide support to steel producers that consolidate, develop high value added products reduce emissions, and promote the use of domestic iron ore Conclusions Few direct steel-specific measures in the stimulus packages The industry is benefiting indirectly from support to infrastructure, automobile and household appliance sectors Emerging and developing economies are investing more in infrastructure, and may see steel demand recover earlier than elsewhere 12