Sensex (36162) / Nifty (11086) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart Finally, after few days of relentless run, our markets chose to catch some breath. This was mainly on the back of muted global cues and Brent Crude again inching closer to the $70 mark. During the day, the Nifty remained in a small band of nearly half a percent and eventually ended tad above previous day s close. The Nifty showed some respite after adding 300 points in three straight sessions and more importantly, after reaching the near term junction of 11100 (161% price extension of the rally seen during 2008 10). Of late, there has been not much respect to any level but since 161% is considered as an important ratio as per the Fibonacci series and mainly because the major event is around the corner now, it s important to highlight this point. It would be important to see how market behaves in next 4 5 trading sessions and today being the January series expiry, traders would keep a close watch on the trading range of 11100 11000. As far as trading strategy for next few days is concerned, we reiterate that traders should look to take some money off the table ahead of the major event. Yes, there could be some stock specific moves seen during this period. One can keep focusing on such propositions with a proper exit strategy. Even yesterday also there were some noteworthy moves from individual stocks amongst which the PSU banking basket clearly stands out. At the same times, some decent profit booking was seen in the broader market and hence, one needs to be very selective as it would now be a daunting task to find a good trade set up. Key Levels Support 1 11000 Resistance 1 11100 Support 2 10994 Resistance 2 11125 Nifty Bank Outlook - (27399) Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart Yesterday, Nifty Bank Index traded in a narrow range and ended flat with negligible gain tad near 27400 levels. It was a breather day for the Bank Index as the lead indicators are in the deep overbought territory. However, the stocks within the sector were quite active yesterday as the PSU Banks continued their positive momentum from the previous session as the PSU Bank index ended with gains of 3.49%. Being an F&O expiry session today, we may continue to see stock-specific momentum in today's session too. As far as the Bank Index is concerned it may see another sideways session with resistance placed around 27540-27620 whereas support placed around 27160-27030. Key Levels Support 1 27160 Resistance 1 27540 Support 2 27030 Resistance 2 27620
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has increased by 1.93% BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 3.31% as market closed at 11086 levels. The Nifty January future closed with a discount of 2.80 points against a premium of 1.75 points in last trading session. The February series closed at a premium of 19.40 points. The INDIA VIX has increased from 16.23 to 18.04. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has decreased from 1.89 to 1.81 level. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are JPASSOCIAT, IDBI, INDIGO, GAIL and SHREECEM. Nifty Vs Views FIIs continue their buying streak in cash market segment, they bought to the tune of Rs. 776 crores. While, they were buyers of Rs. 1258 crores in index futures with good amount of rise in, indicating formation of long positions in previous trading session. On options front, they were net sellers of Rs. 1113 crores with marginal change in. In call options, we saw decent addition in 11100-11400 strikes (except for 11200 wherein we saw some unwinding). While, 11000-11100 puts continued adding fresh positions; followed by unwinding in OTM strikes 10200-10950. Maximum concentration of for January series is placed at 11200 call and 10500 put option. As far as FIIs activities are concerned, we witnessed mixed position in index futures throughout January series. However, majority of the positions formed were on the short side, resulting their Index Futures Long Short Ratio declining below 50% after quite some time. At the same time, they have been forming positive bets in other F&O space by adding good amount of long positions in stock futures and index call options along with writing in index put options. After consistent selling for last five series, FIIs have been pouring liquidity through cash market segment in current series with a net buying of Rs. 7805 crores. Considering above data points, we would advise traders avoiding any bearish bets unless we see meaningful change in F&O data. Historical Volatility HV AMARAJABAT 40.46 BHARTIARTL 44.72 HEXAWARE 44.78 MCDOWELL-N 48.46 NIITTECH 64.20 Gainers OFSS 148800 24.31 4287.40 1.26 M&MFIN 8617500 23.79 490.35-3.63 AMARAJABAT 2370900 20.02 875.60 6.89 MCDOWELL-N 2469250 15.06 3487.85-6.72 BHARTIARTL 53536400 14.30 459.50-6.66 SYNDIBANK 29943000 14.13 82.30 2.23 FORTIS 52993500 13.69 153.85 2.56 IDEA 68446000 13.62 93.90-5.33 Losers ICIL 4710000-19.97 111.15-4.39 JSWENERGY 24225000-17.15 89.55-1.10 DHFL 25596000-14.65 578.85-5.92 JINDALSTEL 28089000-13.41 276.50-5.22 ESCORTS 2783000-13.33 822.75 1.60 TATAPOWER 76338000-11.68 91.80-0.60 VGUARD 3558000-10.02 232.85-2.54 JETAIRWAYS 5896800-9.85 774.35-2.71 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.81 1.11 BANKNIFTY 1.43 0.82 RELIANCE 0.51 0.42 INFY 1.07 0.31 TATAMOTORS 0.36 0.55
FII Statistics for January 24, 2018 Turnover on January 24, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 6470.43 5212.55 1257.89 356941 30687.75 7.64 106027.09 107140.29 (1113.20) 1049165 90437.46 (0.70) 38641.10 39288.49 (647.39) 1047528 80474.33 2.74 9716.41 9645.56 70.86 130723 10519.67 3.09 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 373626 34307.82 3.70 8196533 765147.78 1.50 2103514 161966.82 21.49 984700 79982.51 1.60 Total 160855.03 161286.88 (431.84) 2584357 212119.21 1.96 TOTAL 11658373 1041404.92 4.25 Nifty Spot = 11086 Lot Size = 75 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 11100 27.15 Sell 11200 4.80 22.35 77.65 11122.35 Buy 11100 42.30 Sell 11000 12.15 30.15 69.85 11069.85 Buy 11100 27.15 Sell 11300 1.65 25.50 174.50 11125.50 Buy 11100 42.30 Sell 10900 4.40 37.90 162.10 11062.10 Buy 11200 4.80 Sell 11300 1.65 3.15 96.85 11203.15 Buy 11000 12.15 Sell 10900 4.40 7.75 92.25 10992.25 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (January Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 420 434 443 458 467 AMBUJACEM 256 258 262 264 268 ASIANPAINT 1,129 1,140 1,156 1,167 1,183 AUROPHARMA 641 650 656 665 672 AXISBANK 596 602 612 618 628 BAJAJ-AUTO 3,250 3,296 3,323 3,369 3,396 BAJFINANCE 1,678 1,709 1,728 1,758 1,777 BPCL 469 475 479 484 488 BHARTIARTL 435 447 467 479 499 INFRATEL 335 339 342 346 350 BOSCHLTD 19,611 19,671 19,760 19,819 19,909 CIPLA 607 613 618 624 629 COALINDIA 282 288 293 300 305 DRREDDY 2,474 2,517 2,566 2,609 2,658 EICHERMOT 25,838 26,121 26,585 26,869 27,333 GAIL 460 473 483 496 507 HCLTECH 968 993 1,017 1,042 1,066 HDFCBANK 1,941 1,949 1,959 1,968 1,977 HDFC 1,864 1,888 1,904 1,927 1,943 HEROMOTOCO 3,582 3,614 3,632 3,664 3,682 HINDALCO 252 256 260 263 268 HINDPETRO 378 384 391 396 403 HINDUNILVR 1,321 1,343 1,358 1,380 1,395 IBULHSGFIN 1,320 1,341 1,375 1,396 1,431 ICICIBANK 347 350 355 357 362 IOC 385 388 390 393 395 INDUSINDBK 1,687 1,702 1,720 1,736 1,754 INFY 1,138 1,162 1,191 1,215 1,245 ITC 274 278 280 284 286 KOTAKBANK 1,065 1,073 1,078 1,086 1,091 LT 1,380 1,391 1,400 1,411 1,420 LUPIN 923 941 951 970 980 M&M 741 748 760 767 778 MARUTI 9,252 9,344 9,432 9,523 9,611 NTPC 170 172 173 175 177 ONGC 206 209 210 213 214 POWERGRID 194 195 196 197 198 RELIANCE 951 959 970 978 989 SBIN 311 320 326 336 341 SUNPHARMA 565 576 586 597 607 TCS 2,996 3,085 3,172 3,262 3,349 TATAMOTORS 394 399 408 412 421 TATASTEEL 743 753 767 776 790 TECHM 572 587 600 616 628 ULTRACEMCO 4,215 4,249 4,309 4,343 4,403 UPL 793 809 819 834 844 VEDANTA 332 336 342 346 351 WIPRO 305 310 317 321 328 YESBANK 352 358 362 369 373 ZEEL 580 592 601 613 623
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