Sensex (32923) / Nifty (10094) Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart Trading week began on a flat note; but, it was merely a formality to match the opening cues with the global bourses. Immediately, our markets got into their own groove and resumed its Friday s corrective mode. The selling intensified as the day progressed, resulting into a close below the 10100 mark for the first time since December 06, 2017. Recently, the 200-day SMA level of 10140 acted as a sheet anchor and after seeing a small relief rally, our markets started correcting from the resistance zone of 10400 10450. Due to yesterday s sell off, we can see a breakdown below this key long-term moving average as well, which certainly does not augur well for our markets. Now, it s just a matter of time that we would see Nifty even sliding below 10033 to enter the sub-10000 territory. We would continue with our recent commentary that in-between we may see some relief rallies and hence, one should avoid taking time targets. So, whether a breach of this support would happen in this move or after a small breather that time will confirm. One should remain with the near term trend and should avoid doing any kind of bottom fishing. For the coming session, 10140 10224 would be seen as immediate hurdles. Momentum traders are advised to keep a close track of 10033. If index manages to trade below it then expect decent downside in the March series itself. But, in case, if index fails to do so, we may see some breather before violating this important junction. One should avoid taking undue risks and should follow strict stop losses. Key Levels Support 1 10033 Resistance 1 10140 Support 2 10000 Resistance 2 10224 Nifty Bank Outlook - (24245) The Nifty Bank index continued the fall and corrected by another percentage in yesterday's session. As mentioned in our previous report, the index has continued with the formation of 'Lower Top Lower Bottom' structure on the daily chart post the recent pullback move. Hence, the short-term trend is negative and unless there is any reversal, traders should avoid bottom fishing. In near term, we expect the index to re-test the recent low around 24050, which if breached should drag the index towards the 38.2% retracement of the uptrend placed around 23800-23850.On the flipside, 24500 and 24700 are now seen as immediate resistances. Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart Key Levels Support 1 24050 Resistance 1 24500 Support 2 23800 Resistance 2 24700
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 1.63% BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 4.77% as market closed at 10094.25 levels. The Nifty February future closed with a premium of 28.55 points against a premium of 37.35 points in last trading session. The April series closed at a premium of 64 points. The INDIA VIX has increased from 15.22 to 15.82. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has decreased from 1.09 to 1.04 level. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are GODREJCP, HDIL, DHFL, TORNTPHARM and MFSL. Nifty Vs Views Despite yesterday's fall, FIIs were net buyers in cash market segment to the tune of Rs. 292 crores. While, they sold marginally in index futures with rise in open interest, indicating blend of long and short formation in previous trading session. In index options front, they were net sellers of Rs. 400 crores with good amount of rise in open interest. As far as Nifty options activities are concerned, we saw huge open interest addition in 10100 & 10200 call options, some build-up was also seen in out the money strike 10400 and 10500 strikes. On the flip side, 9900-10100 put options added good amount of fresh positions, followed by unwinding in 10200 strike. Maximum open interest concentration is still firmly placed in 10500 call and 10000 put options. Yesterday index extended its losses and closed below the support zone of 10100-10150 levels. But, we hardly saw any relevant shorting from FIIs desk. However, they hold majority of short positions in index futures segment. Considering above data, we believe market may soon correct below 10000 mark; thus, one should avoid bottom fishing and prefer adding shorts on bounce back. Gainers AMBUJACEM 19272500 40.29 231.85-1.82 AJANTPHARM 753500 15.66 1392.25-0.92 BALRAMCHIN 18266500 11.83 82.20-5.30 BPCL 11246400 10.76 431.00-3.56 ORIENTBANK 17466000 8.70 95.30-5.97 RCOM 124628000 8.43 22.80-1.72 SRF 533500 8.32 1882.80 0.17 BANKBARODA 66700000 7.81 133.85-7.40 Losers NIITTECH 1365000-13.33 884.85-4.63 IDBI 44310000-11.10 73.85-6.99 SAIL 102840000-9.67 69.20-5.27 RAMCOCEM 936800-8.59 746.05 0.24 JPASSOCIAT 192134000-7.92 19.55-6.68 CANFINHOME 5898750-6.74 531.95-2.04 MARICO 4893200-6.41 303.35 0.26 CHOLAFIN 438000-6.21 1442.50-1.68 Historical Volatility HV NMDC 49.94 HCLTECH 33.27 BATAINDIA 29.19 BERGEPAINT 29.05 BANKBARODA 62.98 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.04 0.80 BANKNIFTY 0.99 0.81 TCS 0.26 0.27 SUNPHARMA 0.39 0.56 PNB 0.77 0.54
FII Statistics for March 19, 2018 Turnover on March 19, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 3034.89 3066.08 (31.19) 293136 23035.39 1.73 75762.52 76162.41 (399.89) 937902 73697.65 7.63 8256.61 8580.13 (323.52) 1143088 77964.49 0.34 6120.55 6210.93 (90.37) 114278 7831.72 3.73 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 326487 27278.90-6.86 5965386 513631.71 10.10 698352 47632.59-12.76 508782 36693.07-4.81 Total 93174.58 94019.55 (844.97) 2488404 182529.26 3.30 TOTAL 7499007 625236.27 6.16 Nifty Spot = 10094.25 Lot Size = 75 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 10200 63.25 Sell 10300 32.75 30.50 69.50 10230.50 Buy 10200 142.45 Sell 10100 91.05 51.40 48.60 10148.60 Buy 10200 63.25 Sell 10400 15.65 47.60 152.40 10247.60 Buy 10200 142.45 Sell 10000 57.60 84.85 115.15 10115.15 Buy 10300 32.75 Sell 10400 15.65 17.10 82.90 10317.10 Buy 10100 91.05 Sell 10000 57.60 33.45 66.55 10066.55 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (March Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 364 356 364 372 380 AMBUJACEM 231 228 232 236 240 ASIANPAINT 1,103 1,092 1,108 1,118 1,134 AUROPHARMA 573 568 573 578 583 AXISBANK 519 516 521 525 530 BAJAJ-AUTO 2,849 2,821 2,871 2,899 2,949 BAJFINANCE 1,632 1,606 1,653 1,678 1,724 BPCL 431 425 435 442 452 BHARTIARTL 400 390 406 415 431 INFRATEL 325 318 328 335 345 BOSCHLTD 17,515 17,295 17,686 17,907 18,298 CIPLA 560 554 561 566 572 COALINDIA 272 268 274 278 284 DRREDDY 2,120 2,098 2,134 2,156 2,192 EICHERMOT 27,403 27,045 27,660 28,018 28,633 GAIL 442 437 442 448 453 HCLTECH 927 910 937 953 980 HDFCBANK 1,847 1,840 1,850 1,857 1,867 HDFC 1,775 1,760 1,783 1,798 1,822 HEROMOTOCO 3,515 3,488 3,518 3,546 3,577 HINDALCO 215 210 217 222 229 HINDPETRO 352 347 357 363 373 HINDUNILVR 1,309 1,302 1,310 1,317 1,325 IBULHSGFIN 1,188 1,175 1,194 1,206 1,225 ICICIBANK 295 291 295 299 304 IOC 178 174 180 183 188 INDUSINDBK 1,719 1,710 1,722 1,730 1,742 INFY 1,147 1,133 1,157 1,171 1,194 ITC 259 258 260 261 264 KOTAKBANK 1,049 1,041 1,053 1,061 1,074 LT 1,280 1,266 1,279 1,292 1,305 LUPIN 767 760 766 773 779 M&M 743 738 744 748 754 MARUTI 8,774 8,718 8,759 8,814 8,855 NTPC 167 164 166 169 170 ONGC 177 176 177 178 179 POWERGRID 194 193 194 195 197 RELIANCE 896 889 898 904 913 SBIN 248 245 249 252 257 SUNPHARMA 498 493 501 505 513 TCS 2,831 2,818 2,833 2,846 2,861 TATAMOTORS 336 331 337 341 346 TATASTEEL 575 565 583 594 612 TECHM 610 599 618 629 648 ULTRACEMCO 3,972 3,933 3,999 4,039 4,105 UPL 702 694 708 716 730 VEDANTA 307 303 308 313 318 WIPRO 289 285 291 295 300 YESBANK 305 299 308 313 322 ZEEL 566 562 568 572 578
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