Young People in South Africa 19 June 2015 Risenga Maluleke DDG: Statistical Collections and Outreach Statistics South Africa
Outline of Presentation Stats SA Macro Trends in Economy South African Income Distribution Education Employment
Put use at the centre S Statistics are numerical facts for statecraft Use T Transparency is a pre-audit to ensure predictability T R A Accountability is taking responsibility and accepting consequences Results allow parties to read the same facts Transformation is action in unison to drive change for the better
Invest in learning and growth Businesses processes Statistical products In space Outcome: Evidence for decisions What is our path Strategy map Increased use of statistical information as evidence in: Planning Policy development Monitoring & Evaluation Decisionmaking Finance Manufacturing Mining Employment Trade Population Utilities Agriculture Transport Construction Education Service Delivery Dwelling Frame Statistical production Stakeholder management Governance & Administration Organisation Technology & Infrastructure People
Macro Trends in SA Economy
Q1_2008 Q2_2008 Q3_2008 Q4_2008 Q1_2009 Q2_2009 Q3_2009 Q4_2009 Q1_2010 Q2_2010 Q3_2010 Q4_2010 Q1_2011 Q2_2011 Q3_2011 Q4_2011 Q1_2012 Q2_2012 Q3_2012 Q4_2012 Q1_2013 Q2_2013 Q3_2013 Q4_2013 Q1_2014 Q2_2014 Q3_2014 Q4_2014 120.0 115.0 The Economy is Rebounding but at a pace that is not only too slow but too low to keep up with current and future demands especially economic redress. Mining (the blue graph) especially is volatile with deeper downward strokes 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 Total Value Added at 2010 prices in Primary Sector, 2010=100 Total Value Added at 2010 prices in Secondary Sector, 2010=100 Total Value Added at 2010 prices in Tertiary Sector, 2010=100 Total Value Added at 2010 prices, 2010=100
Q1_2008 Q2_2008 Q3_2008 Q4_2008 Q1_2009 Q2_2009 Q3_2009 Q4_2009 Q1_2010 Q2_2010 Q3_2010 Q4_2010 Q1_2011 Q2_2011 Q3_2011 Q4_2011 Q1_2012 Q2_2012 Q3_2012 Q4_2012 Q1_2013 Q2_2013 Q3_2013 Q4_2013 Q1_2014 Q2_2014 Q3_2014 Q4_2014 115.0 113.0 Employability is Making Steady Comeback to almost 15 million employed currently from 2010 where almost a million jobs were lost between then and 2008. But youth unemployment remains 75% of total unemployment shown in subsequent slides 111.0 109.0 107.0 105.0 103.0 101.0 99.0 97.0 95.0 Employment in Primary Sector, 2010=100 Employment in Secondary Sector, 2010=100 Employment in Tertiary Sector, 2010=100 Total Employment, 2010=100
Q1_2008 Q2_2008 Q3_2008 Q4_2008 Q1_2009 Q2_2009 Q3_2009 Q4_2009 Q1_2010 Q2_2010 Q3_2010 Q4_2010 Q1_2011 Q2_2011 Q3_2011 Q4_2011 Q1_2012 Q2_2012 Q3_2012 Q4_2012 Q1_2013 Q2_2013 Q3_2013 Q4_2013 Q1_2014 Q2_2014 Q3_2014 Q4_2014 130.0 125.0 Employee Remuneration is Resilient and on an upward trend across all sectors, yet restive industrial and labour relations persist 120.0 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 Employee Compensation in Primary Sector at 2010 prices, 2010=100 Employee Compensation in Secondary Sector at 2010 prices, 2010=100 Employee Compensation in Tertiary Sector at 2010 prices, 2010=100 Total Employee Compensation at 2010 prices, 2010=100
SA Income Distribution
Education
Reasons provided why 7-18 years olds are not attending school, 2012 30.0 25.0 20.0 26.1 22.2 22% of Females stated family commitments against less 1% for Males 15.0 14.2 10.0 9.9 8.6 8.5 5.0 0.0 4.8 4.7 0.9
Percentage of persons aged 18 to 29 attending university by population group 2,8% 3,4% 12,7% 15,6% 2002 Black African Coloured Indian / Asian White 3,4% 3,0% 13,1% 23,3% 2014 The percentage of Blacks and Coloureds at tertiary between 2002 and 2014 hardly changed
No income Education level zero income, age & level of education 80% 70% 60% No schooling 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 20 30 40 50 60 70 80+ Age Grade 11 Grade 12 Diploma Bachelors degree
Employment Trends in terms of age Adults and Youth
What is the labour market? Total population All ages ILO hierarchy Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA. 3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two groups at the same time Labour market 15 64 yrs Working age 15 64 yrs 1.Employed Not employed 2. Unemployed 3. Not economically active (including discouraged job-seekers) THE SOUTH AFRICA I KNOW, THE HOME I UNDERSTAND
Working age population by Q1:2015 Youth 19,7 million ( yrs) 35,8 million people of working age in South Africa (15 64 yrs) Adults 16,1 million (35-64 yrs) 9,9 million Labour force 6,3 million Employed Youth unemployment almost twice as large as adult unemployment 11,1 million Labour force 9,2 million Employed 3,6 million Unemployed 9,8 million Not economically active 2,4 million Discouraged 1,5 million Youth 866 thousand Adults 1,9 million Unemployed 5,0 million Not economically active 25
Employment Annual change in employment among youth and adults Thousand 400 200 Youth Adults 2008-2015 Job losses of 221 thousand among youth. 0-200 -165-85 170-24 150 239 Job gains of 1,2 million among adults -400-600 -506 Youth employment (brown bars) show volatile movements Compared to adult employment (blue line graph) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 26
Black African Coloured Indian White Percentage of workers in each age group who are skilled (managers, professionals, technicians) The There percentage were much of workers weaker in skilled occupations gains in the increased black African in all age and all race group groups, for all except ages for black Africans aged, which decreased as shown by the blue on 1994 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Skills development challenges in South Africa Low-skilled Total Semi-skilled Total Skilled Total 43,0 34,1 52,6 42,9 47,6 40,2 39,8 31,5 37,8 30,9 57,6 35,5 41,9 48,0 36,0 37,8 40,0 40,2 43,8 47,2 44,7 53,8 33,2 54,5 15,1 17,9 11,3 19,3 12,3 19,6 16,4 21,4 17,5 15,2 9,3 10,0 African 1994 2014 Change 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0-8,9-9,7-7,4-8,3-6,9-22,1 6,0 1,8 0,2 3,4 9,1 21,3 2,9 8,0 7,3 5,0-2,3 0,7 Low-skilled Total Semi-skilled Total Skilled Total % 34,9 29,3 46,3 32,1 36,5 32,6 31,4 27,6 32,2 23,0 41,0 41,2 53,5 48,2 47,7 41,3 51,8 41,8 55,4 47,5 54,0 55,3 52,4 50,1 11,6 22,5 6,0 26,6 11,7 25,5 13,3 24,9 13,8 21,7 6,6 8,8 Coloured 1994 2014 Change 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0-5,6-14,3-3,9-3,7-9,2 0,2-5,2-6,3-9,9-7,9 1,3-2,4 10,9 20,6 13,9 11,6 7,9 2,2 Low-skilled Total Semi-skilled Total Skilled Total % 6,7 6,6 7,0 1,4 8,6 11,6 7,0 4,7 5,3 5,4 7,1 11,2 68,0 42,7 67,3 42,4 59,4 37,2 66,8 43,7 68,6 40,3 75,8 61,3 25,2 50,7 25,7 56,2 31,9 51,2 26,1 51,7 26,2 54,4 17,1 27,5 Indian 1994 2014 Change 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0-0,1-5,6 3,0-2,3 0,1 4,0-25,4-24,9-22,2-23,2-28,3-14,5 25,5 30,6 19,3 25,5 28,2 10,4 Low-skilled Total Semi-skilled Total Skilled Total % 2,9 2,7 4,3 2,3 3,5 3,1 2,0 2,3 2,6 1,5 3,3 6,7 54,9 35,8 53,6 32,5 46,7 34,8 50,4 29,8 56,8 34,7 72,2 64,5 42,2 61,5 42,1 65,2 49,9 62,0 47,7 67,9 40,6 63,8 24,5 28,8 White 1994 2014 Change 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0-0,1-2,0-0,3 0,3-1,1 3,4-19,1-21,1-11,9-20,6-22,1-7,7 19,3 23,1 12,2 20,3 23,2 4,3
Ndza Khensa!