The World in 2018
About Trajectory We strive for a world in which the future is: Better Understood Better Planned Less Feared
A year of shocks and surprises
A rising tide and sinking boats Who has gained from globalisation? Incomes are real, PPP adjusted, 2005 Dollars Source: Branko Milanovic, HBR
The Trajectory of Financial Crises 2.0% Total GDP, quarterly change after pre-recession peak 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% -8.0% -9.0% 80s recession 90s recession Great Depression 2008 Financial Crisis 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Source: ONS/Trajectory
0.98% UK Regional Growth; 2017-2019 (Total Annual GVA Growth) From Segments to Fragments New Social Classes The Elite 6% Established Middle Class 25% 1.6% 1.00% 0.69% 1.19% 1.27% 1.16% 1.20% 1.42% 1.32% 1.91% Greater London 1.9% Technical Middle Class 6% New Affluent Workers 15% Traditional Working Class 14% Emergent Service Workers 19% The Precariat 15% Source: EY; Rebalancing the UK economy, 2017 / British Class Survey 2014
Some things don t change 21% Attitudes towards globalisation against change in GDP per person Global GDP help by emerging nations in 2000 43% The amount expected to be held in 2020 Source: IMF WEO Source: YouGov/The Economist, World Bank, UN
Brexit 65+ 39% 61% 50-64 44% 56% 25-49 56% 44% 18-24 75% 25% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Remain Leave Source: YouGov
Uncertainty: National and International Domestic Economic Threats New International Relations 55bn Outstanding credit card debt in Q3 2012 68bn Outstanding credit card debt in Q3 2017 Source: Bank of England
All agreeing that The world is a more dangerous place than it used to be (2015) Anxiety Society USA 76% Italy UK 73% 73% Average 70% France 66% Japan Spain Germany 64% 64% 64% India 61% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% Source: Trajectory Global Foresight
Brands in the age of Trump
The way we live is changing
Leisure and Identity
More time for holidays Once: Leisure Class Then: Factory Fortnight Now: holidays on demand
07:00 07:20 07:40 08:00 08:20 08:40 09:00 09:20 09:40 10:00 10:20 10:40 11:00 11:20 11:40 12:00 12:20 12:40 13:00 13:20 13:40 14:00 14:20 14:40 15:00 15:20 15:40 16:00 16:20 16:40 17:00 17:20 17:40 18:00 18:20 18:40 19:00 19:20 19:40 20:00 20:20 20:40 21:00 21:20 21:40 22:00 22:20 22:40 23:00 23:20 23:40 00:00 Deregulation of life Greater flexibility in what we do, when we do it and how we do it 8% % shopping, all days (UK) 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1974 2000 2016 1% 0% BBC Daily Life 1974, ONS 2000, Trajectory s Study of Time 2016
The meaning of age is changing Longer retirement and shorter old age = longer independence Fewer children = less time as parent and less financial constraint For every age group, there is more scope for travel More time before family = more time spent in education/training Source: Willmott and Nelson, Complicated Lives
A fundamental shift in priorities 60% How important is the following in your life? (% responding very, UK) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Work Leisure Friends 1990 1999 2006 2011 2014 European Values Survey/World Values Survey/Trajectory Global Foresight
20% 15% 10% Quarterly growth in spend, %, from pre recession peak Total spending Play society 17% 5% Recreation and culture 2% 0% -5% -10% Source: ONS Consumer Trends /Trajectory
If we look on a global basis, in the west we have probably hit peak stuff. We talk about peak oil. I d say we ve hit peak red meat, peak sugar, peak stuff peak home furnishings. - Steve Howard, CEO, IKEA
New forms of leisure Mixed Reality Connoisseurship Athleisure Digital Downtime
Fake Authenticity Demand for authenticity Career Politicians Authentic Authenticity Non-establishment figures Unmediated access
GDP per Capita, 2015 90,000.00 80,000.00 Bubble size = international trips (as a % of population) Future Travellers Switzerland 70,000.00 Switzerland 147% 60,000.00 Romania Turkey 62% 10% Singapore Australia USA Sweden 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 Uzbekistan Trinidad and Tobago Egypt Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Jordan More Traditional Guatemala Tunisia Zimbabwe Moldova Russia Armenia Bulgaria Ukraine Peru China Ecuador Algeria Belarus Iran Morocco Kyrgyzstan Romania Netherlands Canada UK New Zealand France Germany Spain Cyprus Slovenia Estonia Uruguay Poland Turkey Chile Argentina Colombia Thailand Mexico India Brazil South Africa Indonesia Italy Finland Japan South Korea More Modern Source: World Bank / IMF / World Values Survey / Trajectory Global Foresight Values/Outlook of under 40s
Lifelong Learning
Tom Johnson, Director tom@trajectorypartnership.com Trajectory 22 Upper Ground, London, SE1 9PD + 44 (0)20 8004 4869 trajectorypartnership.com @TrajectoryTweet