The Case 0f Sri Lanka Ganga Tilakaratna Research Fellow Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka
Youth Bulge in Sri Lanka Outline Youth Employment and Unemployment : Current Status Youth Employment: Key Issues to be addressed Conclusions and Policy Suggestions 2
Youth Bulge in Sri Lanka % of population 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 30% Population by Age Group : 1981-2041 27% 22% 1981 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 Years 60+ years 19% Youth (15-29 years) Less than 15 Years 15-29 Years 30-59 Years Over 60 Years Source: Based on data from De Silva W.I (2007) : A population Projection of Sri Lanka for the New Millennium : 2001-2101 3
30000 Youth Population : 1981-2041 Number of youth in thousands 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1981 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 Number of youth (15-29 years) Year Total Population Source: Based on data from De Silva W.I (2007) Youth population (the number of youth) started to decline since 2006 4
Pattern of Youth Population in Sri Lanka: Contributory Factors 1) Fertility decline 2) Increase in life expectancy Fertility Transition 1953-2003/2006 85 % 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1953 1963 1971 1981 Years Total Fetility Rate 1995-2000 2003-2006 Life Expectancy at Birth (Years) 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 1952 1962-1970- 1980-2000- 2006 2011 2016 Year 2021 2026 Male Female Source: Based on Gunasekera, H.R., (2008), De Silva (2013) 5
3) Increasing trend of migration Number 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Departure for Foreign Employment 1986-2011 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Based on CBSL, 2012 Years Male Female Total Increasing level of migration since early 1980s for permanent migration, employment, education & other 35-40% of those who migrate for employment are youth 6
% 50 40 30 20 10 0 Youth Unemployment in Sri Lanka Youth Unemployment rate (1992-2012) 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Years 15-19 Years 20-29 Years Total Unemployment Source: Based on Sri Lanka Labour Force Survey Data Various Years Decline in overall unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate In early 1990s, youth unemployment was much higher Despite the declining trend, unemployment rate among youth has been much higher than the overall rate. 7
Unemployment Rate by Age and Gender -2012 25 23.5 Unemployment Rate % 20 15 10 5 0 17.3 14 11.4 4 6.2 6.6 4.3 4.7 2.8 2.5 1.4 0.8 1.5 0.5 Total 15-24 years 25-29 years 30-39 years Over 40 years Age Group Total Male Female Source: Based on LFS 2012 Unemployment among 15-24 group is about four times higher than the overall unemployment rate- 17.3% Unemployment is particularly higher among young females - 23.5% among 15-24 group 8
About 75% of unemployed are youth (over 40% are between 20-24 years) The pattern has remained unchanged over the past 2 decades % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Distribution of Unemployed Persons by Age Group Years 15-19 years 20-24 years 25-29 years Over 30 years Source: Based on CBSL, 2012 9
12 Unemployment Rate by Level of Education - 2012 10.8 Unemployment Rate % 10 8 6 4 2 0 8.8 7.5 6.2 6 4.6 4.7 4 4.5 2.8 3.2 2.6 0.6 0.3 1 Total Grade 5 & below Grade 6-10 G.C.E. (O/L) G.C.E. A/L & above Level of Education Total Male Female Source: Based on Labor Force Survey 2012 Unemployment among the educated is higher, particularly among educated females. 10
Status of Youth Employment Informal sector employment - 2009 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Significant share of employed youth are in informal sector jobs. 15-19 20-24 25-29 % 30 + Formal Informal 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 15-19 20-24 25-29 Over 30 Age Groups Unpaid Family Worker Own Account Worker Employer Private Employee Public Employee Source: World Bank (2010) 11 % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Youth All
Female Labour Force Participation Rate Female LFPR has not only been low but has fallen in recent year LFPR among young females is about half that among young males (37% vs 74% in 20-24 age group & 39% vs 94% in 205-29) Source: Sri Lanka Labour Force Survey Annual Report 2011 12
Youth Employment : Key Issues to be Addressed 13
1) Skills Mismatch Two types : Lack of skills (technical/ soft skills) in demand in the labour market Shortage of jobs to match the needs and aspirations of jobseekers Lack of skills among youth, to a large extent, is due to gaps in the current education system (tertiary and secondary) 14
Distribution of Youth by the type of Education Institute Source: based on LFS 2009 data ( UNDP, 2012) Sri Lanka s tertiary education system caters only to a smaller proportion of youth, primarily due to the limited capacity. A larger share of youth enter the labour market without higher education/ vocational/ technical training 15
National Examination Success Rates and University Admission 2010 Number sitting for O-Levels 433,673 Percentage qualifying for A-Levels (% of O/L candidates) 58 Number sitting for A-Levels 233,354 Number qualifying to enter university 142,415 Percentage qualifying to enter university (% of A/L candidates) 61 Number admitted to university 21,547 Percentage admitted to university (% of A/L qualified) 17 Source: DCS (2011), Statistical Pocket Book 2011 ( UNDP, 2012) Due to limited capacity in state universities, each year, more than 100,000 qualified students miss opportunity to enter university. Limited alternatives opportunities few private universities, vocational training) 16
Distribution of University Enrolments by Subject Heavy concentration on Arts/Management (almost 55% studied these disciplines) Proportion of undergraduates studying science/engineering/ IT is smaller - but increasingly high demand! Lack of soft skills (communication skills, IT working knowledge, proficiency in English language) skills mismatch in labour market Source: UGC, 2012 (UNDP, 2012) 17
2) Queuing for public sector jobs Due to job security, pensions and non-wage benefits e.g. more holidays and less work Preference for public sector jobs is high among females (and graduates) Gender parity in earnings in the public sector. 3) Gender- wage gap The gender- wage gap is much higher in the private and semigovernment sectors - around 36% and 30% respectively compared to 8% in public sector ( World Bank, 2012) 4) Inequitable gender division in the labour market (male jobs/ female jobs) or gender segregation by occupation 18
5) Regulatory environment governing the labour market contributes to slow growth of formal jobs - Termination of Employment of Workmen Act (TEWA) Effective in protecting jobs and preventing job losses but raise the cost of hiring formal workers Leads to hiring of informal workers by formal enterprises. 19
Conclusions and Policy Suggestions 20
Improving quality and relevance of education (tertiary and secondary) More emphasis on disciplines like ICT, science and technology there is an increasing demand for labour in these areas but there s a shortage of skilled labour Policies to improve soft skills in addition to technical skills Establish links between education institutes and industry/private sector Expanding the tertiary education sector Vocational Training Career guidance / job search assistance Set-up career centres throughout the country and career guidance at school level. 21
Re-visiting labour market regulations that hinder the creation of formal jobs. Measures to address gender-wage gap and gender segregation of occupation in labour market Measures to increase female labour force participation Youth entrepreneurship financial assistance, training, BDS Strengthening social protection 22
THANK YOU! 23