2. 4 S O C I A L / D E M O G R A P H I C The KZN population has grown to approximately 10,645,400 people in 2010 (Stats SA 2010: 4) from approximately 9,557,165 people in 2001 (Stats SA 2003 cited by Coetzee 2010: KZN Population). The year-on-year growth is shown in Table 2.7. These estimates are the medium scenario of Stats SA population projections which include the effects of HIV-AIDS and in and out migration i.e. the projections are not only of natural growth. It is shown in Table 2.7 that the number of people in 2010 increased by approximately 1.88%, a decrease of 1.52% from 2009 but an increase compared to the year-on-year growth figures prior to 2009. Table 2.7 KZN medium mid-year population estimates by year (Coetzee 2011: KZN after Stats SA). Year Medium Mid-Year Population Estimates by Year Year-on-Year Growth (%) 2001 9,557,165 2002 9,659,485 1.07 2003 9,752,211 0.96 2004 9,835,710 0.86 2005 9,910,636 0.76 2006 9,974,344 0.64 2007 10,045,594 0.71 2008 10,105,436 0.60 2009 10,449,300 3.40 2010 10,645,400 1.88 Average 9,993,528 1.21 Median 9,942,490 0.86 St Dev 339,980 0.91 Range 1,088,235 2.81 DWA uses the mid-year population estimates to calculate the approximate number of people per municipality. The number of people and the number of households for the 2004 2010 period as obtained from DWA s Water Services National Information System (WSNIS) are shown in Figures 2.21 and 2.22. 36
Figure 2.21 Number of people per WSA (2004 2010) (WSNIS 2010). Figure 2.22 Number of households per WSA (2004 2010)(WSNIS 2010). 37
The distribution of people was illustrated by the footprints of the urban areas and rural settlements (as identified by DRDLR) in Figures 2.7 and 2.8 in relation to CoGTA s categorisation of the municipalities. These areas in relation to Umgeni Water s infrastructure are shown in Figure 2.23. Population density as calculated using the Census 2001 data on a sub-place level is available in IMP 2010, IMP 2009 and IMP 2008. The DRDLR s Rural Settlements study (2009a) presented population density as an isoline map and this is shown in Figure 2.24. The DRDLR s Urban Edges study also identified a classification for urban areas, which is shown in Table 2.8 and Figure 2.25. Neither study included ethekwini Municipality, as ethekwini is undertaking its own study. The lower-order urban centres should be monitored for growth into higher-order centres as the higher-order centres will have a higher consumption of potable water. Table 2.8 Urban area classification (DRDLR 2009: 12). Code Urban Continuum Category 0 Dense rural settlement: rural hamlet 1 Rudimentary small town (formal and/or informal) 1a 1b 1c 1d 1e Rudimentary service node Self-serving small centre focussed around industry/service Tourism centre Golfing estate Tourism resort 2 Low-order small towns 2a 2b Limited range of services and formal residential Dislocated dormitory suburb 3 Upper order small towns 3a Wide range of services plus residential formal layout with services and industries 4 Centre with full range of services and formal housing 5 Emerging metros 6 Full metros The State of the Population of KwaZulu-Natal Demographic Profile and Development Indicators (KZN Office of the Premier 2010) was released in 2010. The report presents an assessment on the number of people and households and access to services using Stats SA s Community Survey 2007, Census 2001 and Census 2006. It also provides a good analysis on the labour market, the overall trends in migration flows into and out of KwaZulu-Natal, the nature of poverty, the state of the HIV pandemic, the levels of childhood mortality, the state of orphans and the ageing population in KwaZulu-Natal. The results of this report are not presented here as the results are not used directly in bulk water planning (the results on the number of people, households and access to services are already used from Stats SA). 38
Figure 2.23 Settlement footprints (2009). 39
Figure 2.24 Isoline map of population density (2009). 40
Figure 2.25 DRDLR s Urban Classification (2009). 41
2. 5 E C O N O M I C The year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth rates for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for South Africa and Gross Domestic Product for Region (GDPR) for KwaZulu-Natal are shown in Figures 2.26 and 2.27. Figure 2.26 Year-on-year growth rate for GDP in South Africa and GDPR in KZN (Coetzee 2011: spreadsheet). Figure 2.27 Quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted growth rate for GDP in South Africa and GDPR in KZN (Coetzee 2011: spreadsheet). It is shown in Figures 2.26 and 2.27 that the South African economy as well as the KwaZulu-Natal economy is recovering from the global economic recession. Statistics SA states that a comparison of the average real economic growth rate from 2002 to 2009 recorded by the provincial economies and the total economy (Stats SA 2010: 9) shows that the South African economy recorded an average growth rate of 3.7 percent (Stats SA 2010: 9) which KwaZulu-Natal bettered at 3.8 percent (Stats SA 2010: 9). The South African Reserve Bank reports that: 42
In South Africa the pace of economic growth decelerated slightly in the third quarter of 2010, held back mainly by a contraction in the secondary sector as industrial action in the automotive and related industries reduced output. In the tertiary sector growth slowed, partly due to a lengthy strike in the public sector. By contrast, growth in the real value added by the primary sector accelerated in the third quarter of 2010 as mining output recovered, having suffered setbacks in the second quarter on account of routine maintenance work on smelters, as well as industrial action. Agricultural production recorded strong increases in both the second and third quarters of 2010, consistent with the bumper maize crop harvested. (SA Reserve Bank 2010: website) Figure 2.28 shows the changes in Gross Value Added (GVA) per local municipality from 2004 to 2009 and Figure 2.29 the percentage contribution of municipal GVA to the total KwaZulu-Natal GVA for 2009. Figure 2.28 Percentage contribution of municipal GVA to total KZN GVA (2004-2009) (Coetzee 2011: spreadsheet). 43
Figure 2.29 Percentage contribution of municipal GVA to total KZN GVA (2009) (Coetzee 2011: spreadsheet). 44
It is shown in Figures 2.28 and 2.29 that the municipalities with the largest contribution to the total KZN GVA are located along the national roads, forming a T-Junction. A comparison with Figure 2.24 shows that highest population densities are also located along the T-Junction and with Figure 2.25 that there are is a greater distribution of higher-order urban centres located in those municipalities with higher GVA. An evaluation of Figure 2.29 and Figure 2.8 shows that the highest-performing municipalities are also those with the highest contribution of GVA to the total KwaZulu-Natal GVA and are also located along the T-Junction. The annual growth rates for GDP for Durban, Pietermaritzburg and Port Shepstone are shown in Figures 2.30 2.32. It shown that for Durban and Pietermaritzburg, the growth rates are recovering but for Port Shepstone, the growth rate still has to recover. Figure 2.30 Annual growth rate in GDP for Durban (Coetzee 2011: spreadsheet). Figure 2.31 Annual growth rate in GDP for Pietermaritzburg (Coetzee 2011: spreadsheet). 45
Figure 2.32 Annual growth in GDP for Port Shepstone (Coetzee 2011: spreadsheet). The trend of the recovering economy is also reflected in the number of development applications received by CoGTA as shown in Figure 2.33. Figure 2.33 Number of development applications received per year per district municipality (CoGTA s Application Filing System database 2010). Another example supporting the T-Junction concept is shown in Figure 2.34. An example illustrating the types of development applications (PDA, Town Planning Ordinance (TPO), Development Facilitation Act (DFA) etc.) received is shown in Figure 2.35, which shows the types of applications received in 2010. The types of land uses proposed with these applications are shown in Figure 2.36. 46
Figure 2.34 Development applications received (2004 2010). 47
Figure 2.35 Development application types (2010). 48
Figure 2.36 Proposed land use applications (2010). 49
Figures 2.37 2.38 show that the recorded Rand value of building plans passed by the larger municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal (ethekwini Municipality, The Msunduzi Municipality, KwaDukuza Municipality, Hibiscus Coast Municipality, umhlathuze Municipality and Newcastle Municipality) by building type, are still decreasing. Figure 2.37 Recorded Rand value of building plans passed by the larger KZN municipalities by residential building type per cost (Coetzee 2011: spreadsheet). Figure 2.38 Recorded Rand value of building plans passed by the larger KZN municipalities by non-residential building type per cost (Coetzee 2011: spreadsheet). 50
2. 6 P O V E R T Y No new information on poverty assessments within KwaZulu-Natal has been sourced and therefore the 57 most deprived wards (2006 ward boundaries) as identified by the Flagship Programme (IMP 2010: 46) are still applicable. Those wards occurring in Umgeni Water s supply area are shown in Figure 2.39. The 2011 ward boundaries are delineated in brown. It is shown in Figure 2.39 that the 2006 wards used in the Flagship Programme and that are ranked as 20, 22, 23, 35, 36, 38, 48, 49 and 53 have had their boundaries amended for the 2011 local elections. The Office of the Premier will need to provide guidance on whether the boundaries used in the Flagship Programme will be amended. A comparison of Figure 2.39 with Figure 2.34 shows that there are a limited number of development applications in the deprived wards. This suggests that growth in these areas is limited and hence only a basic level of service is required. 51
Figure 2.39 KZN Flagship Programme (2010). 52
2. 7 W A T E R A T E R S E R V I C E S The number of people with access to water below RDP levels per WSA (2004 2010) as per the WSNIS is shown in Figure 2.40, whilst the density of the backlogs is shown in Figure 2.41. Number of People 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Umgungundlo vu T he M sunduzi Siso nke Ugu et hekwini Ilembe 2004 102,017 111,580 200,726 400,717 410,426 266,550 2005 87,569 112,686 174,260 364,971 360,642 228,524 2006 81,182 104,851 161,667 345,666 325,686 213,898 2007 71,088 92,485 148,226 313,205 272,218 189,969 2008 63,409 81,987 147,097 296,861 209,669 172,032 2009 53,412 70,275 137,056 267,024 157,044 149,840 2010 44,946 59,391 117,568 224,618 110,754 119,118 WSA Figure 2.40 Number of people with access to water below RDP levels per WSA (2004 2009). A comparison of Figure 2.41 with Figure 2.39 shows that, as expected, there are water backlogs in those wards that are most deprived. However, Figure 2.41 also shows that there are significant backlog densities in the higher performing municipalities (compare with Figures 2.8 and 2.29). 53
Figure 2.41 Water backlogs (2010). 54
2. 8 P L A N N I N G 2. 8. 1 N A T I O N A L A T I O N A L S P H E R E The National Planning Commission appointed Commissioners in April 2010 and of the 26 commissioners appointed, only three have expertise in the water sector: Mr Muller, former director-general of the former DWAF, Dr Molwantwa, a water treatment specialist with Digby Wells and Associates and Prof Eberhard, a specialist in utility institutional reform. The National Planning Commission held a spatial planning seminar in August 2010 and emanating was the development of spatial planning norms for South Africa. A draft document has been tabled to the National Planning Commission (von Riesen 2011: personal communication). Building on the Medium-Term Strategic Framework for 2009 2014, the Cabinet Lekgotla, which was held on 20 22 January 2010, adopted the following 12 Outcomes: Outcome 1: Improved quality of basic education. Outcome 2: A long and healthy life for all South Africans. Outcome 3: All people in South Africa are and feel safe. Outcome 4: Decent employment through inclusive economic growth. Outcome 5: A skilled and capable workforce to support an inclusive growth path. Outcome 6: An efficient, competitive and responsive economic infrastructure network. Outcome 7: Vibrant, equitable and sustainable rural communities with food security for all. Outcome 8: Sustainable human settlements and improved quality of household life. Outcome 9: A responsive, accountable, effective and efficient local government system. Outcome 10: Environmental assets and natural resources that are well protected and continually enhanced. Outcome 11: Create a better South Africa and contribute to a better and safer Africa and World. (SA Government website: 2010) DEA explains that the above 12 outcomes are the primary focus of work for government between 2010 and 2014. DEA continues to state that each outcome has a limited number of measurable outputs with targets and that each output is linked to a set of activities that will help achieve the targets and contribute to the outcome. They elaborate that each of the 12 outcomes has a delivery agreement which in most cases involve all spheres of government and a range of partners outside government and that combined, these agreements reflect governments delivery and implementation plans for its foremost priorities. (DEA 2010: 1). The water sector is addressed in Outcome 10 which has as its first output, Enhanced quality and quantity of water resources. The outputs for Outcome 10 are summarised in Table 2.9. 55
Table 2.9 Outputs and sub-outputs for Outcome 10 (DEA 2010: 10). Outputs Sub-Outputs 1. Enhanced quality and quantity of water resources. Water demand. Water resource protection. Regulation of water quality. 2. Reduced greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and improved air/atmospheric quality. Reduction of emission of CO 2. Reduction of atmospheric pollutants. Renewable energy deployment. Adapting to the impacts of climate change. Energy efficiency. 3. Sustainable environment management. Restoration and rehabilitation of degraded ecosystems. Deforestation and forest management. Less and better managed waste. Management of environment impacts from mining and related activities. Sustainable land use management. 4. Protected biodiversity. Expansion of the conservation estate. Reduced climate change impacts on biodiversity. Protected ecosystem and species. Valuing the ecosystem services. Protection of agricultural land. Water, as a basic service also features in Outcome 9, which is the primary Outcome for local government. The seven outputs for Outcome 9 are shown in Table 2.10. Table 2.10 Outputs for Outcome 9 (CoGTA 2010: 5). Output Description of Output Output 1 Output 2 Output 3 Output 4 Output 5 Output 6 Output 7 Implement a differentiated approach to municipal financing, planning and support. Improving access to basic services. Implementation of the Community Work Programme. Actions supportive of the Human Settlements Outcome. Deepen democracy through a refined Ward Committee Model. Administrative and financial capability. Single window of coordination. The linkage between the required activities, outputs and outcome for Output 2 is shown in Figure 2.42. 56
Figure 2.42 Linkage between activities, outputs and outcome: Output 2 of Outcome 9 (CoGTA 2010: 7). The relevant indicators for Output 2 are summarised in Table 2.11. Table 2.11 Indicators for Output 2. Output Indicator Target Monitoring Mechanisms 2. Increased access to basic services. Mechanism to improve reticulation of services, fund bulk infrastructure and support procurement of land. Instrument implemented to mobilise private sector funding for municipalities. Increased household access to basic water. Increased household access to basic sanitation. 2012 Established Bulk Infrastructure Fund. 2013 Established Special Purpose Vehicle. 100% by 2014 Stats SA Survey 100% by 2014 Stats SA Survey National CoGTA has signed delivery agreements with a range of partners including national departments, provincial departments, municipalities, SALGA, business community, donors/development partners, professional bodies e.g. SAICE, civic formations and traditional leaders where each delivery partner has been allocated a specific role and responsibility within each output (COGTA 2010: 24-28). An example cited by CoGTA of a partnership is that of DWA with their Regional Offices, Provinces, municipalities and WSAs with respect to water access and management (CoGTA 2010: 24). 57
For provincial and local delivery partners, reference is made to the Local Government Turnaround Strategies (LGTAS) (IMP 2010: 59 60). The LGTAS are composed of four phases: Phase 1: 20 January 9 February 2010 Provincial Support Teams undertook visits to municipalities to identify two of the most vulnerable municipalities per province which required urgent assistance from government. Phase 2: 10 February 30 April 2010 The full roll-out of the Municipal Turnaround Strategies for priority/targeted municipalities as well as the completion of the Municipal Turnaround Strategies for all 283 municipalities in the country. The consolidation of the MTAS priorities with the IDPs and budgets of municipalities is critical in this phase. Phase 3: 1 April 30 June 2010: Focus on provincially coordinated IDP Analysis Sessions to examine draft IDPs and the Municipal Turnaround Strategies within them. During this phase the IDPs, the Budgets and the Service Delivery Budget Implementation Plans (SDBIPs) will be adopted by municipal councils. Phase 4: 1 July 31 March 2011: MECS will comment on the commitments made to the IDPs. Implementation of the IDP will go hand in hand with hands-on Rapid Response support processes, leveraging of stakeholder support and reporting and monitoring. (CoGTA Press Release 2010: webpage) Phases 1 3 have been completed and Phase 4 is currently in progress. All the municipalities had access to water and sanitation, management and maintenance as a key priority area. For those municipalities within Umgeni Water s supply area, only The Msunduzi Municipality referred to Umgeni Water directly with a SLA with Umgeni being referred to in Unblocking Action Needed from Other Spheres and Agencies. ethekwini Municipality listed their key challenge as being inadequate grant from National Treasury. KwaDukuza Municipality was the only municipality which had Not applicable as Ilembe function i.e. WSA function for this priority area. An assessment of the Ilembe family of municipalies by CoGTA indicates that water appears to the Number 1 priority for the Ilembe family. The Ugu family of municipalities referred to their relationship with Ugu District Municipality but they did not appear to be wholly dissatisfied with Ugu as the WSA. However, for the Sisonke family of municipalities, most of the municipalities stated dissatisfaction with Sisonke s level of service as the WSA. Sisonke District Municipality indicated MOUs with ethekwini and perhaps Ugu as one of their actions. They also stated that the cross-boundary schemes are a priority for them. DWA released the Integrated Water Resource Planning for South Africa: A Situation Analysis 2010 in September 2010, updating the Situation Analysis 2009 that was discussed in the IMP 2010. Other national strategies currently being prepared by DWA are the National Desalination Strategy and the National Strategy for Water Re-Use. DWA is progressing with the implementation of the All Towns Reconciliation Study which looks at water reconciliation strategies for all towns in South Africa. The recommended actions from the Water Reconciliation Strategy Study for the KwaZulu-Natal Coastal Metropolitan Areas (IMP 2010; IMP 2009) are currently being implemented and this project is currently in a maintenance phase. 58
DRDLR prepared national guidelines for the formulation on SDFs. Umgeni Water submitted comments on the draft guidelines, especially since little emphasis was placed on water issues. 2. 8. 2 P R O V I N C I A L R O V I N C I A L S P H E R E Progress is being made with the implementation of the PDA (Section 2.2 and IMP 2010). The status of the municipal delegations for the approval of PDA applications is shown in Figure 2.43 and the applications received to date in Figure 2.44. Figure 2.43 Status of PDA delegations (3 February 2011). The Provincial Spatial Economic Development Strategy continued with its annual update of all sector projects to which Umgeni Water submitted its projects. 59
Figure 2.44 PDA applications received (Dec 2010). 60
2. 8. 3 L O C A L O C A L S P H E R E All municipalities submitted their 2010/2011 Integrated Development Plans (IDPs), the MEC provided comments and the IDPs were adopted as per the agreed to schedule with the MEC. The preparation of the 2011/2012 IDPs are in progress and as part of this process, all municipalities are addressing the comments and recommendations provided by the MEC. KZN CoGTA undertook an assessment of all Spatial Development Frameworks (SDFs) and the findings are as follows: District investment (e.g. water and sanitation roll-out) is not always aligned to local SDFs/IDPs. In some districts, very good alignment has been achieved. Investment by sector departments not aligned to local/district SDFs/IDPs. MIG investment guided by backlogs and not always informed by local development priorities or guidelines such as NSDP etc. Some local municipalities are grant dependent and cannot direct investment decisions. SDFs are generally not reviewed annually and therefore cannot be aligned to current capital investment. Some SDFs at the local level have a very clear link with land use management. Sector plans are not always produced in a manner that can be spatially presented. Planners/IDP Managers should be more involved at the outset of sector plan preparation to define outputs. Terminology and SDF components not always well defined, e.g. corridors and nodes. SDF preparation is a process and the final product should contain a series of maps. It is not possible to reflect all information on a single map. Hierarchy of Plans concept has been well applied by some municipalities to indicate detail at a more localised (even precinct) level. Locational advantages and cross border issues are noted in a number of SDFs but no appropriate strategic responses compiled. Some IDPs contain project details of many service providers that would not be practical to map guidance is therefore needed in respect of which investment in a given area should be reflected in an SDF. Outdated base data. (KZN CoGTA 2010: 9 10) The N3 Corridor Inter-Municipal Forum intends to develop a concept plan for the N3 Corridor study and is now undertaking the status quo assessment. Other local initiatives of note are: The Thornville-Baynesfield-Hopewell Land Use Plan (in Richmond Municipality) was adopted. Ugu District Municipality has commenced with their 2011/2012 WSDP. Ugu District Municipality s Infrastructure Audit and Capacity Assessment study is in progress. Ugu District Municipality s family of municipalities are in the process of updating their SDFs. Umgungundlovu District Municipality adopted their WSDP in September 2010. 61
Umgungundlovu District Municipality is in the final stages of adjudication for the appointment of a consultant to undertake a district-wide SEA. ethekwini Municipality circulated their draft Cato Ridge Local Area Plan for comment in January 2011. 2. 8. 4 U M G E N I M G E N I W A T E R A T E R S P L A N N I N G L A N N I N G Umgeni Water s bulk water infrastructure planning is guided by the national, provincial and local objectives and strategies, as outlined in the preceding sections, by the organisation s own mission and strategies, as well as by changes and trends in the external environment. Priorities and future requirements are established by maintaining close liaison with all parties. The process loop is closed through the incorporation of this planning into the various WSDPs and IDPs of the WSAs, into the PSEDS planning process and into the KZN PWSP. In its planning for bulk water provision, Umgeni Water has promoted a regional bulk supply approach (initially referred to as the KZN Bulk Water Strategy), which focuses on improving access to water services through partnerships with other government entities. A guiding principle in this approach is the importance of the long-term sustainability of the schemes, and the need to consider the big picture first, such that this can be taken into account when planning and developing the smaller schemes. It is recognised that although largescale regional schemes may be ideal to implement at the onset, this is generally not practically possible, and therefore the smaller schemes should be implemented in stages as funding and needs dictate with the big picture in mind as the final goal. The benefits of this approach far outweigh the limited redundancy that may ultimately be introduced into some of the schemes as they are expanded and linked. Comprehensive planning can establish what infrastructure is required, the configuration and sizing necessary, and when it will be required to be operational. However, it is important to note that the implementation of these plans is influenced, and driven, by a host of other factors such as financial constraints, corporate strategy, politics, and priorities, all of which carry their own weight in the decision making process and cannot be ignored. Close liaison at the executive and political level between all affected parties is therefore necessary to ensure that there is agreement on the decisions taken. Planning by Umgeni Water, for both water resource and water supply development, is based on the principles of integrated resource planning. Integrated resource planning considers the elements of supply management and demand management concurrently to establish the appropriate combination which will provide a sustainable long term solution at the lowest cost where benefits to society are maximised and impacts to the environment are minimised. In this regard, Umgeni Water is currently undertaking investigations to assess the potential of the supply options of seawater desalination (Section 4.6) and waste water re-use (Section 4.5). These will be assessed against the conventional supply option of surface water development to determine whether they are viable substitution or supplementary options. Potential climate change impacts on water supply availability are also being determined (Section 4.3) such that appropriate adaptation controls can be assessed and developed. Water Demand Management continues to remain a key component of the overall reconciliation of supply and demand within the Umgeni Water area of supply. 62