2012 Economic Update Information provided by Jacksonville State University Center for Economic Development and College of Commerce and Business Administration
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jan 2011 Jan 2012 80% 70% 60% 78% 74% 68% 74% 70% 72% 64% 74% 70% 64% 59% 61% 50% 56% J F M A M J J A S O N D J Source: University of Michigan Institute of Social Research 3
In $Billions Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services in U.S. Dec 2010 Dec 2011 in $ Bill $410 $400 $390 $380 $376 +6.5% $401 $370 Dec-2010 Mar-2011 Jun-2011 Sep-2011 Dec-2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 6
Index % change Consumer Price Index U.S. City Ave Dec 10 Dec 2011 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4 Dec 10 Source: U.S. Census Bureau +3% 12 Months Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 11 7
U.S. Industrial Production Dec 2006 Dec 2011 105 100 +2.9% from Dec 2010 95 90 85 80 2006-12 2007-12 2008-12 2009-12 2010-12 2011-12 Source: Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System 8
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Jan06 Jan12 16,000 +849 pts (7.1%) Last 12 Months 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 J-06 J-07 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 Source: NY Stock Exchange 9
U.S. GDP 1 st Qtr 2006 3 rd Qtr 2011 108 106 +1.46% from 2nd Qtr 104 102 100 98 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 10
In $Billions $190 $170 $150 $130 $110 Alabama Gross Domestic Product 1981 2010 +3.5% from 2009 130 124 119 115 142 151 159 165 170 167 173 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 11
% Change Sales Tax Monthly % Change AL 2010 vs 2011 8% +3.54% Annual 7.8 6.3 4% 2.5 2.3 4.1 2.0 1.3 2.8 0.9 4.5 4.6 3.5 0% Source: Alabama Department of Revenue 12
TN 9.8% KY 9.1% Seasonally Adjusted NC 9.9% MS 10.4% AL 8.1% GA 9.7% SC 9.5% Preliminary Unemployment Rates Southeastern United States Dec 2011 FL 9.9% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 14
% Change Sales Tax and Individual Income Tax Monthly % Change 35% 25% 15% 5% AL 2010 vs 2011 Sales Tax Income Tax -5% -15% +3.48% Sales +4.98% Incomes Source: Alabama Department of Revenue 15
State Survey 1st Quarter 2012 Approximately 271 respondents Operated by University of Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research cber.cba.ua.edu 16
% of Respondents Economic Outlook for Alabama Q4 2011 compared to Q1 2012 50% 40% 30% 20% 23.3% 42.4% 32.8% 10% 1.1% 0% Much Worse Worse Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index Remain the Same Better 0.4% Much Better 17
Economic Outlook Index for Alabama Q2 10 Q1 12 60% 55% 50% 45% 50% 52% 48% 55% 56% 51% 46% 52% 40% Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 18
% of Respondents Alabama Hiring Outlook Q4 2011 vs Q1 2012 60% 55.7% 45% 30% 15% 0% 3.7% Strong Decrease 17.0% Moderate Decrease No Change 22.9% Moderate Increase 0.7% Strong Increase Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 19
% Reporting Increase Alabama Hiring Outlook Q2 10 Q1 12 60% 55% 50% 45% 47% 50% 48% 52% 53% 52% 46% 50% 40% Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 20
Economic Indicators Calhoun County 21
Calhoun County Membership Survey 2012 Ten years of data from Chamber Membership Results for seven questions First chart shows last years results Second chart shows this years results Third chart shows results for all ten years 22
Q#1: Your Comparison of this Years Economic Outlook to This year worse 9% Last This year better 41% About same 50% Source: 2011 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Last Year Jan 2011 23
Q#1: Your Comparison of this Years Economic Outlook to This year worse 5% Last About same 38% This year better 57% This Year Jan 2012 Source: 2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 24
% "This Year Better" 80% 60% 40% Q#1: Your Comparison of this Years Economic Outlook to Last 2003-2012 70% 64% 67% 56% 58% 40% 47% 43% 41% 57% 20% 0% 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: 2003-2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 25
Q#2: Your Employment Outlook for Coming Year Cutback # emp 10% Expand # emp 19% Remain same 71% Source: 2011 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Last Year Jan 2011 26
Q#2: Your Employment Outlook for Coming Year Cutback # emp 8% Expand # emp 30% Remain same 62% Source: 2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey This Year Jan 2012 27
% "Expand # Emp" Q#2: Your Employment Outlook for Coming Year 52% 34% 17% 28% 2003-2012 44% 43% 34% 37% 31% 25% 17% 19% 30% 0% 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: 2003-2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 28
Remain same 75 Q#3: How Likely to Increase Employee Compensation in Coming Year Very unlikely 36% Source: 2011 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Very likely 18% May or may not 46% Last Year Jan 2011 29
Remain same 75 Q#3: How Likely to Increase Employee Compensation in Coming Year Very unlikely 21% Very likely 30% May or may not 49% Source: 2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey This Year Jan 2012 30
% "Very Likely" Q#3: How Likely to Increase Emp Compensation in 75% 50% 25% Coming Year 2003-2012 68% 48% 47% 53% 54% 58% 42% 30% 24% 18% 0% 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: 2003-2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 31
Remain same 75 Q#4: How Likely is Increase in Demand for Your Products in Coming Year Very unlikely 7% Very likely 32% May or may not 61% Source: 2011 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Last Year Jan 2011 32
Very Remain same 75 Q#4: How Likely is Increase in Demand for Your Products in Coming Year Very unlikely 8% likely 44% May or may not 48% This Year Jan 2012 Source: 2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 33
% "Very Likely" Q#4: How Likely is Increase in Demand for Your Products in Coming Year 2003-2012 75% 50% 50% 59% 55% 62% 58% 50% 40% 32% 44% 25% 20% 0% 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: 2003-2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 34
Remain same 75 Q#5: How Likely to Add New Products in Coming Year Very unlikely 30% Very likely 37% May or may not 33% Last Year Jan 2011 Source: 2011 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 35
Remain same 75 Q#5: How Likely to Add New Products in Coming Year Very unlikely 27% Very likely 39% May or may not 34% This Year Jan 2012 Source: 2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 36
% "Very Likely" Q#5: How Likely to Add New Products in Coming Year 2003-2012 75% 50% 45% 53% 38% 52% 47% 46% 33% 37% 37% 39% 25% 0% 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: 2003-2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 37
Remain same 75 Q#6: How Likely to Expand Number of Outlets in Coming Year Very likely 7% May or may not 10% Very unlikely 83% Source: 2011 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey Last Year Jan 2011 38
Remain same 75 Q#6: How Likely to Expand Number of Outlets in Coming Year Very likely 11% May or may not 17% Very unlikely 72% This Year Jan 2012 Source: 2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 39
% "Very Likely" Q#6: How Likely to Expand Number of Outlets in Coming Year 2003-2012 30% 27% 20% 10% 9% 13% 18% 11% 19% 9% 12% 7% 11% 0% 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: 2003-2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 40
Remain same 75 Q#7: How Likely to Increase Expenditures on Advertising Very unlikely 41% in Coming Year Very likely 16% Last Year Jan 2011 Source: 2011 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey May or may not 43% 41
same 75 Q#7: How Likely to Increase Expenditures on Advertising Very unlikely 37% Remain in Coming Year Very likely 25% This Year Jan 2012 Source: 2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey May or may not 38% 42
% "Very Likely" Q#7: How Likely to Increase Expenditures on Advertising in Coming Year 2003-2012 50% 40% 34% 37% 42% 32% 30% 20% 10% 21% 26% 25% 19% 16% 13% 0% 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: 2003-2012 Calhoun County Chamber of Commerce Membership Survey 43
In 1,000 Population Trends Calhoun County 1999-2011 120 118 116 114 112 110 117 2010-118,572 119 119 114 111 111 111 112 112 113 113 113 112 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 44
Population Census Population Calhoun County 1990, 2000, 2010 120,000 116,034 118,572 115,000 112,249 110,000 105,000 1990 2000 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census 45
Billions of Current $ $4.0 $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $2.44 GDP Calhoun County Billions of Current $ $2.60 2001-2010 $2.75 $3.45 $3.70 $3.06 $3.26 $3.80 $3.68 $3.73 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 46
In 1,000 Labor Force Calhoun County Jan Dec 2011 55 54 53 52 51 53.7 53.9 53.5 53.7 53.5 53.1 53.0 53.2 52.1 52.4 52.8 52.6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 48
In 1,000 Employment Calhoun County Jan Dec 2011 49 48 47 47.1 47.4 48.8 48.4 48.4 48.5 48.3 48.1 47.9 48.5 48.6 48.6 46 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 50
% Unemployed Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County 2011 10.5% 9.5% 9.6% 8.5% 7.5% Not Seasonally Adjusted 7.5% 6.5% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 52
8.7% Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2010 State Ave 8.9% Unemployment Rate 11.4% and Below %11.5-14.9% 15.0% and Above Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations Not Seasonally Adjusted 53
7.5% Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2011 State Ave 7.5% Unemployment Rate 9.3% and Below 9.4% - 11.8% 11.9% and Above Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations Not Seasonally Adjusted 54
Claims per Month Initial Unemployment Claims per Month Calhoun County 1,600 2007 vs 2011 1,200 2007 2011 800 400 Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations 55
In 1000 s 36.0 Total Private Industry Employees for Calhoun County in 1000 s 2011 35.5 35.3 35.5 35.1 35.0 34.5 34.7 34.8 34.4 34.4 34.0 34.2 Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations 57
Hours Worked per Week Ave # Hrs Worked per Week Calhoun County Jan-Nov 2011 37.0 36.8 36.8 36.7 36.6 36.5 36.0 36.1 36.4 35.5 35.0 35.3 35.6 Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations 59
$ per Hour Ave Hourly Earnings for Calhoun County Jan Dec 2011 $18 $17.11 $16.91 $17 $16 $16.19 $15.61 $16.17 $15.87 $15 $15.41 Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations 61
In $ Millions Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY09-10 FY10-11 Anniston in $ Millions $19 $18 $17 $17.90 $17.89 $18.05 $17.33 $17.13 $17.47 $16.84 $16.62 $16 $15 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 Source: City of Anniston 62
% Change Sales, Use, Lodging Tax Monthly Change FY 09-10 vs FY 10-11 Anniston (Oct-Sept) in Percent 32% 24% 24% 16% 8% 0% 10% 1% 8% 5% 2% 3% -8% -16% -5% -5% -8% -5% -7% Source: City of Anniston 63
In $1,000,000 Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct & Nov 2010 vs 2011 Anniston in $1,000,000 $1.40 $1.365 $1.383 $1.376 2010 2011 $1.35 $1.338 $1.30 Oct Nov Source: City of Anniston 64
In $ Millions Sales, Use, Rental Tax Annual Total FY04-05 FY10-11 Oxford in $1,000,000 $25 $24.25 $24.30 $23 $20.78 $22.59 $20 $18 $16.62 $17.34 $17.89 $15 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 Source: City of Oxford 65
% Change Sales, Use Rental Tax Monthly Change FY 09-10 vs FY 10-11 Oxford (Oct-Sept) in Percent 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 1% -1% 5% 2% -1% -1% -1% 4% 1% 0% -5% -1% Source: City of Oxford 66
In $ Millions Sales, Use & Rental Tax Oct & Nov 2010 vs 2011 Oxford in $1,000,000 $2.0 $1.9 $1.88 $1.95 2010 2011 $1.86 $1.8 $1.81 $1.7 Oct Nov Source: City of Oxford 67
In $ Millions Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY03-04 FY10-11 Jacksonville in $1,000,000 $6.5 $5.5 $5.15 $5.29 $5.21 $5.24 $5.42 $4.5 $4.26 $3.88 $3.5 $3.09 $2.5 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 Source: City of Jacksonville 68
% Change Sales, Use Tax Monthly Change FY 09-10 vs FY 10-11 Jacksonville (Oct-Sept) in Percent 15% 10% 5% 2% 9% 9% 5% 6% 11% 11% 0% -5% -10% -4% -3%-1% -1% -1% Source: City of Jacksonville 69
In $ Thousands Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct, Nov, Dec 2010 vs 2011 Jacksonville in $1,000 $575 $525 $475 $483 $496 2010 2011 $450 $457 $466 $542 $425 $375 Oct Nov Dec Source: City of Jacksonville 70
In $ Millions Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY09-10 FY10-11 Piedmont in $1,000,000 $1.38 $1.36 $1.36 $1.34 $1.33 $1.32 $1.30 Source: City of Jacksonville 09-10 10-11 71
% Change Sales, Use Tax Monthly Change FY 09-10 vs FY 10-11 Piedmont (Oct-Sept) in Percent 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 1% 24% 15% 4% -6% 0% -5% 3% 0% 5% -2% -12% Source: City of Jacksonville 72
In $ Thousands Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct & Nov 2010 vs 2011 $120 $115 $110 $105 Piedmont in $1,000 2010 $115 2011 $104 $105 $105 $100 Oct Nov Source: City of Jacksonville 73
Sales, Use Tax Annual Total FY07-08 FY10-11 Weaver in $1,000 $250 $240 $238.36 $241.04 $234.03 $230 $220 $222.75 $210 Source: City of Jacksonville 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 74
% Change Sales, Use Tax Monthly Change FY 09-10 vs FY 10-11 Weaver (Oct-Sept) in Percent 160% 120% 80% 40% 0% -40% -80% -120% -78% 111% -13% 18% -4% -42% 29% 24% -31% 62% 40% 18% Source: City of Weaver 75
In $ Thousands Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct & Nov 2010 vs 2011 Weaver in $1,000 $36 $28 $20 $12 $33 2010 2011 $20 $19 $15 $4 Oct Nov Source: City of Jacksonville 76
Calhoun Housing YTD Nov 2010 vs YTD Nov 2011 YTD Nov 2010 YTD Nov 2011 % Change Total Homes Sold 889 880-1.0% Avg Selling Price $111,587 $114,017 +2.2% Avg Days on Market 109 132 +21.1% Nov 2010 Nov 2011 Total Homes Listed 1,222 1,201-17.2% Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center 77
Home Sales/Month Number of Home Sales Per Month Calhoun County 135.0 120.0 105.0 90.0 75.0 60.0 103.5 93.7 79.7 81.9 2001-2011 122.2 113.8 108.5 88.1 93.5 Avg - - 76.4 80.8 80.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate 78
AHA Index Higher is Better Calhoun County Housing Affordability Index 3 rd Q 2010 275 270.2 250 225 200 205.8 196.7 202.3 199.8 175 150 Calhoun Bham Auburn Alabama U.S. Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center 79
Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility September 22, 2011 Source: Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility 80
Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility January 6, 2011 Since 1st burn Aug 9, 2003, have destroyed All GB Munitions/Nerve Agent All VX Munitions & 196,925 gallons VX All Mustard Munitions and Agent 100% Chemical Weapons Storage risk 100% stockpile destroyed Source: Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility 81
Calhoun County: Summing it Up Membership Survey- Positive Population- Up. Near record levels Employment- Up. Jan-Dec plus 1,500 Unemployment- Still high but down Dec. 2011 (7.5%) vs Dec. 2010 (8.7%) Recent trend has been down due to Labor Force Housing Market- Still down 82
State of Alabama Update Demographics Economic Indicators Education Achievemens 2003 Other Issues 83
Alabama 2010 Census Total Pop. by County State Pop: 4,779,736 9.2% 9.6% 12.1% 8.9% 658,466 250,000 to 449,999 1000,000 to 249,999 50,000 to 99,999 9,045 to 49,999 Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations 84
Alabama 2010 Census % Change by County State Pop: +7.5% 25.0% to 36.1% 10.0% to 24.9% 0.0 % to 9.9% -10.0% to -0.1% -16.1% to -10.1% 9.2% 9.6% 12.1% 8.9% Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations 85
In Millions Civilian Labor Force Alabama 2004-2011 in Millions 2.20 2.15 2.10 Seasonally Adjusted 2.17 2.12 2.11 2.18 2.16 2.11 2.10 2.15 2.05 2.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations 86
In Millions Employment for Alabama 2004-2011 in Millions 2.16 2.08 2.00 1.92 1.84 2.01 2.04 2.09 2.10 2.05 Seasonally Adjusted 1.90 1.89 1.95 1.76 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations 87
In Millions Employment for Alabama Jan Dec 2011 in Millions 1.98 1.96 1.94 1.92 Seasonally Adjusted 1.92 1.93 1.94 1.951.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.90 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations 88
% Unemployed Unemployment Rate for Alabama 2004-2011 10% 8% Seasonally Adjusted 9.8% 9.9% 9.4% 6% 4% 5.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 5.4% 2% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Labor 89
Percent 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 9.3% 9.0% Unemployment Rate for Alabama vs United States Alabama United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Jan 2011 Dec 2011 Seasonally Adjusted 8.5% 8.1% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 90
# of Weeks U.S. Average Weeks Unemployed 1982 2011 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 91
Alabama, Regional and National Economic Drivers Changes in Sector Employment Workforce Dynamics Income and GDP Dr. Richard Cobb, College of Commerce & Business Administration 92
Employed in Millions Total U.S. Non- Farm Employment 1946 2011 in Millions 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 93
Participation Rate % U.S. Labor Participation Rate Percent 1946 2011 69 67 65 63 61 59 57 55 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 94
Millions U.S. Labor Force 1990-2011 160 140 120 100 80 60 Labor Force Employed Not in Labor Force 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 95
U.S. Employment 2001-2011 Assume Current 64.1 Percent Labor Participation 20 16 Rate Unemployed - Millions Unemployment Rate - Percent 12 8 4 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: Bureau of labor Statistics 96
U.S. Employment 2001-2011 Assume 67.1 Percent Labor Participation Rate 20 16 Unemployed - Millions Unemployment Rate - Percent 12 8 4 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: Bureau of labor Statistics 97
Employment in Millions Total U.S. Non-Farm Goods Producing Employment 1981-2011 in Millions 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 98
Percent U.S. Goods Producing Employment as % of All 30% Non-Farm Employment 1981-2011 25% 20% 15% 10% 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 99
Employment in Millions Alabama Non-Farm Employment 1990 2011 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 100
Employment in Millions U.S. Employment by Sector 1981 2011 in Millions 25 20 15 10 5 Goods Manuf. Prof/Bus Edu/Health Gov 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 101
Employment in 1,000s Alabama Employment by Sector 1990-2011 400 300 200 Professional/Business Education/Health Government Manufacturing 100 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 102
Employment in Millions U.S. Construction Employment 8.0 1982 2011 in Millions 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 103
Employment in Thousands Alabama Construction Employment 120 1990 2011 100 80 60 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 104
% of Population Employed 66 U.S. Employment Population Ratio 1975-2011 64 62 60 58 56 54 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 105
% of Population Employed Alabama Employment Population 64 Ratio 1982-2011 60 56 52 48 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 106
In $Billions Alabama Gross Domestic Product 1981 2010 $200 $160 $120 $80 $40 $0 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 107
35 25 Alabama Components of GDP $Billions of Current Dollars Government Manufacturing Education/Health 1997-2010 15 5 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 108
Per Capita Income Alabama vs U.S. 1990-2010 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 U.S. Alabama 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 109
Per Capita Income Alabama as Percent of U.S. 86% 1990-2010 84% 82% 80% 78% 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 110
% HS or Better Education High School or Better Regional Comparison 90 85 80 84.6 84.9 82.9 83 80.881.3 82.2 81.8 80.5 78.9 79.3 75 70 US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Source: U.S. Census Bureau 111
Unemployment Rate % Unemployment Rate Percent -Nov 2011 Regional Comparison 11 10 9 8 8.6 8.7 8.0 10.0 9.9 6.9 10.5 10.0 9.9 9.1 8.1 7 6 US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Source: U.S. Census Bureau 112
% Pop Change Percent Population Change Regional Comparison 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 2000-2010 17.6 18.3 20.6 18.5 15.3 11.5 9.7 9.1 7.5 4.3 1.4 US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Source: U.S. Census Bureau 113
Per Capital Income in Thousands Per Capita Income 2010 Regional Comparison in $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $Thousands $41 $34 $33 $39 $35 $38 $31 $36 $33 $35 $39 $0 US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Source: U.S. Census Bureau 114
Alabama, Regional and National Economic Drivers Housing Dr. Richard Cobb, College of Commerce & Business Administration 115
GDP and Building Permits U.S. and Ala 1980-2010 0% US GDP % US Permits (mil) Ala Permits (1000) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Census Bureau 116
Growth of Housing Vacancies 19 17 U.S. 1990-2010 Total # of Units Vacant (mil) 15 13 11 9 % of Units Vacant 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 117
Housing Statistics for Alabama YTD Nov 10 vs YTD Nov 11 YTD Nov 2010 YTD Nov 2011 % Change Total Homes Sold 33,475 34,016 1.62% Avg Selling Price $145,239 $141,337-2.69% Avg Days on Market 147.6 160.0 8.39% Nov 2010 only Nov 2011 only Total Homes Listed 38,890 34,273-11.87% Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate 118
Home Sales/Month Number of Home Sales Per Month Alabama 2001-2011 5200 4550 3900 4,994 4,971 4,807 4,539 3,960 3817 Avg - - 3,641 3250 2,922 2,985 3,020 3,051 3,096 2600 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate 119
Ave Days on Market Homes Avg Days on Market Alabama 2001-2011 170 160 150 140 130 120 143 Avg - - 153 156 151 141 135 130 122 123 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 151 148 160 Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate 120
% Negative by State Percent Negative Equity Mortgages by State Quarter 3, 2011 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 58% 47% 44% 35% 30% 30% NV AZ FL MI CA GA Source: Core Logic 121
% Negative by State Regional Negative Equity Mortgages by State 50% Quarter 1, 2011 44 40% 30% 20% 10% 30 22 11 10 12 16 15 10 0% 0 0 US AL AR FL GA LA MS NC SC TN TX Source: Core Logic 122
Alabama, Regional and National Economic Drivers Energy Auto Manufacturing Sector CAFÉ and Fuel Uncertainty Dr. Richard Cobb, College of Commerce & Business Administration 123
Retail Price* of Electricity Alabama vs. U.S. by Sector *Cents per Kilowatt-hour YTD Sept. 2011 Sector Alabama U.S. AL Rank Residential 11.05 11.79 22 Commercial 10.39 10.39 35 Industrial 6.35 6.96 21 All Sectors 9.17 10.06 27 Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) 124
2011 Price* of Electricity vs. Congressional Apportionment States Seats Lost Price* States Seats Gained Price* NY -2 16.16 TX +4 9.28 NJ -1 14.53 GA +1 9.81 MA -1 14.33 SC +1 8.88 PA -1 10.56 FL +2 10.78 MI -1 10.42 AZ +1 9.89 IL -1 9.06 NV +1 9.23 OH -2 9.09 UT +1 7.13 IA -1 7.71 WA +1 6.73 MO -1 8.56 LA -1 7.84 Avg. 10.83 Avg. 8.97 *Cents per Kilowatt-hour Source: EIA, US Census Bureau 125
Southeast Auto Industry Ford GM Nissan 55 20 GM GM Toyota 22 Ford Mercedes 65 Peterbilt Volkswagen Nissan BMW 65 59 GM 85 20 Honda 65 85 Toyota Hyundai Kia Volvo/Mack Trucks Freightliner Freightliner Freightliner Custom Chassis Sprinter Atlantic Ocean Heavy Truck Auto and Light Truck Gulf Of Mexico 0 50 100 MILES Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama *Assembles Dodge Sprinter vans 126
In Millions U.S. Motor Vehicle Production 2000-2010 14 12 10 8 6 4 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) 127
In Thousands Alabama Motor Vehicle Production 2004-2010 800 600 400 200 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama (EDPA), Alabama Automotive Manufacturers Association (AAMA) 128
Motor Vehicle Issues Ethanol Blending Requirements 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Ethanol Billions of Gallons Ethanol Blended % 2002-2011 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: EIA 129
Anniston Regional Airport Current Operations Airfield 623 Acres Approximately 32,000 Annual Operations 34 Based Aircraft Part 139 (Unscheduled Commercial Service) FAA Designated C-III (Up To 118 Wingspan) Runway 5/23 7,000 x 150 Precision Approach (ILS) to Runway 5 Source: Garver Engineering 130
ANNISTON REGIONAL AIRPORT TERMINAL AREA IMPROVEMENTS NEAR TERM Source: Garver Engineering 131
State of Alabama Summary Population Census Up Regional Pop Growth low Employment Up Unemployment Rate Improved Education Regional Avg. Income Regional Avg. Auto Base Growing Auto Fuel Uncertainty Sector Employment Risk Housing Stable Workforce Participation Population Ratio Trend 132
2012 Economic Update Calhoun County & State of Alabama Calhoun County Survey- Turning? Employment- Up Unemployment- Down Sales Tax- Up Housing- Off 1% State Survey-1 st Q Better Alabama Gross State Product Up State Tax Revenues Up Housing- Up 133
Thanks to Sponsors of Economic Forum Presenting Sponsor Alabama Power Platinum Sponsor Regional Medical Center Gold Sponsor AOD Federal Credit Union B.R. Williams Trucking Cheaha Bank Wells Fargo Bank Silver Sponsor Sunny King Automotive Group 134
Appendices Appendix A: Full Chamber Membership Survey Results (Jan 2012) Appendix B: esri Census 2010 Summary Profile for Calhoun County Appendix C: esri Census 2010 Sample Retail Market Potential Report (Jacksonville) 135
Appendix A: Full Chamber Membership Survey Results (Jan 2012) 136
Appendix B: esri Census 2010 Summary Profile for Calhoun County 137
Appendix C: esri Census 2010 Sample Retail Market Potential Report (Jacksonville) 138
Projected Job Growth by State through 2015 0.5-0.7% 0.8-1.0% 1.0-1.3% 1.3-1.6% 1.7-2.0% 139