Global Exhibition Barometer 13 th edition A UFI report based on the results of a survey conducted in June among UFI*, SISO**, AFIDA*** & EXSA**** Members (*) Global (**) USA (***) Central & South America (****) Southern Africa
Table of contents INTRODUCTION page 3 RESULTS BY REGION 1. Gross Turnover page 4 2. Operating Profit page 7 3. Perception of the economic crisis page 10 4. Most important business issues page 13 DETAILED RESULTS FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES page 15 (China, South Africa, Germany, Russian Federation, USA, Turkey, Singapore) CONCLUSION page 22 APPENDIX: answers per country/region page 23 2
Introduction Since 2009, UFI has regularly assessed the impact of the economic downturn by developing a Crisis Barometer based on the perceptions of UFI members in 84 countries and including, for the USA, an identical survey conducted by SISO (Society of Independent Show Organizers). The scope of the survey has since been broadened to include members of AFIDA (Asociacion International de Ferias de America) in Central and South America and of EXSA (Exhibition and Events Association of Southern Africa). Results of this survey were initially published in February, May & August 2009. This report evolved as the Global Exhibition Barometer, with two surveys per year. The last reports were issued in January and July 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and in January. The current document presents the results of the 13 th Global Exhibition Barometer survey, conducted in June. Where possible it identifies trends drawing on the results of the previous surveys. Important remark It should be noted that the number of replies to the current survey (210 from 63 countries) provides representative results. However, the consolidated regional results may not reflect the situation of specific countries in that region. This is why a second set of results, specific to those countries where a significant number of answers were obtained (China, South Africa, Germany, Russian Federation, USA, Turkey, Singapore), are included for the first time. UFI will further develop the next edition of the report in order to provide an uniformed format, whenever possible. Questions related to this survey should be addressed to Christian Druart at chris@ufi.org. 3
1. Gross Turnover The 13th Barometer surveyed the evolution of participants turnover expectations for and the first half of as compared to their expectations during the same period the year before (regardless of possible biennial effects). The charts presented on the next two pages combine these results with those of previous surveys for the 2008- period. The first chart presents the percentage of companies declaring an increase in their turnover. The charts on the following page detail these results, adding the percentage of companies declaring decreases in their turnover and the percentage of unknown answers. Survey results indicate: The outlook since 2011 remains positive with a majority of companies in all regions declaring turnover increases and projections indicate that this is expected to continue in the coming year. An average 7 companies out of 10 in all regions declare increases for, except in the Middle East & Africa where 8 companies out of 10 do. A slight slowdown is currently anticipated for the first of, with only 6 companies out of 10 from all regions declaring an increase of their turnover. When looking at detailed country results for the coming year (pages 15 to 21): - An average 8 companies out of 10 declare increases in the USA, 7 out of 10 in Germany, Turkey and South Africa, 6 in China and 5 in Russia. For Singapore, this rate appears to change from 9 companies out of 10 for the second half of to only 5 for the first half of. - It should be noted that a significant level of uncertainty exists in several countries for the projection in the turnover for the first half of : 33% in Singapore, 29% in Turkey, 27 in Russia and 25% in China. 4
% of companies declaring an increase in turnover when compared to their projections for the same period the year before (regardless of possible biennial effects) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Americas Middle East & Africa Asia & Pacific Europe 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% bef. 31 Dec. 2008 1st half 2009 2nd half 2009 1st half 2010 2nd half 2010 1st half 2011 2nd half 2011 1st half 2012 2nd half 2012 1st half 2013 2nd half 2013 1st half 2nd half 1st half As declared in previous surveys As declared in June 5
How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the year before? I don t know Decrease: 10% or more Decrease: less than 10% Increase Americas Europe 28% 21% 27% 15% 37% 20% 15% 45% 49% 64% 66% 61% 55% 59% 55% 70% 42% 55% 40% 69% 79% 79% 79% 58% 56% 72% 77% 67% 65% 65% 27% 41% 37% 34% 31% 23% 23% 23% 32% 31% 30% 16% 9% 20% 65% 57% 30% 24% 33% Bef.31 Dec.08 2009 Asia/Pacific 31% 30% 38% 24% 5% 32% 38% 22% 27% 16% 16% 23% 7% 5% 5% 16% 23% 12% 10% 6% 5% 11% 8% 8% 2010 2011 As declared in previous surveys 2012 2013 As declared in June 6% 27% 36% 39% 48% 21% 20% 13% 11% 16% 14% 10% 15% 14% 20% 17% 6% 6% Bef.31 Dec.08 2009 2010 As declared in previous surveys Middle East & Africa 2011 2012 2013 As declared in June 3% 21% 28% 35% 59% 29% 74% 84% 80% 82% 79% 75% 81% 79% 72% 69% 71% 43% 57% 64% 64% 62% 57% 63% 76% 63% 63% 76% 84% 62% 48% 42% 27% Bef.31 Dec.08 2009 20% 8% 14% 15% 18% 15% 6% 8% 6% 3% 3% 10% 13% 16% 19% 19% 6% 5% 9% 12% 6% 2% 2010 2011 As declared in previous surveys 2012 2013 As declared in June Bef.31 Dec.08 2009 29% 18% 36% 23% 29% 32% 14% 26% 25% 14% 6% 27% 29% 28% 14% 18% 15% 14% 5% 10% 11% 12% 10% 10% 8% 2010 2011 As declared in previous surveys 2012 2013 As declared in June 6
2. Operating Profits The 13 th Global Barometer survey questioned the evolution of operating profits for 2013 and as compared to the previous year. The charts presented in the next two pages combine these results with those of previous surveys which provided the evolution of operating profits for since 2009. The first chart combines the results of companies declaring an increase of more than 10% and those declaring a stable result (between -10% and +10%) and the next chart identifies those with reductions in profits or losses. The results show that: Roughly 4 companies out of 10 in all regions declare an increase of more than 10% in annual profits in 2013 and. These results apply to the 3 major national markets where a large number of answers were received: 50% in Germany and in the USA and 41% in China; When looking at detailed country results (pages 15 to 21), changes can be identified for several countries: - The situation between 2013 and improves significantly in the USA (from 22% to 50%) and Turkey (from 14% to 62%) and slightly in South Africa (from 33% to 39%) and Germany (from 46% to 53%) - The situations appears to slowdown in Russia (from 70% to 13%) and China (from 52% to 25%) and, to some extend, in Singapore (from 66% to 57%). 7
Operating profits compared to the previous year Americas Asia & Pacific Europe Middle East & Africa 100% 90% 80% % of companies declaring stable profits (between -10% and +10%) or increases of more than 10% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% % of companies declaring profit increases of more than 10% 20% 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 8
Operating profits compared to the previous year 9% 8% 5% Americas 20% 12% 15% 7% 7% Europe 1% 3% 7% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3% 10% 3% 9% 11% 11% 19% 45% 33% 50% 20% 50% 48% Loss 37% 47% 33% 47% 43% 46% 36% 58% 60% 45% 38% 37% 9% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Asia/Pacific 2% 2% 6% 5% 3% 2% 3% 6% 4% 13% 9% 25% 34% 47% 43% 52% 55% 52% Reduced by more than 50% Reduced by 11-50% Stable (between -10% and +10%) Increase of more than 10% 43% 5% 33% 52% 35% 34% Middle East & Africa 42% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 4% 11% 5% 3% 3% 14% 8% 10% 10% 56% 46% 36% 54% 48% 45% 18% 44% 61% 43% 41% 32% 33% 50% 50% 32% 38% 42% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 9
3. Perceptions of the economic crisis Companies were asked their views on whether the impact of the economic crisis on their business was over or not. The chart on the next page presents the replies together with those declared in the 8 previous surveys. Around one company out of two from all regions except in Europe now consider that the economic crisis is over. In Europe, only 3 to 4 companies out of 10 do. The following page shows that the year when it is expected that the economic crisis will be over, by those who consider that it is not yet over, shifts again when compared with the results of previous surveys. The number of companies who believe that the crisis will end in has increased from 42% a year ago to 52%. 43% now believe that the impact of the economic crisis will only end after. When looking at detailed country results (pages 15 to 21), different levels of optimism appear, with the following proportions of respondents declaring that the impact of the economic crisis on their business is now over: 86% in Singapore, 70% in the USA, 50% in China or Turkey but only 47% in Germany, 40% in South Africa, 36% in China and 18% in Russia. 10
% of companies declaring over the last 9 Barometer surveys that the impact of the economic crisis on their exhibition business is now over 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Americas Middle East & Africa Asia & Pacific Europe 20% 10% 0% June 2010 Dec. 2010 June 2011 Dec. 2011 June 2012 Dec. 2012 June 2013 Dec. 2013 June 11
Anticipated end of the economic crisis as declared in the last 4 years by those who consider that it is not yet over 63% 52% 44% 37% 42% 43% June 2011 30% June 2012 June 2013 June 14% 10% 15% 15% 12% 9% 10% 5% 2% 2011 2012 2013 after 12
4. Most important business issues As in the earlier Global Barometer Surveys, companies were asked to identify the three most important issues for their business in the coming year from a proposed list of seven issues. The results are remarkably stable in all surveys, with around 80% of all answers relating to the following 4 issues: - State of the national/regional economy (25% in the current survey) - Local/national competition from the exhibition industry (19% in the current survey) - Internal management challenges (17% in the current survey) - Global economic uncertainty (17% in the current survey). Environmental challenges (customer expectations, regulations, etc.) and Other media issues - Competition from other media (ex. internet, virtual trade shows, social media) or Integration with other media (ex. internet, virtual trade shows, social media) - are currently considered as less critical. The next slide shows the three most important issues selected. When looking at detailed country results (pages 15 to 21), the 4 main issues identified at global level remain the same, except in China, where the Environmental challenges join the top 4 issues with 15% of answers which also appears very close to the other top 3 main issues (20% each). 13
Top 3 issues 25% 19% 17% 17% 8% 7% 5% 3% State of the national/regional economy Local/national competition from within the exhibition industry Internal management challenges (ex. finance, human resources, staff, training) Global economic uncertainty Environmental challenges (customer expectations, regulations, etc.) Competition with other media (ex. internet, virtual trade shows, social media) Integration with other media (ex. internet, virtual trade shows, social media) Other 14
Internal management challenges (ex. finance, human resources, staff, training) Local/national competition from within the exhibition industry State of the national/regional economy Global economic uncertainty Competition with other media (ex. internet, virtual trade shows, social media) Integration with other media (same as above) Environmental challenges (customer expectations, regulations, etc.) Other Detailed results for CHINA (26 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the year before? 8% 80% 63% 10% 21% 10% 8% H2 25% 60% 15% I don t know Increase Decrease: less than 10% Decrease: 10% or more % of companies declaring that the impact of the economic crisis on their exhibition business is now over and anticipated end by those who consider that it is not yet over 36% 0% 4% 32% 64% 24% Yes I don't know No, in No, in No, after 4% No, I don't know when Operating profits compared to the previous year Loss Top 3 issues 20% 20% 20% 4% 4% 4% Reduced by more than 50% 12% 15% 44% 67% Reduced by 11-50% 5% 7% 1% 52% 25% 2013 Stable (between -10% and +10%) Increase of more than 10% 15
Internal management challenges (ex. finance, human resources, staff, training) Local/national competition from within the exhibition industry State of the national/regional economy Global economic uncertainty Competition with other media (ex. internet, virtual trade shows, social media) Integration with other media (same as above) Environmental challenges (customer expectations, regulations, etc.) Other Detailed results for SOUTH AFRICA (20 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the year before? 72% 80% 63% I don t know Increase % of companies declaring that the impact of the economic crisis on their exhibition business is now over and anticipated end by those who consider that it is not yet over 40% 30% 55% 17% 24% 5% 11% 15% 13% Decrease: less than 10% Decrease: 10% or more 5% 10% 10% 5% H2 Yes I don't know No, in No, in No, after No, I don't know when Operating profits compared to the previous year 6% 67% 55% 33% 39% Loss Reduced by more than 50% Reduced by 11-50% Stable (between -10% and +10%) Top 3 issues 18% 28% 26% 16% 4% 0% 7% 2% 2013 Increase of more than 10% 16
Internal management challenges (ex. finance, human resources, staff, training) Local/national competition from within the exhibition industry State of the national/regional economy Global economic uncertainty Competition with other media (ex. internet, virtual trade shows, social media) Integration with other media (same as above) Environmental challenges (customer expectations, regulations, etc.) Other Detailed results for GERMANY (15 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the year before? 7% I don t know % of companies declaring that the impact of the economic crisis on their exhibition business is now over and anticipated end by those who consider that it is not yet over 47% 53% 86% 72% 72% Increase 27% 27% 21% 7% 14% 7% 14% Decrease: less than 10% Decrease: 10% or more 0% 0% 0% H2 Yes I don't know No, in No, in No, after No, I don't know when Operating profits compared to the previous year 8% 23% 23% 8% 8% 31% Loss Reduced by more than 50% Reduced by 11-50% Top 3 issues 20% 18% 16% 16% 5% 11% 5% 9% 46% 53% Stable (between -10% and +10%) 2013 Increase of more than 10% 17
Internal management challenges (ex. finance, human resources, staff, training) Local/national competition from within the exhibition industry State of the national/regional economy Global economic uncertainty Competition with other media (ex. internet, virtual trade shows, social media) Integration with other media (same as above) Environmental challenges (customer expectations, regulations, etc.) Other Detailed results for RUSSIA (11 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the year before? 55% 27% 18% 18% 46% 27% 18% 9% 9% H2 27% 46% Operating profits compared to the previous year 30% 25% I don t know Increase Decrease: less than 10% Decrease: 10% or more Loss Reduced by more than 50% % of companies declaring that the impact of the economic crisis on their exhibition business is now over and anticipated end by those who consider that it is not yet over 63% 18% Top 3 issues 9% 0% 18% Yes I don't know No, in No, in No, after 30% 30% 27% 27% 27% No, I don't know when 62% 70% 13% 2013 Reduced by 11-50% Stable (between -10% and +10%) Increase of more than 10% 7% 0% 0% 7% 0% 18
Internal management challenges (ex. finance, human resources, staff, training) Local/national competition from within the exhibition industry State of the national/regional economy Global economic uncertainty Competition with other media (ex. internet, virtual trade shows, social media) Integration with other media (same as above) Environmental challenges (customer expectations, regulations, etc.) Other Detailed results for USA (10 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the year before? I don t know % of companies declaring that the impact of the economic crisis on their exhibition business is now over and anticipated end by those who consider that it is not yet over 70% 30% 90% 80% 80% Increase 10% 10% 10% H2 20% Decrease: less than 10% Decrease: 10% or more 0% 0% 10% 0% Yes I don't know No, in No, in No, after 20% No, I don't know when Operating profits compared to the previous year Loss Reduced by more than 50% Top 3 issues 21% 17% 33% 25% 78% 50% Reduced by 11-50% 0% 0% 4% 0% 22% 50% 2013 Stable (between -10% and +10%) Increase of more than 10% 19
Internal management challenges (ex. finance, human resources, staff, training) Local/national competition from within the exhibition industry State of the national/regional economy Global economic uncertainty Competition with other media (ex. internet, virtual trade shows, social media) Integration with other media (same as above) Environmental challenges (customer expectations, regulations, etc.) Other Detailed results for TURKEY (8 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the year before? 83% 14% 72% 17% 14% H2 29% 71% I don t know Increase Decrease: less than 10% Decrease: 10% or more % of companies declaring that the impact of the economic crisis on their exhibition business is now over and anticipated end by those who consider that it is not yet over 50% 0% 0% 50% 13% 13% Yes I don't know No, in No, in No, after 25% No, I don't know when Operating profits compared to the previous year Loss Top 3 issues 28% 26% 29% 57% 38% 62% Reduced by more than 50% Reduced by 11-50% Stable (between -10% and +10%) 18% 16% 4% 0% 7% 2% 14% 2013 Increase of more than 10% 20
Internal management challenges (ex. finance, human resources, staff, training) Local/national competition from within the exhibition industry State of the national/regional economy Global economic uncertainty Competition with other media (ex. internet, virtual trade shows, social media) Integration with other media (same as above) Environmental challenges (customer expectations, regulations, etc.) Other Detailed results for SINGAPORE (7 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the year before? 14% 33% I don t know % of companies declaring that the impact of the economic crisis on their exhibition business is now over and anticipated end by those who consider that it is not yet over 86% 100% 86% 50% H2 17% Increase Decrease: less than 10% Decrease: 10% or more 0% 0% 14% Yes I don't know No, in No, in No, after 0% 0% No, I don't know when Operating profits compared to the previous year 17% 14% 17% 29% Loss Reduced by more than 50% Reduced by 11-50% Top 3 issues 14% 19% 24% 24% 10% 0% 10% 0% 66% 57% Stable (between -10% and +10%) Increase of more than 10% 2013 21
Conclusion The 13 th Global Barometer survey, conducted in June, was completed by 210 companies from 63 countries. The results, combined with those of previous surveys, provide a general overview of the impact of the economic crisis on the exhibition industry since the end of 2008. Detailed national results, evaluated for the first time by countries with a significant level of replies, give further insights. At a global level: - The situation appears solid with a majority of companies declaring an increase in their turnover. Almost one company out of two declared an increase of annual profit of more than 10% since 2010; - However 56% of the respondents declare that the impact of the economic crisis on their business is not yet over, though most anticipate its end in ; - This situation related to the general economic climate is confirmed with replies received to the question on the most important business issues where the state of the national/regional economy and global economic uncertainty have been consistently selected as among the 3 most important business issues for the past 4 years. Local competition and internal management challenges were also considered significant. At the national level, significant variations are noted: - A relative slowdown is expected in China where indicators still remain positive: 25% of respondents declared an increase of 10% of their annual profit for, compared to 52% for 2013. 72% believe that the economic crisis is now over, or will be by the end of. Environmental challenges are also high on their list of issues. - The general outlook is more positive in the USA where 50% of respondents project an increase of more than 10% of their annual profits in and 80% of respondents anticipate an increase of turnover in the coming year. 7 companies out of 10 in the USA declare that the impact of the economic crisis is now over. - In Europe, Germany and Russia show contrasted results: 53% of respondents in Germany, but only 13% in Russia, project an increase of more than 10% of their annual profits in. One company out of two in Germany, but only one in five in Russia, declare that the impact of the economic crisis is now over. THE NEXT GLOBAL BAROMETER SURVEY WILL BE RUN IN DECEMBER PLEASE PARTICIPATE! 22
Appendix Number of survey replies per country/region - Total = 210 (in 63 countries/regions) North America 15 Europe 87 Middle East / Africa 38 Asia & Pacific 57 Canada 1 Albania 1 Bahrain 1 Australia 3 Mexico 3 Austria 2 Iran 2 Azerbaijan 1 USA 10 Belgium 5 Iraq 1 Hong-Kong 7 (*) 1 Croatia 1 Jordan 1 India 6 Czech Republic 1 Lebanon 1 Japan 2 Finland 1 Libya 1 Mainland China 18 Central & South America 13 France 3 Nigeria 1 Malaysia 3 Argentina 3 Georgia 1 Oman 4 New Zealand 1 Brazil 2 Germany 15 Saudi Arabia 2 Pakistan 2 Colombia 2 Greece 2 South Africa 20 Philippines 1 Cuba 1 Hungary 1 Syria 1 Singapore 7 Ecuador 2 Italy 6 United Arab Emirates 2 South Korea 2 Honduras 1 Kosovo 1 (*) 1 Taipei 1 Peru 1 Luxembourg 1 Thailand 1 (*) 1 Netherlands 4 (*) 2 Poland 3 Portugal 2 Romania 1 (*) several countries (regional answer) Russian Federation 11 Serbia 1 Slovenia 2 (**) a ratio was applied when necessary to the answers Spain 2 from South Africa in order not Sweden 3 to produce biased Switzerland 1 consolidated regional results Turkey 8 Ukraine 2 United Kingdom 5 (*) 1 23
Headquarters 17, rue Louise Michel F-92300 Levallois-Perret France Tel: (33) 1 46 39 75 00 Fax: (33) 1 46 39 75 01 E-mail: info@ufi.org Asia/Pacific Office Suite 4114, Hong Kong Plaza 188 Connaught Road West Hong Kong, China Tel: (852) 2525 6129 Fax: (852) 2525 6171 E-mail: asia@ufi.org Middle East/Africa Office Expo Centre Sharjah, UAE Tel / Fax: (971) 6 599 1352 E-mail: mea@ufi.org