Exhibition Barometer 17 th edition (July 2016) A UFI report based on the results of a survey conducted in June 2016 United Kingdom Central & South America Mexico Southern Africa US Thailand Brazil
Table of contents Page Introduction 3 Results by region 1. Gross Turnover development 4 2. Development of Operating Profits 6 3. Most important business 8 4. Recent security measures 11 Detailed results for selected countries or zones 13 North America: Mexico, US 14 Central and South America: Brazil, other countries in Central & South America 16 Europe: Germany, Italy, Russia, Turkey, UK, other countries in Europe 18 Africa: South Africa 24 Middle East: Iran, other countries in the Middle East 25 Asia/Pacific: China, Thailand, other countries in Asia/Pacific 27 Conclusion 30 Appendix: answers per country/region 31 2
Introduction Welcome to the 17 th edition of the UFI Exhibition Barometer survey. This study is based on a global survey, conducted in June 2016. It represents up to date information on the development and the outlook of the global exhibition industry as well as on 16 specific countries and zones. UFI began assessing the impact of the global economic conditions on the exhibition industry twice a year in 2009, based on perceptions of UFI members around the world. In 2010, this biannual survey became the UFI Exhibition Barometer. For the United States, this survey includes SISO Members (Society of Independent Show Organizers) and the scope of the Research has since been broadened to include members of AFIDA (Asociación Internacional de Ferias de América), AMPROFEC (Asociación Mexicana de Profesionales de Ferias y Exposiciones y Convenciones) and UBRAFE (União Brasileira dos Promotores Feiras) in Central and South America and of EXSA (Exhibition and Events Association of Southern Africa) in South Africa. In this 17 th edition, Members from AEO (Association of Event Organisers, UK) and TEA (Thai Exhibition Association) have been included for the first time. Important remarks It should be noted that the number of replies to the current survey (262 from 56 countries - see full list on the page 31) provides representative results. However, the consolidated regional results may not reflect the situation of specific countries in that region. This is why the report also includes a set of detailed results for the 16 countries or zones where a significant number of answers were obtained are included (see list on the page 17). Also it should be noted that the answers to this survey were provided before the recent events in the UK (EU referendum) and Turkey (terrorist attacks). Questions related to this survey can be addressed to Christian Druart, UFI Research Manager, at chris@ufi.org. 3
1. Gross Turnover development The 17 th Barometer surveyed the evolution of participants gross turnover expectations for the two halves of 2016 and the first half of 2017 compared to their turnover during the same period in the previous year (regardless of possible biennial effects). The chart on the next page presents the percentage of companies declaring an increase in their turnover. It combines these results with those of previous surveys since 2008. It does not take into account the unknown or not applicable answers see footnote. Survey results indicate a variety of current regional around the globe: In North America, 7 to 9 companies out of 10 expect increase in turnover for all three periods; In Europe, this is also the case for the UK. In Italy and Turkey this situation is only reached with time. In Germany, less than 1 company out of 2 anticipates a growth for the first half of 2017. In Russia,(only 1 company out of 2 on average expects increase in turnover for all three periods; In Asia/Pacific, 2 to 3 companies out of 10 have uncertainty as to their turnover for the first half of 2017, whereas for 2016, 5 to 6 companies out of 10 in China and most other Asian countries expect an increase. In Thailand however, the situation is more contrasted; In the Middle East and Africa, 3 to 4 companies out of 10 have uncertainty as to their turnover for the first half of 2017, whereas for 2016, 7 to 8 companies out of 10 in Iran and 4 to 5 in other countries expect an increase; In Central and South America, a majority of companies anticipate decreases in 2016, but they are more confident for the first half of 2017; Footnote: The charts included in the second part of this report ( Detailed results for selected countries or zones ) detail these results, adding the percentage of companies declaring decreases in their turnover and the percentage of unknown answers. 4
% of companies declaring an increase in turnover when compared to their projections for the same period the year before (regardless of possible biennial effects) 10 9 8 7 6 Americas Europe Asia & Pacific Middle East & Africa 5 4 3 2 1 H2 2008 H1 2009 H2 2009 H1 2010 H2 2010 H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 As declared in previous surveys As declared in June 2016 5
2. Development of Operating Profits The 17 th Barometer survey questioned the evolution of operating profits for 2015 and 2016 compared to the previous year. The chart presented on the following page combines these results with those of previous surveys which track the development of operating profits since 2009. It highlights the results of companies declaring an increase of more than 1 and those declaring a more stable result (between -1 and +1) see footnote. The detailed results show that: More than 1 company out of 2 declare an increase of more than 1 in annual profits for 2015 and 2016 in Mexico, USA, the UK and most countries in Central and South America (but not in Brazil, see below); 3 to 5 companies out of 10 declare an increase of more than 1 in annual profits for 2015 and 2016 in most countries in Asia (except China, where only 2 to 3 do), the Middle East or Europe (but not in Russia and Turkey, see below); In Brazil, Russia and Turkey the levels of companies declaring an increase of more than 1 decrease sharply between 2015 and 2016. Footnote: The charts included in the second part of this report ( Detailed results for selected countries or zones ) detail these results, adding the percentage of companies with reductions in profits or losses. 6
Operating profits compared to the previous year Americas Asia & Pacific Europe Middle East & Africa 10 9 8 7 6 % of companies declaring: - stable profits (between -1 and +1) - or increases of more than 1 5 4 3 % of companies declaring: - profit increases of more than 1 2 1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 7
3. Most important business Companies were asked to identify the three most important for their business in the coming year from a predefined list of seven. Multiples choices were proposed to get further insight for some answers. As in previous surveys, around 8 of all answers relate to the following 4 : economy in ( in the current survey) economic ( in the current survey) from within the industry ( in the current survey) challenges ( in the current survey), where Human resources are named as the most important aspect. ( Responding to customer digitalization needs, New digital products or processes ), with other media ( Internet, Social media, Virtual trade shows or ) and ( Sustainability, Health & safety or ) appear as less important in the coming year. The next slide shows the consolidated global results, including further insights, where asked. The following pages details those results by region and by type of activity (for 3 main segments: Organiser, Venue only and Service provider only ). Results show that there are no significant differences based on these criteria, except for the which is not so present, generally speaking, in Middle East and Africa and also among Venues only, but receives vey high relevance in Germany (19%). 8
Top : global results 25% 2 19% Top ( : results from last survey conducted in December 2015) 14% 9% 4% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% economy in economic from within the industry challenges with other media 77% 33% 12% 64% 3 36% 67% 52% 15% 15% 84% 4 16% Human resources Finance Responding to customer needs processes New digital products Internet Social media Virtual trade shows Sustainability Health & safety (multiple answers possible) 9
Most important : detail by region and type of activity for the five top identified globally 2 29% 25% Americas Europe Middle East & Africa Asia & Pacific 23% 22% 2 21% 19% 19% 15% 14% 12% 12% 11% 9% 2% economy in economic from within the industry challenges 31% 2 25% Organiser 22% 21% 22% 21% 19% 15% 15% 15% Venue only Service provider only 1 9% 4% 4% 2% 2% 7% 6% 4% economy in home market economic from within the industry challenges with other media 10
5. Recent security measures This question aims to assess the actions launched recently in the context of the past terrorists attacks in several places across the world. The survey results show that 6 companies out of 10 on average have taken recent actions (and even 7 in Europe and North America). Additional measures include additional screening at event/venue entrances for visitors (2), for exhibitors (15%), additional controls on site during the event (25%), additional information for attendees (21%), checking the lists of preregistered participants in liaison with the police/defense (6%) or other measures (such as police presence in uniform or not and new video devices). Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? If so, please identify these actions? Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS 2 25% 21% Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities 6% 15% measures 42% 11
Recent security measures: detail by region Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS 1 2 2 35% 21% 2 3 1 16% 22% 32% Americas 11% 15% Europe Middle East & Africa Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities 3% 9% 7% 9% Asia / Pacific measures 7% 7% 36% 4 41% 5 12
Part 2: Detailed results for 12 selected countries or zones North America: Central and South America: Europe: Africa: Middle East: Asia/Pacific: Mexico US Brazil countries in Central & South America Germany Italy Russia Turkey United Kingdom countries in Europe South Africa Iran countries in the Middle East China Thailand countries in Asia/Pacific 13
Detailed results for MEXICO (13 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? 83% 67% 33% 1 8 1 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 Increase less than 1 1 or more Top ( 16% economy in 22% economic : global) 19% from within the industry 25% challenges 9% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% with other media Operating profits compared to the previous year 36% 64% 1 1 1 7 2015 2016 Loss more than 5 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 9% 1 1 36% 45% 55% 14
Detailed results for UNITED STATES (16 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? 7% Top ( 3 : global) 86% 93% 86% Increase less than 1 15% 1 1 4% 5% 4% 3% 3% 14% 7% 7% H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 1 or more economy in economic from within the industry challenges with other media Operating profits compared to the previous year 2 3 45% Loss more than 5 Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS 23% 23% 3 5 55% 2015 2016 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 15% 15% 3 15
Detailed results for BRAZIL (11 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? Top ( 33% : global) 62% 33% 33% 3 34% 7 3 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 Increase less than 1 1 or more economy in economic 23% from within the industry challenges 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% with other media Operating profits compared to the previous year Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? 1 5% Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS 5 4 5 5% 25% 15% 2015 2016 Loss more than 5 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 9% 9% 1 45% 16
Detailed results for the other countries in Central and South America (12 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? 3 12% 5 1 1 36% 45% 6 2 9% 1 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 Increase less than 1 1 or more Top ( 31% economy in 7% economic : global) 1 from within the industry 21% 21% challenges 4% 3% 4% with other media 7% 3% Operating profits compared to the previous year Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? 1 12% Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS 22% 3 6 25% 5 2015 2016 Loss more than 5 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 11% 11% 7 17
Detailed results for GERMANY (17 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? 7% 14% 81% 6% 93% 43% 14% 29% H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 Increase less than 1 1 or more Top ( 21% economy in 26% economic : global) from within the industry 9% challenges 19% 9% 4% 4% 4% with other media 3% Operating profits compared to the previous year Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? 6% Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS 33% Loss 34% 4 5 2015 2016 more than 5 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 25% 33% 18
Detailed results for ITALY (10 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? Top ( 33% : global) 57% 43% 67% 33% 100 % H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 Increase less than 1 1 or more economy in 25% economic from within the industry challenges 4% 4% 3% with other media Operating profits compared to the previous year Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? 5 33% 34% 33% 33% 2015 2016 Loss more than 5 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 25% 25% 3 3 19
Detailed results for RUSSIA (13 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? Top ( 33% 33% : global) 5 4 1 1 6 3 5 5 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 Increase less than 1 1 or more economy in economic from within the industry 1 challenges 3% 7% 4% 4% 3% with other media Operating profits compared to the previous year Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? 1 11% 46% 36% 7 11% 2015 2016 Loss more than 5 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 9% 1 36% 20
Detailed results for TURKEY (10 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? Top ( : global) 3 5 86% 86% 12% 14% 14% H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 Increase less than 1 1 or more 26% economy in 35% economic from within the industry 4% challenges 4% 4% 4% 3% with other media Operating profits compared to the previous year Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? 4 6 66% 2015 2016 Loss more than 5 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 11% 11% 33% 33% 44% 21
Detailed results for the UK (11 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? 7 11% 11% 9 100 % 1 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 Increase less than 1 1 or more Top ( 2 36% economy in : global) 12% 12% from within the industry 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% Operating profits compared to the previous year Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? 14% Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS 2 29% 57% 66% 2015 2016 Loss more than 5 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 1 2 3 3 4 22
Detailed results for the other countries in Europe (33 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? Top ( : global) 1 29% 2 77% 83% 7 23% 14% 3% 3% H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 Increase less than 1 1 or more economy in economic from within the industry 11% 12% challenges 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% 3% with other media Operating profits compared to the previous year Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? 19% Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS 43% 35% 46% 46% 46% 2015 2016 Loss more than 5 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 7% 25% 25% 54% 54% 23
Detailed results for SOUTH AFRICA (23 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? 3 5 5% 63% 2 3 21% 2 12% 11% 6% H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 Increase less than 1 1 or more Top ( 31% economy in 15% economic : global) 19% from within the industry 14% challenges 3% 5% 4% 4% with other media 1 3% 3% Operating profits compared to the previous year Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? 12% Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS 31% 5 6% 44% 44% 2015 2016 Loss more than 5 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 5% 11% 89% 24
Detailed results for IRAN (12 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? 67% 1 8 16% 1 4 6 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 Increase less than 1 1 or more Top ( 21% economy in 15% economic : global) 26% from within the industry 15% challenges 3% 3% 4% 4% with other media 9% 9% 3% Operating profits compared to the previous year Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? 1 22% Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS 1 Loss 3 34% more than 5 44% 5 2016 2015 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 9% 1 1 45% 25
Detailed results for other countries in the MIDDLE EAST (12 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? 5 29% 12% 3 3 14% 29% 25% 5 12% H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 Increase less than 1 1 or more Top ( economy in 22% economic : global) 19% from within the industry 1 challenges 1% 3% 4% 4% with other media 9% 4% 3% Operating profits compared to the previous year Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? 12% 2 Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS 12% Loss 55% 3 3 43% 29% 2016 2015 more than 5 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 9% 1 36% 26
Detailed results for CHINA (23 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? 5% 6 5 46% 3 4 15% 6% H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 Increase less than 1 1 or more Top ( 25% economy in 22% economic : global) 15% from within the industry challenges 7% 9% 4% 4% 4% with other media 5% 3% Operating profits compared to the previous year Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? 6% 7% 6% Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS 3 69% 53% 19% 2015 2016 Loss more than 5 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 5% 1 25% 3 3 35% 27
Detailed results for THAILAND (15 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? 1 67% 2 33% Increase Top ( 29% 23% : global) 2 14% 1 33% 36% 67% H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 less than 1 1 or more economy in economic from within the industry challenges 6% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% with other media Operating profits compared to the previous year Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? 11% Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS 5 42% 33% 23% 33% 2015 2016 Loss more than 5 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 15% 15% 54% 28
Detailed results for the other countries in Asia/Pacific (23 answers) How do you expect your turnover to change when compared to the same period the previous year? 64% 5 36% 6% 22% 22% 29% 5 14% 7% H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 Increase less than 1 1 or more Top ( economy in 22% 21% economic : global) from within the industry 14% challenges 1 4% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3% with other media Operating profits compared to the previous year Have you expanded security measures around your exhibitions / your venues in recent months? 6% Additional screening at entrances FOR VISITORS 1 43% 43% Loss 4 57% 35% 41% 2015 2016 more than 5 11-5 Stable (between -1 and +1) Increase of more than 1 Checking lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with the police/defence authorities measures 14% 14% 14% 29% 71% 29
Conclusion The Barometer survey has been measuring the pulse of the exhibition industry since 2008. The 17 th survey, conducted in June 2016, was answered by 262 companies from 56 countries. The results are detailed for 16 geographical zones, including 12 major national markets. Survey results reveals a number of key regional trends for the exhibition industry: In North America, the outlook is very positive: more than 8 companies out of 10 expect increase in turnover for 2016 and the first half of 2017 and more than 5 of those polled declare an increase of more than 1 in annual profits for 2015 and 2016. In Europe, UK - at the time of the survey, before the EU referendum - was expecting to perform in a positive way similar to North America, whereas good perspectives also appeared in several European markets. In Germany however, less than 5 of the survey participants anticipate a growth for the first half of 2017 compared to a cyclically strong 2016. In Turkey, the levels of companies declaring a profit increase of more than 1 decreases sharply between 2015 and 2016. The situation in Russia remains flat. In Central and South America, a majority of companies anticipate turnover decreases in 2016, but are more confident for the first half of 2017. Profits there are also expected to rise, with the notable exception of Brazil. In Asia as well as in the Middle East and Africa, 3 to 5 companies out of 10 declare an increase of more than 1 in annual profits for 2015 and 2016. The level is lower in China, where 2 to 3 do but 2 to 4 companies out of 10 report uncertainty regarding their turnover for the first half of 2017. In each region, the most important business remain related to the general economic situation with the state of the economy in, the global economic development uncertainty, the competition from within the industry, and internal challenges. Security is also high on the agenda with a large majority of companies declaring having implemented additional measures in the recent months, varying from additional screening for visitors and exhibitors to additional information for attendees, controls on site during the event and also, sometimes, checking the lists of pre-registered participants in liaison with government institutions. THE NEXT GLOBAL BAROMETER SURVEY WILL BE RUN IN DECEMBER 2016 PLEASE PARTICIPATE! 30
Appendix: Number of survey replies per country Total = 262 (in 56 countries) North America 32 Europe 94 Middle East 24 Canada 3 Austria 2 Bahrain 1 Mexico 13 Belgium 2 Iran 12 USA 16 Bulgaria 1 Iraq 1 Czech Republic 1 Lebanon 1 France 1 Oman 2 Georgia 1 Qatar 1 Central & South America 23 Germany 17 Saudi Arabia 2 Argentina 4 Greece 1 Tanzania 1 Brazil 11 Hungary 1 United Arab Emirates 3 Chile 2 Italy 10 Colombia 2 Montenegro 1 Cuba 1 Netherlands 4 Ecuador 2 Poland 2 Asia / Pacific 61 El Salvador 1 Portugal 2 Australia 2 Russian Federation 13 China 23 Slovenia 1 India 3 Spain 4 Japan 4 Africa 28 Sweden 4 Malaysia 1 Egypt 1 Switzerland 1 Pakistan 1 Libya 2 Turkey 10 Philippines 1 Mozambique 1 Ukraine 2 Singapore 9 South Africa 23 United Kingdom 11 South Korea 2 Sudan 1 (*) 2 Thailand 15 (*): several countries (regional answer) 31
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