MONTHLY MARKET MONITOR (M 3 ) December 2014 January 5, 2014 THE LATEST MONTHLY MARKET RETURNS FROM THE RICHARDSON GMP TEAM GLOBAL MARKETS AT A GLANCE Americas Level 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD BRIC Level 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD S&P/TSX Composite 14,632-0.8-2.2-3.4 7.4 7.4 Brazil 50,007-8.6-7.6-5.9-2.9-2.9 S&P/TSX Comp TR 44,591-0.4-1.5-2.0 10.6 10.6 Russia 791-18.8-29.6-42.1-45.2-45.2 S&P 500 2,059-0.4 4.4 5.0 11.4 11.4 India 27,499-4.2 3.3 8.2 29.9 29.9 S&P 500 Total Return 3,769-0.3 4.9 6.1 13.7 13.7 China 3,235 20.6 36.8 57.9 52.9 52.9 Dow Jones Ind Avg 17,823 0.0 4.6 5.9 7.5 7.5 NASDAQ Comp 4,736-1.2 5.4 7.4 13.4 13.4 MSCI Level 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD Mexico Bolsa 43,146-2.4-4.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 World 1,710-1.7 0.7-1.9 2.9 2.9 S&P/TSX Venture Composite 696-6.2-23.5-32.4-25.4-25.4 EAFE 1,775-3.5-3.9-10.0-7.3-7.3 Russell 2000 1,205 2.7 9.4 1.0 3.5 3.5 Emerging Markets 956-4.8-4.9-9.0-4.6-4.6 Europe Level 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD EURO STOXX 50 3,146-3.2-2.5-2.5 1.2 1.2 Foreign Indices in CAD$ 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD England (FTSE) 6,566-2.3-0.9-2.6-2.7-2.7 S&P 500 1.4 8.3 14.4 21.9 21.9 France (CAC 40) 4,273-2.7-3.2-3.4-0.5-0.5 S&P 500 Total Return 1.5 8.9 15.6 24.4 24.4 Germany (DAX) 9,6-1.8 3.5-0.3 2.7 2.7 EURO STOXX 50-4.3-3.0-6.2-2.5-2.5 Spain (IBEX) 10,2-4.6-5.0-5.9 3.7 3.7 MSCI World 0.1 4.5 6.8 12.6 12.6 MSCI EAFE -1.8-0.2-2.0 1.4 1.4 Asia Level 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD MSCI Emerging -3.1-1.3-0.9 4.3 4.3 Japan (Nikkei) 17,451-0.1 7.9 15.1 7.1 7.1 Hong Kong (Hang Seng) 23,605-1.6 2.9 1.8 1.3 1.3 Fixed Income Australia (ASX 200) 5,411 1.8 2.2 0.3 1.1 1.1 FTSE TMX Universe Bond 0.55 2.69 3.79 8.78 8.78 Source: Bloomberg, Richardson GMP Limited MARKET QUILT 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TSX Composite 13% -3% 30% 6% -14% -14% 24% 12% 22% 15% 7% -35% 31% 14% -11% 4% 10% 7% S&P 500 31% 27% 20% -10% -13% -23% 26% 9% 3% 14% 4% -38% 23% 13% 0% 13% 30% 11% NASDAQ 22% 40% 86% -39% -21% -32% 50% 9% 1% 10% 10% -41% 44% 17% -2% 16% 38% 13% U.S. Small Cap 21% -3% 20% -4% 1% -22% 45% 17% 3% 17% -3% -35% 25% 25% -5% 15% 37% 4% Europe 37% 32% 47% -3% -20% -37% 16% 7% 21% 15% 7% -44% 21% -6% -17% 14% 18% 1% Japan -21% -9% 37% -27% -24% -19% 24% 8% 40% 7% -11% -42% 19% -3% -17% 23% 57% 7% EAFE 0% 18% 25% -15% -23% -18% 35% 18% 11% 23% 9% -45% 28% 5% -15% 14% 19% -7% Emerging -13% -28% 64% -32% -5% -8% 52% 22% 30% 29% 36% -54% 74% 16% -20% 15% -5% -5% Canadian Short Bonds 4% 6% 4% 7% 9% 4% 4% 4% 2% 4% 5% 8% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% Canadian Long Bonds 19% 12% -6% 13% 5% 11% 8% 10% 15% 3% 5% 12% -5% 12% 20% 5% -9% 17% US Short Bonds 7% 7% 3% 8% 8% 6% 2% 1% 2% 4% 7% 7% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% US Long Bonds 15% 14% -9% 20% 4% 17% 2% 8% 6% 2% 10% 25% -13% 10% 29% 4% -13% 25% Gold -21% 0% 0% -5% 2% 25% 19% 6% 18% 23% 31% 6% 24% 30% 10% 7% -28% -2% S&P/TSX Venture 4% 63% 4% 23% 34% -5% -72% 91% 50% -35% -18% -24% -25%
SECTOR PERFORMANCE TSX Sector S&P 500 Sector Performance 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD Weight Performance 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD Weight Materials 0.7-7.6-17.3-4.5-4.5 10.1 Materials (US) -0.9-2.3-2.6 4.7 4.7 3.2 Energy -0.1-16.6-22.7-7.8-7.8 22.6 Energy (US) 0.3-11.3-19.4-10.0-10.0 8.3 Industrials -0.6-0.9 8.1 20.0 20.0 8.0 Industrials (US) -0.3 6.2 4.5 7.5 7.5 10.4 Consumer Disc 2.2 13.4 17.2 26.4 26.4 7.2 Consumer Disc (US) 0.8 8.3 8.2 8.0 8.0 12.1 Consumer Staples 7.9 19.8 34.1 46.9 46.9 4.5 Consumer Staples (US) -1.4 7.4 8.8 12.9 12.9 10.6 Health Care 0.7 15.3 23.8 30.2 30.2 3.4 Health Care (US) -1.5 7.0 12.4 23.3 23.3 13.9 Financials -3.2 1.0 2.9 9.8 9.8 35.3 Financials (US) 1.6 6.7 8.7 13.1 13.1 16.3 Info Tech 4.9 15.4 19.7 34.0 34.0 2.2 Info Tech (US) -1.7 4.9 9.4 18.2 18.2 19.8 Telecom Svs -1.4 9.6 7.6 10.5 10.5 4.5 Telecom Svs (US) -6.2-5.3-3.6-1.9-1.9 2.2 Utilities -2.1 4.0 3.3 11.3 11.3 2.3 Utilities (US) 3.2 12.2 6.8 24.3 24.3 3.1 COMMODITIES Energy Level 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD Precious Metals Level 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD Nat Gas (US/MMBtu) $2.89-29.3-31.8-36.6-33.8-33.8 Gold (US/oz) $1,184 0.7-2.3-10.5-1.9-1.9 WTI Crude (US/bbl) $53.27-19.6-40.4-47.1-41.6-41.6 Silver (US/oz) $15.60 0.3-8.8-26.3-20.2-20.2 Gasoline (USd/gal) 147.21-19.6-38.3-46.1-43.3-43.3 Grains Heating Oil (USd/gal) 183.36-14.5-31.2-39.0-38.1-38.1 Corn (US/bu) $3.97 5.7 23.8-6.4-5.9-5.9 Industrials Wheat (US/bu) $5. 2.2 23.4 4.4-2.6-2.6 Aluminum (US/lb) $0.83-8.7-6.6-3.9-3.2-3.2 Soybeans (US/bu) $10.19 0.3 11.6-27.2-22.3-22.3 Nickel (US/lb) $6.84-7.2-7.6-20.9 7.0 7.0 Livestock Copper (US/lb) $2.86-0.8-5.5-10.2-14.4-14.4 Hogs (US/lb) $0.81-8.0-10.2-11.1 0.8 0.8 Lead (US/lb) $0.84-8.4-11.5-14.5-16.3-16.3 Cattle (US/lb) $1.64-3.4-0.3 6.4 23.8 23.8 Tin (US/lb) $8. -4.2-4.5-13.9-13.2-13.2 Soft Commodities Zinc (US/lb) $0.99-1.7-4.8-1.8 6.0 6.0 Cocoa (US/MT) $2,910 2.4-10.7-6.8 8.5 8.5 Lumber (US/1000bf) $331 1.0-0.5-1.2-8.1-8.1 Sugar (USD/lb) $14.52-6.9-11.7-24.5-18.2-18.2 Cotton (USD/lb) 60.27 0.3-0.3-19.6-23.7-23.7 FCOJ (USD/lb) $139. -6.9-5.1-8.5-5.2-5.2 Coffee (USD/lb) $166.60-11.1-15.6-8.4 35.4 35.4 CURRENCIES AND BONDS Canadian Yields Current -1mo -3mo -6mo -12mo EFFAS Gov Bonds 1mo 3mo 6mo 12mo YTD 3M T-bills 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.95 0.92 All 0.28 2.19 3.17 7.13 7.13 2-yr Govt Bonds 1.01 0.99 1.12 1.11 1.14 1-5 years 0.03 0.71 1.01 2.17 2.17 5-yr Govt Bonds 1.34 1.38 1.63 1.53 1.94 5-10 years -0.11 2.05 2.93 7.82 7.82 10-yr Govt Bonds 1.79 1.86 2.15 2.24 2.76 10+ years 1.00 5.14 7.67 16.77 16.77 30-yr Govt Bonds 2.34 2.42 2.67 2.78 3.23 Currency Levels Current -1mo -3mo -6mo -12mo U.S. Yields Canadian Spot 1.1621 1.1416 1.1198 1.0671 1.0623 3M T-bills 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.07 Cdn - Euro 0.7112 0.7035 0.7071 0.6844 0.6849 2-yr Treasury Bonds 0.66 0.47 0.57 0.46 0.38 Cdn - Australian 1.0530 1.0298 1.0211 0.9935 1.0557 5-yr Treasury Bonds 1.65 1.48 1.76 1.63 1.74 Euro - US 1.2098 1.2452 1.2631 1.3692 1.3743 10-yr Treasury Bonds 2.17 2.16 2.49 2.53 3.03 Yen - US 119.78 118.63 109.65 101.33 105.31 30-yr Treasury Bonds 2.75 2.89 3.20 3.36 3.97 British Pound - US 1.5577 1.5645 1.6213 1.7106 1.6557 Trade Weighted Dollar.27 88.36 85.94 79.78.04 Source: Bloomberg, Richardson GMP Limited
Long Term Returns (local annualized) YTD 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 15yr S&P/TSX Comp (price) 7.4 7.4 8.5 7.0 4.5 0.8 4.7 3.8 S&P/TSX Total Return 10.6 10.6 11.8 10.2 7.5 3.8 7.6 6.2 S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP IDX -25.4-25.4-24.5-22.3-14.5-18.2-9.0 S&P 500 (price) 11.4 11.4 20.2 17.9 13.0 4.9 5.4 2.3 S&P 500 Total Return 13.7 13.7 22.7 20.4 15.5 7.3 7.7 4.2 NASDAQ (price) 13.4 13.4 25.2 22.0 15.9 8.6 8.1 1.0 Europe EURO STOXX 50 1.2 1.2 9.3 10.7 1.2-4.7 0.6-2.9 S&P Europe 350 4.7 4.7 10.7 11.7 6.0-1.0 3.0-0.7 England (FTSE) -2.7-2.7 5.5 5.6 3.9 0.2 3.1-0.4 France (CAC 40) -0.5-0.5 8.3 10.6 1.7-3.8 1.1-2.2 Germany (DAX) 2.7 2.7 13.5 18.5 10.5 2.8 8.7 2.3 Spain (IBEX) 3.7 3.7 12.2 6.3-3.0-5.4 1.2-0.8 Asia Japan (NIKKEI) 7.1 7.1 29.6 27.3 10.6 1.9 4.3-0.5 Hong Kong (Hang Seng) 1.3 1.3 2.1 8.6 1.5-2.3 5.2 2.2 Australia (ASX 200) 1.1 1.1 7.9 10.1 2.1-2.2 2.9 3.7 BRIC Brazil -2.9-2.9-9.4-4.1-6.1-3.4 6.7 7.4 Russia -45.2-45.2-28.0-17.0-11.4-14.1 2.7 10.6 India 29.9 29.9 19.0 21.2 9.5 4.4 15.5 12.0 China 52.9 52.9 19.4 13.7-0.3-6.7 9.8 5.9 MSCI World 2.9 2.9 13.0 13.1 7.9 1.1 3.9 1.2 EAFE -7.3-7.3 5.2 7.9 2.3-3.4 1.6 0.1 Emerging Markets -4.6-4.6-4.8 1.4-0.7-3.7 5.9 4.6 Bonds All Government Bonds 7.1 7.1 2.3 2.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.8 FTSE TMX Universe Bond 8.8 8.8 3.7 3.7 5.4 5.6 Long Term Returns (C$ annualized) YTD 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 15yr S&P 500 (price) 21.9 21.9 30.0 23.0 15.3 7.2 5.1 0.8 S&P 500 Total Return 24.4 24.4 32.8 25.7 17.7 9.6 7.3 2.7 NASDAQ (price) 24.0 24.0 35.5 27.4 18.2 11.0 7.7-0.4 Europe EURO STOXX 50-2.5-2.5 13.2 13.0-0.2-5.2-0.9-3.1 S&P Europe 350 0.8 0.8 14.7 14.0 4.5-1.5 1.4-1.0 England (FTSE) 0.1 0.1 11.8 10.4 5.2-1.0 0.6-2.0 France (CAC 40) -4.2-4.2 12.3 12.8 0.2-4.3-0.5-2.4 Germany (DAX) -1.1-1.1 17.6 20.9 8.9 2.3 7.0 2.1 Spain (IBEX) -0.2-0.2 16.2 8.4-4.3-5.9-0.3-1.1 Asia Japan (Nikkei) 3.1 3.1 19.4 14.7 7.3 3.1 2.4-3.0 Hong Kong (Hang Seng) 10.8 10.8 10.4 13.4 3.5-0.1 4.9 0.8 Australia (ASX 200) 1.4 1.4 3.5 6.7 2.2-1.1 3.0 3.7 BRIC Brazil -5.2-5.2-13.7-11.0-11.9-6.8 6.3 Russia -66.0-66.0-43.5-28.8-20.8-22.3-4.9 India 39.0 39.0 20.0 19.5 5.1-0.2 10.9 China 63.1 63.1 29.5 19.3 3.7-2.4 12.6 MSCI World 12.6 12.6 22.3 18.0 10.1 3.3 3.5-0.2 EAFE 1.4 1.4 13.8 12.7 4.4-1.2 1.2-1.4 Emerging Markets 4.3 4.3 3.0 5.9 1.3-1.6 5.5 3.1 Bonds All Government Bonds 3.2 3.2 6.0 4.4 3.0 4.1 3.2 5.5
World Equities Currencies Commodities S&P TSX Composite 16000 15500 15000 14500 14000 13500 13000 USD/CAD 1.18 1.16 1.14 1.12 1.1 1.08 1.06 1.04 1.02 1 WTI Crude 110 100 70 60 50 2150 2100 2050 2000 1950 10 1850 S&P 500 1.4 1.35 1.3 1.25 1.2 1.15 EUR/USD 120 110 100 70 60 Brent Crude 10 1.1 50 Euro Stoxx 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 20 20 2700 2600 GBP/USD 1.75 1.7 1.65 1.6 1.55 1.5 1.45 Natural Gas 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3 18500 17500 16500 15500 14500 13500 Nikkei 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 AUD/USD 1400 1350 1300 1250 1200 1150 Gold 12500 0.75 1100 NASDAQ 40 40 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 U.S. Dollar Index 92 88 86 84 82 78 76 74 Silver 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14
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