UNITAS CONSULTANCY A GLOBAL CAPITAL PARTNERS GROUP COMPANY Q3 2017 Becoming Abu Dhabi This document is provided by Unitas Consultancy solely for the use by its clients. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the organization without prior written approval.
Executive Summary A look into the structure of the Abu Dhabi economy reveals that 50% of the GDP is derived from the oil and gas sector, making it susceptible to movements in the oil prices. The oil-price crash of 2014 had a detrimental impact on the economy, just as in the region, causing GDP growth to nearly half a couple of years later (2015-4.9% vs 2016-2.8%). In addition it led to the restructuring and consolidation and of businesses in the region. In Abu Dhabi a year after the oil price crash, net new company formation decelerated in2015, before rebounding again in 2016. A closer look into 2016 shows signs of the Abu Dhabi economy revitalizing itself, three years since the oil price crash, as markets begin to accept the new normal. Housing Starts which in a leading indicator of the economy s health, reveals that in 2016 new building permits have spiked by 50% year-on-year. This is an indicator used by economist to predict the direction of the economy over the next 12-18 months, indicating that there appears to be a gradual move higher in growth rates in the coming years. Similarly, a closer look into company formations reveals that in 2016 registered businesses within the emirate witnessed a 10% increase. This reaffirms the emirates initiative to diversify its economy into various sectors such as tourism and trade. An analysis of the real estate market reveals that within the apartment space prices have not rebounded to the levels seen in early 2009. From a total return perspective, investors that have held on have realized a return of 31% in 7 years, with rental returns accounting for the bulk of the gains. Whereas in the villa segment we can witness that the total returns have been double to that of the apartment segment since 2009. We opine that on a relative basis, the performance gap between villas and apartments to narrow as economic diversification efforts lead to a push in mid market housing (already underway). Given the changing dynamics in the Abu Dhabi economy, and the diversification efforts underway, there appear to be strong fundamentals underpinning the economy; consequently asset prices that appear to be currently excessively discounting the pessimism prevalent in the zeitgeist, are expected to move higher.
Content 01 Abu Dhabi Economy and Oil 02 The Economy Shows Signs of a Recovery 03 Buy Abu Dhabi Real Estate on the Dip 04 Conclusions
Abu Dhabi s Economy and Oil "You must be better than us, and better than your fathers and grandfathers. This is not an option, you must do this." Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan
Oil and Abu Dhabi Economy Abu Dhabi: Oil and Gas Activity as a % of GDP at Constant Prices Abu Dhabi: GDP Growth on Constant Prices (2013-2016) 60% Oil and Gas Activity as % of GDP Oil Prices 100 6% 58% 90 56% 80 5% 54% 52% 70 60 4% 50% 50 3% 48% 40 46% 30 2% 44% 20 1% 42% 10 40% 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: SCAD A look into the Abu Dhabi economy reveals that close to 50% of the GDP is reliant on oil and gas sector, thus making it susceptible to movements in the oil prices. The oil-price crash of 2014 had a detrimental impact on the economy, just as in the region, causing GDP growth to nearly half a couple of years later (2015-4.9% vs 2016-2.8%). The rebound of oil prices have thus far not yet translated into GDP growth rates, with the resilience of the economy coming through because of diversification efforts that the city has implemented.
Abu Dhabi Population Growth Rates Slide Abu Dhabi Population (2011-2016) Abu Dhabi Company Formations New & Cancelled Licenses (2011-2016) 3,500,000 3,000,000 Abu Dhabi Population % Change 9% 8% 12000 10000 Number of registered new business licenses Number of canceled business licenses 7% 2,500,000 6% 8000 2,000,000 5% 6000 1,500,000 4% 1,000,000 3% 4000 2% 2000 500,000 1% 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0% 0 2010 2014 2015 2016 Source: SCAD The crash of oil prices led to an overall decrease of activity in the region causing companies to restructure and consolidate their businesses. In Abu Dhabi a year after the oil price crash, net new company formation decreased dramatically in 2015, before rebounding again in 2016. In turn, population growth rate of the city has moderated due to the company and job consolidation efforts that have been underway.
The Economy Shows Signs of a Recovery "We shall spare no effort to realize the hopes and ambitions of our people, and we call upon everybody to work hard to develop our country." Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan
Abu Dhabi Housing Start Jump 50% Abu Dhabi: New Building Permits Issued (2010-2016) 2500 New Building Permits Issued Change 60% 50% 2000 40% 1500 30% 20% 1000 10% 500 0% -10% 0 Source: SCAD 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016-20% Three years since the crash in oil prices, it seems as if markets have started to accept the new normal. A closer look into 2016 shows signs of the Abu Dhabi economy revitalizing itself. Housing Starts which in a leading indicator of the economy s health, reveals that in 2016 new building permits have spiked by 50% year-on-year. This is an indicator used by economist to predict the direction of the economy over the next 12-18 months, indicating that there appears to be a gradual move higher in growth rates in the coming years.
Abu Dhabi Registered Companies Rise in 2016 Abu Dhabi: Number of Registered Companies 86,000 84,000 Abu Dhabi: Number of Registered Companies 2010 2014 2015 2016 82,000 80,000 78,000 76,000 Number of registered new business licenses Number of renewed business licenses Number of canceled business licenses 9349 9934 9228 8963 69,620 73055 75392 77709 2151 1820 7313 2114 74,000 72,000 Source: SCAD 2010 2014 2015 2016 Number of Registered Companies 76,818 81,169 77,307 84,558 Similarly a closer look into company formations reveals that in 2016 registered businesses within the emirate witnessed a 10% increase. This reaffirms the emirates initiative to diversify its economy into various sectors such as tourism and trade. Furthermore, Abu Dhabi s diversification efforts include continued investments into infrastructure spending, a variable that will inject further fiscal stimulus into the economy, driving asset prices higher.
Buy Abu Dhabi Real Estate on the Dip "He who does not know his past cannot make the best of his present and future, for it is from the past that we learn." The late Shaikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan
2009-01-01 2009-05-01 2009-09-01 2010-01-01 2010-05-01 2010-09-01 2011-01-01 2011-05-01 2011-09-01 2012-01-01 2012-05-01 2012-09-01 2013-01-01 2013-05-01 2013-09-01 2014-01-01 2014-05-01 2014-09-01 2015-01-01 2015-05-01 2015-09-01 2016-01-01 2016-05-01 2016-09-01 2017-01-01 2017-05-01 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Price Performance from 2009 - Apartments Abu Dhabi Real Estate Apartment Prices (2009-2017) Abu Dhabi Apartment Prices Total Return Analysis (2009-2017) 2,100.00 80% 1,900.00 1,700.00-36% Down from 2009 60% 40% 1,500.00 20% 1,300.00 0% Price Appreciation Rental Returns Total Return Analysis -20% 1,100.00-50% +42% -12% REIDIN -40% 900.00-60% The above graph reveals the price evolution of the Abu Dhabi apartment segment. Whilst prices have not rebounded to the levels seen in early 2009, from a total return perspective, investors that have held on have realized a return of 31% in 7.5 years, with rental returns accounting for all the positive performance. Given the fact that there has been considerable emphasis on the rental rates reducing, especially in the apartment space, there has been concern on the level of asset prices. However, given the diversification efforts that are in place, combined with the fiscal stimulus (of Abu Dhabi as well as its neighboring emirate Dubai) that will form the bulk of the job creation engine going forward, it appears probable that prices have excessively discounted the pessimism prevailing in the ecosystem.
2009-01-01 2009-05-01 2009-09-01 2010-01-01 2010-05-01 2010-09-01 2011-01-01 2011-05-01 2011-09-01 2012-01-01 2012-05-01 2012-09-01 2013-01-01 2013-05-01 2013-09-01 2014-01-01 2014-05-01 2014-09-01 2015-01-01 2015-05-01 2015-09-01 2016-01-01 2016-05-01 2016-09-01 2017-01-01 2017-05-01 Abu Dhabi Real Estate Price Performance from 2009 - Villas Abu Dhabi Real Estate Villa Prices (2009-2017) Abu Dhabi Villa Prices Total Return Analysis (2009-2017) 1,100 80% 1,050 70% 1,000 +3% Up from 2009 60% 950 50% 900 40% 850 30% 800 20% 750 700-12% +31% -11% REIDIN 10% 0% Price Appreciation Rental Returns Total Return Analysis In the villa space we can witness that the total returns have been double to that of the apartment segment since 2009. In addition, unlike apartments, city-wide villas remain above their 2009 highs. The villa segment has been relatively buoyant, especially considering the anticipated pipeline that is continuing to be dominated by vertical developments. Consequently, investors in the villa space have fetched far better with a cumulative return of 63% during the same time frame (more than double what apartments have fetched in the same time frame). We opine that on a relative basis, the performance gap between villas and apartments to narrow as economic diversification efforts lead to a push in mid market housing (already underway).
Conclusions Housing Starts which in a leading indicator of the economy s health, reveals that in 2016 new building permits have spiked by 50% year-on-year Abu Dhabi Economy and Oil A break down of the Abu Dhabi economy reveals that the oil and gas sector contribute 50% of the economy. The oil price crash of 2014 had various detrimental effects on the economy. GDP growth to nearly half a couple of years later (2015-4.9% vs 2016-2.8%) Additionally since the crash, across the region businesses began to consolidate and restructure their organizations. This led to an abnormal cancellation of licenses consequently slowing down the job creation machine. In turn, population growth rate of the city has moderated due to the company and job consolidation efforts that have been underway The Economy Shows Signs of a Recovery Since 2016 we have begun to see a signs of the revitalization of the Abu Dhabi economy as markets re-adjust to the new normal. Housing Starts which in a leading indicator of the economy s health, reveals that in 2016 new building permits have spiked by 50% year-on-year. This is an indicator used by economist to predict the direction of the economy over the next 12-18 months. Similarly a closer look into company formations reveals that in 2016 registered businesses within the emirate witnessed a 10% increase. This reaffirms the emirates initiative to diversify its economy into various sectors such as tourism and trade Buy Abu Dhabi Real Estate on the Dip Conclusions Abu Dhabi s diversification efforts include continued investments into infrastructure spending, a variable that will inject further fiscal stimulus into the economy, driving asset prices higher. An analysis of the total returns of the real estate market (capital gains and rental income reveals) that since 2009, villas have yielded twice to that of apartments. In the apartment space whilst prices have not rebounded to the levels seen in early 2009, from a total return perspective, investors have achieved 31% in 7.5 years. In the villa segment investors have fetched far better with a cumulative return of 63% during the same time frame A look into the revival of the Abu Dhabi economy and price points in the real estate market, reveals an opportunity for investors to capitalize on the turn around. Abu Dhabi s diversification efforts include continued investments into infrastructure spending, a variable that will inject further fiscal stimulus into the economy, driving asset prices higher. On a relative basis we opine that the outperformance gap between villas and apartments will narrow.
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