Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) 60

Similar documents
D-Link India (DLILIM) 105

Cement. Pet coke ban to dent margins in short-term. Sector Update. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research. November 20, 2017

Bajaj Finserv (BAFINS) 5443

Wabco India (WABTVS) Having a safe and brake free ride! Management Meet Note. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research.

GE Shipping (GESHIP) Striking valuation. Result Update. Rs 262 WHAT S CHANGED. Valuation. February 8, Rating matrix.

Bajaj Finserv (BAFINS) 4375

Bajaj Finserv (BAFINS) 3130

I Direct. nstinct. January 4, 2018

Monte Carlo Fashions (MONCAR) 580

Emmbi Industries (EMMPOL)

Schaeffler India (FAGBEA) 4800

I Direct. nstinct. November 27, 2017

IndusInd Bank (INDBA) 1717

Lumax Industries (LUMIND)

Praj Industries (PRAIN)

PC Jeweller (PCJEW) 417 Stepping up store expansion via small store s. Management Meet Note. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research

Wim Plast Ltd (WIMPLA) 1320

I Direct. nstinct. February 7, 2018

I Direct. nstinct. September 19, 2017

Reliance Housing Finance

Reliance Capital (RELCAP) 549

Reliance Capital (RELCAP)

DCB Bank (DCB) 208. Healthy fundamentals priced in. Company Update. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research. June 13, 2017

Graphite Electrodes. Good times to continue... Sector Update. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research. January 3, 2018

Bajaj Finance (BAJAF) 5498

Singer India (SININ) Focus on tapping small appliances segment. Management Meet Note. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research.

Graphite India (CAREVE) 110

I Direct. nstinct. March 27, 2018

Power Finance Corporation Floor Price 254

KPIT Cummins Infosystems (KPISYS)

I Direct. nstinct. July 10, 2017

Stock Trader: Budget Beneficiary Stock Larsen & Toubro

Bodal Chemicals (BODCHE)

State Bank of India (STABAN) 335

Stock Trader: ONGC. Research Analysts.

Bank of Baroda (BANBAR) 156

Mayur Uniquoters (MAYUNI)

Stock Trader - Power Grid

Graphite India (CAREVE) 75

Arbitrage Opportunity in Wipro buyback

Star Ferro & Cement (STAFER) 113

I Direct. nstinct. November 27, 2017

Power Grid Corporation (POWGRI) 132

UltraTech Cement (ULTCEM)

NHPC (NHPC) 30. Capacity addition below estimates. Result Update. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research. June 5, 2017

Siyaram Silk Mills (SIYSIL) 575

Graphite India (CAREVE) 75

Taj GVK Hotels (TAJGVK) 167

Stock Trader - Canara Bank: Focus on Budget

Union Bank of India (UNIBAN)

Simplex Infrastructure (SIMCON)

Quant Pick Buy Axis Bank

Graphite India (CAREVE) 82

Stock Trader - Focus on Budget: Power Grid

Bharti Airtel (BHATE) 369

Graphite India (CAREVE) 454

Quant Picks. Quant Pick

Saregama India (GRACOM) 315

April 22, Research Analyst

Kewal Kiran Clothing (KEWKIR) 1800

MPS (MACIN) 740. Uncomplicated. anagement Meet Note. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research. December 16, 2014

Consumer Discretionary Thematic 6.0 : Buy Page Industries

Mahanagar Gas (MAHGAS) 985

Vardhman Textiles (MAHSPI) 990

Varun Beverages (VARBEV) 481

ITC Ltd. RESULT UPDATE 27th October, 2017

Quant Pick: Punjab National Bank

October 4, Quant Pick. Research Analyst

Symphony Ltd. RESULT UPDATE 31st October 2017

Visaka Industries Ltd

Sovereign Gold Bonds. Better option to invest in gold... Gold Bond. Gold back in limelight. July 15, 2016

Nestle India Ltd. RESULT UPDATE

Oil & Gas Thematic. Quant Pick

Colgate-Palmolive India Ltd.

Hotel Leela (HOTLEE) 22

Motherson Sumi (MOTSUM) 323

NHPC (NHPC) 31. In line performance. Result Update. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research. February 9, 2017

Graphite India (CAREVE) 74

Jet Airways (JETAIR) 578

Cummins India Ltd Bloomberg Code: KKC IN

Gladiator Stocks. Scrip I-Direct Code Action Target Stoploss Upside Tata Power TATPOW Buy in the range of

Jet Airways (JETAIR) 742

Jet Airways (JETAIR) 497

GMR Infrastructure (GMRINF) 11

Bharat Petroleum Corp (BHAPET) 468

Suzlon Energy Ltd RESULT UPDATE 16th August, 2017

Bharat Petroleum Corp (BHAPET) 500

Sovereign Gold Bonds. Attractive option to invest in gold... Gold Bond. Gold back in limelight. February 24, 2017

Fineotex Chemical Ltd

Power Grid Corporation (POWGRI) 138

Wonderla Holidays (WONHOL) 383

Gladiator Stocks. Research Analysts. May 3, Cummins India CUMIND Buy in the range of

Biocon (BIOCON) Back on track. Result Update WHAT S CHANGED. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research. October 21, 2011

Gladiator Stocks. Federal-Mogul Goetze (India) Ltd. FEDGOE Buy in the range of

SQS India BFSI Ltd HOLD. Impact of Macro Headwinds Still Hurting; Revenue from US May Pick up in FY18E

HEG Ltd (HEG) 165. Lower operating costs support margins. Result Update. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research.

Vardhman Textiles (VARTEX) 1290

Oriental Carbon & Chemicals (ORICAR) 950

Ahluwalia Contracts (India)

Infibeam Incorporation Ltd.

Transcription:

Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Hold Target : 65 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 8% What s changed? Target Changed from 76 to 65 EPS FY16E Changed from 13 to 10 EPS FY17E Changed from 14.4 to 10.1 EPS FY18E Introduced at 10.3 Rating Unchanged Quarterly performance Q3FY16 Q3FY15 YoY (%) Q2FY16 QoQ (%) Revenue 987.0 1,025.8-3.8 1,085.0-9.0 EBITDA 226.4 185.3 22.2 312.8-27.6 EBITDA % 22.9 18.1 487 bps 28.8-589 bps PAT 59.7 31.4 90.3 161.2-63.0 Key financials Crore FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E Net Sales 4,190 4,158 4,233 4,297 EBITDA 828.4 1,122.8 1,121.9 1,117.2 Net Profit 200.9 463.6 470.4 479.4 EPS 4.3 10.0 10.1 10.3 Valuation summary FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E P/E (x) 13.9 6.0 5.9 5.8 Target P/E(x) 15.07 6.53 6.44 6.32 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.2 5.8 5.4 4.8 P / BV (x) 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.32 RONW (%) 2.7 6.6 6.3 6.0 ROCE (%) 0.48 3.37 3.27 3.14 Stock data Particular Amount Market Capitalisation ( Crore) 2795 Totak Debt (Mar-15) ( Crore) 5,569.9 Cash and Investment (Mar-15) ( Crore) 1,256.2 EV ( Crore) 7,108.6 52 week H/L 100 / 48 Equity Capital ( Crore) 465.8 Face Value ( ) 10.0 Stock Return Stocks 1M 3M 6M 1Yr GE Shipping Co -21.6-28.9-24.8-17.7 S C I -38.3-26.6-19.3 3.7 Mercator -34.9-28.2-9.7-11.6 Shreyas Shipping -48.3-51.7-72.8-55.9 Research Analysts Bharat Chhoda bharat.chhoda@icicisecurities.com Ankit Panchmatia ankit.panchmatia@icicisecurities.com Dry performance due to dry docking February 15, 2016 Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) 60 SCI s Q3FY16 result was below our estimate on the back of the dual impact on revenue and margins due to higher dry docking. Revenue de-grew 4% YoY, (down 9% QoQ) to 987 crore (I-direct estimate: 1074 crore). The liner segment continued to tread down with degrowth of 37% YoY (-8% QoQ) to 127 crore. The bulk segment (which includes tankers) was also subdued during the quarter with a growth of mere 2% YoY (-11% QoQ) to 771 crore. The technical & offshore segment, further dented growth rates with de-growth of 5% YoY (down 9% QoQ) to 85 crore. Revenues were adversely impacted by dry docking of seven tankers and two offshore vessels Benefits of lower bunker costs and charter hire expenses were completely offset by higher repair & maintenance charges due to dry docking, moderating EBITDA growth to 22% YoY (down 28% QoQ) to 226 crore. Subsequently, EBITDA margins were significantly lower than the quarterly run rate, which was at 23% compared to ~29% levels in H1FY16 Excluding the extraordinary profit in Q3FY15, PAT more than doubled. Lower interest costs and marginally higher other income, further accelerated PAT, which was at 60 crore compared to 31 crore in Q3FY15 and 161 crore in Q2FY16 Quarter downbeat on dry docking; tanker rates continue uptrend Dry docking resulted in negative dual impact on financials for the current quarter. On the one hand, due to dry docking of seven tankers and two offshore vessels, revenues were impacted, while, on the other hand, higher repair costs impacted margins. Though the number of revenue days was lower for the quarter, the weakness was completely offset by elevated TCY rates for crude tankers. Rates for crude tankers continued to stay at elevated levels due to continued production from Opec countries. The additional tanker fleet (17% of the current fleet size) is expected to join by 2017, which would sustain near term rates at current levels. For FY16, a VLCC is expected to join the tanker fleet of SCI, which would provide added momentum to the company s earnings. Favourable fleet composition; offsetting losses in liners SCI s liner segment, which includes break-bulk, container transport, passenger vessel and research vessels continued to make losses. EBIT margins for the current quarter and 9MFY16 for the liner segment were at -47% and -26%, respectively. The softness was combated by a favourable fleet composition, which includes 17 bulk, 36 tankers, five liners and nine offshore carriers. The high proportion of tankers in SCI s fleet kept the bulk segment earnings afloat. Bunker costs, which were ~30% of total sales as on Q2FY15, declined to 17% of sales in the current quarter. Further, the company has booked two of its five VLCCs on a time charter basis to Indian Oil, which would assure revenue visibility. Continued softness in shipping scenario; cautious approach; opine HOLD BDI continued to weaken to 300 levels compared to average 1000 levels in Q2FY16. Oversupply in the bulk segment would prevail on the back of lower scrapping because of lower scrap metal prices. Lower bunker costs propelled the operational performance of the company. We believe that sustainability of existing levers would remain a key concern. Given the operational parameters, we value SCI at 25% discount to the P/BV of Great Eastern Shipping (Gesco). Subsequently, we value SCI at 0.38x (25% discount to Gesco s 0.5x) FY18E book value of 170.8 and arrive at a target price of 65 with HOLD rating. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research

Variance analysis Q3FY16 Q3FY16E Q3FY15 YoY (%) Q2FY16 QoQ (%) Comments Revenue 987.0 1,162.9 1,025.8-3.8 1,085.0-9.0 Revenue growth impacted by higher dry-docking during the quarter Operating Expenses 419.6 412.8 451.2-7.0 387.6 8.3 Lower bunker costs continued to benefit. However, this was completely offset by an increase in repair costs due to dry docking Employee Expenses 113.2 127.9 100.1 13.2 116.6-2.9 Administrative & Oth Expenses 227.8 273.3 289.3-21.3 268.0-15.0 Total Expense 760.6 814.0 840.5-9.5 772.2-1.5 EBITDA 226.4 348.9 185.3 22.2 312.8-27.6 EBITDA Margin (%) 22.9 30.0 18.1 487 bps 28.8-589 bps Margins continue to stay significantly higher YoY Depreciation 148.0 146.6 193.9-23.6 145.1 2.0 Interest 39.6 41.4 44.4-10.8 41.0-3.3 Other Income 38.9 37.4 37.2 4.7 53.6-27.4 Exceptional Gain/Loss 0.0 0.0 63.1 0.0 PBT 77.7 198.3-15.8-591.8 180.2-56.9 Total Tax 18.0 19.8 16.0 19.0 PAT 59.7 178.5 31.4 90.3 161.2-63.0 Key Metrics Q3FY16 Q3FY15 YoY Q2FY16 QoQ Liner Segment 127.0 202.5-37.3 137.2-7.5 Bulk Segment 771.0 759.1 1.6 850.5-9.3 Adversely impacted by dry docking of seven tankers Technical & Offshore Segment 84.6 89.0-4.9 92.1-8.2 Adversely impacted by dry docking of two offshore vessels Others 4.5 1.8 148.9 5.3-14.7 Change in estimates FY16E FY17E FY18E ( Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Introduced Comments Revenue 4,558.7 4,158.4-8.8 4,669.1 4,233.4-9.3 4,296.8 Revised growth to incorporate the recent quarter's dry docking impact EBITDA 1,276.4 1,122.8-12.0 1,330.7 1,121.9-15.7 1,117.2 EBITDA Margin (%) 28.0 27.0-100 bps 28.5 26.5-200 bps 26.0 Margins expected to stay range bound PAT 603.8 463.6-23.2 671.2 470.4-29.9 479.4 EPS ( ) 13.0 10.0-23.4 14.4 10.1-29.9 10.3 Assumptions Current Earlier Comments FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E Liner segment (% of revenues) 21 21 26 27 21 21 Tankers to remain supportive of liner revenues Bulk segment (% of revenues) 69 71 62 62 68 69 Lower BDI impacting bulk segment Offshore segment 10 8 11 11 11 11 Total revenue YoY growth (%) 2-3 -1 2 3 3 ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 2

Company Analysis Operational performance to be range bound in near term For FY15, revenues from operational activities declined 3% YoY to 4190.4 crore. Bulk segment (dry + tanker) continued to remain the largest contributor with 71% of total revenues. Profitability of the bulk segment has been the impressive factor on its overall profitability in FY14-15. After two consecutive year of loss, the segment reported an EBIT profit of 49.5 crore. Improvement in tanker rates, coupled with lower bunker costs were key contributors. Coupled with that, its liner segment has been in the red from FY12 onwards. The EBIT margin of the liner segment has remained negative in FY08-14 except for FY11 when it reported an EBIT margin of 5%. For FY15, SCI was able to tide over the negative impact of the liner segment and report a profit of 31.8 crore. However, the segment started to bleed again with an EBIT loss of 113 crore as on 9MFY16. Revenues on the high margin offshore segment continued to remain range bound due to subdued E&P activities. For FY16, BDI has been at a 30 year low level, following which freight revenues from the bulk segment are expected to remain pressurised. Though tankers continue to combat the weakness, volatility in the same is expected to keep a tab on revenue growth. For FY16, EBITDA margins continue to remain elevated due to benefits from low crude prices. The operational performance of the company was at the highest level during the year and is, thus, expected to remain range-bound in the near term. Thus, revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR 1% in FY15-18. However, the operational performance would have a similar to marginal negative bias over the same period. Exhibit 1: Segmental revenue trend 5000 4000 4240 4306 4190 4158 4233 4297 cr 3000 2000 1000 0-1000 1123 1122 1117 828 610 393-114 464 470 479-275 FY13 FY14 FY15201 FY16E FY17E FY18E Revenue EBITDA PAT More tankers in fleet insulate revenues from dryness in bulk For FY15, the company disposed of three tankers and two offshore vessels. Further, SCI added a tanker during the same period. The company s fleet composition is heavily skewed in favour of tankers, which constitutes 52% of the total fleet strength. Further, bulk carriers form 25% of the total fleet, which was impacted during the year due to historic low levels of Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The stable and high margin offshore segment now has just nine vessels, which has an average age of three years. Liners and passengers constitute five and one vessels, respectively. The company had planned to increase its presence in the offshore segment by ordering six offshore vessels. However, SCI has had to cancel those orders due to a delay in delivery from the shipyard impacting its fleet expansion plans. Further, the management has toned down its capex plans in the near future until the freight rate scenario improves. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 3

Exhibit 2: SCI fleet profile FY14 FY15 18 16 14 14 17 17 11 9 2 2 4 5 5 5 1 1 Crude Product Gas VLCC Dry bulk Liners OSV Passenger Waning older vessels, new acquisitions enhance NAV Over a few years, SCI has focused on adding newer vessels with higher tonnage carrying capacities. This has resulted in an improvement of its fleet s average age to 8.7 years in FY15 compared to 18 years in 2010. Due to this strategy, its NAV has seen a significant increase over the last few years. We believe asset prices would stabilise and cool off over the longer term. Exhibit 3: Recent NAV per share 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 154 146 138 126 127 127 Q3FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 NAV ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 4

Valuation SCI is the largest shipping company of India and currently operates a fleet of 69 vessels with a total capacity of 5.9 million dwt. Over the last four years, the company has incurred a capex of ~ 7000 crore to acquire new vessels to replace its ageing fleet. The fleet expansion has hurt the company s profitability as new vessels have joined the fleet when rates were at historically low levels due to overcapacity in the industry. We believe this capex was wrongly timed and is hurting the company s current and future profitability. The ships were ordered in 2007, 2008 when freight rates and asset prices were at their peak. These ships have joined SCI s fleet when freight rates are near their lows resulting in very low margins leading to insufficient EBITDA generation to cover the higher depreciation and interest expense owing to the huge capex. SCI s debt equity has increased from 0.3x in FY08 to 0.9x in FY15. We expect it to remain at the current levels over FY15-17E. The average PBV valuation in the last two years is ~0.3x. From a valuation perspective, SCI s five year average price/book value multiple has been 0.7x. Though the company has been able to report profits in FY15, majority of the same came from higher other income and profit in sale of ships. Further, lower depreciation due to rescinding of vessels by shipyards and consequent increase in other income (penalty paid by shipyards and refund of payments) aided PAT. With the positive swing from bunker costs and rationalisation of other expenses, we expect margins to increase to ~25% in the near term. SCI operates in a business environment similar to Great Eastern Shipping (Gesco). However, the operational performance of the latter is far superior, following which we apply a 25% discount to the valuation ascribed to the same. We roll over our estimates to FY18 and value SCI at 0.38x (25% discount to 0.5 P/BV of Gesco) FY18E book value with a target price of 65 and have a HOLD recommendation on the stock. Exhibit 4: P/BV trend 250 200 150 100 50 0 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Close -Unit Curr 0.4 X 0.5 X 0.8 X 1.0 X 1.3 X Exhibit 5: Valuations Sales Sales EPS EPS PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE ( cr) Growth (%) ( ) Growth (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) FY15 4190.4-2.7 4.3 NA 13.9 8.2 2.7 0.5 FY16E 4158.4-0.8 10.0 130.7 6.0 5.8 6.6 3.4 FY17E 4233.4 1.8 10.1 1.5 5.9 5.4 6.3 3.3 FY18E 4296.8 1.5 10.3 1.9 5.8 4.8 6.0 3.1 ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 5

Company snapshot 140 120 100 80 60 Target Price 65 40 20 0 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Key events Date Event Mar-09 Defers acquisition of eight ships for a year Jun-09 FY09 profit up 16% YoY Jun-10 A 10% disinvestment on cards Sep-10 Stock moves up on planning a stake buyout in a shipyard Jan-11 Likely to enter into JV with Coal India Apr-13 To take possession of seven ships from Irano Hind Shipping Jun-13 Inks agreement for shipping LNG gas from US Aug-13 Hikes container freight by 80% May-15 Posts positive EBIT for all segments after three years Aug-15 Posts highest EBITDA margins of 30% since FY10 in Q1FY16 on the back of lower bunker costs Nov-15 Reported Q2FY16 resutls with 28% EBITDA margins and 161 crore of PAT Feb-16 Reported Q3FY16 results. Quarter impacted by 9 dry docking. EBITDA margins at 23%. PAT reported at 60 crore Top 10 Shareholders Rank Name Latest Filing Date %O/S Position(m) Change (m) 1 Government of India 30-Sep-15 0.6 296.9 0.0 2 Life Insurance Corporation of India 30-Sep-15 0.1 65.8 0.0 3 Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P. 30-Nov-15 0.0 6.3 0.0 4 General Insurance Corporation of India 30-Sep-15 0.0 5.2 0.0 5 The New India Assurance Co. Ltd. 30-Sep-15 0.0 5.0 0.0 6 L&T Investment Management Limited 31-Dec-15 0.0 1.4-0.1 7 The Vanguard Group, Inc. 31-Dec-15 0.0 1.4 0.0 8 HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd. 31-Dec-15 0.0 1.0 0.0 9 Van Eck Associates Corporation 31-Jan-16 0.0 0.9 0.0 10 Mellon Capital Management Corporation 31-Dec-15 0.0 0.8 0.0 Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Shareholding Pattern (in %) Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Promoter 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.8 FII 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.4 3.8 DII 18.7 18.7 18.7 19.4 19.1 Others 15.8 15.6 15.6 14.4 13.3 Recent Activity Buys Sells Investor name Value Shares Investor name Value Shares Taurus Asset Management Co. Ltd. 0.7151491 0.507126 Sundaram Asset Management Company Limited -0.5170921-0.50606 State Street Global Advisors (US) 0.1830313 0.129791 ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. -0.4104598-0.328815 Northern Trust Investments, Inc. 0.0974053 0.069072 L&T Investment Management Limited -0.1643912-0.116573 Russell Investments Limited 0.0607485 0.048665 Mellon Capital Management Corporation -0.0584105-0.04142 BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited 0.0331087 0.023478 BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. -0.0061691-0.005109 Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 6

Financial summary Profit and loss statement Crore (Year-end March) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Total operating Income 4,190.4 4,158.4 4,233.4 4,296.8 Growth (%) -2.7-0.8 1.8 1.5 Direct Operating Expenses 360.7 374.3 359.8 365.2 Bunker Cost 1,184.2 873.3 889.0 923.8 Hire of chartered ships 473.7 457.4 465.7 472.7 Administration expenses 506.2 499.0 508.0 515.6 Other expenses 837.3 831.7 889.0 902.3 Total Operating Expenditure 3,362.0 3,035.6 3,111.6 3,179.7 EBITDA 828.4 1,122.8 1,121.9 1,117.2 Growth (%) 35.9 35.5-0.1-0.4 Depreciation 770.2 711.2 718.2 726.2 Interest 179.3 134.6 125.4 116.3 Other Income 276.7 262.5 275.6 289.4 PBT 155.6 539.5 553.9 564.1 Others 120.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Tax 75.2 75.8 83.5 84.7 PAT 200.9 463.6 470.4 479.4 Growth (%) NA 130.7 1.5 1.9 EPS ( ) 4.3 10.0 10.1 10.3 Cash flow statement Crore (Year-end March) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Profit after Tax 200.9 463.6 470.4 479.4 Add: Depreciation 770.2 711.2 718.2 726.2 (Inc)/dec in Current Assets -689.4 386.8-46.9 107.5 Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions -248.7-57.8-527.5-258.7 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CF from operating activities 33.0 1,503.9 614.3 1,054.4 (Inc)/dec in Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -719.8 340.9-200.0-200.0 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CF from investing activities -719.8 340.9-200.0-200.0 Issue/(Buy back) of Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Inc/(dec) in loan funds -1,000.4-371.5-364.6-364.6 Dividend paid & dividend tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CF from financing activities -1,000.4-371.5-364.6-364.6 Net Cash flow -308.5 699.6 143.4 274.8 Opening Cash 759.5 451.0 1,150.6 1,294.0 Closing Cash 1,256.2 1,150.6 1,294.0 1,568.8 Balance sheet Crore (Year-end March) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Liabilities Equity Capital 465.8 465.8 465.8 465.8 Reserve and Surplus 6,067.8 6,539.0 7,009.4 7,488.9 Total Shareholders funds 6,533.6 7,004.8 7,475.2 7,954.7 Total Debt 5,569.9 5,198.4 4,833.8 4,469.2 Long term Provisions 138.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 Other Long term liabilities 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Liabilities 12,241.9 12,220.2 12,326.0 12,440.8 Assets Gross Block 17,704.9 17,854.9 18,054.9 18,254.9 Less: Acc Depreciation 6,272.5 6,983.7 7,701.9 8,428.1 Net Block 11,432.4 10,871.2 10,353.0 9,826.8 Capital WIP 490.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Fixed Assets 11,923.3 10,871.2 10,353.0 9,826.8 Intangible assets 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Non-current Investments 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 Long term loans & advances 444.7 1,160.3 1,160.3 1,160.3 Other non-current assets 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Inventory 91.9 112.3 91.5 116.0 Debtors 787.8 898.5 857.4 927.9 Loans and Advances 484.1 673.9 685.9 695.9 Other Current Assets 102.5 168.5 171.5 174.0 Cash 1,256.2 1,150.6 1,294.0 1,568.8 Current investments 77.1 77.1 77.1 77.1 Total Current Assets 2,799.6 3,080.8 3,177.3 3,559.7 Creditors 1,257.4 1,082.3 869.9 588.6 Short term borrowing 35.0 57.0 348.0 353.2 Other liab & Provisions 1,670.5 1,765.9 1,159.8 1,177.2 Total Current Liabilities 2,963.0 2,905.2 2,377.7 2,119.0 Net Current Assets -163.4 175.7 799.7 1,440.7 Application of Funds 12,241.9 12,220.2 12,326.0 12,440.8. Key ratios (Year-end March) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Per share data ( ) EPS 4.3 10.0 10.1 10.3 Cash EPS 20.3 25.2 25.5 25.9 BV 140.3 150.4 160.5 170.8 DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash Per Share 27.0 24.7 27.8 33.7 Operating Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin 19.8 27.0 26.5 26.0 PBT / Total Operating income 3.1 13.0 13.1 13.1 PAT Margin 4.2 11.1 11.1 11.2 Inventory days 8.1 10.0 8.0 10.0 Debtor days 69.2 80.0 75.0 80.0 Creditor days 110.5 95.0 75.0 50.0 Return Ratios (%) RoE 2.7 6.6 6.3 6.0 RoCE 0.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 RoIC 1.9 4.2 4.3 4.4 Valuation Ratios (x) P/E 13.9 6.0 5.9 5.8 EV / EBITDA 8.2 5.8 5.4 4.8 EV / Net Sales 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 Market Cap / Sales 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Price to Book Value 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 Solvency Ratios Debt/EBITDA 6.8 4.7 4.6 4.3 Debt / Equity 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Current Ratio 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 Quick Ratio 2.2 2.7 3.5 5.9 ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 7

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Shipping) CMP Mcap EPS ( ) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%) Sector/Company ( ) TP ( ) Rating ( Cr) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E G.E Shipping 300 350 HOLD 4,523.4 49.6 83.5 82.1 7.1 3.9 4.0 5.6 3.5 3.6 6.3 10.2 8.7 10.1 14.8 12.9 Pipavav Defence 62 80 HOLD 4,564.5-5.4-10.8-3.3 NA NA NA 121.6-66.4 45.6-0.4-4.6 0.5-40.5-10.8-1.0 SCI 60 76 HOLD 2,794.8 4.3 13.0 14.4 18.5 6.2 5.6 8.2 5.6 4.5 0.5 4.6 4.8 2.7 8.5 8.6 ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 8

RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1 st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 9

ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Bharat Chhoda, MBA and Ankit Panchmatia, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a Sebi registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. ( associates ), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Bharat Chhoda, MBA and Ankit Panchmatia, MBA, Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. It is confirmed that Bharat Chhoda, MBA and Ankit Panchmatia, MBA, Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research Page 10