CMP: INR228 TP: INR275 (+20%) Buy Firm utilization continues

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BSE SENSEX S&P CNX 31,627 9,873 25 September 217 Update Sector: Oil & Gas CMP: INR228 TP: INR275 (+2%) Buy Firm utilization continues Dahej continues to lead; Kochi to improve utilization Stock Info Bloomberg PLNG IN Equity Shares (m) 1,5. 52-Week Range (INR) 242 / 163 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 1/4/23 M.Cap. (INR b) 343.5 M.Cap. (USD b) 5.3 12M Avg Val (INR M) 181 Free float (%) 5. Financials Snapshot (INR b) Y/E Mar 217 218E 219E Net Sales 246.2 27.8 338.1 EBITDA 25.9 31. 39.3 PAT 17.1 21. 26.9 EPS (INR) 11.4 14. 17.9 Gr. (%) 12.7 23.1 28.2 BV/Sh (INR) 54. 64. 76.9 RoE (%) 23.2 23.7 25.5 RoCE (%) 2.2 21. 24. P/E (x) 2.1 16.3 12.7 P/BV (x) 4.2 3.6 3. Shareholding pattern (%) As On Sep-16 Jun-16 Sep-15 Promoter 5. 5. 5. DII 12.1 17.7 16.5 FII 22.3 19.4 21.3 Others 15.6 12.9 12.3 FII Includes depository receipts Stock Performance (1-year) Sensex - Rebased 25 225 2 175 15 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Our channel checks suggest more than full utilization at Dahej and marginally increased throughput at the Kochi LNG terminal. We continue believing that increased domestic gas production and upcoming competition would not be a significant risk to utilization. Reiterate Buy with a target price of INR275. Firm utilization at Dahej On capacity of 15mmtpa, PLNG has firm take-or-pay utilization contracts of 15.75mmtpa. Our channel checks further suggest that LNG arrival at Dahej is happening at a rate of 16mmtpa, reflecting above full utilization. Do not see much competition Among the existing terminals, Dabhol would remain underutilized due to the lack of breakwater facility, the tender for which has not yet been awarded. GSPC/Adani s 5mmtpa Mundra LNG terminal is expected to come in early 218, with the completion of 6km Mundra-Anjar pipeline being key to this. Additionally, capacity of the existing 17km 3mmtpa Anjar-Chotila network needs to be augmented to handle the full load. Tender for this has not yet been awarded. IOCL s Ennore LNG terminal would come up in 219, and service an entirely new set of consumers without being any threat to PLNG. EPS CAGR of 17% over FY17-2 PLNG is likely to continue gradual capacity addition at Dahej terminal to benefit from the evolving LNG opportunity in India. We expect its total capacity to reach 22.5mmtpa by FY2. Firm offtake contracts at Dahej terminal and ramp-up of Kochi terminal would enable PLNG to post volume CAGR of 1% over FY17-2. We do not assume any escalation in Kochi re-gas charge 218 onward. Assured volume growth and tariff hikes would help PLNG to post 16%/17% EBITDA/PAT CAGR over FY17-2. Valuation and view The stock is trading at 12.7x EPS of INR18 and 8.2x EV/EBITDA. We value the stock using DCF (WACC of 11%, terminal growth of 3%). With a target price of INR275, we reiterate our Buy rating on the stock. Key triggers to watch out: (i) progress on the completion of Kochi-Mangalore pipeline, (ii) ramp-up of domestic gas production and (iii) progress of Dahej expansion from 15mmtpa to 17.5mmtpa. Swarnendu Bhushan Research Analyst (Swarnendu.Bhushan@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529 Abhinil Dahiwale Research Analyst (Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 398 439 Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/institutional-equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Valuation and view Reiterate Buy with a target price of INR275 Strong earnings visibility: Visibility on PLNG s medium/long-term earnings is high, given (a) the huge gas demand-supply gap in India, (b) volume growth, driven by gradual capacity addition and (c) earnings growth boosted by annual re-gas charge escalation to protect IRR. Poor competition from existing and upcoming terminals: We believe that the existing Dabhol and Hazira terminals would remain underutilized, while the upcoming Mundra and Ennore terminals would face pipeline issues. LNG prices to correct downward: We believe that LNG prices would remain structurally weak for a long time, even if oil prices were to rise, due to (a) decoupling of oil-gas price link since 29 due to abundance in supply of shale gas and (b) 142mmtpa of LNG liquefaction capacity under various stages of construction v/s global LNG trade of 245mmt in 215. Key assumptions In our estimates through FY22, we model (a) 9% volume CAGR over FY17-22E, (b) 5% annual increase in re-gas changes and INR29.6/mmbtu of marketing margins for Dahej terminal and (c) ~3-4% hike in re-gas charges for FY18/19 and flat growth thereafter for the Kochi terminal. Exhibit 1: PLNG Key assumptions FY17 FY2E FY21E FY22E Exchange Rate (INR/USD) 54.4 6.6 61.4 65.5 67.1 64.5 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 Capacity (mmt) 1. 15. 15. 15. 16.3 2. 2. 22.5 22.5 22.5 Dahej 1. 1. 1. 1. 11.3 15. 15. 17.5 17.5 17.5 Kochi 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. Throughput (mmt) 1.4 9.7 1.5 11.2 14.4 16.3 19. 19.1 2. 22. Dahej 1.4 9.7 1.4 1.9 14.1 15.5 16.5 16.6 17.5 17.5 Long term 7.5 7.4 6.8 5.5 8.4 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 Re-gas.9 1.1 2.1 4.2 5.1 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Spot/Short term 2. 1.2 1.4 1.5.7.4 1.3 1.5 2.3 2.3 Kochi..1.3.3.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 4.5 Utilization rate (%) 14% 65% 7% 75% 88% 82% 95% 85% 89% 98% Dahej 14% 97% 14% 19% 126% 13% 11% 95% 1% 1% Kochi 1% 2% 6% 5% 17% 5% 5% 5% 9% Re-gasification charges (INR/mmbtu) Dahej 35.5 37.2 39.1 41. 43.1 45.2 47.5 49.9 52.4 55. Kochi 62. 62.8 65.9 69.2 72.7 75.5 77.2 77.2 77.2 77.2 25 September 217 2

Buy with one-year target of INR275, implying upside of 2% We value PLNG on DCF to arrive at a price target of INR275. The stock trades at 12.7x EPS of INR18. Exhibit 2: We value PLNG on DCF methodology FY17 FY18 FY19 FY2 FY21 FY22 PAT incl. div/fbt 9,133 17,57 21,21 26,995 27,389 31,228 37,275 Depr 3,216 3,691 4,31 5,76 5,885 6,1 6,135 Change in net working capital 1786.89-25979 -3889 565.29 336.9 526.16 62.58 Capex -9,931-4,796-5, -5, -5, -5, -5, FCFF (INR m) 19,54-1,28 16,442 2832 28,611 32,764 39,31 One year valuation NPV (INR m) 114,844 Terminal growth rate 3.% TV (INR m) 298,22 Enterprise value (INR m) 413,64 Net debt (INR m) 751 Equity value (INR m) 412,313 Target price (INR) 275 WACC Calculation Risk free rate 7.% Beta.826 Rm 14.% Re 12.8% D/E 3.% Rd 4.% WACC 11.% Source: Company 25 September 217 3

Story in charts Exhibit 3: Volume growth led by capacity ramp-up Dahej Kochi Total 19. 19.1 16.3 14.4 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.4.9 7.9 8.8 9.8 1.4 11.5.3 - - 7.9 8.8 1.9 1.4 9.7 1.3 11.2 14.1 15.5 16.5 16.6 - -.1.1.3 Exhibit 4: 142mmtpa of liquefaction capacity under construction Africa Asia Pacific Europe FSU Latin America North America Middle East 16 12 8 4 FY1 FY11 FY12 FY17 FY2E 29 215 221 Source: Bloomberg, Platts, MOSL Source: Bloomberg, Platts, MOSL Exhibit 5: EBITDA/PAT margins to improve EBITDA margins (%) PAT margins (%) 11.6 11.8 11.9 12. 11.9 1.5 5.9 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.6 8.9 6.9 3.1 FY17 FY2E FY21E FY22E Exhibit 7: Return ration to improve RoE 4 3 2 1 FY1 FY12 FY2E Exhibit 6: Expect PLNG to report ~17% EPS CAGR over FY17-2E 53% 77% 5% -38% EPS (INR) YoY (%) 5% 12% 13% 23% 28% 1% 14% 19% 4.1 7.3 7.7 4.7 5. 5.6 11.4 14. 18. 18.3 2.8 24.9 FY11 FY17 FY21E Source: IGU, MOSL Exhibit 8: 1Y Fwd P/E P/E (x) Avg (x) Max (x) 2. 19.1 14. 8. 2. Sep-7 Dec-8 Mar-1 Jun-11 Sep-12 14.7 Dec-13 1.4 6.2 Mar-15 2.6 Jun-16 14.5 Sep-17 25 September 217 4

Financials and Valuations Exhibit 9: Not building in tariff hike at Dahej from 221 Exhibit 1: Not building in any tariff hike at Kochi from 218 Dahej tariff (INR/mmBtu) Kochi tariff (INR/mmBtu) Marketing margin on shot-term/spot (INR/mmBtu) 66.6 55.8 33.8 35.5 37.2 39.1 41. 43.1 45.2 47.5 49.9 62. 62.8 65.9 69.2 72.7 75.4 75.4 75.4 Standalone - Income Statement (INR Million) Y/E March 41.6 FY17 FY2E Total Income from Operations 27.7314,672 3.3 3.3 377,476 3.3 395,1 271,334 246,16 266,87 334,37 339,677 Change (%) 9.3 38.6 2. 4.6-31.3-9.3 8.4 25.3 1.6 Raw Materials 293,5 358,424 376,19 25,757 214,169 228,766 285,345 288,198 Employees Cost 37 466 571 717 739 931 1,24 1,438 Other Expenses (3.8) 2,819 3,61 3,94 3,958 5,33 6,15 8,414 9,719 Total Expenditure 296,239 362,491 38,62 255,431 22,238 235,82 295, 299,355 % of Sales 94.1 96. 96.4 94.1 89.5 88.4 88.2 88.1 EBITDA Source: 18,433 Company, 14,984 MOSL 14,39 15,93 25,923 31,67 Source: 39,37 Company, 4,322 MOSL Margin (%) 5.9 4. 3.6 5.9 1.5 11.6 11.8 11.9 Depreciation Exhibit 11: EPS to grow 3x over -19E 1,866 3,81 3,154 Exhibit 12: 3,216 Improving 3,691 return ratios 4,31 5,76 5,885 EBIT 16,567 11,93 11,236 12,687 22,232 26,757 33,61 34,437 Adj EPS EPS Growth (%)-RHS RoE RoCE Int. and Finance Charges 1,184 2,196 2,935 2,387 2,97 1,68 564 7 55.1 28.8 Other Income 42. 1,817 27.7 35.2 838 1,548 1,74 3,466 4,54 5,517 7,62 24.8 PBT bef. EO Exp. 24. 17,2 1,545 9,849 12,4 23,62 3,193 38,564 23.4 41,492 8.7 2.6 EO Items 3.6 1.5 1,323 724 26. 16.5 15.1 15.2 23.4 PBT after EO Exp. 17,2 1,545 11,172 12,728 23,62 3,193 2.8 38,564 41,492 Total Tax 5,71 3,426 2,347 17.9 3,588 6,545-38.1 16.7 9,173 11,569 14,13 Tax Rate (%) 33.2 32.5 21. 28.2 14.4 27.7 13.3 3.4 3. 34. 15.3 9.5 11.8 12.2 18.9 26.8 36.3 36.8 11.4 Reported PAT 11,49 7,119 8,825 9,14 17,57 21,21 26,995 27,389 Adjusted PAT 11,49 7,119 7,52 8,416 17,57 21,21 26,995 27,389 FY12 FY17E FY17E FY2E FY2E Change (%) 4.9-38. 5.4 12.2 12.7 23.2 28.4 1.5 Margin (%) 3.7 1.9 1.9 3.1 6.9 7.9 8.1 8.1 Standalone - Balance Sheet FY12 FY17E FY17E FY2E (INR Million) Y/E March FY17 FY2E Equity Share Capital 7,5 7,5 7,5 7,5 7,5 15, 15, 15, Total Reserves 36,997 42,361 49,386 58,64 73,439 81,57 1,472 12,171 Net Worth 44,497 49,861 56,886 66,14 8,939 96,57 115,472 135,171 Total Loans 27,182 31,965 32,738 22,329 14,5 16, 1 1 Deferred Tax Liabilities 3,91 5,53 7,27 5,886 7,32 7,32 7,32 7,32 Capital Employed 75,589 87,356 96,894 94,355 12,741 119,359 122,874 142,572 Gross Block 35,796 77,946 87,869 9,214 11,57 113,946 116,446 118,946 Less: Accum. Deprn. 12,217 15,295 18,443 22,19 26,277 3,587 36,347 42,231 Net Fixed Assets 23,579 62,65 69,426 68,15 84,23 83,359 8,99 76,714 Capital WIP 43,35 8,799 7,469 15,55 486 2,47 4,547 7,47 Total Investments 1,399 1,399 9 4,66 4,322 4,322 4,322 4,322 Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv. 42,546 46,278 33,392 36,46 49,253 64,921 74,75 95,735 Inventory 1,366 9,557 8,826 2,461 5,45 6,46 8,82 8,22 Account Receivables 16,898 2,156 13,428 9,885 12,18 11,698 14,657 14,89 Cash and Bank Balance 12,685 12,327 3,641 21,767 3,21 15,249 2,89 41,9 Loans and Advances 2,596 4,237 7,497 1,932 28,53 31,513 31,921 31,635 Curr. Liability & Prov. 35,239 31,771 14,292 29,97 35,55 35,29 4,844 41,246 Account Payables 32,94 29,42 12,356 29,752 35,39 3,245 34,365 34,673 Provisions 2,299 2,729 1,936 155 16 5,45 6,479 6,573 Net Current Assets 7,36 14,57 19,1 6,139 13,73 29,631 33,96 54,489 Appl. of Funds 75,589 87,355 96,894 94,354 12,741 119,359 122,874 142,572 E: MOSL Estimates 25 September 217 5

Financials and Valuations Standalone - Income Statement (INR Million) Y/E March FY17E Total Income from Operations 314,674 377,476 395,1 271,334 244,693 28,964 375,426 Ratios Change (%) 38.6 2. 4.6-31.3-9.8 14.8 33.6 Raw Y/E Materials March 292,98 358,495 376,19 25,757 FY17 217,269 243,34 324,75 FY2E Employees Basic (INR) Cost 37 466 571 717 742 871 1,341 Other EPS Expenses 7.7 2,8194.7 3,53 5. 3,94 5.6 11.4 3,958 14. 4,32 6,352 18. 8,655 18.3 Total Cash Expenditure EPS 8.9 295,2876.8 362,491 7.1 38,62 7.8 255,431 13.8 222,43 16.9 25,526 21.8 334,72 22.2 BV/Share % of Sales 29.7 93.8 33.2 96. 37.9 44.1 96.4 54. 94.1 64. 9.7 89.2 77. 9.1 89.2 EBITDA DPS 2.5 19,3881. 14,984 2. 14,39 2.5 15,93 2.5 22,65 3.4 3,438 4.3 4,725 4.4 Payout Margin (%) 38.2 6.2 24.7 39.8 4. 48. 3.6 25.75.9 28.1 9.3 1.8 28.1 28.1 1.8 Depreciation Valuation (x) 1,866 3,81 3,154 3,216 3,527 3,979 5,76 EBIT P/E 17,522 11,93 45.7 11,236 4.8 12,687 2.1 19,123 16.3 26,459 12.7 34,965 12.5 Int. Cash and P/E Finance Charges 1,184 2,196 32.2 2,935 29.5 16.5 2,388 13.5 1,596 1,435 1.5 1.3 564 Other P/BV Income 865 838 6. 1,548 5.2 1,74 4.2 2,957 3.6 3,735 3. 4,468 2.5 PBT EV/Sales bef. EO Exp. 17,23 1,545.9 9,849 1.3 12,4 1.4 2,484 1.3 28,759 1. 38,869.9 EO EV/EBITDA Items 25.9 21.6 13.7 11.1 8.2 7.5 PBT Dividend after EO Yield Exp. (%) 1.1 17,23.4 1,545.9 9,849 1.1 12,4 1.1 2,484 1.5 28,759 1.9 38,869 1.9 Total Tax 5,71 3,426 1,24 2,864 6,31 8,628 11,661 FCF per share 5.5 -.3-1.4 15.4-5.8 11. 18.9 19.1 Tax Rate (%) 33.2 32.5 1.4 23.9 3.8 3. 3. Return Ratios (%) Reported PAT 11,493 7,119 8,825 9,14 14,173 2,132 27,28 RoE 28.8 15.1 14.1 13.7 23.2 23.8 25.5 21.9 Adjusted PAT 11,493 7,119 8,825 9,14 14,173 2,132 27,28 RoCE 17.9 11.2 11.8 11.6 2.2 21. 24.1 21.8 Change (%) 8.7-38.1 24. 3.6 55.1 42. 35.2 RoIC 51.2 19.4 11.9 13.3 21.8 19.4 24.6 24.7 Margin (%) 3.7 1.9 2.2 3.4 5.8 7.2 7.2 Working Capital Ratios....... Standalone Asset Turnover - Balance (x) Sheet 4.2 4.3 4.1 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.7 (INR Million) 2.4 Inventory (Days) 12 9 8 3 8 9 9 9 Y/E March FY17E Equity Debtor Share (Days) Capital 2 7,5 19 7,5 12 7,5 13 7,5 18 7,5 16 7,5 16 7,5 16 Total Leverage Reserves Ratio (x) 36,997 42,361 49,386 56,264 66,458 8,937 1,55 Net Net Worth Debt/Equity.3 44,497.4 49,861.5 56,886 -.1 63,764.1 73,958. 88,437 -.2 18,5 -.3 Total Loans 27,182 28,965 23,738 2,61 25, 16, 1 Deferred Standalone Tax Liabilities - Cash Flow Statement 3,91 5,53 7,27 8,71 8,71 8,71 (INR Million) 8,71 Capital Y/E March Employed 75,589 84,356 87,894 FY17 93,84 17,668 113,147 116,815 FY2E OP/(Loss) before Tax 17,23 1,545 9,849 11,992 23,62 3,193 38,564 41,492 Gross Depreciation Block 1,866 35,796 3,81 77,946 3,154 87,869 3,216 3,691 9,377 4,31 92,946 113,946 5,76 116,446 5,885 Less: Direct Accum. Taxes Deprn. Paid -5,71 12,217-3,426 15,295-1,24-2,86 18,443-6,545 22,19-9,173 25,635 29,614-11,569-14,13 35,374 Net (Inc)/Dec Fixed Assets in WC 5,194 23,579-7,559 62,65-13,279 17,87 69,426-25,979 68,268-3,889 67,311 84,332 565 81,72 337 Capital CF from WIP Operations 18,552 43,35 2,641 8,799-1,3 29,435 7,469-5,232 15,342 21,442 22,773 33,32 6,773 33,611 9,273 Total Others Investments 28 1,399 4,62 1,399 7,74 3,616 9 1,274 9 9 9 9 CF from Operating incl EO 18,832 7,261 6,44 33,51-3,958 21,442 33,32 33,611 Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv. 42,546 46,278 33,392 39,97 49,431 57,351 69,317 (Inc)/Dec in FA -1,635-7,647-8,599-9,931-4,796-5, -5, -5, Inventory 1,366 9,557 8,826 2,461 6,83 6,864 9,17 Free Cash Flow 8,197-386 -2,159 23,12-8,754 16,442 28,32 28,611 Account Receivables 16,898 2,157 13,428 9,885 1,726 12,316 16,457 (Pur)/Sale of Investments 499-3,76 283 Cash and Bank Balance 12,685 12,327 3,641 21,829 27,45 34,82 39,658 Loans Others and Advances 2,596 4,237 7,497 5,795 5,172 3,368 4,32 Curr. CF from Liability Investments & Prov. -1,635 35,239-7,647 34,771-8,1-13,637 23,292-4,513 31,396-5, 32,747 36,29-5, -5, 43,746 Account Issue of Payables Shares 2,194 32,94 32,42 1,71 21,356 4,58 2,13 28,811 29,345 31,377 37,216 Provisions Inc/(Dec) in Debt -3,158 2,299 1,782 2,729-5,227-1,49 1,936-7,829 2,585 1,5 3,42-15,9 4,831 6,53 Net Dividend Current Paid Assets -4,387 7,36-1,755 11,57-3,51-4,387 1,1-4,387 8,574-5,92 16,685 21,142-7,58-7,691 25,57 Appl. Others of Funds 75,589 84,356 87,894 93,84 17,668 113,147 116,815 E: CF MOSL from Estimates Fin. Activity -5,351 28-7,27-1,288-1,86-4,43-23,48-7,691 Inc/Dec of Cash 2,846-358 -8,686 18,126-18,557 12,39 4,84 2,92 Opening Balance 9,839 12,685 12,327 3,641 21,767 3,21 15,249 2,89 Closing Balance 12,685 12,327 3,641 21,767 3,21 15,249 2,89 41,9 25 September 217 6

N O T E S 25 September 217 7

Disclosures: The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 214 (herein after referred to as the Regulations). Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH412. MOSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services, Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOSL is a subsidiary company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Ltd. Petronet (MOFSL). MOFSL LNG is a listed public company, the details in respect of which are available on www.motilaloswal.com. MOSL is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Metropolitan Stock Exchange Of India Ltd. 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Registration details of group entities.: MOSL: NSE (Cash): INB23141238; NSE (F&O): INF23141238; NSE (CD): INE23141238; BSE (Cash): INB1141257; BSE(F&O): INF1141257; BSE(CD); MSE(Cash): INB26141231; MSE(F&O): INF26141231; MSE(CD): INE26141231; CDSL: IN-DP-16-215; NSDL: IN-DP-NSDL-152-2; Research Analyst: INH412. AMFI: ARN 17397. Investment Adviser: INA71. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP67) offers PMS and Mutual Funds products. Motilal Oswal Wealth Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP449) offers wealth management solutions. *Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs, Insurance and IPO products. * Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Pvt. Ltd. offers Commodities Products. * Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. offers Real Estate products. * Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd. offers Private Equity products 25 September 217 8