March 217 Managed volatility: a disciplined approach to smoother returns Key takeaways Increased market volatility presents new challenges for investors, as traditional asset allocation has not provided adequate protection against losses during extreme market declines. A managed volatility approach, designed to maintain portfolio volatility within a target range, may help provide better risk-adjusted returns over a full market cycle. Incorporating a managed volatility approach within a diversified portfolio may also help preserve capital during critical phases of retirement and legacy planning. Managed volatility programs may hinder portfolio performance relative to the broader market during certain economic environments. Executive summary A well-constructed asset allocation strategy has historically helped reduce portfolio volatility and mitigate the risk of significant losses. However, the market volatility experienced since 2 has shown that a sophisticated portfolio design investing across many asset classes does not always provide the expected diversification benefits. In fact, the global financial crisis of 28 29 generated surprising levels of volatility and investment declines that exceeded the risk tolerances of many investors; investor concern has persisted throughout the market s subsequent recovery. Dealing with this reality is challenging for many investors, who are often motivated by volatility to switch in and out of their investments, and their portfolios can underperform the broad markets as a result. One approach to address this challenge is to employ a managed volatility strategy that seeks to maintain portfolio volatility within a target range. Such a strategy seeks to reduce risk during extreme equity market declines but allows for some upside participation when markets rise, thereby increasing the potential for higher risk-adjusted returns.
The challenge of market volatility Investors risk tolerances were severely tested during the global financial crisis of 28 29, a period characterized by a worsening of the global economic outlook, partly offset by government and central bank intervention to limit the risk of economic depression, and by initial signs that conditions would eventually improve. Extreme uncertainty over the global outlook pushed market volatility higher, as steep equity market losses over relatively brief periods were punctuated by partial and halting recoveries. The global financial crisis also prompted many investors to question age-old assumptions about diversification. Traditional asset allocation was not enough to prevent material losses in account values; a wide range of equity, alternative, and fixed-income asset classes posted steep losses. Is volatility the new norm? While such event-driven episodes of market volatility will come and go, many experts believe that heightened economic uncertainty and accompanying market volatility will be a recurring trend. Individuals, companies, and governments around the world are in a multi-year process of reducing debt built up over the past decade. This deleveraging process, while good for the long-term health of the markets, has made short-term economic activity and market returns less predictable. Low interest rates and high public debt levels give policymakers fewer tools to combat volatility. Indeed, as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) looks to extract itself from the financial markets, volatility may actually rise with future Fed policy decisions. Meanwhile, the growing connections between global financial markets enable a market shock in one part of the world to easily ripple across the entire financial system. If these predictions are proved to be accurate, investors may have to contend with Nowhere to hide Total returns by asset class (28) 1% 1 TIPS U.S. bonds A year of extreme volatility Over the last 2 years, there were 6 days in which the difference between the intraday high and low of the S&P 5 Index exceeded 1%. All 6 days occurred in 28. 2 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, 217. 3 4 5 6 Emerging markets Int l small cap Global real estate Natural resources Int l stocks U.S. real estate U.S. stocks Bank loans Highyield bonds Source: Morningstar Direct, 217. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 2
March 217 Volatility regimes have been numerous in recent years Standard deviation of the S&P 5 Index measured in rolling one-year periods versus its historical average (2 216) 35 3 25 n Historical average n S&P 5 Index Standard deviation 2 15 1 5 12/ 12/2 12/4 12/6 12/8 12/1 12/12 12/14 12/16 Source: Morningstar Direct, 217. The S&P 5 Index tracks the performance of 5 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Standard deviation measures performance fluctuation generally, the higher the standard deviation, the greater the expected volatility of returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. heightened volatility, either by accepting the steeper ups and downs in their portfolios or by considering strategies designed to improve risk-adjusted returns by reducing volatility without fully sacrificing upside potential. High volatility trading days have also increased Number of trading days in which the S&P 5 Index advanced or declined by more than 2% 25 236 The evidence of heightened volatility is abundant. There have been several periods of higher volatility during the past two decades the most pronounced in 28 using standard deviation of the S&P 5 Index to measure the magnitude of fluctuations in returns versus the index s historical average standard deviation. 2 15 1 5 62 88 192 Day-to-day volatility has also become more pronounced. Looking over the past 4 years at the number of trading days when the returns of the S&P 5 Index fluctuated by 2% or more, it s clear that wide swings in equity market volatility have increased over time. 1977 1986 1987 1996 1997 26 27 216 Source: BlackRock Inc., Bloomberg, daily data from 1/1/1977 to 12/31/216 for the S&P 5 Index. The S&P 5 Index tracks the performance of 5 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. 3
Recovering from losses isn t easy Percentage gain needed to recover from a portfolio loss 15 122% 15% n Gain needed to recover n Portfolio loss 12 1% 9 6 3 5% 11% 18% 25% 33% 43% 54% 67% 82% The percentage gains required to recover from losses underscore the importance of moderating extreme downturns. 3 6 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% 35% 4% 45% 5% 55% 6% Source: John Hancock Investments. How volatility affects your investment account A full understanding of the impact of market volatility requires grasping the realities of recovery math a 5% decline in the value of an asset requires a subsequent 1% gain to recover to its former value. As a result, losses have a larger impact on long-term results than comparably sized gains. This effect became painfully clear to many investors as they tried to recover from the 57% price decline in the S&P 5 Index from its prefinancial crisis peak in October 27 to its subsequent low in March 29. Despite its strong gains during the recovery, the index didn t return to its October 27 level until March 213, or four years after the market hit bottom, and more than five years after its prior peak. The market didn t fully recover until after posting a 131% gain. How volatility affects investor behavior Many long-term investors respond to market volatility by switching among their investments. Behavioral economists have recorded this tendency for years and noted that many investors are inclined to sell investments after they have fallen thereby locking in losses and return to buy only after the markets have rallied, which may be too late to participate in gains. Fund researcher DALBAR, Inc. publishes an annual study that puts the average holding period for stock and bond mutual funds at little more than three years. Retention rates for asset allocation funds are more than a full year longer because the pattern of returns by those funds is less jarring. The result of all this buying and selling is that investors, on average, underperform broad market indexes, primarily because of behavioral considerations. Switching in and out of funds has been harmful to investors Average holding periods and returns, 1999 215 Average holding period for equity fund investors Average annualized return for equity fund investors Average annualized return for S&P 5 Index 3.46 years 4.67% 8.19% Source: DALBAR s 22 nd Annual, Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, DALBAR, Inc., 216. 4
March 217 A managed volatility approach One way of controlling portfolio volatility while still participating in the market s growth potential is to employ a managed volatility strategy, designed to maintain portfolio volatility within a target range. By keeping standard deviation within a target range, portfolio risk is reduced during extreme equity market declines and is increased during periods of lower market volatility. Managed volatility strategies typically maintain a target range of risk by dynamically shifting the allocation of the portfolio between the underlying investments. For example, if portfolio volatility increases above the target range, the managed volatility strategy responds by reducing exposure to equity investments and increasing exposure to cash and cash equivalents. Alternatively, if the portfolio volatility decreases below the target range, exposure to equity investments will increase and exposure to cash will decrease. This approach works well during periods when the market trends in either direction. However, managed volatility strategies tend to lag in choppy, sideways markets. A managed volatility overlay may also weigh down a portfolio s relative performance during periods punctuated by bursts of erratic market gains or losses that is, when the level of market volatility is itself unstable. Reducing the extremes Distribution of yearly S&P 5 Index returns (1928 216) 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1972 1942 1944 1986 1979 A managed volatility approach targets a narrower range of both risk and return relative to what the market has produced over time. 1949 1992 1952 1938 1995 1939 1956 1988 23 1975 1934 1978 1964 1998 1945 1953 1984 212 1961 1997 199 1948 26 29 1955 1981 27 21 1943 198 1977 1987 1971 1976 213 1969 1947 214 1967 1985 1929 25 1965 1951 1936 1957 1946 197 1959 1996 1989 194 1932 211 216 1963 195 1933 22 21 1962 215 24 1983 1991 1935 1937 193 1941 2 1994 1968 1982 1938 1928 1931 28 1974 1973 1966 196 1993 1999 1991 1958 1954 5% to 4% 4% to 3% 3% to 2% 2% to 1% 1% to % % to 1% 1% to 2% 2% to 3% 3% to 4% 4% to 5% 5% to 6% Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, 217. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 5
The benefits of a controlled volatility approach There are a number of potential benefits to the kind of lower volatility approach offered by a managed volatility strategy. The first is the comfort of potentially more consistent risk and returns: Providing a more predictable outcome should allow investors to remain invested during extreme market downturns. When investors choose not to participate in the markets as a result of market volatility, they are arguably doing more damage to their long-term wealth creation than the market ever could. The second potential benefit is that a smoother set of returns can significantly limit losses during extreme market downturns. The following chart illustrates the performance of the S&P 5 Index compared with a risk-controlled index, the S&P Daily Risk Control 15% Index, which limits its standard deviation of returns to 15% per annum. The managed volatility strategy strongly protected in the down market of 28, and while the strategy lagged in the subsequent market rallies, it provided investors with comparable returns and much less risk over all the periods shown combined. Losing less matters more S&P Daily Risk Control 15% Index (limited to 15% volatility) versus S&P 5 Index (2 216) $2,5, 2,, n S&P Daily Risk Control 15% Index n S&P 5 Index $2,185,892 $2,116,681 1,5, 1,, By moderating the steepest losses, a limited volatility version of the S&P 5 Index did a better job of building wealth than the actual S&P 5 Index in this hypothetical scenario. 5, 12/ 12/2 12/4 12/6 12/8 12/1 12/12 12/14 12/16 Source: Standard & Poor s, 217. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance figures assume reinvestment of dividends and capital gains. This chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of any John Hancock product. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 6
March 217 Achieving more consistent risk-adjusted returns is especially important for retirees who are withdrawing money from their accounts on a regular basis. By withdrawing from invested savings when the market is falling, retirees can accelerate the rate of depleting savings, which increases the risk of running out of money in retirement. A managed volatility strategy with downside protection can help moderate the damaging effects of making regular account withdrawals during declining markets. Conclusion Long-term history suggests that a managed volatility approach can be a useful tool within an investor s portfolio. The ability to reduce exposure to riskier assets, such as equities, and increase exposure to cash and cash equivalents during periods of high equity market volatility provides the opportunity to reduce volatility and limit portfolio losses. Conversely, the ability to increase exposure to riskier assets during periods of low volatility may continue to provide the opportunity for upside appreciation. Managed volatility strategies are not without risk, and there is no guarantee that managed volatility strategies will be successfully executed or that the desired results will be achieved. As we ve seen, in a rising equity market, a portfolio using such an approach would likely underperform a similar portfolio not using it, particularly when the market gains are accompanied by high volatility. However, compared with conventional diversified portfolios, managed volatility strategies have the potential to deliver strong relative risk-adjusted returns in periods of declining markets with high volatility. Limiting the volatility that investors experience can also help offset the natural inclination of investors to flee market volatility and park their assets in conservative investment vehicles that offer little chance for growth. With a managed volatility approach, the magnitude of account peaks and dips is diminished, potentially reducing the temptation to make poorly timed moves that can lock in losses or prevent future wealth creation. Preserving more capital Risk-controlled S&P Daily Risk Control 15% Index (limited to 15% volatility) versus S&P 5 Index (2 216) factoring in $5, annual account withdrawals $1,2, 1,, 8, A limited volatility version of the S&P 5 Index did a better job of preserving capital over the past 17 years, even when $85, was withdrawn from each hypothetical account. 6, 4, $47,96 $324,581 2, $5, annual withdrawals n S&P 5 Daily Risk Control 15% Index ($5K withdrawal) 12/ 12/2 12/4 12/6 12/8 12/1 12/12 12/14 12/16 n S&P 5 Index ($5K withdrawal) Source: Standard & Poor s, 217. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance figures assume reinvestment of dividends and capital gains. This chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of any John Hancock product. Withdrawals are deducted on a monthly basis to total $5, annually. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 7
The S&P 5 Index tracks the performance of 5 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or eliminate the risk of a loss. This material is not intended to be, nor shall it be interpreted or construed as, a recommendation or providing advice, impartial or otherwise. John Hancock Investments and its representatives and affiliates may receive compensation derived from the sale of and/or from any investment made in its products and services. Call 1-8-224-3687 or visit www.jhannuities.com for more information, including product and fund prospectuses that contain complete details on investment objectives, risks, fees, charges, and expenses, as well as other information about the investment company, which should be carefully considered. Please instruct your clients to read the prospectuses carefully prior to purchasing. The prospectuses contain this and other information on the product and the underlying portfolios. S&P 5 is a registered trademark of the Standards & Poor s Corporation. John Hancock Variable Annuities are distributed by John Hancock Distributors LLC, member FINRA. John Hancock Variable Annuities are issued and administered by John Hancock Life Insurance Company (U.S.A.), Bloomfield Hills, MI, which is not licensed in New York. In New York, John Hancock Variable Annuities are issued and administered by John Hancock Life Insurance Company of New York, Valhalla, NY. 217 The John Hancock Life Insurance Company (USA). John Hancock Annuities Service Center P.O. Box 55444 Boston, MA 225-5444 New York Contracts: P.O. Box 55445 Boston, MA 225-5445 8-344-129 MLINY391759 VAMVWP 3/17