Recent Trends in Saskatchewan s Labour Market: Implications for PSE Presentation prepared for: SIAST Continuing Education Consultant/Program Head Workshop May 12, 2011 Rob Cunningham D.C. Strategic Management Regina, Saskatchewan 306.585.0635 www.dcsm.ca
Outline DATA SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA S LABOUR FORCE SURVEY OVERVIEW OF SHORT AND LONG TERM EMPLOYMENT TRENDS THE REGINA AND SASKATOON METROPOLITAN AREAS CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EMPLOYED CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POSITIONS SUMMARY & IMPLICATIONS FOR PSE Unless otherwise indicated, these data are from Statistics Canada; estimates and projections are the responsibility of Sask Trends Monitor May 12, 2011 2
May 12, 2011 3 The Labour Force Survey Labour Force Status, Annual Average for 2010, Saskatchewan (adult population = 790,900) Not in the labour force, 15-64 119,800 15% The Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a monthly survey that provides almost all of the current information about the labour market in Canada. Not in the labour force, 65+ 118,100 15% The sample size in Canada is over 50,000 households with about 4,000 in Saskatchewan. Depending on the number of individuals in the households, this yields labour market information for approximately 7,000 Saskatchewan adults per month. Unemployed 28,700 4% Employed 524,300 66% From Saskatchewan s point of view, the main weakness of the LFS is the exclusion of the on-reserve population from the sample. employment rate = 66.3% unemployment rate = 5.2% participation rate = 69.9%
May 12, 2011 4 550 530 Long Term Trends in Saskatchewan Employment Total Employment in Saskatchewan, 1976 to 2010 thousands After dropping sharply in 2001, employment has been growing in recent years at an average annual rate of 1.5%. 510 490 470 This follows a period of about fifteen years with virtually no growth at all. 450 430 410 390 370 average annual growth 1.9% 0.0% 1.4% From 2006 to 2008, the average annual increase was 2.0%. Growth slowed to 1.3% in 2009 and to 0.9% in 2010. 350 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
More People than Jobs P > J More Jobs than People
May 12, 2011 6 Immigration 10 International Migration (Immigration and Emigration) to/from Saskatchewan 9 8 thousands Sharp increase in immigration starting around 2005 7 6 5 4 Significant investment in the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program 3 Immigration Emigration 2 1 Net Flow 0 1981-1982 1985-1986 1989-1990 1993-1997- 1994 1998 July to June 2001-2002 2005-2006 2009-2010 est
May 12, 2011 7 Monthly Employment Trends in Saskatchewan 540 535 Monthly Employment in Saskatchewan, Seasonally Adjusted thousands Adjusted for normal seasonal variations, employment has been effectively flat since early in 2010. 530 525 520 515 510 505 500 495 490 Ja n- 08 Ma r- 08 Ma y- 08 J ul- 08 Se p- 08 No v- 08 Ja n- 09 Ma r- 09 Ma y- 09 J ul- 09 Se p- 09 No v- 09 Ja n- 10 Ma r- 10 Ma y- 10 J ul- 10 Se p- 10 No v- 10 Ja n- 11 Ma r- 11
Long Term Trends in the Labour Force 140 120 thousands Persons Not in the Labour Force (25 to 64 Years of Age) The other long term trend occurring in the province is the gradual but steady decline in the number of those who are neither working nor looking for work. 100 80 60 40 Many of these are stayat-home spouses, early retirees, those with a medical problem or those who live in remote areas. 20 0 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 May 12, 2011 8
Employment Growth from 2005 to 2010 Canada Alta Average Annual Growth in Employment by Province, 2005 to 2010 During the boom years, Saskatchewan s annual employment growth was above the national average for the first time in decades. Sask BC Man Que PEI Ont Nfld NB 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% May 12, 2011 9
May 12, 2011 10 Employment Growth in 2010 Canada Nfld 2010 Growth in Employment by Province in Saskatchewan lagged most other provinces in 2010 as other provinces recovered from the recession. PEI Man BC Que Ont Sask NS Alta NB -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Employment Rates in 2010 Nfld NS BC Employment Rates in 2010, 25 to 54 Years of Age 72.0% 78.8% 79.2% One of the reasons why employment hasn t been increasing even more quickly is a shortage of skilled workers. NB 79.2% PEI Ont Que Alta 79.8% 80.0% 80.8% 82.3% This figure shows that the employment rate (the percentage of the adult population with a job) in the primary labour market age group is now the highest in Canada. Man 84.9% Sask 85.2% Canada 80.5% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% May 12, 2011 11
Employment Growth in Metropolitan Areas 150 thousands Regina and Saskatoon Employment There is a long standing trend toward growth in Saskatoon at the expense of other parts of the province. 140 130 120 Saskatoon Employment among residents of the two metropolitan areas now accounts for about one half of the employment in the province. 110 100 90 Regina 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 The two cities had similar employment levels in the early 1990s but Saskatoon has been growing much more quickly since then although 2010 was a notable exception. May 12, 2011 12
Employment Growth by Region, 2005 to 2010 Saskatchewan Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2005 to 2010 From 2005 to 2010, employment grew in all but one of the seven regions within the province. Saskatoon Southeast Regina West Central North The pace of growth was highest among residents of the Saskatoon metropolitan area and those who live in the southeast (Weyburn/ Estevan) part of the province. East Central Southwest 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% May 12, 2011 13
Employment Growth by Region, 2010 2010 Growth in Employment Saskatchewan Southeast Regina East Central North Southwest Saskatoon LFS has a large enough sample size to provide employment estimates for seven regions in the province including two census metropolitan areas. Employment growth has slowed markedly in Saskatoon in 2010. The best performance in 2010 was in Regina and the southeast/east central parts of the province. West Central -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% May 12, 2011 14
Characteristics of the Employed Employment Trends in Saskatchewan in the five years ending in 2010
Employment by Completed Education, 2005 to 2010 Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2005 to 2010 Less than high school High school only 72,300 131,000 The highest rate of employment growth since 2005 has been among those who have either a high school education or those with a university degree. Partial or incomplete postsecondary Certificate/diploma employment in 2010 46,100 177,900 Growth rates are lower than expected for those with a post-secondary diploma or certificate. University Degree 97,100 All levels of education 524,300-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% May 12, 2011 16
Employment Among Aboriginal People Off-Reserve Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2010 Non-Aboriginal 485,200 First Nation 13,200 We only have Aboriginal employment data for the off-reserve population and only from 2007 on. Employment growth was strong in 2007 with 30% of the provincial employment increase accounted for by people reporting an Aboriginal identity and living off Reserve. Métis Aboriginal total employment in 2010 22,800 36,500 This reversed in the more recent time period with employment growing in the non-aboriginal population more quickly than in the Aboriginal population. -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% May 12, 2011 17
Employment Among Immigrants Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2010 Immigrated in the past five years Immigrated more than five years ago 13,700 22,000 We only have employment data for the immigrant population from 2007 on. Although the numbers are small, the employment growth from 2006 to 2010 among recent immigrants has been quite remarkable. Born in Canada employment in 2010 482,700 Looked at another way, the immigrant population has been responsible for 45% of the employment growth between 2007 and 2010. Total 524,300 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% May 12, 2011 18
Characteristics of the Job Employment trends since 2005 according to the characteristics of the job rather than the characteristics of the person.
May 12, 2011 20 Average Actual Hours Worked, Main Job 37 36 Average Hours Worked at Main Job There is no evidence that the province s employees are working longer hours to meet the increase in demand. 35 34 The average weekly hours worked in 2010 was 33.6 compared with 34.4 in 2005 and 35.2 in 2000. 33 32 31 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Employment Growth by Sector, 2005 to 2010 Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2005 to 2010 Public sector Paid 131,000 292,200 In spite of the booming economy, the public sector (broadly defined to include the crowns, health, and education as well as government proper) is growing more quickly than the private sector. Private sector Self-employed Private sector total employment in 2010 101,100 393,300 During the period from 2005 to 2010, public sector employment increased by an average of 1.8% per year compared with 1.5% per year for the private sector. All 524,300 0% 1% 2% 3% May 12, 2011 21
Employment Growth by Industry Group, 2005 to 2010 Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2005 to 2010 Construction Mining, oil/gas Business services Finance, insurance, real estate Health care and social assistance Utilities Personal and household services Public administration Transportation and warehousing Wholesale & retail trade Educational services Accommodation and food services Manufacturing Information, culture, recreation Agriculture Business support services (incl head offices) All industries employment in 2010 40,100 26,000 23,400 30,500 67,800 5,000 24,300 28,600 25,700 80,200 39,300 30,600 30,500 18,600 41,800 11,700 524,300-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% May 12, 2011 22
Employment Growth by Size of Firm Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2005 to 2010 Less than 20 20 to 99 employment in 2010 168,300 142,600 Employment is growing more quickly in larger firms than in smaller ones. Part of the reason will be the growth in the public sector where firms tend to be larger. 100 to 499 77,200 500 or more 35,200 All paid workers 423,200 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% May 12, 2011 23
Hourly Wage Rates in Saskatchewan $24 Average Hourly Wage Rate, Paid Employees Only The booming economy and shortage of workers has enabled wage rates to rise rapidly. $22 $20 nominal From 2005 to 2010, the increase has averaged 5.4% per year, 3.2% after adjusting for inflation. $18 $16 in constant $2002 $14 $12 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 May 12, 2011 24
Post-Secondary Education
May 12, 2011 26 Employment Rate for Technical School Graduates 94% 92% Employment Rate, Persons with a Post-Secondary Certificate or Diploma, 25 to 54 Years of Age Saskatchewan Manitoba Alberta Canada Post-secondary graduates with a certificate or diploma are more successful in finding employment in Saskatchewan than in Canada or in our neighbouring provinces. 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
May 12, 2011 27 Population Projection for 15 to 19 Year Olds 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 Saskatchewan Population 15 to 19 Years of Age This projection of the number of potential new entrants to the post-secondary system is based on a relatively optimistic population projection prepared for the provincial government in 2008. 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 actual projected The projection suggests that growth in the number of postsecondary students will have to come from higher high school graduation rates or learners in nontraditional age groups. 55,000 50,000 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
May 12, 2011 28 SIAST Enrolment by Campus 18000 SIAST Enrolment by Campus 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 Kelsey Wascana Palliser Woodland 4000 2000 0 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
May 12, 2011 29 SIAST Enrolment by Area 16000 SIAST Enrolment Growth 14000 12000 10000 Continuing Ed 8000 6000 Cert/Dip/Degree Apprenticeship Basic Education 4000 2000 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
PSE Operations Transfers PSE Operations Transfers 2002-2010 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Universities SIAST Regional Colleges Other Institutions May 12, 2011 30
The Forces at Work in Saskatchewan Strengthened economy. In-migration & immigration. We are getting older. Aboriginal population is growing. Information & communications technology is expanding. More Jobs than People (tight labour market). May 12, 2011 31
Three Scenarios 1. Shortage of workers resulting in economic slowdown. 2. Workers attracted from other parts of Saskatchewan, Canada, or the world. 3. Participation rates increase among older workers and Aboriginal residents. May 12, 2011 32
Implications for PSE 1. Increasing productivity will be increasingly important. Skill training has a role to play. 2. Trades training is important and a growth area. 3. Employees will need training on the job. 4. Three populations become very important: Aboriginal people Older workers Immigrants May 12, 2011 33
Implications for PSE cont d 5. Soft-skills are lacking. Employers will be looking for ways to tune up employees on the job. 6. Rapid technological change combined with a tight labour market = growing expectation for ICT-based delivery. 7. Target age of learners shifting away from 15 24 year olds. May 12, 2011 34
Comments or Questions?