Selected Statistics about the Saskatchewan Construction Industry Presented to the: Saskatchewan Construction Association June 2015 Presented by: Mark Cooper, President & CEO Doug Elliott Saskatchewan Construction Association Sask Trends Monitor 320 Gardiner Park Court 444 19 th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan Regina, Saskatchewan S4V 1R9 S4N 1H1 Tel: 306-525-0171 Tel: 306-522-5515 Cell: 306-527-6854 Cell: 306-536-5131 Email: president@scaonline.ca sasktrends@sasktel.net Internet: www.scaonline.ca www.sasktrends.ca June 2015
Outline Economic Overview for Saskatchewan Construction Industry Activity Employment Trends Characteristics of Employees and Positions Wage Rates Investment Drivers Unless otherwise indicated, the statistics in this material are derived from Statistics Canada data or other reliable sources. Some figures will be revised in future releases. Estimates and projections are the responsibility of Sask Trends Monitor. June 2015 2
Saskatchewan Economic Overview
The Economic Drivers $60,000 Components of Provincial Gross Domestic Product (the "Economic Players"), 2013 $ millions $54,693 One way to look at the provincial economy is through the lens of the four main economic drivers or players in the economy. $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $33,420 $17,057 $24,124 $46,072 These four drivers are: consumers; governments; businesses; and out-of-province buyers of our goods and services. The activities of these players interact in complex ways. $10,000 The economy does well when any three of the players are active. During economic booms all four contribute. $0 Consumer spending Government spending Business investment Exports (less imports) June 2015 4
Consumer Spending $25,000 $22,500 $20,000 $17,500 value in $ millions Retail Sales in Saskatchewan Retail sales are the best statistical indicator for consumer spending. Retail sales have grown more quickly than inflation in the last five years. The purchase of new trucks and SUVs was one of the main reasons. $15,000 $12,500 $10,000 $7,500 $5,000 7.0% 13.6% 11.8% 3.4% 7.3% 7.4% 5.1% 4.5% Spending has also increased dramatically on housing, restaurant meals, and international travel. Retail sales have declined by 3% in the first quarter of 2015. A slower year is on the horizon. $2,500 $0-0.5% annual percentage change 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 June 2015 5
Business Investment $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 Capital Investment in New Facilities and Equipment, Saskatchewan, By Sector billions public sector private sector non-residential This figure looks at new investment activity by businesses, governments, and consumers. In the last four years, the private sector has invested $14 billion per year in the province, double the level in 2006. The vast majority of this investment is in the resource sector, that is, mining and oil/gas. The 67% growth in residential housing from 2009 to 2014 is another measure of consumer confidence. $0 Residential Housing 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 est 2014 intent June 2015 6
Government Spending $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 value in $ billions Provincial Government Spending, Saskatchewan 20.9% Government spending is a major driver for institutional construction. Of the three levels of government, the provincial government is the most important. The most recent budget anticipates continued growth in both capital and operating expenditures. $4 3.8% 9.3% 7.4% 3.9% 8.6% 6.8% 2.2% 0.5% $2 annual percentage change -2.5% -2.6% $0 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 est June 2015 7
International Trade $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 value in $ billions International Merchandise Trade, Saskatchewan (customs basis) Exports Imports Net Trade Generally speaking, Saskatchewan runs a trade surplus with other countries and a trade deficit with other provinces. Net international trade (excluding services) has doubled since 2009. This is in spite of the fact that the USA, our largest trading partner, has been in an economic slump. The outlook for international trade in 2015 is positive because of the recovery in the US economy and the lower value of the Canadian dollar. $5 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 June 2015 8
Summary The Saskatchewan economy has been firing on all four cylinders since 2010. A slowdown in business investment and consumer confidence may dampen activity in 2015. June 2015 9
The Saskatchewan Construction Industry
Number of Establishments in Construction Building finishing 2,549 Number of Construction Establishments, by Type, December 2014 (total = 13,220) Other trades 1,751 General residential 3,434 General nonresidential 591 Using information from Revenue Canada, Statistics Canada estimates the number of construction establishments as 13,220 as of December 2014. Many of these will be one-person shops. This is slightly more than the 12,078 of firms registered with the Workers Compensation Board. About one-half (6,539) are located in Regina or Saskatoon. Building equipment 2,222 Structural & exterior 1,432 Heavy & engineering 1,241 June 2015 11
Number of Employers in Construction Building finishing 689 Number of Construction Employers, by Type, December 2014 (total = 5,142) Other trades 628 General residential 1,148 General nonresidential 292 This restricts the numbers to the 5,142 establishments with at least one employee (according to Revenue Canada data). 503 firms have 20 or more employees; 56 have more than 100. Among the employers in the residential and nonresidential sectors, those involved in building equipment (e.g. heating, elevators) are the largest subgroup. Building equipment 1,163 Structural & exterior 751 Heavy & engineering 471 Many of these firms will also work in both the residential sector and non-residential sectors. June 2015 12
Number of Construction Employers 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 Number of Non-Residential Construction Employers in Saskatchewan Excluding those who are general contractors in the residential sector, there were just under 4,000 employers in December 2014. The figure shows that the number has increased by 25% since 2010. 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 June, 2010 Dec, 2010 June, 2011 Dec, 2011 June, 2012 Dec, 2012 June, 2013 Dec, 2013 June, 2014 Dec, 2014 June 2015 13
Contribution to the Economy Contribution to Saskatchewan GDP, Top Five Industry Groups, 2014 Mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction Real estate and rental and leasing 9.4% 21.9% The construction industry (residential and nonresidential) make a substantial contribution to the provincial economy. Estimates for 2014 show that, measured in constant $2007, construction accounts for 7.9% of the provincial GDP the third largest industry group. Construction 7.9% Manufacturing 6.5% Agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting 6.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% June 2015 14
Value of Building Permits The value of building permits issued is the best indicator of the value of activity in the non-residential sector. Note that changes in the value of permits reflect both changes in activity and changes in price. Building permits are leading indicators in the sense that they predict activity in the next six to twelve months.
Value of Non-Residential Building Permits, Saskatchewan $1,400 $1,200 Value of Non-Residential Building Permits, Saskatchewan value in $ millions The value of non-residential permits was increasing at double-digit rates in the mid- 2000s until the worldwide credit crunch led to a slowdown in late 2009 and into 2010. $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 39% 26% 21% 27% 9% 0% 4% annual percentage change -14% -19% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Permits grew again in value from 2010 to 2013 before falling back in 2014. In the first quarter of 2015, permits have increased by 12%, recovering some of the ground lost in 2014. June 2015 16
Non-Residential Construction Activity Building Permits $800 $700 Value of Non-Residential Building Permits by Category, Saskatchewan value in $ millions Commercial In terms of value, nonresidential activity has been concentrated in the commercial sector which accounted for two-thirds of the 2014 permit values. $600 $500 The decline in 2014, on the other hand, was limited to the industrial and institutional sectors. $400 $300 Institutional $200 $100 Industrial $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 June 2015 17
Building Permits by Location $700 $600 $500 Value of Non-Residential Building Permits by Location, Saskatchewan value in $ millions Saskatoon Other Sask The increase in activity has been widely dispersed in the province. The 2014 decline was concentrated in Saskatoon. $400 $300 $200 Regina $100 $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 June 2015 18
Interprovincial Comparison Non-Residential Permits $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 Value of Non-Residential Building Permits in Western Canada value in $ millions Alberta In spite of the recent strong growth in the province, nonresidential activity in other western provinces has also been strong. Saskatchewan s share of the four western provinces is 8%. $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 B.C. $2,000 $1,000 $0 Sask Manitoba 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 June 2015 19
Interprovincial Comparison Growth Rates 25% 20% Average Annual Increase in Non-Residential Permits, 2010 to 2014 21.1% The value of permits has grown even more quickly in other western provinces than in Saskatchewan. The national average over this five-year period was 4.0%. 15% 11.7% In the first quarter of 2015, permits are down nationally and in B.C. and Alberta. They are up in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. 10% 5% 5.4% 4.1% 0% B.C. Alberta Sask Manitoba June 2015 20
Labour Force and Employment The labour force figures cannot distinguish between residential and nonresidential construction so these figures include both. They also include the heavy and engineering construction group. The Statistics Canada survey which yields these figures measures the region or province where you live which may be different from where you work. For those with two or more jobs, we are measuring their main job, that is, the one where they work the most hours. These statistics apply to the construction industry rather than those working in the construction trades.
Construction Industry Employment 70,000 60,000 50,000 Employment in Construction, Saskatchewan, (residential and non-residential) Total In an average month in 2014, there were 57,200 individuals who reported that their main or only job was in the construction industry. This represents for 10% of employment in the province, up from 8% in 2010. 40,000 30,000 20,000 Paid workers only Approximately 30% of those in the industry are selfemployed. From 2010 to 2014, construction employment grew by an average of 7.0% per year. 10,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 In the first few months of 2015, employment growth has slowed to an annual rate of 1.2%. June 2015 22
Interprovincial Comparison of Employment 300,000 Employment in Construction, Western Canada, (residential and non-residential) Construction employment has also grown quickly among Alberta residents. 250,000 Alberta Employment in Saskatchewan represents 10% of the total up from 8% five years ago. 200,000 B.C. 150,000 100,000 50,000 Saskatchewan Manitoba 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 June 2015 23
Interprovincial Comparison 8% 7% 6% Average Annual Increase in Construction Employment, 2010 to 2014 6.4% 7.0% In recent years, employment has grown more quickly in Alberta and Saskatchewan than in Manitoba or Alberta. The national average over this five-year period was 2.5%. 5% 4% 3% 2% 2.4% 1% 0% 0.3% B.C. Alberta Sask Manitoba June 2015 24
Regional Data Meadow Lake North Some employment data are available for seven separate regions within the province. Lloydminster Prince Albert The boundaries for these regions are shown on the left. North Battleford Melfort Saskatoon Humboldt West Central Saskatoon Kindersley East Central Yorkton Melville Swift Current Moose Jaw Regina Southwest Weyburn Southeast Es te van June 2015 25
Construction Employment in 2014 North Construction Employment by Region (residential and non-residential), 2014 7,900 The majority of those working in the industry live in the Saskatoon (35%) or Regina (24%) metropolitan areas. West Central 2,400 East Central 3,800 Southeast 4,700 Southwest 4,800 Regina 13,800 Saskatoon 19,900 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 June 2015 26
Growth in Construction Employment, 2010 to 2014 North Average Annual Increase in Construction Employment, 2010 to 2014 1.3% Employment has grown in each of the seven regions but growth has been slowest in the West Central (Rosetown/ Kindersley) and Northern regions. West Central 1.1% East Central 4.4% Southeast 8.4% Southwest 8.2% Regina 8.1% Saskatoon 9.6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% June 2015 27
Construction Employment in Regina and Saskatoon 25,000 Construction Employment in Regina and Saskatoon Metropolitan Areas In spite of a sharp decline the city experienced in 2011, employment has increased more rapidly in Saskatoon than in Regina. 20,000 15,000 Saskatoon In early 2015, employment is increasing more quickly in Regina than in Saskatoon. 10,000 Regina 5,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 June 2015 28
Construction Employment Outside Regina and Saskatoon 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Construction Employment Outside of the Regina and Saskatoon Metropolitan Areas North Southwest Southeast East Central West Central Outside the two major centres, employment is the highest in the large northern region. Employment among northerners dropped in 2013 and 2014. The lowest level of employment is in the West Central region. In the other three regions, employment has followed a similar trend, that is, generally upward in spite of periodic declines. In early 2015, employment is increasing in the East Central region and declining in the Southwest, West Central, and in the North. 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 June 2015 29
Characteristics of Construction Employees and Construction Jobs These data describe some of the demographic characteristics of those with construction jobs and some of the characteristics of those jobs. These figures apply to the residential and non-residential construction industry and include both employees and the self-employed.
Employment by Sex Construction Employment by Sex, Saskatchewan, 2014 Women 6,000 Average Annual Increase from 2010 to 2014 Women 6.3% Men 7.0% Both Sexes 7.0% Men 51,200 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Men make up 90% of those employed in the construction industry, the highest among fifteen industry groups. From 2010 to 2014, the ratio between men and women was virtually unchanged. June 2015 31
Employment by Age Group Construction Employment by Age Group, Saskatchewan Average Annual Increase from 2010 to 2014 55 & older 9,700 15 to 24 11,000 15 to 24 6.0% 25 to 34 7.2% 35 to 44 8.5% 45 to 54 10,100 45 to 54 3.8% 25 to 34 16,000 55 & older 9.7% All ages 7.0% 35 to 44 10,400 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% The age distribution of construction workers is relatively well balanced. From 2010 to 2014, the number of older workers (55 plus) was growing more quickly than the other age groups. June 2015 32
Employment by Level of Completed Education Construction Employment by Level of Completed Education, Saskatchewan Average Annual Increase from 2010 to 2014 University degree 5,000 Less than high school 4% Certificate or diploma 22,900 Less than high school 8,100 High school, some postsec 4% Certificate or diploma 8% University degree 21% High school, some postsec 21,200 Total 7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% One half of those employed in the construction industry are post-secondary graduates. Employment is increasing more quickly among those with higher levels of education, particularly university degrees. June 2015 33
Employment by Weekly Hours Worked Construction Employment by Weekly Hours Worked, Saskatchewan Average Annual Increase from 2010 to 2014 None or under 30 11,600 None or under 30 5% More than 40 20,800 30 to 40 7% More than 40 9% Total 7% 30 to 40 24,900 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% More than a third of those in the industry are working more than 40 hours/week. The proportion is increasing. June 2015 34
Employment by Job Type Construction Employment by Type of Position, Saskatchewan Average Annual Increase from 2010 to 2014 Selfemployed 16,900 Permanent 8% Temporary or Casual 4% Self-employed 5% Temporary or Casual 6,300 Permanent 33,900 Total 7% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% The majority of those working in the construction industry (59%) are in permanent positions. The proportion is increasing. June 2015 35
Employment by Union Membership Selfemployed 16,900 Construction Employment by Union Membership, Saskatchewan Union member 7,600 Union member Average Annual Increase from 2010 to 2014 4% Not a member 9% Self-employed 5% Total 7% Not a member 32,700 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% In 2014, 13% of those working in the industry were union members and the proportion is falling. June 2015 36
Wage Rates Hourly wage rates are self-reported in the Labour Force Survey. These figures cover both the residential and non-residential sectors.
Average Hourly Wage Rates, Construction Industry $30 $28 $26 $24 $22 $20 Average Hourly Wage Rates, Construction Industry, Saskatchewan Except for a small decline in 2013, wage rates have increased rapidly in the construction industry. In nominal terms, they have increased by an average of 5.5% per year from 2006 to 2014 to reach $27.07 last year. Adjusted for inflation, the increase from 2010 to 2014 averaged 2.0%/year. $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 9.0% 8.1% 5.8% 6.8% 7.8% 5.6% 4.4% 3.4% 0.4% annual percentage change -0.4% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Wage rates are up 4.1% in the first few months of 2015. June 2015 38
Interprovincial Comparison of Wage Rates $35 $30 $25 $20 Interprovincial Comparison of Wage Rates average hourly wage rate B.C. Saskatchewan Alberta Manitoba Construction wage rates in the province were the lowest in western Canada in the mid-2000s. Wages are now comparable with those in B.C. and above those in Manitoba. Wage rates in the province are now 88% of those in Alberta compared with 79% in the mid-2000s. $15 $10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 June 2015 39
Interprovincial Comparisons 5% 4% Average Annual Increase in Hourly Wage Rates, 2010 to 2014 4.1% The figure shows that average construction wage rates in Saskatchewan have been growing more quickly than in the other western provinces. 4% 3% 2.8% 3% 2% 2.2% 2.2% 2% 1% 1% 0% B.C. Alberta Sask Manitoba June 2015 40
Comparison with Other Industry Groups $40 Wage Rates in Saskatchewan for Selected Industry Groups Construction wage rates of $27.07 in 2014 are now above the provincial average of $25.32. $35 $30 There is still a substantial differential with rates in the mining and oil/gas sector and with the utilities (Sask Power and Sask Energy). $25 $20 $15 Utilities Mining/Oil/Gas Construction Provincial Average $10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 June 2015 41
Summary The construction industry is clearly one of the reasons for the strong economic growth in Saskatchewan. It is among the top industries in the province and is increasing more quickly than most. In the non-residential sector, commercial construction has been the main driver. Employment has grown in all parts of the province but the bulk of the growth has occurred in Regina and Saskatoon. In the last five years, construction workers are more likely to be postsecondary graduates, more likely to be working longer hours, and more likely to be in permanent positions. Construction wage rates have increased more quickly than inflation and are now above the provincial average. The gap between Saskatchewan and Alberta has narrowed somewhat. June 2015 42
Capital Investment Drivers Capital investors are the customers for the construction industry. Besides an investment opportunity, investors need political stability, good quality infrastructure, a skilled labour force, price stability, and a low cost of capital.
Political Stability There seems to be more conflict and instability than usual in the world. The Middle East, Greece, Russia, and South China Sea are examples. In this geopolitical environment, Canada in general and Saskatchewan in particular offer a politically stable environment. The Saskatchewan Party is virtually certain to win the next provincial election in Spring 2016. A low level of provincial debt makes any dramatic changes in taxes or royalties unlikely. June 2015 44
Cost of Capital Prime Lending Rate 7% 6% Cost of Credit: Prime Lending Rate for Chartered Banks All else being equal, the cost of capital is not an issue. Interest rates remain at historically low levels. 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 YTD June 2015 45
Commodity Prices Crude Oil and Natural Gas Commodity Prices: Crude Oil (WTI in US$/barrel) Commodity Prices: Natural Gas (Alberta Spot Price), $/Gigajoule $120 $9 $100 $8 $7 $80 $6 $60 $5 $4 $40 $3 $20 $2 $1 $0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 YTD $0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 YTD In spite of the sharp drop late in late 2014, crude oil prices are still higher than in the early 2000s. Natural gas prices, on the other hand, at historically low levels. June 2015 46
Commodity Prices Potash and Uranium $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Commodity Prices: Potash ($/metric tonne K2O equivalent) Commodity Prices: Uranium (US$/pound) $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 YTD $0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 YTD After the spike in the late 2000s, the prices for potash and uranium have settled in at relatively high levels. June 2015 47
Commodity Prices Grains and Oilseeds Commodity Prices: Wheat ($/tonne) Commodity Prices: Canola ($/tonne) $400 $700 $350 $600 $300 $500 $250 $400 $200 $300 $150 $200 $100 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 YTD $100 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 YTD Although down from the recent highs, grain and oilseed prices are still well above the levels they were in the mid 2000s. June 2015 48
Cost Drivers Exchange Rate $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 Cost Drivers: Exchange Rate with US$ Recent changes in the exchange rate increase the cost of material and equipment imported from the USA. On the other hand, exporters of raw materials and manufactured goods will benefit. $0.80 $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 YTD June 2015 49
Infrastructure Both the federal and provincial governments are focussed on infrastructure spending. Some examples from the most recent provincial budget include: $581 million for transportation; $75 million for municipal infrastructure; $248 million for K-12 schools; $47 million for advanced education and training; and $256 million for health. June 2015 50
Cost Drivers Labour Costs $30 $28 $26 $24 $22 $20 Cost Drivers: Construction Industry Wage Rates $ per hour Wage rates in the industry are growing more quickly than the rate of inflation. For most projects, the cost of labour is growing more quickly than other costs. The slowdown in the residential sector and in the oil patch may put some downward pressure on wage rates. $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 YTD June 2015 51
Cost Drivers Construction Materials $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 Cost Drivers: Typical Construction Materials (2010 = $100) These figures average costs for a selection of more than forty different materials typically used in capital construction projects. They range from redi-mix concrete to asphalt and drywall and diesel fuel. Compared with $100 in 2010, the typical basket of materials cost $109 in 2014. Prices are falling in early 2015. $70 $60 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 YTD June 2015 52
Summary Saskatchewan offers a stable political environment. Commodity prices are down from their peak a few years ago but are still above the levels they were in the mid 2000s. Demand and prices are expected to increase as personal incomes in India and China continue to grow. The cost of capital is low. Material prices are growing more slowly than the rate of inflation but the cost of labour is growing more quickly. Public sector spending on infrastructure will be high in the short term. June 2015 53