1 Arizona Voters and Education Issues December December 2017 2017
Methodology 2 Sample 500 live telephone interviews among a representative sample of voters in Arizona. Method Landline (41%) and cell phone (59%) interviews conducted December 7-10, 2017. Sampling Error Plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence level.
Arizona Electorate 3 Philosophy Very Cons. 17% Somewhat Cons. 18% Moderates 30% Liberals 25% Gender Men 47% Women 53% Age 18-34 26% 35-44 13% 45-54 13% 55-64 23% 65+ 26% Party Registration Republicans 36% Democrats 29% Inds./others 34% Ethnicity Caucasians 66% Hispanics 15% African Americans 4% Native Americans 2% Others 8% Vote History 0-1 of 4 35% 2 of 4 22% 3 of 4 16% 4 of 4 27% Education 0-12 years 17% 13-15 years 28% 16 years 28% 17+ years 21% Income Less than $34,999 22% $35,000-$49,999 16% $50,000-$74,999 15% $75,000-$99,999 11% $100,000-$149,999 14% $150,000 or more 9% 2016 Presidential Vote (Among those who voted) Trump 37% Clinton 38% Other 16%
Political Environment 4
Voter Mood: Pessimism Prevails Today 5 Do you believe things in Arizona are generally headed in the right direction, or do you think things are pretty much headed off on the wrong track? (Q1) 60% 48% 46% Dec. 2016 Dec. 2017 40% 40% 34% 19% 14% 0% Right direction Don't know Wrong track Republicans are optimistic, but Democrats are widely pessimistic and Independents/others are divided. Note gender gap: women are pessimistic but men are optimistic.
Education is Still Perceived to Be the Biggest Problem Facing Arizona Today; Health Care Concerns Appear to Be On the Rise 6 Which one of the following, in your opinion, is the biggest problem facing the state of Arizona today? (Q2) Education 40% 46% Illegal immigration Health care Jobs and the economy Government spending too high Taxes are too high 19% 18% 12% 7% 7% 11% 6% NA 3% 6% Dec. 2017 Dec. 2016 Education Concerns: 2010-2017 Dec. 2017 40% Dec. 2016 46% June 2015 36% Nov. 2014 27% Mar. 2014 17% Mar. 2013 17% Apr. 2012 19% Jan. 2011 17% Sept. 2010 12% Government spending too low 3% NA Taxes are too low 1% 2% Transportation 2% 1% 0% 40% 60% Concern about health care is consistent with sentiment throughout the country due to high visibility of health care reform on the national stage.
Arizona s Biggest Problem Today: Key Subgroups (1) 7 County Gender Age All voters Maricopa Pima Others Men Women 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Education 40% 41% 34% 40% 39% 41% 54% 52% 27% 31% 34% Illegal immigration 19% 14% 22% 19% 10% 9% 25% 19% 32% Health care 12% 12% 17% 9% 9% 14% 9% 13% 14% 15% 10% Jobs and the economy Government spending is too high Taxes are too high Government spending is too low 7% 5% 11% 8% 8% 6% 8% 7% 8% 7% 5% 6% 7% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 8% 5% 10% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 4% 3% 3% 2% 6% 4% 2% 3% 3% 1% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 4% 3% 4% Transportation 2% * 6% 3% 2% 2% 3% -- 1% 3% 2% Taxes are too low 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% * -- -- -- 3% 2% *Less than one-half of one percent
Arizona s Biggest Problem Today: Key Subgroups (2) 8 Party Registration All voters Reps. Dems. Inds./ others Ethnicity Caucasians Hispanics Others Education 40% 30% 49% 42% 39% 46% 40% Illegal immigration 19% 34% 8% 14% 21% 7% 22% Health care 12% 10% 15% 10% 12% 15% 9% Jobs and the economy 7% 5% 9% 7% 7% 11% 5% Government spending is too high 6% 8% 2% 7% 5% 6% 8% Taxes are too high 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% 6% Government spending is too low 3% 1% 5% 3% 3% -- 5% Transportation 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2% Taxes are too low 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% --
Biggest Problem Facing Local Schools: Lack of Funding Tops the List Today 9 What, in your opinion, is the biggest problem facing public schools in your community today? (Q17) Lack of funding (general) 13% Low teacher salaries/lack of funding for teacher pay 12% 15% Dec. 2017 Dec. 2016 Funding/funding education/ financing (general) 3% 10% Poor quality of education/low educational standards/poor curriculum 6% 7% Inappropriate/inefficient use of funds 4% 3% Unqualified/low quality staff/ teachers 4% 6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 25%
Biggest Problem Facing Local Schools: Key Subgroup 10 Party Registration All voters Reps. Dems. Inds./others Lack of funding (general) 14% 28% 19% Low teacher salaries/lack of funding for teacher pay Funding/funding education/financing (general) Poor quality of education/low educational standards/poor curriculum 12% 11% 14% 12% 10% 8% 13% 10% 6% 6% 4% 7% Inappropriate/inefficient use of funds 4% 4% 2% 5% Unqualified/low quality staff/teachers 4% 7% 1% 3% Education funding is more likely to be a worry among Democrats than Republicans or Independents.
11 Image Ratings of Elected Officials and Education Organizations
The Arizona Legislature: Key Subgroups 12 Dec. 2016 Favorable, 31% Unfavorable, 36% No opinion/not aware, 34% Dec. 2017 Favorable, 28% Unfavorable, 45% No opinion/not aware, 28% Favorable Unfavorable No opinion/ not aware Net favorable All voters 28% 45% 28% -17% County Maricopa 22% 50% 28% -28% Pima 40% 31% 29% +9% Others 32% 40% 27% -8% Age 18-34 29% 29% 42% -- 35-44 22% 50% 28% -28% 45-54 26% 45% 29% -19% 55-64 32% 53% 15% -21% 65+ 27% 50% 23% -23% Party Registration Republicans 34% 37% 29% -3% Democrats 19% 58% 22% -39% Inds./others 27% 41% 31% -14% Ethnicity Caucasians 29% 46% 24% -17% Hispanics 22% 44% 34% -22% Others 29% 32% 40% -3%
Arizona Department of Education: Key Subgroups 13 Dec. 2017 Favorable, 23% Unfavorable, 61% No opinion/not aware, 16% Favorable Unfavorable No opinion/ not aware Net favorable All voters 23% 61% 16% -38% County Maricopa 21% 62% 17% -41% Pima 25% 53% 22% -28% Others 26% 62% 12% -36% Age 18-34 25% 55% -30% 35-44 21% 64% 16% -43% 45-54 19% 62% 19% -43% 55-64 25% 64% 11% -39% 65+ 23% 61% 16% -38% Party Registration Republicans 25% 58% 17% -33% Democrats 23% 62% 15% -39% Inds./others 21% 62% 17% -41% Ethnicity Caucasians 22% 60% 18% -38% Hispanics 26% 66% 8% -40% Others 27% 56% 17% -29%
Superintendent Diane Douglas: Key Subgroups 14 Dec. 2017 Favorable, 13% Unfavorable, 34% No opinion/not aware, 52% Favorable Unfavorable No opinion/ not aware Net favorable All voters 13% 34% 52% -21% County Maricopa 12% 41% 47% -29% Pima 13% 13% 74% -- Others 16% 30% 54% -14% Age 18-34 14% 19% 67% -5% 35-44 11% 32% 57% -21% 45-54 10% 39% 51% -29% 55-64 14% 43% 43% -29% 65+ 15% 40% 45% -25% Party Registration Republicans 16% 31% 53% -15% Democrats 9% 43% 47% -34% Inds./others 14% 30% 57% -16% Ethnicity Caucasians 12% 35% 53% -23% Hispanics 16% 31% 53% -15% Others 17% 32% 51% -15%
Arizona State Board for Education: 15 Key Subgroups Dec. 2017 Favorable, 19% Unfavorable, 54% No opinion/not aware, 26% Favorable Unfavorable No opinion/ not aware Net favorable All voters 19% 54% 27% -35% County Maricopa 19% 55% 26% -36% Pima 14% 47% 40% -33% Others 22% 57% 21% -35% Age 18-34 57% 23% -37% 35-44 23% 50% 27% -27% 45-54 14% 55% 31% -41% 55-64 57% 22% -37% 65+ 18% 50% 32% -32% Party Registration Republicans 22% 51% 27% -29% Democrats 51% 28% -31% Inds./others 15% 60% 25% -45% Ethnicity Caucasians 18% 53% 30% -35% Hispanics 62% 18% -42% Others 26% 51% 23% -25%
16 Current Perceptions of Arizona Public Schools
Current Perceptions of Arizona Public Schools 17 How would you grade A, B, C, D or Fail? Arizona s Public Schools (Q15) Public Schools in Your Community (Q16) 60% Dec. 2016 Dec. 2017 60% Dec. 2016 Dec. 2017 50% 50% 40% 30% 22% 30% 35% 40% 41% 40% 30% 41% 36% 26% 31% 25% 25% 17% 10% 10% 0% A/B C D/Fail 0% A/B C D/Fail
Arizona Public Schools: Key Subgroups 18 A/B C D/Fail All voters 17% 35% 41% Party registration Republicans 37% 37% Democrats 30% 41% Independents/others 13% 37% 46% Kids/grandkids in school? No 16% 34% 41% Yes 19% 36% 41%
Public Schools in Your Community: Key Subgroups 19 A/B C D/Fail All voters 36% 31% 25% Party registration Republicans 38% 31% 25% Democrats 37% 30% 25% Independents/others 34% 33% 26% Kids/grandkids in school? No 32% 33% 24% Yes 43% 29% 26%
Grading the Arizona Legislature on Public Schools: Key Subgroups 20 A/B C D/Fail All voters 9% 27% 52% Party registration Republicans 12% 31% 41% Democrats 7% 18% 66% Independents/others 8% 30% 51% Kids/grandkids in school? No 10% 26% 49% Yes 10% 28% 57% 2016 Presidential vote Yes, Trump 17% 33% 36% Yes, Clinton 5% 21% 67%
Arizona Public Schools vs. Most Other States: Worse 21 In general, do you believe most public schools in Arizona are better, about the same or worse than public schools in most other states? (Q21) 60% 59% 57% Dec. 2016 Dec. 2017 40% 27% 27% 6% 5% 8% 10% 0% Better About the same Worse Don t know There is consensus agreement among voters in most subgroups that Arizona s public schools are worse than public schools in most other states.
Arizona Public Schools vs. Most Other States on 3 rd Grade Reading Levels: Nearly Half Say AZ is Worse 22 To the best of your knowledge, are third grade reading levels in Arizona higher, about the same or lower than third grade reading levels in most other states? (Q22) 60% 48% 40% 27% 4% 0% Higher About the same Lower Don't know
23 Funding Arizona Public Schools and Prop. 301
Public School Funding: Does Arizona Have Enough Money or Should State Spend More? 24 Do you think Arizona public schools currently have the money needed to provide students with a quality education, or do you think the state should be spending more on schools? (Q20) 80% Dec. 2016 Dec. 2017 77% 78% 60% 40% 18% 17% 6% 5% 0% Public schools have the money needed Don't know State should be spending more Wide majorities of voters throughout the state in all subgroups believe the state should be spending more on schools, including Republicans.
Majority Continues to Support Higher Taxes to Fund Arizona Public Schools 25 Would you vote for or against increasing taxes in order to provide additional funding for Arizona s public schools? (Q23) 80% 60% 63% 40% 39% 33% 24% 22% 11% 4% 0% Definitely for Probably for Total for Don't know Total against Probably against Definitely against
Voter Support for Higher Taxes to Fund Arizona Public Schools: Key Subgroups 26 For Don t know Against Net for All voters 63% 4% 33% +30% County Maricopa 64% 3% 33% +31% Pima 62% 3% 35% +27% Others 61% 6% 33% +28% GOP/philosophy Very Conservative Republicans 41% 3% 55% -14% Somewhat Conservative Republicans 42% 11% 46% -4% Moderate/Liberal Republicans 67% 2% 31% +36% Kids/grandkids in school? No 63% 4% 33% +30% Yes 63% 3% 34% +29% Even among GOP voters, half support higher taxes for public schools.
Preferred Tax Increase for Public School Funding 27 Which one of the following taxes would you prefer to see increase in order to provide additional funding for public schools? (Q24) Liquor tax* 31% Sales tax 15% Soda tax 12% Property tax 8% Income tax Real estate tax 5% 8% *Liquor tax was not an available option in the Dec. 2016 survey. Gas tax 3% Utility tax 1% No tax increases 14% Other/don't know 6% 0% 40% There is partisan agreement on most taxes, with the exception that Democrats prefer income tax much more than Republicans or Independents.
Most Voters are Positive About a State Official Who Supports Tax Increases to Fund Schools 28 Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a state official who voted to increase taxes in order to provide additional funding for public schools in Arizona? (Q25) 80% 60% 64% 40% 33% 31% 26% 17% 10% 9% 0% Much more likely Somewhat more likely Total more likely Don't know Total less likely Somewhat less likely Much less likely Wide majorities of Democrats (79%) and Independents/others (65%) are more likely to vote for a state official supporting a tax increase. Very Conservative Republicans are marginally negative, somewhat Conservative Republicans are marginally positive, but a majority of Moderate/Liberal Republicans are positive.
Majority Supports Increasing Taxes for Education if Spending is Accountable to Taxpayers 29 Here are what two people are saying about additional funding for public schools in Arizona. Smith supports increasing taxes to provide additional funding for public schools, so long as the revenue generated from the tax is targeted and spent in a way that is accountable to taxpayers. Jones says funding public schools is important, but he would not support raising taxes in order to provide additional funding. He says the money should be found elsewhere in the state s budget. Which of these views comes closest to your own? (Q26) 60% 56% 40% 36% 36% 25% 8% 11% 0% Strongly Smith Smith Total Smith Don't know Total Jones Jones Strongly Jones While Democrats and Independents widely support increasing taxes (Smith), Republicans are divided on this issue (45% Smith/45% Jones).
Arizonans Favor Renewing Prop. 301 30 As you may know, in the year 2000, Arizona voters approved Proposition 301, raising the state sales tax from 5 cents to 5.6 cents, with the increased funds dedicated to public schools, including teacher pay, university research and community colleges. Currently Prop 301 provides $660 million to schools each year. That six tenths of a cent sales tax increase expires in June 2021. If a proposal to renew Prop 301 was on the ballot today, would you vote to continue the six tenths of a cent sales tax for public schools or would you vote to end the six tenths of a cent sales tax for public schools? (Q27) 80% 77% 76% Dec. 2016 Dec. 2017 60% 56% 56% 40% 21% 19% 14% 15% 4% 3% 6% 5% 0% Definitely vote to continue Probably vote to continue Total continue Don t know Total end Probably vote to end Definitely vote to end Majorities among all key demographic subgroups would renew Prop 301.
Arizonans Favor Renewing Prop. 301: Key Subgroups 31 Continue Don't know End Net continue All voters 76% 3% +56% County Maricopa 77% 4% 19% +58% Pima 74% -- 26% +48% Others 76% 4% +56% Party registration Republicans 66% 4% 30% +36% Democrats 86% 2% 12% +74% Independents/others 79% 4% 17% +62% GOP/philosophy Very Conservative Republicans 58% 3% 39% +19% Somewhat Conservative Republicans 69% 2% 29% +40% Moderate/Liberal Republicans 77% 5% 19% +58%
Support for Increases in Sales Tax Beyond 6/10ths of a Cent 32 If the proposed renewal of the Prop. 301 sales tax increased the sales tax from six-tenths of a cent to one cent in order to provide additional funding for public schools, would you vote for or against it knowing that the sales tax would be four-tenths of a cent higher than it is now? (Q28) Another proposal that would renew the Prop 301 sales tax for schools would increase the Prop 301 sales tax to one point six cents instead of six tenths of a cent - a sales tax increase of one cent. If there was an election today, would you vote for or against extending and increasing the sales tax to one point six cents to provide additional funding for public schools? (Q29)* 80% 60% 65% 64% Dec. 2016 Dec. 2017 80% 60% 61% Dec. 2016 Dec. 2017 50% 43% 40% 30% 31% 40% 34% 5% 4% 5% 6% 0% 0% Total for one cent Don t know Total against one cent Total for 1.6 cents Don t know Total against 1.6 cents *Question language in 2017 did not include the phrase to restore $1 billion per year that was cut from public schools during the recession.
Prop. 301 One Cent Increase: Key Subgroups 33 For one cent Don t know Against one cent Net for one cent All voters 64% 4% 31% +33% Party registration Republicans 54% 4% 42% +12% Democrats 76% 6% 18% +58% Independents/others 66% 3% 31% +35% GOP/philosophy Very Conservative Republicans Somewhat Conservative Republicans Moderate/Liberal Republicans 51% 3% 46% +5% 44% 7% 49% -5% 70% 2% 28% +42%
Prop. 301 1.6 Cent Increase: Key Subgroups 34 For 1.6 cents Don t know Against 1.6 cents Net for 1.6 cents All voters 50% 6% 43% +7% Party registration Republicans 40% 5% 55% -15% Democrats 60% 8% 31% +29% Independents/others 52% 7% 42% +10% GOP/philosophy Very Conservative Republicans Somewhat Conservative Republicans Moderate/Liberal Republicans 28% 6% 65% -37% 35% 2% 62% -27% 60% 5% 35% +25%
ELL Reform 35
Seven-in-Ten Support ELL Reform 36 Current law requires students for whom English is not their primary language, known as English Language Learners, or ELL, to participate in a 4-hour sheltered English immersion block, where they spend 4 hours a day in classrooms where only English is spoken. Would you favor or oppose changing Arizona s ELL requirements to allow local school districts and charter schools the flexibility to adopt a different program to teach children English faster? (Q30) 80% 72% 60% 40% 41% 31% 13% 15% 8% 8% 0% Strongly favor Somewhat favor Total favor Don't know Total oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose ELL reform finds majority support among all subgroups, including Republicans.
Strong Support for Teaching English Faster 37 Studies have also shown that the graduation rate of English Language Learners, or ELL, in Arizona is one of the lowest in the country. State data also shows that under the state s current ELL teaching requirements, Arizona students are not learning English. Recently released statewide test scores showed that two-thirds of all Arizona schoolchildren learning English failed the testing. Currently, over 80,000 students are not proficient in the English language. Would you favor or oppose changing Arizona s ELL requirements to allow local school districts and charter schools the flexibility to adopt their own high-quality programs to teach children English faster? (Q31) 100% After hearing more about this issue, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate who wants to ensure that taxpayer dollars are being used efficiently to provide non-native English speakers a high-quality program to teach them English faster which would include modernizing the 4-hour sheltered English immersion block? (Q32) 100% 80% 81% 80% 78% 60% 60% 40% 40% 6% 12% 10% 12% 0% Favor Don't know Oppose 0% More likely Don't know Less likely
Early Literacy 38
Perceptions of Current State Investment Levels in Early Literacy 39 This year, an $8 million grant was provided to targeted support for schools with struggling students, to increase reading skills. Next year that grant could increase to $12 million, or about $40 for each student in grades 1-3. Do you think that the state should spend more than $12 million to increase reading skills, less than $12 million or is $12 million about the right amount? (Q33) 40% 39% 34% 24% 14% 17% 10% 0% A lot more A little more Total more Less About the right amount Don't know
Perceptions of Current State Investment Levels in Early Literacy: Key Subgroups 40 More Less About the right amount Don't know Net more over less All voters 39% 10% 34% 17% +29% County Maricopa 40% 11% 31% 18% +29% Pima 31% 15% 37% 17% +16% Others 40% 6% 41% 13% +34% Age 18-34 43% 5% 40% 12% +38% 35-44 48% 9% 29% 14% +39% 45-54 42% 12% 34% 11% +30% 55-64 35% 17% 29% 19% +18% 65+ 31% 9% 36% 23% +22% Party Registration Republicans 27% 14% 44% 15% +13% Democrats 48% 3% 28% 21% +45% Inds./others 43% 12% 30% 14% +31% Tax Increase for Public Schools For 48% 2% 34% 16% +46% Don t know 25% -- 28% 47% +25% Against 23% 27% 37% 14% -4%