Index Closing Chg Chg % Sensex 28442.1-437.28-1.51% Nifty 8606-174.35-1.99% Auto 19113-695.75-3.51% Bankex 21091.13-519.79-2.41% Cap Goods 17398.33-326.19-1.84% Cons Durables 10720.64-150.63-1.39% Metal 10128.62 43.94 0.44% Oil & Gas 9810.39 131.06 1.35% PSU 7997.47 28.68 0.36% Tech 6191.11-223.78-3.49% TOP GAINERS Closing Chg Chg % Sesa Sterlite 211.25 16.50 8.48% ONGC 330 20.05 6.46% Idea Cellular 196.95 8.80 4.69% SBI 291.75 11.20 3.99% Bank of baroda 177.6 6.30 3.67% TOP LOSERS Closing Chg Chg % Lupin 1770.05-231.25-11.47% Hero Motocorp 2410.5-200.1-7.66% Indusind bank 876-69.7-7.38% TCS 2474.85-188.2-7.06% Axis bank 533.7-39.05-6.83% Currency Rates Price as on date USDINR 62.44 EURINR 67.6275 GBPINR 93.8525 JPYINR 52.64 Weekender APRIL 17, 2015 Outlook This Week: Industrial production grew 5 percent in February on account of improvement In manufacturing activity and a rebound in consumer non-durables. Factory output, measured by Index of Industrial production (IIP) was 2.6 percent in January. BSE, which was the first exchange to enter the just-launched International Financial Services Centre (IFSC) in Ahmedabad, has said it hopes to commission its exchange there within 12-18 months. Tata Motors DVR, Future Retail DVR shares with differential voting rights (DVRs) are likely to be included in the benchmark index Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) from June. SEBI under pressure to tighten scrutiny, is taking as long as a year to approve initial public offerings, prompting criticism from firms already grappling with unpredictable demand and a lack of alternative funding sources. India will overtake China as the fastest growing emerging economy in 2015-16 by clocking a growth rate of 7.5 per cent on back of recent policy initiatives, pick-up in investments and lower oil prices, International Monetary Fund (IMF) said. Wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation for March fell to a new low of -2.33 percent, the fourth successive month of deflating prices after the flat reading in November. The WPI reading for February was -2.06 percent. The European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates on hold on Wednesday, one month after the launch of its 1 trillion-euro ($1.1 trillion) quantitative easing (QE) program. The central bank left its main interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.05 percent. S&P has downgraded Greece's credit rating again, saying it expects its debt and other financial commitments will be "unsustainable". Brent crude oil hit 2015 highs above $63 per barrel on Thursday
Commodity Spot Prices Price as on date Castor seed (100kg) 3607.25 Chana (100kg) 3830 Coriander (100kg) 9053.35 Jeera (30kg) 17291.65 Mustardseed (100kg) 3674.55 Soy bean (100kg) 3697.5 Economic Events Date Event Forecast Previous 21 Apr Tue EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (APR) 54.80 Stock Specific news: SpiceJet has expanded its Boeing fleet to 20 aircraft, with the carrier taking delivery of three B-737s from a Czech company on a short term wet-lease. This is the first fleet expansion after new promoter Ajay Singh took over the reins of SpiceJet in February LIC has bought 7.98 crore shares, or 2.13 per cent, of NMDC to take its total stake in the state-run iron ore miner to 10.12 per cent. Based on the current share price of NMDC at Rs 135.60 apiece, LIC's holding in the company is valued at over Rs 5,440 crore. Hindustan Construction Company Ltd decided to allot 13.3 crore shares of face value of Rs 1 at a price of Rs 30 per equity share worth about Rs 400 crore to institutional Investors. HDFC Ltd got RBI clearance to raise up to $ 500 million (about Rs 3,100 crore) as Exteral Commercial Borrowing (ECB) to fund its business growth. Nuziveedu Seeds Ltd, in which the Blackstone Group holds a 25 per cent stake, is set to file for a market listing to raise up to $200 million. 24 Apr Fri 24 Apr Fri USD Durable Goods Orders (MAR) India Foreign Reserves 18 /APR 0.80% -1.40% VRL Logistics hit the capital markets on 15 th April with an estimated Rs 468-crore initial public offer (IPO)and close on April 17. The IPO constitutes of a fresh issuance of Rs 117 crore worth of equity shares and an offer for sale of 1.71 crore equity shares by NSR-PE Mauritius LLC and the promoters' family. The company has fixed price band of Rs 195-205 per share for its proposed IPO. Based on the price band, the IPO could raise between Rs 451 crore and Rs 468 crore through its initial share-sale programme. Ashoka Buildcon Ltd said it will issue shares at a floor price of Rs 185.05 apiece to institutional investors. Tata Motors reported a growth rate of 9 per cent in global sales, including Jaguar Land Rover's, at 1,03,952 units in March. The company had sold 95,668 units in the same month last year. RBI allowed foreign investors to invest up to 49 per cent of the paid-up capital in Eicher Motors. FIIs held 19.47 per cent shares on the company as of quarter ended December 2014. Outlook Next week: Better than expected macroeconomic figures may keep markets firm led by capital goods, engineering and banking stocks Upgrades from Moody's on India's sovereign rating may cap market declines in the near term. Earnings seasons had started, which would keep the market volatile and decide the course of the action. Results for next week: HCL Tech, Wipro, Yes Bank, Cairn India, HDFC Bank, and Siemens. 2
WEEKENDER STOCK IDEA Monsanto India short term investment idea Company overview: Monsanto India (Monsanto) is the only listed seed company outside the USA in Monsanto group. Monsanto is in India since 1949 and has a strong connect with farmers. Monsanto s business in India comprises of high yielding hybrid maize (corn) seeds (62% of revenues), marketed as brand Dekalb and crop protection herbicide brand Roundup (38% of revenues). Investment Rationale:- Monsanto is selling hybrid corn seeds (60% of revenues) and glyphosate herbicide 40%) under the Round up brand. While there is pressure on glyphosate business following intensified competition and therefore lower prices/margins, the corn hybrid business outlook is promising. The real game changer on the horizon is approval for GM Corn. Monsanto is in the final leg of submitting its field trial research data on GM corn (Insect resistant and herbicide tolerant) to the Indian government. Concern and Risk: Investing in biotech firms such as Monsanto is risky. The sector comprises companies that have an 85% to 95% failure rate on everything they attempt to invent. Even to achieve success takes about 10 to 12 years, and most biotech businesses do not have any measurable revenue for a long period of time. However, this volatility can turn otherwise, should they succeed in a single product launch. Weather is an inherent risk to seeds/agri input business. 3
Monsanto chart: Buy at CMP of 3063.50 Stop loss 2600 Target 4000 (30.57% return) Period : for next 8 months 4
Disclosures: (a) The research analyst or research entity or his/their associates or his/their relatives do not have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject company or any financial interest in the subject company (b) The research analyst or research entity or his/their associates or his/their relatives do not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance (c) The research analyst or research entity or its associates have not received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services nor received any compensation for products or services from the subject company in the past twelve months (d) The research analyst or research entity or its associates have not received any other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report (e) The subject company is not or was not a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report and the types of services provided by the research analyst or research entity or his/their associates or his/their relatives (f) The research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company (g) The research analyst or research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company 5
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