InterTrade Ireland Economic Forum 25 November 2011 The jobs crisis: stylised facts and policy challenges John P. Martin Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD
The jobs crisis An unprecedented crisis OECD-area UR jumped from 25-year low of 5.8% at the end of 2007 to a post-war high of 8.8% in October 2009. Since then, it has dropped but has been stuck at around 8.2% since January 2011 And it is far from over
Part I What are the labour market impacts of the crisis?
The unemployment impact so far differs greatly across countries Percent of the labour force % December 2007 September 2011 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Korea Norway Switzerland Austria Japan Netherlands Luxembourg Australia Mexico Israel Germany New Zealand Czech Republic Belgium Denmark Canada Iceland Sweden Chile Northern Ireland Finland Slovenia United Kingdom Italy Turkey United States Poland France Hungary Portugal Estonia Slovak Republic Ireland Greece Spain OECD G7 European Union Euro Area OECD Europe Note: All data are seasonally adjusted. Latest data: July 2011 for Greece, Norway and Turkey; July September 2011 for Northern Ireland; August 2011 for Chile and the United Kingdom; 2011 Q2 for Estonia, Israel and Switzerland; 2011 Q3 for Iceland and New Zealand (OECD harmonised unemployment rate data are not available on a monthly basis for the last five of these countries). Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators and Northern Ireland Statistics & Research agency.
Different margins of adjustment in the labour market: Employment vs. hours Total percentage change from GDP peak to 2010 Q4 % Change in total employment Change in average hours worked 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 5
Who have suffered the most during the jobs crisis? Percentage change of employment over 2008 Q2 to 2011 Q2 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 14.0 18.7 8.1 Both sexes Men Women 48.9 Youth (15 24) 9.9 Prime age (25 54) Ireland 1.0 Older workers (55 64) 36.5 Low skilled 16.5 Medium skilled 5.5 High skilled 15.0 15.4 Self employed Permanent workers Gender Age groups Education Workforce groups 9.2 Temporary workers 1.5 2.3 0.6 Both sexes Men Women 8.8 Youth (15 24) 1.9 Prime age (25 54) 7.2 Older workers (55 64) OECD 6.7 Low skilled 3.0 Medium skilled 6.3 High skilled 1.9 0.9 1.4 Self employed Permanent workers Gender Age groups Education Workforce groups Temporary workers 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 Data are not seasonally adjusted. OECD is the weighted average of the OECD countries excluding Chile. Australia, Japan and New Zealand are also excluded for statistics by education and also Australia, New Zealand and the United States for statistics on permanent and temporary workers. Source: OECD calculations based on quarterly national Labour Force Surveys.
Who have suffered the most during the job crisis? (cont.) Percentage change of employment over 2008 Q2 to 2011 Q2 20 15 United Kingdom Northern Ireland 15.7 14.5 13.0 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 1.8 2.2 1.2 11.1 0.1 1.6 8.1 2.7 3.1 0.8 1.9 3.9 12.0 0.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.3 3.3 5.6 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 16.0 20 Both sexes Men Women Youth (15 24) Prime age (25 54) Older workers (55 64) Low skilled Medium skilled High skilled Self employed Permanent workers Temporary workers Both sexes Men Women Youth (16 24) Prime age (25 49) Older workers (50 64) Low skilled Medium skilled High skilled Self employed Permanent workers Temporary workers Gender Age groups Education Workforce groups Gender Age groups Education Workforce groups n.a.: Not available. Data are not seasonally adjusted. OECD is the weighted average of the OECD countries excluding Chile. Australia, Japan and New Zealand are also excluded for statistics by education and also Australia, New Zealand and the United States for statistics on permanent and temporary workers. Source: OECD calculations based on quarterly national Labour Force Surveys.
Recessions not only hurt lots of people, but also take a long time to fix Harmonised unemployment rates (% of total labour force) in Ireland, January 1970 to September 2011 18 16 14 12 7 years 5 years 3 years 3 years 4 years 2 years 10 8 6 4 2 8 years 11 years 8months 4 years 1 months 0 Jan 70 Jan 75 Jan 80 Jan 85 Jan 90 Jan 95 Jan 00 Jan 05 Jan 10 8
UK has succeeded in cutting structural UNR Harmonised unemployment rates (% of total labour force) in the United Kingdom, January 1970 to September 2011 12 10 8 10 years 7 years 6 4 years 5 years 5 years 2 years 4 years 5 months 7 months 3 years 10 months 4 31 years 8 months 2 37 years 10 months 0 Jan 70 Jan 75 Jan 80 Jan 85 Jan 90 Jan 95 Jan 00 Jan 05 Jan 10 9
Northern Ireland has been very successful in cutting UNR Harmonised unemployment rates (% of total labour force) in Northern Ireland, 1970 Q1 to 2011 Q2 (calendar quarters) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 18 years 5months 4 years 4 months 0 Jan 70 Jan 75 Jan 80 Jan 85 Jan 90 Jan 95 Jan 00 Jan 05 Jan 10 10
Long-term unemployment is rising rapidly in the countries with the biggest unemployment crisis Share of long-term unemployed (more than one year) in total unemployment, second quarters of 2008 and 2011 % 2008 Q2 2011 Q2 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Data are not seasonally adjusted. OECD is the weighted average of 32 OECD countries excluding Chile and Korea. 2007 Q4-2010 Q4 for Israel and Mexico. Source: OECD calculations based on quarterly national Labour Force Surveys.
Youth unemployment is a major concern Percent of labour force, persons aged 15-24* Ireland United Kingdom Northern Ireland OECD 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 *16 24 for Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom. The series for Northern Ireland is not seasonally adjusted. OECD is the weighted average for 32 OECD countries. Source: OECD calculations based on quarterly national Labour Force Surveys.
Bottomline on the stylised facts Ireland has a massive UNR challenge to overcome NI has not But both parts of the island share some common LM challenges: High long-term unemployment High youth UNR 13
Part II How have OECD countries responded to the crisis on the labour market policy front?
Resources available for LM policies differ across OECD countries Passive and active labour market programmes (expenditures as a % of GDP) in OECD countries, 2009 % 3.5 3 2.5 OECD Minimum 2 1.5 1 0.5 Ireland United Kingdom Maximum 0 Total passive measures Unemployment benefits Early retirement Total active measures PES and administration Training Employment incentives Direct job creation Integration of disabled Passive measures Active measures OECD is the unweighted average for 32 OECD countries. Minimum value calculated excluding Mexico. Employment incentives corresponds to the sum of expenditures for employment incentives, job rotation and job sharing, and start up incentives. Source: OECD Labour Market Programmes Database.
Part III SOME KEY CHALLENGES FACING LABOUR MARKET POLICIES IN BOTH PARTS OF THE ISLAND
THE NEED TO ADAPT ACTIVATION POLICIES TO THE JOBS CRISIS/EMERGING RECOVERY Over the past decade, major efforts made in many OECD countries to implement activation policies to get jobseekers off benefits and into work. Where they were well-designed and implemented effectively, they worked (e.g. UK, Neth, GER). But the jobs crisis presents important threats to activation strategies: - Risk of reduced intensity of interventions in the unemployment spell (less job-search controls; fewer in-depth interviews; less action plan follow-up etc.) as PES resources do not keep step with rising UN inflows and stocks - Vacancy flows decline, resulting in a lower number of direct referrals to jobs 17
THE NEED TO ADAPT ACTIVATION POLICIES (Cont.) Overriding goal: prevent job losers from becoming disconnected from the labour market - Core element of activation regimes and mutual obligation principle should not be allowed to lapse or be overly diluted - For those at risk of LTU, re-employment services need to be adapted to specific conditions of slack LM - Shift somewhat from a work-first to a train-first approach (OECD evidence suggests that the benefits to investing in training programmes for the unemployed rise in a deep recession) - Training for the unemployed should remedy basic skill deficiencies and have a strong workplace component 18
CHALLENGES FACING IRELAND, NI ON THE ACTIVATION FRONT OECD (2009) showed that the intensity of activation in Ireland was relatively weak prior to the crisis; The FAS debacle was a disaster. Recent creation of the National Employment and Entitlements Service (NEES) is a potentially important step in the right direction but a long hard road lies ahead High LTU share in NI suggests that activation is not very effective there either It has a relatively high B/U ratio, well above UK average NI has not opted for the new Work Programme model of sub-contracting with private employment service providers like rest of UK in order to improve its activation record 19
A fundamental redesign of the apprenticeship system could be inspired 20 by the good practices in Australia and Switzerland CHALLENGES FACING IRELAND, NI ON THE VET FRONT Main burden of rising unemployment has fallen on youth and the lowskilled (many of whom have weak literacy and numeracy skills). While the weak labour market is encouraging many youth to stay on longer in education and training, this poses a huge challenge to our VET system to cope with rapidly rising demand and maintain/improve quality. Need a fundamental rethink of the apprenticeship system in both parts of the island: Too narrow in terms of occupations (e.g. dominant focus on construction, few services) Too few women apprentices Inappropriate sharing of the costs between apprentices, firms and the public purse.
CHALLENGES FACING IRELAND, NI ON THE VET FRONT (Cont.) Need to expand the role of on-the-job training in many VET programmes. Much greater emphasis needs to be put into remedying basic skills deficiencies among working-age adults. This will require much more systematic screening of potential clients for potential literacy and numeracy training For those diagnosed with insufficient literacy/numeracy skills, basic skills support will need to be an integral part of their VET courses. 21
Concluding remarks Governments are intervening actively to minimise the scale of the jobs crisis Some have been more successful to date than others With the recovery stalling, governments must not reduce their efforts to tackle high and persistent UNR and some countries may have to do more Ireland faces a massive challenge to cut high and persistent UNR and lower youth UNR; NI s challenges are to cut LTU and high youth UNR The crisis is an opportunity to radically rethink its LM and training policies and institutions in order to promote more and better jobs.
23 FURTHER READING
24 FURTHER READING (Cont.)