Data Digest: Florida December 2013
The overall economic performance for Florida and the United States has been improving since the end of 2010. As of August this year, Florida has been improving at a faster clip than the nation. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = 100 120 Coincident Economic Indicator 115 110 105 100 95 United States Florida 90 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2
Florida s total employment increased by 44,600 jobs in October. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 8,500 Florida Payroll Employment 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3
Overall, the state has added back more than half of the jobs lost during the downturn. Industries such as leisure and hospitality, education and health care, and retail trade have added back more than all the jobs lost during the downturn. Government sectors continue to show weak employment growth. Local government Federal & state government Other services Leisure & hospitality Education & healthcare Business services Financial services Information Transport/Warehousing/Utilities Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Total Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Florida Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present -49.7-24.5-20.0-16.0-60 -50-40 -30-20 -10 0 10 20-14.5-14.2-12.1-11.3-10.6-11.4-7.0-7.6-5.9-0.3 0.2 0.4 3.6 3.1 3.1 2.9 7.0 6.7 8.9 8.8 13.3 12.1 12.3 14.2 Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries; in this instance trough to present is the percent change from January 2007 to present. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 4
3-month average annualized percent change Employment momentum expanded for many of the sectors in October; however, local government momentum continues to contract. About Employment Momentum 18 Improving Employment Momentum by Industry: Florida Construction Expanding 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 Federal and state government Manufacturing Wholesale trade Other services Financial services Education and health care Transport/ Warehouse/ Utilities Business services Leisure and Information hospitality Retail trade -4 Local -6 Contracting government Slipping -4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5
Job losses in all of the state s metro areas were significant during the economic downturn, but all have shown gains since their trough. With the exception of Sarasota, Panama City, Ocala, Melbourne, Lakeland, and Daytona, all other metro areas have added back over half of the jobs lost during the downturn. W. Palm Beach Tampa-St. Pete Tallahassee Vero Beach Sarasota Punta Gorda St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce Pensacola Panama City Orlando Ocala Naples Miami-Ft.L'dale Melbourne Lakeland Jacksonville Gainesville Ft. Myers Daytona Florida Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Florida -18.2-16.7-16.8-15.1-13.9-12.2-12.6-11.2-12.2-10.6-11.6-11.4-9.5-10.2-9.7-10.3-9.3-9.2-8.1-6.5-25 -20-15 -10-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas; in this instance trough to present is the percent change from January 2007 to present. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 1.0 2.9 2.8 3.4 5.5 5.8 6.1 5.6 6.8 6.4 7.1 7.2 6.9 6.7 9.0 8.7 8.4 9.0 11.1 Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present 17.9 6
3-month average annualized percent change Employment momentum for most of the large metro areas in Florida remained largely unchanged from August. Momentum expanded for several of the smaller metro areas, most notably Naples, St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, Vero Beach, Punta Gorda, and Sarasota. Momentum for About Employment Momentum the Orlando area softened. Daytona s momentum continues to slip. 20 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Florida Vero Beach Expanding 15 St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce Naples 10 5 Sarasota Miami-Ft. Lauderdale Melbourne West Palm Beach Tallahassee Orlando Punta Gorda Lakeland Tampa-St. Pete 0 Panama City Pensacola Jacksonville Daytona Ft. Myers Gainesville Ocala -5-10 Contracting Slipping -6-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7
3-month average percent change, annualized Since August 2010, Florida s employment momentum has been expanding. Florida experienced a significant increase in momentum in October. About Employment Momentum Track 4 Improving Employment Momentum Track: Florida January 2007 Expanding 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 Contracting Slipping -8-6 -4-2 0 2 4 Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8
Florida s unemployment rate fell to 6.7 in October from 6.8 in September; the nation s rate increased to 7.3 from 7.2. Florida s rate and all metro area rates are lower than they were a year ago. Percent of labor force 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Florida United States Unemployment Rates Unemployment Rates Current Year Ago Jan 2007 United States 7.3 7.9 4.6 Florida 6.7 8.2 3.5 Ft. Myers 6.5 8.4 3.4 Daytona 6.5 8.2 3.8 Gainesville 4.8 6.0 2.8 Jacksonville 6.0 7.6 3.6 Lakeland 7.5 9.2 3.9 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale 7.0 8.2 3.5 Naples 6.4 8.5 3.1 Ocala 7.3 9.1 4.0 Orlando 6.0 7.8 3.4 Melbourne 7.0 8.6 3.9 Panama City 6.0 7.7 4.0 Pensacola 5.9 7.4 3.5 Punta Gorda 6.6 8.4 3.9 Sarasota 6.5 8.2 3.6 Vero Beach 8.0 10.3 4.5 Tallahassee 5.4 6.7 3.0 Tampa-St. Pete 6.4 8.2 3.8 3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9
Initial claims for unemployment insurance have been steadily trending downward since their peak in early 2009. However, recent data show an increase in claims. Percent of labor force 4-week moving average 30,000 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Florida through November 23, 2013 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Initial claims averaged just over 10,000 during 2004 2006. 5,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 10
Florida s sales tax revenues slightly decreased from September to October while consumer confidence fell sharply during the same time period. 1966 = 100 100 Florida Sales Tax Revenue and Consumer Confidence Year-to-year change, 3-month moving average 20 95 15 90 85 80 Florida Consumer Confidence (left scale) Florida Sales Tax Revenue (right scale) 10 5 75 0 70 65 60 Sales tax revenues have been helped by healthy activity in the leisure and hospitality sector. International visitors continue to play an important role in boosting tourism spending. -5-10 55 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research Center, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta -15 11
The Southeast Purchasing Managers Index, which measures regional manufacturing activity, expanded to 50.4 in October. However, Florida s component has remained relatively flat since August at 59.5. 75 Southeast Purchasing Managers Index 65 55 45 35 The Florida component of the SE PMI was 59.5 in October. 25 15 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometric Center 12
Home prices in Florida declined substantially over the past five years. From 2009 to late 2011, prices began to stabilize. Since the beginning of 2012, home prices have improved for Miami and Tampa. All metro areas with the exception of Panama City have shown improvements in home prices over the past year. Jan 2000 = 100 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 Miami Tampa S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index through September 2013 Composite 20 FHFA House Price Index: Q3 2013 1-yr % change 5-yr % change 10-yr % change USA 4.5-6.4 14.8 Florida 8.4-18.2 6.9 Ft. Myers 11.6-5.8-2.1 Daytona 6.3-24.1-2.1 Ft. Lauderdale 10.4-12.2 8.5 Gainesville 1.9-24.4 11.8 Jacksonville 6.0-21.7 8.5 Lakeland 5.6-30.2 2.1 Miami 12.6-17.2 17.4 Naples 8.3-14.3 1.1 Ocala 3.6-31.9-2.2 Orlando 10.6-25.0 4.5 Melbourne 6.6-21.0-2.6 Panama City -0.3-24.2 9.6 Pensacola 4.2-12.9 15.6 St. Lucie-Fort Pierce 9.0-17.2-9.7 Punta Gorda 12.1-13.7-5.4 Tallahassee 3.7-20.8 12.7 Tampa-St. Pete 8.4-17.5 7.1 Vero Beach 8.3-20.0-1.8 West Palm Beach 13.0-12.2 7.9 75 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: S&P, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 13
The number of new home construction permits issued in Florida and the United States has been slowly increasing since mid-2009. 200,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits 30,000 180,000 160,000 25,000 140,000 120,000 20,000 100,000 15,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 United States (left scale) Florida (right scale) 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 14
Sales growth in October for Florida homebuilders and Realtors declined significantly from a year ago, according to the latest Atlanta Fed Real Estate Poll. About the Real Estate Contact Poll 1.0 FRB Atlanta Real Estate Contact Poll: Florida Current Home Sales vs. Year-ago Levels 0.8 0.6 0.4 Realtors Homebuilders 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 15
Office vacancy rates declined in Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, and Miami; rates rose in Fort Lauderdale during the second quarter of the year. The United States experienced a slight decrease in vacancy rates overall. Percent 24 Office Vacancy Rate Q2 2013 United States Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 16
Industrial availability rates rose slightly in Jacksonville, Tampa, and Fort Lauderdale during the second quarter of the year. During the same period, rates declined in Orlando and Miami. The nation s rate declined as well. Percent 24 22 Industrial Availability Rate Q2 2013 United States Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Note: There was a break in the series for Fort Lauderdale and Miami from Q2 2006 through Q3 2007. Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 17
For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at www.frbatlanta.org/rein/learn/map/learn_members.cfm 18