A Study of Factors Impacting Resiliency Place cover image here Brian Lewandowski Associate Director, Business Research Division June 13, 2017
Project Team Colorado Research Team: Brian Lewandowski Richard Wobbekind University of Colorado Leeds School of Business Business Research Division Colorado Office of Economic Development and International Trade The following organizations were instrumental in the support of this analysis: Anschutz Foundation, El Pomar Foundation, Gates Family Foundation, and Telluride Foundation.
National Employment Thousands, Month-over- Month 500 300 100-100 -300-500 -700 Recession 8 Months Recession 18 Months -900 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, Moody s Analytics, and the BRD.
Employment Recovery 10-Year Growth, April 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
Employment Recovery 1-Year Growth, April 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).
Employment Growth Alabama Year-over-Year Change Year-over-Year Growth (2016) 73% of rural counties 87% of urban counties 14 still in decline Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
Rural Alabama Covered Employment Jobs 450,000 400,000 Employment up 51 consecutive months. 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.
Rural Alabama Covered Wages Annual (4Q Rolling) $ Millions $14,000 $12,000 Year-over-Year +2.6% +330 M $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Q4 2001 Q2 2003 Q4 2004 Q2 2006 Q4 2007 Q2 2009 Q4 2010 Q2 2012 Q4 2013 Q2 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.
Alabama Average Wages Annual Rate (4Q) Average Wage (Dollars) $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 Urban $46,500 Rural $37,400 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 2001 2003 2004 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.
Resiliency Project: Data and Economic Metrics
Nonmetro County Population Growth Average Annual Growth, 1990 2015 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Gray shading represents metropolitan counties.
Nonmetro County Employment Growth Average Annual Growth, 1990 2015 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Gray shading represents metropolitan counties.
Total Employment Indexed Growth, 1969-2015 Indexed, 1969=100 220 U.S. Urban 200 180 160 140 120 Recessions Nation Alabama Urban U.S. Rural Alabama Rural 100 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Alabama Employment Growth Rural v. Urban YoY Percent Change 6% 4% 2% Urban 0% -2% Rural -4% -6% Urban outperformed rural 83% of years 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Total Employment Rural Alabama Counties Employment 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 25% Proprietor Employment vs. 21% for the state 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Employment Growth and Assets Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, COGCC, Energy Information Administration, Colorado Department of Transportation, Colorado Department of Higher Education, Colorado Ski Country USA.
Percentage of Population over age 25 with HS Diploma or Equivalent Percentage of Population over age 25 with Less than HS Diploma Education and Employment Growth Colorado Rural Counties 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% -1% 1% 3% 5% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% High School Diploma Ave. Annual Employment Growth, 1990-2015 Less than High School Diploma 0% -1% 1% 3% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth, 1990-2015 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Percentage of Population over age 25 with Bachelor's Degree or Higher Percentage of Population over age 25 with Graduate Degree 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% Bachelor s Degree or Higher -1% 1% 3% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth, 1990-2015 Graduate Degree 0% -1% 1% 3% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth, 1990-2015
Employment and Prime Working Age Pop Colorado Rural Counties 5% 4% Average Annual Employment Growth 3% 2% 1% 0% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% -1% Prime Working Age Population Share Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Share of Value Added Colorado Total Employment Growth and Agriculture 5% Average Annual Employment Growth, 1990-2014 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Agriculture Share of Value Added, 2014 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IMPLAN.
Share of Value Added Colorado Total Employment Growth and Private Services 5% Average Annual Employment Growth, 1990-2014 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Private Services Share of Value Added, 2014 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IMPLAN.
Focus Groups Helping Resiliency Demographics Industry diversity Strong leadership Education and healthcare Transportation access Quality of life Broadband Leadership Inhibitors Adequate, affordable housing Lack of available labor Youth and family retention Childcare
Alabama Population Total by Age Cohort Percent of Population 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Rural Urban 0% 0-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year estimates.
Population Rural Alabama, 1970-2015 Population Total 1,200,000 1,150,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 950,000 900,000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Colorado Demography Office. Includes Baca, Bent, Crowley, Kiowa, Otero, and Prowers counties.
Herfindahl-Hirschman Index By State 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Alaska Hawaii Nevada New Mexico West Virginia Mississippi Virginia Louisiana Wyoming Maryland South Carolina Alabama Delaware Indiana Maine Vermont Wisconsin North Carolina South Dakota Arkansas Kentucky Michigan New Hampshire Oklahoma Massachusetts Montana Rhode Island Washington Ohio Kansas Iowa Connecticut Arizona New York Idaho Florida Pennsylvania New Jersey Tennessee Missouri North Dakota Georgia Minnesota Nebraska Oregon Colorado Illinois Utah California Texas Source: Calculations based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.