Consulting Retirement Funding Stabilization and PBGC Premium Increases Impact on Plan Sponsors and Participants July 2012
On June 29, 2012, the House and Senate passed H.R. 4348, the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21 st Century Act (MAP-21), which includes both pension funding stabilization provisions and PBGC premium increases. The President signed MAP-21 into law on July 6, 2012. This document provides an overview of MAP-21 s pension-related provisions and an analysis of how they will impact plan sponsors and participants. MAP-21 Overview The funding stabilization provisions in MAP-21 will provide a near-term reduction in minimum funding requirements for single employer defined benefit plans in response to the current, historically low interest rate environment. The law does not reduce contribution requirements over the long term. In fact, total contributions may actually be higher over the long term if the economy does not improve for a prolonged period. The purpose of the change is to delay near-term funding requirements in the hope that financial markets will rebound and interest rates will increase over the next few years, thereby reducing the need for larger contributions in the future. In addition to the funding stabilization provisions, MAP-21 will also significantly increase PBGC premiums over the next several years. Pension Funding Stabilization Provisions Corridor for 24-Month Average Segment Rates In 2012 and beyond, MAP-21 establishes a corridor for the 24-month average segment rates that are used for pension funding purposes. The corridor is based on a 25-year average of the segment rates. Under current financial market conditions, the corridor is expected to increase funding interest rates for the next several years, producing lower minimum required contributions in those years. This change does not apply to plans using the full yield curve rather than segment rates. Corridor Applies for Many but Not All Purposes The MAP-21 interest rate corridor will apply for determining minimum required contributions and benefit restrictions, but not for determining PBGC variable rate premiums, lump sum distributions, ERISA section 4010 reporting, maximum deductible contributions, or Internal Revenue Code (Code) section 420 transfers of excess pension assets to retiree health and life accounts. Participant Disclosure of Funding Stabilization Impacts is Required New disclosures on the impact of funding stabilization will be added to the annual participant funding notice for 2012 2014. Code Section 420 Retiree Health Transfers are Extended The expiration period for Code section 420 transfers of excess pension assets to retiree health accounts is extended from December 31, 2013 to December 31, 2021. In addition, transfers are permitted to be made to applicable retiree life insurance accounts. Anticipated Impact compared to prior law, near-term cash contribution requirements could decrease by up to 30% or more through 2015. In following years, cash contribution requirements are anticipated to be higher than under prior law assuming flat or rising interest rate scenarios. Aon Hewitt 1
PBGC Premium Provisions Flat-Rate Premiums The single-employer flat-rate PBGC premium will increase from $35 per participant in 2012 to $42 per participant in 2013 and $49 per participant in 2014, and be indexed for inflation thereafter. Variable-Rate Premiums The variable-rate PBGC premium will increase from $9 per $1,000 of unfunded vested benefits (UVB) to at least $13 per $1,000 of UVB in 2014 and at least $18 per $1,000 of UVB in 2015. The premium rate will also be indexed for inflation, resulting in even further increases. A premium rate that is determined as a dollar amount per $1,000 of UVB is effectively indexed to UVB, so the indexation of the premium rate could be viewed as a double-indexation of premiums. Changes to PBGC Operations Additional changes will be made to the operations of the PBGC, but the PBGC is not given the authority to increase premiums on its own. Anticipated Impact In the aggregate, these changes are expected to increase PBGC premiums by as much as 100% over the next ten years. The largest percentage increases will be for those employers who take advantage of the reduction in near-term funding requirements under the new law. Aon Hewitt 2
Impact of MAP-21 on Sponsors and Participants With the above as background, the following provides an analysis of the impact of MAP-21 on plan sponsors and participants. Impact on Funding Interest Rates Most plan sponsors currently calculate liabilities for pension funding purposes using three segment rates, which represent a 24-month average of interest rates. MAP-21 introduces a corridor around the 24-month average segment rates, so that each segment rate must be within a certain percentage of a 25-year average of the segment rates. The percentage starts at 10% in 2012, and gradually increases to 30% by 2016. This corridor is expected to increase funding interest rates for the next several years compared to prior law. If market interest rates remain at current levels, the MAP-21 funding interest rates are expected to decline over time and become very close to the funding interest rates under prior law by 2017 or 2018. If market interest rates decline, MAP-21 is expected to continue producing higher funding interest rates than prior law for a more extended period. If market interest rates increase, MAP-21 is expected to produce the same funding interest rates as prior law unless the increase in interest rates is significant (e.g., to over 7%). In the event of such a significant increase, MAP-21 would be expected to produce lower funding interest rates than prior law. The scenarios below provide an estimate of what future funding interest rates might be under MAP-21. As noted below, if interest rates remain at current levels, the effective interest rate in the short-term could increase by approximately 1% or more, producing a Funding Target liability reduction of 10 15% for most plan sponsors. IRS guidance will be needed to determine the precise impact for a given plan sponsor. Flat Interest Rate Scenario Interest Rates Remain at May 2012 Levels 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Corridor for New Interest Rates (based on a 25-year average of interest rates) New Law Interest Rates (must be within the corridor) Prior Law Interest Rates Aon Hewitt 3
Falling Interest Rate Scenario Interest Rates Decrease by 1% and Do Not Recover 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Corridor for New Interest Rates (based on a 25-year average of interest rates) New Law Interest Rates (must be within the corridor) Prior Law Interest Rates Rising Interest Rate Scenario Interest Rates Increase by 1% in 2015 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Corridor for New Interest Rates (based on a 25-year average of interest rates) New Law Interest Rates (must be within the corridor) Prior Law Interest Rates Aon Hewitt 4
Impact on Cash Contribution Requirements The following case study shows the projected cash contribution requirements under MAP-21 and prior law for a sample plan that is 80% funded, with $100 million in liability, $80 million in assets, and approximately 2,000 participants. If interest rates remain at current levels and asset returns are within a typical expected range, cash contribution requirements are expected to decrease compared to prior law through 2015. In 2016 and beyond, cash contribution requirements are expected to increase compared to prior law. These examples assume that PBGC premiums are paid from plan assets, so that an increase in premiums also results in an increase in contributions. For plan sponsors who take advantage of the opportunity for reduced near-term contributions, total contributions over the next ten years are projected to be slightly higher than under prior law. As discussed further under Additional Considerations for Pension Financial Management, plan sponsors will need to carefully consider whether to take advantage of this opportunity for reduced near-term contributions, continue to budget for contributions based on prior law, or follow other strategic funding policies. Projected Funding Requirements for Sample 80% Funded Plan $ Millions $12 $10 $8 Prior Law; Funding the Minimum New Law; Funding the Minimum $6 $4 $2 $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 PBGC Premiums Total of 2012-2021 Contributions for Employee Benefits 7% PV 1 of Total 2012-2021 Contributions Total Prior Law; Funding the Minimum $1.8 $51.1 $52.9 $41.2 New Law; Funding the Minimum $3.3 $54.3 $57.6 $41.9 1 Present value. Aon Hewitt 5
Impact on PBGC Premiums The impact of the increase in PBGC premiums will vary based on a plan s size and funded status, and whether the plan sponsor takes advantage of the opportunity for reduced near-term contributions based on the MAP-21 interest rates. PBGC premiums will continue to be calculated using prior law interest rates, so reduced contributions will result in higher unfunded liabilities just when a higher premium rate is assessed on those unfunded liabilities. The example below shows the impact on PBGC premiums for the same sample plan as above 80% funded, with $100 million in liability, $80 million in assets, and approximately 2,000 participants. The example assumes that the plan sponsor reduces their cash contributions to the minimum required amount under MAP-21. Plan sponsors will need to consider whether the advantages of potential delayed plan funding outweigh the disadvantages of increased PBGC premium requirements. Projected PBGC Premiums for Sample 80% Funded Plan $ Thousands $800 $600 Voluntarily Reduce Funding Level to New Minimum Required Law Change Prior Law $400 $200 $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total PBGC Premiums for 2012 2021 Under Prior Law $ 1,784 Premium Increase Due to MAP-21 Premium Provisions Premium Increase Due to Deferred Funding Under MAP-21 Total PBGC Premiums for 2012 2021 Under MAP-21 732 (41% increase) 777 (44% increase) $ 3,293 (85% increase) Aon Hewitt 6
Additional Considerations for Pension Financial Management PBGC Premium Increases and Impact on Fully Loaded Plan Cost As noted above, the increase in PBGC premiums means that maintaining a pension plan will become more expensive. The impact may be relatively small in percentage terms for well-funded plans. For example, for a fully-funded plan with 2,000 participants and $100 million in assets and liabilities, the flatrate premium would be only 0.07% of plan assets. The increase in the flat-rate premium under MAP-21 would raise this to about 0.10% of assets, still fairly low compared to typical investment management or administrative fees. However, some poorly-funded plans may experience a much greater impact from the increase in premiums. For example, if the sample plan mentioned here were only 70% funded, its annual premiums could increase to about 0.64% of assets under MAP-21 from about 0.34% of assets under prior law nearly a doubling of premiums. The impact could be even greater if the plan is in at-risk status. The chart below shows the impact of the PBGC premium increases on the fully loaded cost of providing pension benefits. As the chart shows, the impact is relatively small in comparison to the overall cost of running a plan, but plans currently in a deficit position will see substantially higher premiums until those deficits begin to shrink. Fully-Loaded Pension Obligation Pre- and Post-MAP-21 $ Millions $115 100% Funded Plan 70% Funded Plan $110 Present value of future $0.9 $1.2 PBGC premiums $2.0 $2.9 $105 $100 $8.7 $8.7 $8.7 $8.7 Present value of future,investment, admin actuarial, & legal costs $95 $90 $100.0 $100.0 Benefit obligation including future mortality $100.0 $100.0 improvements, credit losses, & antiselection $85 Before MAP-21 After MAP-21 Before MAP-21 After MAP-21 Aon Hewitt 7
By 2015, PBGC premiums could become an underfunded plan s largest single expense, exceeding even investment management fees. As these plans become better funded over time, the variable rate premium will decline, but the increased flat-rate premium will remain. The resulting increase in the fully-loaded cost of providing pension benefits may lead some plan sponsors to consider alternatives to reduce the size of their plans. MAP-21 is likely to increase interest in settlement strategies such as broad-based lump sum offerings to inactive participants, annuity purchases, and plan terminations. Such increased interest in settlement strategies among plan sponsors who are financially able to fund these settlements could potentially increase risk to the PBGC by lowering its premium base and taking financially strong plan sponsors out of the defined benefit system. Funding Strategy While the higher funding interest rates under MAP-21 will create an opportunity for plan sponsors to delay cash contributions, the increase in variable-rate premiums will create a strong incentive for sponsors of underfunded plans to continue making their planned contributions, or even increase them. Accelerating contributions to underfunded plans will result in ongoing reductions to PBGC premiums, and the greater the current level of underfunding, the greater the financial benefit from accelerated contributions. Investment Strategy Plan sponsors will also need to consider how (or whether) MAP-21 will impact plan investment strategy. On one hand, the MAP-21 interest rate corridor creates a short-term buffer against recent and future decreases in interest rates, easing concerns about required contributions over the next several years. Some plan sponsors may take advantage of this to maintain higher-risk investment strategies, since the short-term consequences of interest rate risk have been delayed. On the other hand, the higher PBGC variable-rate premium increases the cost of large pension deficits, making it even more desirable to avoid the increases in pension deficits that often accompany declines in interest rates. For some plan sponsors, this may increase the benefit of de-risking their plans via liabilitymatching strategies. These sponsors may choose to accelerate funding and increase their allocations to liability-matching bonds. Many plan sponsors have adopted dynamic investment policies that increase allocations to liabilitymatching bonds as a plan s funded status improves. For sponsors using this glidepath approach, the lower contributions permitted under MAP-21 would actually slow progress along the glidepath. This could result in increased investment risk for plans taking advantage of MAP-21 s funding relief. However, some sponsors who have adopted glidepaths may be more focused on pension risk management than others, and may be less inclined to take advantage of MAP-21 s lessened contribution requirements. Some sponsors with dynamic investment policies are following a hedge path strategy, with a greater allocation towards shorter-duration bonds in the current low interest rate environment. For these sponsors, the MAP-21 interest rate corridor has extended the time horizon over which these plans can benefit from following this approach. Aon Hewitt 8
Participant Communications and Administration Impact on Benefit Restrictions Unless a plan sponsor makes an election to delay the application of the MAP-21 interest rates for benefit restriction purposes (see Timing and Suggested Next Steps for Plan Sponsors below), the improved plan funded status that results from the use of those rates may cause the lifting of benefit restrictions that had been previously communicated to participants for 2012. Plan sponsors will need to review the status of any existing restrictions and any restrictions that may have been expected to go into effect in the future. Participants may need to be notified of the removal of restrictions on benefit accruals and accelerated benefit distributions (such as lump sums), and administrative systems may need to be modified to administer a sponsor s plans accordingly. Plan sponsors should also review the potential impact on any 2012 plan amendments or unpredictable contingent events that were unable to take effect due to a plan s funded status before the enactment of MAP-21. Required Disclosures in Annual Funding Notice Disclosures regarding the effect of funding stabilization will also need to be added to the required annual funding notices for 2012 though 2014 if the impact is at least a 5% reduction in liability and the unfunded liability before reflecting the MAP-21 interest rates is more than $500,000. An exception applies for small employers (with defined benefit plans covering less than 50 participants in total). These disclosures must include a statement that, as a result of MAP-21, the plan sponsor may contribute less money to the plan when interest rates are at historical lows. A table must also be included showing the resulting impact on the funding target attainment percentage, funding shortfall, and minimum required contribution. Plan sponsors may want to include additional discussion in the annual funding notice to address participants potential concerns about the funding of the plan. Aon Hewitt 9
Timing and Suggested Next Steps for Plan Sponsors The MAP-21 interest rate provisions apply automatically to plans using segment rates for funding calculations beginning in 2012. However, certain elections affecting the application of the interest rate provisions are available to plan sponsors. If a plan Has already applied benefit restrictions in 2012 after a 2012 AFTAP certification (including a range certification) Then the plan sponsor may elect to Delay the interest rate provisions until 2013 for benefit restriction purposes This election should be considered when The AFTAP would increase enough to retroactively relax 2012 benefit restrictions, which could cause plan qualification issues The election must be made by No date is specified, but pending IRS guidance it may be advisable to elect by the last day for certifying an AFTAP (October 1 for calendar year plans) Has already determined 2012 contributions using PPA segment rates Delay the interest rate provisions until 2013 for all purposes (including funding and benefit restrictions) The plan sponsor does not wish to reduce 2012 contributions and is not concerned about adding to the prefunding balance The due date of the 2012 Form 5500 filing (unless an earlier date for benefit restrictions applies as above) Uses the corporate bond yield curve for funding Switch to the segment rates adjusted under the new law The plan sponsor wishes to take advantage of the reduced contribution requirements One year after the enactment of MAP-21. The plan sponsor may re-elect the corporate bond yield curve in a future year As discussed earlier, plan sponsors should also consider how MAP-21 may impact their employee communications, their funding and investment strategies, and potential pension settlement actions that may be under consideration or become more attractive as a result of MAP-21. Aon Hewitt 10
Contact Information For more information, please contact: Eric Keener Partner and Lead Regulatory Affairs Actuary eric.keener@aonhewitt.com 203.852.1100 John Moore Chief Actuary john.h.moore@aonhewitt.com 303.639.4149 Alan Parikh Associate Partner alan.parikh@aonhewitt.com 847.295.5000 About Aon Hewitt Aon Hewitt is the global leader in human capital consulting and outsourcing solutions. The company partners with organizations to solve their most complex benefits, talent and related financial challenges, and improve business performance. Aon Hewitt designs, implements, communicates and administers a wide range of human capital, retirement, investment management, health care, compensation and talent management strategies. With more than 29,000 professionals in 90 countries, Aon Hewitt makes the world a better place to work for clients and their employees. For more information on Aon Hewitt, please visit www.aonhewitt.com. Copyright Aon 2012 11