Status of the UNFCCC Negotiations: Outcomes of the Bonn Climate Change Talks, March 2009 Deborah Murphy, Associate, Climate Change and Energy
Introduction First round of negotiations leading up to COP 15. Main objective of Bonn talks was to work towards negotiating text. No real surprises or tangible results, but none were expected. Narrowed gaps and made progress to new agreement. Debut of Obama administration on international stage. Some acrimony on final evening of negotiations under AWG-KP over developed country targets.
Recent Climate Change Events Recent climate change events and findings include: Second lowest amount of Arctic sea ice coverage during winter 2008-09. Ice bridge between Antarctic Peninsula and Charcot Island disintegrated April 2009. Garnault review (2008) predicts exceptionally hot summers for Australia to occur every one or two years, making drought conditions virtually permanent. Current Pine Beetle infestation 10 times larger than previous outbreaks.
Mitigation GHG emission reductions are at the heart at the negotiations and take place in both AWG-LCA and AWG-KP. AWG-LCA: a long-term goal for emission reductions as one issue of the shared vision AWG-KP: negotiating the emissions reduction required by Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol in the subsequent commitment period (after 2012)
Mitigation: AWG-LCA Mitigation by developed countries focused on nature and definition of commitments. Mitigation by developing countries. Focus on NAMAs, MRV. Differentiation between developing countries controversial REDD - Convergence on REDD+ mechanism. Sectoral approaches, role of markets, response mechanisms, catalytic role of convention also discussed.
Mitigation: AWG-KP Discussion focused on scale of emission reductions by Annex I in aggregate No agreement reached. Secretariat to compile existing Annex I Party pledges. Approach not received well by developing countries. Desire more principled approach. Flexibility mechanisms Potential expansion of and improvements to market mechanisms LULUCF Canada proposal for assuming zero emissions or removals for cases of carbon saturation in cropland management.
AWG-LCA and AWG-KP Controversial discussion on linkages between AWGs. Developed countries emphasized need to maintain coherency. Some parties indicate unwillingness to negotiate targets in AWG-KP due to lack of US/China involvement. Faced heavy developing country criticism. Concern for spillover into AWG-LCA talks.
Adaptation Framework for adaptation has begun to take shape Discussions focused on matching adaptation support with finance and technology, and capacity building Developing countries want adaptation funding to be new, predictable and additional to ODA; with governance under COP. Developed countries stressed need for mutual accountability, robust governance principles and coherence with other institutions.
Technology Technology and financing discussed as one issue under AWG-LCA. Issues closely linked. Need for a balanced approach to mitigation and adaptation technologies. Discussion of R&D activities and needs. Options on how to address intellectual property rights. Licensing, patent pooling, exclusion from patents, flexibilities in IPR system, exemptions.
Financing No consensus on scale, mobilization, governance or proportion (public-private) of funds. Discussion of various party proposals. Mexican Green Fund. Norway: Carbon credit revenue. South Korea: Crediting NAMAs. Switzerland: Carbon tax of US$2 per tonne. LDCs have called for US$2 billion to finance adaptation plans. China observes that carbon market revenues are just one option and should not replace other responsibilities. Example of softening Chinese rhetoric.
Moving towards Copenhagen Both AWGs plan to meet five more times over 2009: June: Bonn. August: Bonn. September/October: Bangkok. November: TBD. December: Copenhagen. June 1-12 meetings will include 6 th session of AWG-LCA, 8 th Session of AWG-KP, 30 th session of SBTSA and SBI.
Submissions to AWG-LCA Prior to June countries have been asked to submit views on variety of topics to UNFCCC bodies. Excerpts on negotiating text and/or agreed outcome: USA: committed to agreement in Copenhagen based on robust targets and ambitious actions that will be embodied in US domestic law. Canada: All parties to submit GHG reduction or limitation pathways to COP. All parties must submit national inventories of anthropogenic emissions to the COP. Quantified emissions limitation or reduction commitments for 2020. China: Mid-term emission reduction target for developed Parties of 40% below 1990 levels by 2020.
The United States and the negotiations Despite not being able to contribute significantly given lack of time to develop a mandate, US shows tenor of constructive engagement. Standing ovation from NGO community to senior official from State Dept. at briefing held by U.S. Government. New attitude and positive tone. Positive signs from Obama administration (large green stimulus component, domestic cap-and-trade talks). Will still take time to develop international negotiating positions. Bottom up approach likely to be required. Many other countries waiting for U.S. plan to better determine their strategies.
Conclusion Number of issues to be resolved between now and Copenhagen. Will new agreement be a successor to the KP or a new Protocol or treaty? Real risk that final deal may not be reached at COP 15 or that only a framework agreed to with details to be ne
Thank You dmurphy@iisd.ca