Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecast Results and Methods

Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecast Results and Methods By Robert Ruiz, Research Manager and Pamela Zorich, Planner Coordinator

Montgomery County, Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecast Participation Round 1 1976 Round 2 1979 Round 3 1983 Round 3.5-1985 Update Round 4 1987 Round 4.1 1991 Round 5 - January 1994 Round 5.1 - May 1994 Round 5.2 1995 Round 5.3 1996 Round 5.4 1997 Round 6a 1998 Round 6.1 1999 Round 6.2 2000 Round 6.3 2003 Round 6.4 - Never Adopted Round 6.4A 2004 Round 7.0 2005 Round 7.0a 2006 Round 7.1 2008 Round 7.2 2009 Round 7.2A 2009 Round 8.0 2010 Round 8.0a 2011 Round 8.1 2012 Round 8.2 2013 Round 8.3-2014 Round 9.0 2016

Montgomery County, Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecast Participation Maryland: Montgomery County Bowie Charles County College Park Frederick Frederick County Gaithersburg Greenbelt Prince George's County Rockville Takoma Park Virginia: Alexandria Arlington County Fairfax Fairfax County Falls Church Loudoun County Manassas Manassas Park Prince William County District of Columbia

Montgomery County, Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasting Process Regional Econometric Model Projections Employment Population Households Local Forecasts Employment Population Households Reconciliation Regional Forecast Jurisdictional Small Area (TAZ) Source: MWCOG, ROUND 9.0 COOPERATIVE FORECASTS OF FUTURE GROWTH, March 9, 2016.

MONTGOMERY COUNTY Population and Household Cooperative Forecasts Round 9.0

Population and Household Forecasts Montgomery County, Round 9.0 1,500,000 Population 1,300,000 1,100,000 900,000 700,000 Households 500,000 300,000 2010* 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Source: MNCPPC, Montgomery County Planning Department, Research & Special Projects Division. Draft Round 9.0 forecasts are subject to change.

Regional Comparison, Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecast (MWCOG Draft) Population 2015-2045 Fairfax County 1,125.4 281.4 25.0% Montgomery County 1,036.7 232.8 22.5% Prince George's County 899.7 91.4 10.2% District of Columbia 672.2 315.0 46.9% Prince William County 431.8 141.9 32.9% Loudoun County 363.5 130.7 36.0% Frederick County Arlington County 246.5 220.5 97.6 69.0 31.3% 39.6% Charles County 150.8 85.7 56.8% City of Alexandria City of Frederick City of Rockville City Gaithersburg 147.0 70.4 66.3 67.1 51.5 22.7 23.6 21.7 35.1% 32.2% 35.6% 32.4% 2015 Population Absolute Increase 2015-2045 City of Manassas 9.6 22.6% City of Fairfax 3.7 14.8% City of Manassas Park 1.6 11.1% City of Falls Church 4.5 34.4% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 (Thousands) Source: MWCOG, ROUND 9.0 COOPERATIVE FORECASTS OF FUTURE GROWTH, March 9, 2016. Draft Round 9.0 forecasts are subject to change.

Regional Comparison, Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecast (MWCOG Draft) Households 2015-2045 Fairfax County 403.9 144.2 37.2% Montgomery County Prince George's County District of Columbia Prince William County Loudoun County Arlington County Frederick County City of Alexandria Charles County City of Frederick City of Rockville City Gaithersburg City of Manassas City of Fairfax 380.2 314.9 297.1 141.0 62.2 121.1 63.7 103.6 38.2 39.0% 89.5 46.4 54.7% 70.8 32.5 47.7% 53.7 40.9 79.9% 27.3 11.4 44.9% 26.9 12.7 50.2% 24.7 11.7 53.2% 2.9 22.1% 2.1 24.8% 47.6% 60.9% 113.6 66.5 21.9% 145.2 54.4% 2015 Households Absolute Increase 2015-2045 31.8% City of Falls Church 3.0 58.8% City of Manassas Park 0.5 11.7% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 (Thousands) Source: MWCOG, ROUND 9.0 COOPERATIVE FORECASTS OF FUTURE GROWTH, March 9, 2016. Draft Round 9.0 forecasts are subject to change.

Population Forecast Methodology AGE COHORT-COMPONENT MODEL County Cohort Component Model Projections 2025-2030 2020 to 2025 Females NUMBER FEMALES AGE FEMALES SURV RATES AGE SURVIVORS MIGRATION POPULATION INTERVALS (t) IN 2020 2020 INTERVALS (t) 2025 RATES 2025 Add BIRTHS 0-4 34,333 2.35% 35,140 0-4 33,229 0.999089 5-9 33,199-2.18% 32,474 5-9 32,262 0.999495 10-14 32,246 2.98% 33,207 10-14 34,537 0.998988 15-19 34,502-6.87% 32,132 15-19 30,956 0.998128 20-24 30,898-0.69% 30,686 20-24 30,260 0.997476 25-29 30,184 37.48% 41,497 25-29 38,478 0.996775 30-34 38,354 10.93% 42,545 30-34 37,784 0.995631 35-39 37,619 3.43% 38,908 35-39 38,137 0.993624 40-44 37,894 0.15% 37,950 40-44 36,708 0.989902 45-49 36,337-0.05% 36,319 45-49 37,552 0.984393 50-54 36,966-1.90% 36,262 50-54 37,749 0.977735 55-59 36,909-4.00% 35,433 55-59 38,174 0.967934 60-64 36,950-6.07% 34,706 60-64 34,634 0.951412 65-69 32,951-5.25% 31,220 65-69 28,820 0.924681 70-74 26,650-0.70% 26,463 70-74 23,119 0.881485 75-79 20,379 2.95% 20,980 75-79 15,949 0.809356 80-84 12,908 4.10% 13,438 80-84 10,593 0.690046 85+ 12,492 1.41% 12,668 85+ 12,336 0.420138 TOTALS 551,277 572,027 Steps in Age Cohort- Component Model: Age cohorts by sex Apply survival rates Age survivors by 5 years Add births Apply migration rates Forecasts age by sex for next 5 years Repeat for 5-year increments until 2045

Natural Increase, Largest Component of Montgomery s Population Growth Source: 2000-2014 Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census

Historical Birth Trends in Montgomery County SOURCE: Vital Statistics Admin, MD Dept. of Health & Mental Hygiene

Changing Mix of Residents More Dramatic than Growth MONTGOMERY COUNTY POPULATION MIGRATION TRENDS 1990-2014 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program, 1990-2014

Montgomery: Magnet for Foreign Born Foreign born percent of population 342,900 33% 32% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 27% 22% 23% 19% 12% 5% 7% 10% 15% 14% 8% 16% 12% 6% 9% 13% 13% 11% Montgomery County Maryland Washington Region United States Source: 1980-2000 U.S. Census, 2010 & 2014 American Community Survey, 1 year estimate

Changing Mix of Residents More Dramatic than Growth

Thumbprint of the Baby Boomers % of Population Baby Boomers Drive Rise in Age 65+ 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Percent of Population by Age Group 7% 7% 6% 2000 2014 2045 20% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 18% 15% 14% 24% 28% 24% 11% 14% <5 5-19 20-34 35-44 45-64 65+ Age Group Source: U.S. Census, 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey; draft. 18% Draft Round 9.0 forecasts are subject to change.

Household Forecast Methodology HEADSHIP RATES by HOUSEHOLDER AGE 2015-2045 Households: Households are calculated by applying a headship rate to the household population by age. The headship rate is the percent of persons in an age group that are householders. The household forecast uses average headship rates from 2005 to 2014 from the U.S. Census Bureau s American Community Survey. Average Headship Rate 2005-2014 Headship Age rate 15 to 24 years 0.068 25 to 34 years 0.405 35 to 44 years 0.507 45 to 54 years 0.557 55 to 64 years 0.567 65 to 74 years 0.581 75 and over 0.644

Employment Forecast

At-Place Employment Employment Forecasts in Context, Montgomery County 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 723,000 715,100 700,000 600,000 644,789 670,404 657,354 681,500 500,000 400,000 300,000 493,500 A 2010 to 2045 gain of 188,000 jobs or 38% for Round 9.0 200,000 100,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Round 5.2 (1994) Round 6.1 (1999) Round 7.0 (2005) Round 8.0 (2009) Round 8.4 (2014) Round 9.0 (2016)

Transportation Planning Board Area, Employment (in thousands) Employment Forecasts in Context, COG TPB Region 6,000.0 5,561.5 5,290.5 5,000.0 4,754.1 5,047.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 3,927.2 3,001.0 4,137.7 3,149.9 4,453.0 3,345.9 3,565.8 3,770.9 3,953.4 4,130.4 4,285.7 2,000.0 1,000.0 0.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Round 8.4 Round 9.0

Round 9.0 Employment Forecasts by Jurisdiction Employment 2015-2045 District of Columbia Fairfax County Montgomery County Prince George's County Arlington County Loudoun County Prince William County Frederick County City of Alexandria City of Rockville City of Frederick Charles County City Gaithersburg City of Manassas 209.6 164.5 144.6 106.4 106.3 517.8 338.6 69.9 124.4 113.7 78.6% 28.5 47.1 72.6 23.3 32.0% 50.1 11.1 22.2% 46.6 14.9 32.0% 46.4 20.2 43.5% 5.3 20.7% 26.8% 44.3% 798.3 654.1 63.6 18.8% 33.3% 75.6% 247.1 244.6 37.4% 163.7 31.6% 2015 Employment Absolute Increase 2015-2045 31.0% City of Fairfax 5.8 28.0% City of Falls Church 6.6 55.0% City of Manassas Park 0.6 12.5% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Source: MWCOG, ROUND 9.0 COOPERATIVE FORECASTS OF FUTURE GROWTH, March 9, 2016. (Thousands)

Methodology, Montgomery County Step 1: Calculate an employment base for 2010 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) at-place employment data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing, and Regulation s (DLLR) are used for a portion of the 2010 base. These jobs are covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI).

Methodology, Montgomery County Step 1: Calculate an employment base for 2010 Visualization of process to attain total employment:

Methodology, Montgomery County Step 1: Calculate an employment base for 2010 Wage and salary jobs not covered by unemployment insurance: a) Factor of 1.045 applied to covered employment to get total wage and salary jobs (covered + not covered employment). b) 1.045 factor is unique to Montgomery County and was developed by MWCOG using BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data. c) This category of workers includes persons employed by religious institutions, for example. The Self-Employed: a) Factor of 1.06 applied to calculate the number of self-employed persons b) 1.06 factor is unique to Montgomery County and was developed by MWCOG using the Census Bureau s American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files.

Methodology, Montgomery County Step 1: Calculate an employment base for 2010 The non-civilian military employment : a) Among sources, includes Department of Defense s (DOD) Base Structure Report: A Summary of the Real Property Inventory reports that tabulates military personnel by base.

Methodology, Montgomery County Step 2: Forecast Wage and Salary Jobs Covered by UI The forecast of future wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment insurance (UI) is calculated using shift-share analysis a) What is shift-share method: i. The shift-share method assumes that a local employment industry s growth is affected by its own local industry trends, as well as by that industry s historical and expected regional or national dynamics. ii. The shift-share method includes a shift-term that account[s] for [the] differences between local and reference region growth rates that cause an industry s employment to shift into or out of a region (Klosterman, Community Analysis and Planning Techniques, 1990).

Methodology, Montgomery County Step 2: Forecast Wage and Salary Jobs Covered by UI b) What assumptions and inputs were used in the shift-share analysis i. Key assumption is that in the thirty-five year forecast horizon we will have cyclical booms and busts, but that none of these will be as exceptionally prolonged and as deep as the 2007 to 2009 recession. ii. Inputs include employment estimates change by industry at the Montgomery County-level and Transportation Planning Board (TPB) regional-level from 1991 to 2000. i. More recent employment data by industry that included the lead up to, and actual, 2007 to 2009 great recession were not used since this recession was assessed to be an anomaly. ii. Inputs also include TPB regional industry forecasts from IHS Global Insight

Annual Average Wage and Salary Employment (UI Covered) Methodology, Montgomery County 480,000 Step 2: Forecast Wage and Salary Jobs Covered by UI 464,833 460,000 455,343 440,000 420,000 400,000 380,000 366,107 Wage and Salary Employment trends are improving: - Avg. Annual Job Growth 91 to 96: 4,325 jobs - Avg. Annual Job Growth 09 to 14: 2,408 jobs Historical growth: - Avg. Annual Job Growth 83 to 87: 22,600 jobs 360,000 340,000 Recession, 3Q1990 to 1Q1991, 8 months Recession, 1Q2001 to 4Q2001, 8 months Recession, 4Q2007 to 2Q2009, 18 months Payroll Employment (Yearly Avg.) Source: Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing & Regulation. Tabulated by MNCPPC, Montgomery County Planning Department, Research & Special Projects Division.

Methodology, Montgomery County Step 2: Forecast Wage and Salary Jobs Covered by UI c) Wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment outputs:

Methodology, Montgomery County Step 2: Forecast Wage and Salary Jobs Covered by UI c) Wage and salary jobs covered by unemployment outputs: Employment Change by Sector 2015 2045, Montgomery County Professional and Bus. Services Natural Resources and Mining Information State Government + Local Educational & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Financial Activities Trade, Transportation, and Manufacturing Federal Government -5,200 400-10,000 1,400 16,400 14,300 20,400 33,300 29,600 35,400-20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 61,000 Employment Change by Sector 2015 2045, COG / TPB Planning Area Professional & Business Services Construction, Natural Resources, Information State & Local Government Educational & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Financial Activities Transp., Trade, & Utilities Manufacturing-3,488 Federal Government -43,796 91,927 49,022 80,582 82,153 50,178 14,467 8,395 5,915 601,995-100,000 100,000 300,000 500,000 700,000

Methodology, Montgomery County Step 3: Calculate Non UI, Self-Employed, and Military for Future Years Visualization of process to attain total employment:

Methodology, Montgomery County Step 4: Reconciliation with MWCOG s Econometric Model Source: MWCOG Department of Community Planning & Services, Round 8.3 Cooperative Forecasts: Process and Review presentation, January 17, 2014.

At-Place Employment Share of the MWCOG Econometric Model Methodology, Montgomery County Step 4: Reconciliation with MWCOG s Econometric Model Draft and submitted forecast 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 493,500 728,900 681,500 Montgomery County s share of Econometric Model 20.0% 19.0% 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% 16.5% 16.5% 15.0% 16.0% 16.1% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 0 2,010 2,015 2,020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 10.0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Round 9.0 Draft Round 9.0

Allocation

Forecast Allocation of Households, Population, and Employment Allocation of Households, Population, and Employment are done at the Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) level. Planning performs allocations for 321 TAZs Rockville and Gaithersburg perform their own allocations

Forecast Allocation of Households, Population, and Employment Key Assumptions and Elements Considered Households and Population: Assumptions are made on the percent of housing units that are occupied and vacant. Likewise, assumptions are made on the average number of persons per occupied units. All new households are allocated to new housing Employment: Assumptions are made on the percent of office, retail, and industrial space that is occupied and vacant. Not all office jobs allocated to new construction. Some jobs also allocated to existing vacant space. The self-employed are distributed among residential TAZs

Q & A