Appendix. G RTP Revenue Assumptions REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN/SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES STRATEGY

Similar documents
CHAPTER 4 FINANCIAL STRATEGIES: PAYING OUR WAY

APPENDIX I REVENUE PROJECTION AND ASSUMPTIONS

Appendix O. Transportation Financial Background

CHAPTER 5 INVESTMENT PLAN

Proposition 1B and the Strategic Growth Plan

INVESTMENT STRATEGIES

WASATCH FRONT REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN FINANCIAL PLAN. Technical Report 47 May 2007 DAVIS MORGAN SALT LAKE TOOELE WEBER

CHAPTER 9 FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS

Financial Snapshot October 2014

Financial Analysis Working Paper 1 Existing Funding Sources Draft: April 2007

APPENDIX 5 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Financial. Snapshot An appendix to the Citizen s Guide to Transportation Funding in Missouri

MTC OVERVIEW OF SB 1 (BEALL AND FRAZIER)

Technical Memorandum. Finance. Prepared for: Prepared by: In cooperation with: High Street Consulting Group

Contents. Alamo Area Metropolitan Planning Organization. Introduction S. St. Mary s Street San Antonio, Texas 78205

ALL Counties. ALL Districts

CHAPTER 9 FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS

Capital Improvement Projects

Chapter 6. Transportation Planning and Programming. Chapter 6

2035 Long Range Transportation Plan Update

APPENDIX FOR THE METROPOLITAN LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN Forecast of State and Federal Revenues for Statewide and Metropolitan Plans

INVESTING STRATEGICALLY

City Engineers Association of Minnesota Annual Conference January 31, 2013

Financial Forecasting Assumptions for Plan 2040 (DRAFT)

Chapter 5: Cost and Revenues Assumptions

Measure I Strategic Plan, April 1, 2009 Glossary Administrative Committee Advance Expenditure Agreement (AEA) Advance Expenditure Process

Regional Connector Transit Corridor Draft Environmental Impact Statement/ Draft Environmental Impact Report APPENDIX HH FINANCIAL ANALYSIS REPORT

Chapter 8. Financial Plan

Analysis of the Alameda County Transportation Expenditure Plan Prepared by Alameda County Transportation Commission

Chapter 9 Financial Considerations. 9.1 Introduction

FEDERAL FISCAL YEAR TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM

AGENDA CITIZEN S TRANSPORTATION ADVISORY COMMITTEE/ SOCIAL SERVICES TRANSPORTATION ADVISORY COUNCIL (CTAC/SSTAC)

Financial Capacity Analysis

PENNSYLVANIA S 2017 TRANSPORTATION PROGRAM FINANCIAL GUIDANCE

APPENDIX B TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM #2 TRANSPORTATION FUNDING

APPENDIX B HIGH PRIORITY INVESTMENT PROGRAM (HPP) ( )

Chapter 3: Regional Transportation Finance

Regional Transportation Plan 2040

FINANCIAL ASSUMPTIONS REPORT

Technical Appendix. FDOT 2040 Revenue Forecast

Appendix J: MTP Checklist. Introduction

Technical Report No. 4. Revenue and Costs

Honolulu High-Capacity Transit Corridor Project Alternatives Analysis

California MAP-21 Transit Working Group: MAP-21 Questions for FTA

JULY 17, 2018 FINAL AGENDA SENIOR CITIZEN AND DISABLED RESIDENT TRANSPORTATION ADVISORY COMMITTEE REPORT (NEXT SCHEDULED REPORT DECEMBER 2018)

FEDERAL FISCAL YEARS TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM. REVISION #12 Amendment 6/3/16 DRAFT. July 2016

GLOSSARY. At-Grade Crossing: Intersection of two roadways or a highway and a railroad at the same grade.

ACTION ELEMENT CONCLUSIONS

7.0 Financially Feasible Plan

SAN JOAQUIN REGIONAL RAIL COMMISSION ANNUAL FINANCIAL REPORT

Alameda CTC Mass Transit Program Implementation Guidelines

STAFF REPORT. MEETING DATE: August 19, 2010 AGENDA ITEM: 6B

SKATS FY 2018-FY 2023

STAFF REPORT Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS) Scenario Performance Update for Board Direction

FY TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM

NASHVILLE AREA MPO TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM FY

Terre Haute Seelyville West Terre Haute Vigo County. Brazil Harmony Knightsville Clay County

TECHNICAL PLANNING COMMITTEE AGENDA 3/18/2015; ITEM II.B. Amendment Number Four to the FY Transportation Improvement Program

FY TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM

Regional Transportation Plan Checklist (Revised February 2010)

Transportation Trust Fund Overview

Chapter 4: Regional Transportation Finance

January 26, 2010 File Number

QUALITY TRANSPORTATION SUMMARY

LEGEND Bridges Parks Fire Stations Project Locations Libraries Schools A

TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM REVISION 19 F E D E R A L F I S C A L Y E A R S Expedited Administrative Modifications

Estimated Financial Summary for the Highway and Bridge Construction Schedule

THE. ATLANTA REGION S Transit Programs Of Projects

MEASURE L 2018 STRATEGIC PLAN

Chapter 15. Transportation Improvements Financing. Ohio Kentucky Indiana Regional Council of Governments Regional Transportation Plan

SAN JOAQUIN COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS

FEDERAL FISCAL YEAR TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM

Financial Resources Report BAY COUNTY DIRECTION 2035 SHAPING OUR FUTURE LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN. Prepared for

8.0 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Transportation Budget Trends

IMPERIAL COUNTY TRANSPORTATION COMMISSION

Transportation Improvement Program and Incentives for Local Planning

IMPERIAL COUNTY TRANSPORTATION COMMISSION

AD HOC Committee for Transit To Start Immediately After Management and Finance Committee

Transportation Funding

Analysis of Regional Transportation Spending

Transportation Package HB 2017

RIDOA STATEWIDE PLANNING PROGRAM Transportation Planning

NCDOT Funding Overview

Fiscal Year (FY) Overall Work Plan (OWP) and Budget Workshop AGENDA

2040 Long Range Transportation Plan. Financial Summary

HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY MPO 2035 LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN

CHAPTER 16: FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

MODULE 1: FUNDING TRANSIT IN TEXAS MODULE 1 1

Ballot Measure Description

Bringing Virginia s Transportation Funding Up to Speed. August 25, 2014 John W. Lawson Chief Financial Officer

TEX Rail Fort Worth, Texas Project Development (Rating Assigned November 2012)

Increased Transportation Infrastructure Investment Critical to State s Continued Economic Development

THE. ATLANTA REGION S Transit Programs Of Projects

FY Statewide Capital Investment Strategy... asset management, performance-based strategic direction

8. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

SFY 2018 (July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018) Annual Report

Fiscal Year VDOT Annual Budget June 2011

Instruction Manual. For the. National Park Service. Alternative Transportation Systems. Financial Proforma

Chapter 6: Financial Resources

Transcription:

Appendix G RTP Revenue Assumptions REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN/SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES STRATEGY

Exhibit G-1 2014 RTP REVENUE FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS LOCAL REVENUES Measure K Sales Tax Renewal Program: Description: Measure K Renewal was approved by voters in 2006. Program will sunset in 2041. Data Source: Measure K Renewal Ordinance and Expenditure Plan. Growth Rate: 6.35%. Assumption Base: Based on updated 2013 figures. Revenue total: $2,280,460,000. Measure K Sales Tax Renewal Program Increment: Description: ¼-cent increment to Measure K Renewal beginning in 2016. Program will sunset in 2041. Data Source: Measure K Renewal Ordinance and Expenditure Plan. Growth Rate: 6.35%. Assumption Base: Based on updated 2013 figures. Revenue total: $1,332,169,000. Local Transportation Fund (LTF): Description: LTF is a portion of the Transportation Development Act (TDA) dollars derived from a ¼ cent general sales tax imposed statewide for transportation purposes. LTF funds are deemed local as it is not subject to state appropriation or apportionment. SJCOG administers the LTF funds. The LTF assumption maintains historical spending of LTF to local streets and roads and does not make any dramatic policy shift for transit. Data Source: SJCOG. Growth Rate: 2%. Assumption Base: Based on a three-year historical average. Revenue total: $678,461,000. Private Railroad Contribution: Description: Contribution of Private Railroad companies to Railroad Crossing Safety transportation projects. Data Source: SJCOG. Growth Rate: None assumed. Assumption Base: Based on historical averages and private railroad contributing 10% to specific Tier I Railroad Crossing Safety project expenditures in the RTP. Revenue total: $7,044,000. Transit Fares & Miscellaneous: Description: Consists of transit fares collected by transit operators in the San Joaquin region. Data Source: Figures from survey of transit operators in San Joaquin County. Growth Rate: 2%. Assumption Base: Figures based on four-year (FY 09/10 to FY 12/13) average Farebox Recovery figures. Revenue total: $244,479,000. Developer Fees/Local General Fund: Description: Funds associated with transportation revenue received from the general fund, developer fee programs, traffic impact fees. Data Source: Figures are calculated from self-reported information provided by the local jurisdictions. Growth Rate: None assumed. Assumption Base: Based upon historical figures and growth trends. Revenue total: $859,765,000. Regional Transportation Impact Fee (RTIF): Description: The RTIF program imposes a one time fee on new residential and non-residential development in San Joaquin County. The fee is imposed and collected by the cities of Escalon, Lathrop, Lodi, Manteca, Ripon, Stockton, Tracy and the County of San Joaquin. The RTIF program is managed by SJCOG, and was implemented in 2006. Data Source: SJCOG. Growth Rate: Initial fee increases 4% annually, and development unit projections based on historical growth trends at the start of the fee program. Assumption Base: Based on historical patterns of growth at the start of program. Revenue total: $541,052,000.

Altamont Commuter Express (ACE) Fare Revenue: Description: Funds received from the passenger fares of the ACE train. Data Source: San Joaquin Regional Rail Commission. Growth Rate: Assumes a $1.2 million increase for each additional train added during the timeframe of the RTP. Assumption Base: Based on historical figures. Revenue total: $170,400,000. Alameda County/Santa Clara County Contribution for ACE: Description: Funds received from Alameda and Santa Clara counties for capital projects to equalize the initial capital investment made by the San Joaquin Regional Rail Commission. Data Source: SJRRC. Growth Rate: 2%. Assumption Base: Based on a $1.2M annual contribution from Alameda and $2.5M annual contribution from Santa Clara. Revenue total: $161,283,000. FEDERAL REVENUES Federal Transit Administration 5307: Description: Distributed annually to state urbanized areas with a formula based on population, population density and transit revenue miles of service. Program funds capital projects (and operations expenses in areas under 200,000 in population), preventative maintenance and planning activities. Data Source: FTA. Growth Rate: 3.5%. Assumption Base: Based on FTA annual estimates. Revenue total: $541,504,000. Federal Transit Administration 5309 New Starts Capital Investment Grants: Description: Section 5309 New Starts Capital Investment Program provides capital funding for new and replacement buses and facilities, modernization of existing rail systems, and new fixed guideway systems. Data Source: FTA Growth Rate: Discretionary program. Assumption Base: Future assumptions on grants for the San Joaquin Regional Transit District based on past figures. Revenue total: $40,000,000. Federal Transit Administration 5310: Description: Funds allocated by formula to states for capital costs of providing services to the elderly and disabled. Data Source: FTA/SJCOG. Competitive program. Growth Rate: 3.5%. Assumption Base: Based on two-year historical programmed average of awarded funding. Revenue total: $16,318,000. Federal Transit Administration 5311: Description: Program provides capital and operating expenses for rural and small urban public transportation systems. Data Source: FTA. Growth Rate: 3.5%. Assumption Base: Based on FTA annual estimates. Revenue total: $16,191,334. Federal Transit Administration 5337: Description: Program provides capital assistance for replacement and rehabilitation projects of existing fixed guideway systems to maintain a state of good repair. Data Source: FTA. Growth Rate: 3.5%. Assumption Base: Based on FTA annual estimates. Revenue total: $102,084,000. Federal Transit Administration 5339: Description: Formula grant program that provides funding to replace, rehabilitate, and purchase buses and related equipment as well

as construct bus related facilities. Data Source: FTA. Growth Rate: 3.5%. Assumption Base: Based on FTA annual estimate projections. Revenue total: $54,958,000. Regional Surface Transportation Program (RSTP): Description: The STP program provides flexible funding for projects on any Federal aide highway, bridges on public roads, transit capital projects and intracity and intercity bus terminals and facilities on a formula basis. Data Source: FTA. Growth Rate: 3.5%. Assumption Base: Based upon FHWA and Caltrans annual estimate of apportionments. Revenue total: $297,202,000. Transportation Alternatives Program (TAP): Description: Federal funds from the STP provide funds to promote transportation alternatives such as bicycle and pedestrian facilities. Data Source: FHWA and Caltrans. Growth Rate: 3.5%. Assumption Base: Based on FHWA annual estimates. Revenue total: $52,242,000. Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Program (CMAQ): Description: Federal program with goals to reduce traffic congestion and improve air quality in non-attainment areas. Project examples include: signal coordination, ridesharing, bus service expansion. Data Source: FHWA and Caltrans. Growth Rate: 3.5%. Assumption Base: Based upon FHWA and Caltrans annual estimate of apportionments. Revenue total: $289,674,000. Federal Aid to Airports: Description: Federal Aid to Airports revenue projections are based on the average annual receipt. Data Source: Stockton Metropolitan Airport and Tracy Municipal Airport. Growth Rate: 3.5%. Assumption Base: Based on historical annual receipt. Revenue total: $47,961,000. Safety Program: Description: Funding received from Federal Safety programs including the Highway Bridge Program (HBP), Emergency Relief, Section 130 Railroad Crossing Safety, and Minor Construction program. Data Source: FHWA and Caltrans. Growth Rate: 3.5%. Assumption Base: Based on a three-year historical average. Revenue total: $221,017,000. Federal Demonstration/Earmarks: Description: Funding received from future federal transportation funding bills. Data Source: FHWA, SAFETEA-LU. Growth Rate: Discretionary program. Assumption Base: Based on the annual average of actual SAFETEA-LU earmarks. Revenue total: $130,950,000. STATE REVENUES State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP): Description: Overall, the STIP in California represents a sum of the Regional Transportation Improvement Programs (RTIPs) and Interregional Transportation Improvement Programs (ITIPs). The CTC programs an available amount of STIP funds after a take-down of the State Highway Account (SHA) for the SHOPP and other programs. The STIP funds are distributed 75 percent to RTIP and 25 percent to ITIP. Data Source: Caltrans. Growth Rate: 2%. Assumption Base: Based on 2012 and 2014 STIP cycle average annual apportionment. Revenue total: $598,692,000.

Transportation Bond Formula Funds: Description: California Transportation Bond package includes $19.9 billion for safety improvements and repairs to State highways, upgrades to freeways to reduce congestion, repairs to local streets and roads, improvements to the seismic safety of local bridges, expansion of public transit, reduction of air pollution, and improvements to antiterrorism security at ports. Includes protection of any future Proposition 42 transfers. Formula funding includes local streets and roads, STIP augmentation and Public Transit. Data Source: Caltrans. Growth Rate:. Assumption Base: Based on formula distribution. Revenue total: $55,558,103. Transportation Bond Discretionary Funds: Description: California Transportation Bond package includes $19.9 billion for safety improvements and repairs to State highways, upgrades to freeways to reduce congestion, repairs to local streets and roads, improvements to the seismic safety of local bridges, expansion of public transit, reduction of air pollution, and improvements to antiterrorism security at ports. Actual remaining project allocations from the CMIA, TCIF, HRCSA and State Route 99 programs were included in the RTP. Assumptions included for remaining funding programs. Data Source: SJCOG. Growth Rate:. Assumption Base: Discretionary Program. Revenue total: $128,798,000. State Gas Tax Subvention: Description: New gasoline excise tax subventions that began in 2011. 44% of the revenues generated by the excise tax will go to local streets and roads. Data Source: California State Controller. Growth Rate: 2%. Assumption Base: Formula distribution Revenue total: $943,146,000. State Highway Operation and Protection Program (SHOPP): Description: Funds state highway maintenance and operations projects. Data Source: Caltrans. Growth Rate: 2%. Assumption Base: Based on a six-year historical average of the SHOPP program. Revenue total: $785,833,000. Future State Discretionary Programs: Description: Discretionary program, revenue estimate is based on the historical receipt of funds from state programs such as the Traffic Congestion Relief Program (TCRP) and Proposition 1B Transportation Bond Program. Recognizes potential for additional funds to be received from cost savings from current programs within the Proposition 1B Transportation Bond Program Data Source: SJCOG. Growth Rate: Discretionary program. Assumption Base: Historical average. Revenue total: $260,000,000. State Transit Assistance (STA): Description: STA is a portion of the Transportation Development Act (TDA) dollars derived from the statewide sales tax on diesel fuel and are available only for transportation planning and mass transportation purposes. LTF funds are deemed state as they are subject to state appropriation. Data Source: California State Controller. Rate: 2%. Assumption Base: Based on a three-year historical average. Revenue total: $167,128,000. Alameda State Transit Assistance (STA) contribution: Description: Funds received from Alameda County s STA portion to the San Joaquin Regional Rail Commission. Data Source: SJRRC Growth Rate: 2%. Assumption Base: Based on $240,000 annual contribution. Revenue total: $5,076,000.

State Aid to Airports: Description: Funding from California Aid to Airports. Data Source: Survey of San Joaquin County airports. Growth Rate: 2%. Assumption Base: Based on historical average of average receipt. Revenue total: $2,000,000. Public Utilities Commission: Description: The Public Utilities Commission regulates privately owned electric, telecommunications, natural gas, water and transportation companies, in addition to household goods movers and rail safety. Funds received from the Public Utilities Commission to contribute Railroad Crossing Safety projects. Data Source: SJCOG. Growth Rate:. Assumption Base: Based on 10% contribution to specific Railroad Crossing Safety Projects and historical receipts. Revenue total: $25,000,000.

Table 7.1 Long-Range Plan Revenue Table REVENUE SOURCES 2014-2040 TOTAL FEDERAL TRANSIT STATE REGIONAL LOCAL Local Transportation Fund (Transportation Development Act) $678,461,000 Private Railroad Contribution $7,044,000 Local Developer Fees/General Funds $859,765,000 Bus Fares & Miscellaneous $244,479,000 Altamont Corridor Express Fare Revenue $170,400,000 Alameda/Santa Clara Contribution to ACE $161,283,000 Local Total $2,121,432,000 Measure K Sales Tax Program $2,280,460,000 Measure K Sales Tax Program Increment $1,332,169,000 Regional Transportation Impact Fee $541,052,000 Regional Total $4,153,682,000 State Highway Operations and Protection Program (SHOPP) $785,833,000 State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) -- Regional RTIP and ITIP $598,692,000 Future State Discretionary Programs $260,000,000 State Transit Assistance (STA) $167,128,000 Alameda STA contribution $5,076,000 State Gas Tax Subvention $943,146,000 State Transportation Bond -- Formula Funds $25,798,000 -- Discretionary Funds $103,000,000 State Aid to Airports $2,000,000 Public Utilties Commission $25,000,000 State Total $2,915,673,000 Federal Transit Formula Urbanized Area Formula Program (5307) $541,504,000 Nonurbanized Area Formula Program (5311) $16,191,000 Elderly & Persons with Disabilities Formula Program (5310) $16,318,000 Section 5337 - State of Good Repair $102,084,000 Section 5339 - Bus and Bus Facilities $54,958,000 Other Subtotal $731,055,000 Federal Transit Non-Formula New Starts Capital Investment Grants (5309) $40,000,000 Other Subtotal $40,000,000 Federal Transit Total $771,055,000

Table 7.1 Long-Range Plan Revenue Table REVENUE SOURCES 2014-2040 TOTAL FEDERAL HIGHWAY INNOVATIVE FINANCE Federal Highway Non-Discretionary Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality $289,674,000 Surface Transportation Program (Regional) $297,202,000 Transportation Alternatives Program $52,242,000 Safety Program Total -- Highway Bridge Replacement and Rehabilitation Program -- Highway Safety Improvement Program (MAP-21) -- Rail/Highway Grade Crossing Protection (USC Section 130) $221,017,000 -- Minor Construction Program -- Emergency Relief Federal Lands Highway Federal Aid to Airports $47,961,000 Subtotal $908,095,000 Federal Highway Discretionary Programs Bridge Discretionary Program Corridor Infrastructure Improvement Program Coordinated Border Infrastructure Ferry Boat Discretionary High Priority Projects National Scenic Byways Program Projects of National/Regional Significance Public Lands Highway Discretionary Recreational Trails Transportation and Community and System Preservation Program Transportation Improvement Projects Other -- Interstate Maintenance Discretionary (IMD) Program -- Future Federal Discretionary Programs $130,950,000 Subtotal $130,950,000 Federal Highway Total $1,039,045,000 FEDERAL TOTAL $1,810,101,000 TIFIA (Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act) State Infrastructure Bank Section 129 Loans Rail Rehab & Improvement Financing Private Activity Bonds Private Concession Fees Private Donations Program Income (from a federal project) Other Innovative Financing Total REVENUE TOTAL $11,000,888,000 KEY: U = Data are unavailable. NA = Not applicable (not a projected revenue source at the development time of RTP) SOURCES: See 2014 RTP Revenue Forecast Assumptions in Appendix

Technical Memorandum for 2014 Regional Transportation Plan - RTP New and (Existing) Revenues Overview and Purpose: As stated throughout the RTP document, the financial forecast is a 27-year outlook of reasonably available revenues that are expected to finance the list of RTP projects. This forecast was completed in accordance with RTP Guidelines. Some funding assumptions rely on historical trends and involve growth rates applied to the revenues. The San Joaquin Council of Governments has kept these assumptions conservative (as compared to some RTPs throughout the state on several state/federal revenue sources.) As an example, growth rates for SJCOG RTP revenues are predominantly 3.5% or lower while some RTPs statewide make assumptions higher than four percent. Where possible and reasonable, projections of future revenue are based upon receipts of funds from various state/federal transportation grant and funding programs or from historical records of funding contributions from other parties to projects. During the Draft RTP comment period, there was interest (from reviewers) in the underlying basis for the assumption of the ¼ cent sales tax, a new revenue assumption identified in the forecast. The purpose of this technical memorandum is to provide additional analysis and to respond to key questions on the revenue assumptions. The analysis will also provide more background on the ¼ cent sales tax funding assumption in the Regional Transportation Plan. This analysis begins by separating the types of revenues (i.e. new or core revenues). It then assesses the risk of the revenue assumptions and articulates a menu of financial strategies that could be considered (and then employed if reasonable) to help mitigate those risks. What are the different types of funding in the RTP? The Regional Transportation Plan has two types of funding assumptions. One is core revenues which generally summarizes assumptions made from known (existing) revenue sources and historical trends. The other funding assumption is new. There is only one new funding source in the San Joaquin Council of Governments RTP-- the ¼ cent sales tax assumption. The ¼ cent sales tax revenue assumption is highlighted as new because this is a funding assumption that will have a higher risk of being realized than core/existing funding assumptions. It is also identified as new because there is no history in San Joaquin County of concurrent sales tax measures for transportation purposes administered by San Joaquin Council of governments. It would require successful passage of ballot measure to be realized. Technical Memorandum for 2014 RTP Revenues Page 1

There are two other MPOs in California (SANDAG San Diego Association of Governments and SCAG Southern California Association of Governments) which have made assumptions for sales tax measures in their respective Regional Transportation Plans. Both of those RTPs were found to be fiscally constrained with those new revenue assumptions. Therefore, the financial assumption of a new sales tax measure is not a new practice or precedent setting in financial forecasting of RTPs. In order to clearly delineate new revenue from traditionally received revenues, Table 1 provides detail on the core and new revenue. This table shows that the ¼ cent sales tax is the only new revenue source in the RTP, as compared to other funding assumptions that have some historical basis. Table 1 shows that the proportionate share of new revenues comprising the financial forecast is low. While other RTPs in the state make assumptions for more than one new revenue source, this is not the case with SJCOG RTP. In fact, the ¼ cent sales tax assumption, as explained later, reflects $1 billion of the $11 billion 27-year financial projections. In addition, the table illustrates that there are risks associated with all revenue sources in the 27-year forecast. This is the nature of financial forecasting. Those risks vary (in degree) from fund source to fund source. Thus, the mitigations to those risks (which are also identified in the table) will vary as well. What projects are funded by the quarter cent sales tax assumption? The ¼ cent sales tax provides $1 billion of funding to an array of transportation project modes in the same proportionate funding distribution of Measure K and the Measure K Renewal Sales Tax Measures. Table 2 shows the break-out of the projects that are constrained against this revenue assumption. What happens if funding assumptions in the RTP are not realized? If the core and new funding assumptions are not realized, this does not mean that the RTP is automatically financially unconstrained. Title 23 CFR Part 450.322 (f) (10) (viii) states the following: In cases where the FHWA and the FTA find a metropolitan transportation plan to be fiscally constrained and a revenue source is subsequently removed or substantially reduced (i.e. by legislative or administrative actions), the FHWA and FTA will not withdraw the original determination of fiscal constraint; however, in such cases, the FHWA and FTA will not act on an updated or an amended metropolitan plan that does not reflect the changed revenue situation. If needed, an amendment to the Regional Transportation Plan can be considered by the San Joaquin Council of Governments Board at any time after the adoption of the RTP. RTP amendments are possible for any Regional Transportation Planning Agency, though they are not a common practice. Statewide, amendments have been done to add new projects to the plan, update project cost information, and update revenue projections. Again, if a revenue assumption is not realized, it does not trigger an Technical Memorandum for 2014 RTP Revenues Page 2

automatic RTP amendment; other revenues sources in the plan may demonstrate funding received at rates higher than anticipated. Therefore, regular re-evaluation of the RTP will occur and a determination whether an amendment is needed will be part of RTP implementation. This review process (of financial constraint) applies whenever any funding assumption varies significantly from the forecast, including but not limited to, the ¼ cent sales tax assumption. What strategies can help improve accuracy of revenue projections? Various financial strategies could be implemented to ensure or improve ability for revenues to be realized. Table 3 provides examples of strategies that can help to achieve revenues in the plan. The list in the table are not intended to be a plan of action, but an illustrative example of steps that can be considered during RTP implementation. Conclusion The San Joaquin Council of Governments asserts that the 27-year forecast for the 2014 Regional Transportation Plan meets state and federal financial constraint requirements. The risks (of each fund source) have been assessed and a process is in place should changing revenue situations require amendments to the Regional Transportation Plan. Technical Memorandum for 2014 RTP Revenues Page 3

TABLE 1: NEW AND CORE REVENUES, AVAILABILITY ASSUMPTIONS AND RISKS Revenue Source New or () Existing Availability Assumption Potential Risk Risk Mitigation Measure K 1/4-Cent Increment Measure K Renewal Local Transportation Funds (LTF) Private Railroad Bus Fares & Miscellaneous General Fund/Developer Fees/Other Regional Traffic Impact Fee Altamont Corridor Express Fares Alameda/Santa Clara ACE Funding Federal Transit Administration Regional Surface Transportation Program New 1/4-cent increment to Measure K Renewal beginning in 2016. Program will sunset in 2041. Revenue projections based on updated 2013 figures. Growth Rate: 6.35% Approved by votes in 2006. Program will sunset in 2041. Revenue projections based on updated 2013 figures. Growth Rate: 6.35%. Revenue projections based on a three-year historical average. Growth Rate: 2%. Based on historical averages and private railroad contributing 10% to Railroad Crossing Safety project expenditures in the RTP. Figures based on four-year (FY 09/10 to FY 12/13) average Farebox Recovery figures. Growth Rate: 2%. Based upon historical figures and growth trends calculated from self-reported information provided by the local jurisdicitions. Growth Rate: None assumed. Based on historical pattens of growth at the start of the program. Assumes a $1.2 million increased in passenger fares for each additional train added during the timeframe fo the RTP. Revenue assumptions based on historical figures. Based on a $1.2M annual contribution from Alameda County and $2.5M annual contribution from Santa Clara. Growth Rate: 2%. FEDERAL Based on FTA annual estimates. Growth Rate: 3.5%. 5309 projections based on future assumptions on grants for San Joaquin RTD based on past figures. Based on FHWA and Caltrans' annual estimate of apportionments. Growth Rate: 3.5%. Transportation Alternatives Program Based on FHWA annual estimates. Growth Rate: 3.5% The ballot measure fails Funds not secured at the anticipated amounts. Farebox not achieved. Local development does not occur to keep pace with revenue identified. Regional fees are not collected at this rate. Fare revenue not achieved. Growth rate and/or contributions not secured. Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) Based on FHWA and Caltran's annual estimate of apportionments. Growth Rate: 3.5% Safety Program Based on a three-year historical average. Growth Rate: 3.5%. Federal Demonstration/Earmarks State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) State Transportation Bond Package LOCAL Earmarks are not realized at Assumes funding received from future federal this amount and/or federal transportation funding bills. Based on the annual average of transportation bill precludes actual SAFETEA-LU earmarks. earmarks. STATE Based on 2012 and 2014 STIP cycle average annual apportionment. Growth Rate: 2%. Based on formula distribution and actual remaining project allocations. State Gas Tax Subvention (HUTA) Formula distribution. Growth Rate: 2%. Funds not secured as anticipated. State Highway Operation and Protection Program (SHOPP) Based on a six-year historical average of the SHOPP program. Growth Rate: 2%. Future State Discretionary Programs Alameda County STA for ACE Service Public Utilities Commission (Railroad) Revenue estimate is based on the historical receipt of funds from state programs such as the Traffic Congestion Relief Program (TCRP) and Proposition 1B. Based on $240,000 annual contribution of STA funds from Alameda County. Growth Rate: 2%. Based on 10% contribution to Railroad Growth Safety Projects in the RTP and historical receipts. Receipt of funds lower than anticipated. Contributions lower than anticipated. Contributions lower than anticipated.

TABLE 2: TRANSPORTATION MODES UTILIZING "CORE" AND "NEW" REVENUE (Existing) Revenue "New" 1/4- Cent Increment RTP Total % of Total Programming based upon 1/4 cent sales tax Mainline Highway $1,133,483 $253,422 $1,386,905 18.3% Interchanges $710,959 $15,458 $726,417 2.1% Regional Roadways $1,006,659 $153,509 $1,160,168 13.2% Operations and Maintenance Railroad Crossing Safety $3,228,764 $454,859 $3,683,623 12.3% $159,240 $32,490 $191,730 16.9% Bus Transit $2,204,036 $210,535 $2,414,571 8.7% Rail Transit $953,640 $152,053 $1,105,693 13.8% Active Transportation (Bike/Ped) $221,978 $59,843 $281,821 21.2% 2014-2040 Total $9,630,759 $1,332,169 $10,950,928 12.2%

TABLE 3: MENU OF FINANCIAL STRATEGIES TO HELP IMPLEMENT FINANCIAL FORECAST -- INTENDED FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY 1. 2. 3. General Legislative and Funding Considerations/Strategies Maximize opportunities to leverage local transportation sales tax revenues to attract additional state and federal funds to the region for transportation and related infrastructure improvements. Establish federal transportation program authorization and obligational authority levels based on actual and projected Federal Highway Trust Fund revenue levels, including interest received. Maintain or increase the level of revenue flowing into the Trust Fund by increasing the federal gas tax rate and/or eliminating or reducing transfers of tax exemptions that shift transportation revenues to other purposes. 4. Provide funding certainly by ensuring timely passage of annual appropriations and reauthorization to maintain and improve the transportation network. Increase state highway revenues as needed to maintain, rehabilitate, and operate the existing state highway system, to match all 5. available federal highway funds, and to fully fund all new construction and right-of-way projects identified in the current State and Regional Transportation Improvement Programs (TIPs). 6. Increase transit revenues to support transit operating and capital improvements, including new transit projects. 7. Consider state and federal legislation that provides additional transportation funding, which is needed to implement those projects identified in the RTP. 8. Maintain current levels of local general fund and other local discretionary fund support to the local street and road program so that any new or increased revenues to the local street and road program will augment and not replace current revenues. 9. Consider legislation that lowers the threshold required to pass transportation sales tax measures. 10. Pursue the continuation and expansion of existing sources of transit funding and support modifications to those sources to ensure full utilization and maximum flexibility. 11. Work with local, state, and federal officials to ensure that the region receives an equitable share of available discretionary transit funds. 12. Adjust fare levels as needed to maintain and improve farebox recovery levels over time in order to maximize the level of transit service that can be provided. 13. Consider dedication of cap-and-trade revenues related to fuels to transportation investments. 14. Structure the investments to favor integrated transportation and land use strategies with an emphasis on poor air quality regions, such as San Joaquin County. 15. Allow flexibility at the regional and local level to develop the most cost-effective ways to meet GHG reduction goals through transportation and land use investments. 16. Provide the economic incentives and assistance that local governments need to make SB 375 work. 17. Transit Considerations/Strategies Other Considerations/Strategies Address project-funding determinations at the regional level under established statewide criteria to encourage local innovation and flexibility, while addressing the needs and role of disadvantaged communities. 18. Conduct polling and research to determine feasibility of sales tax ballot measure