Stock Market Briefing: S&P Earnings Squiggles April 23, Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-56 jabbott@ Mali Quintana 4-664-33 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P Earnings Squiggles (Monthly) 1-2 S&P Earnings Squiggles (Weekly) 3-4 Annual Earnings Squiggles Performance & Long-Term NERI 5-6 Annual Earnings & Revenues Squiggles 7 April 23, / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Earnings Squiggles www.
S&P Earnings Squiggles (Monthly) 1 1 Figure 1. S&P OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (Thomson Reuters data) (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, monthly, ratio scale) 1 1 1 1 1 Actual 4Q sum** 6 7 8 9 16 17 Q4 1 1 1 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 95 96 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 16 17 ** Actual 4Q sum from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 45 Figure 2. S&P OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (Thomson Reuters data) (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, monthly, ratio scale) 45 35 Actual 4Q sum** 91 92 93 94 95 35 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 81 79 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 * "Squiggles" span months from February to February ** Actual 4Q sum from S&P until Q4-93 then Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S thereafter. Page 1 / April 23, / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Earnings Squiggles www.
S&P Earnings Squiggles (Monthly) 1 1 1 1 1 Figure 3. S&P OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (Thomson Reuters data) (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, monthly, ratio scale) -month forward** Actual 4Q sum*** 6 7 8 9 16 17 Q4 Apr 1 1 1 1 1 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 95 96 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 16 17 ** Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years. *** Actual 4Q sum from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 45 Figure 4. S&P OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (Thomson Reuters data) (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, monthly, ratio scale) 45 35 82 83 -month forward** Actual 4Q sum*** 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 35 81 79 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 ** Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years. *** Actual 4Q sum from S&P until Q4-93 then Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S thereafter. Page 2 / April 23, / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Earnings Squiggles www.
1 1 Figure 5. S&P Earnings Squiggles (Weekly) S&P OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (Thomson Reuters data) (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 1 1 1 1 16 17 Q4 1 1 1 1 Annual Actual 4Q sum* 9 8 9 16 17 * Actual 4Q sum from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 1 1 Figure 6. S&P OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (Thomson Reuters data) (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 8 1 1 7 Actual 4Q sum** 6 1 2 3 5 6 4 6 99 98 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ** Actual 4Q sum from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 3 / April 23, / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Earnings Squiggles www.
1 1 Figure 7. S&P Earnings Squiggles (Weekly) S&P OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (Thomson Reuters data) (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 4/ 1 1 1 1 16 17 Q4 1 1 1 1 52-week forward** Actual 4Q sum*** 9 8 9 16 17 ** Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years. *** Actual 4Q sum from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 1 1 Figure 8. S&P OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (Thomson Reuters data) (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 8 1 1 7 52-week forward** Actual 4Q sum*** 6 1 2 3 5 6 4 6 99 98 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ** Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years. *** Actual 4Q sum from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 4 / April 23, / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Earnings Squiggles www.
Annual Earnings Squiggles Performance & Long-Term NERI Figure 9. S&P CONSENSUS ANNUAL EARNINGS FORECASTS: -17* (Thomson Reuters data) (-month percent change) 9.4 8.7 2.4 8.8 8.3 8.2 5. 2.4 - - - - -. -38.9 -.9 -.6-31.7-26.4 -.3-6.3 -.9-35.3-26.2 -.1-5.4-4.8-5.2-16. -.3-5.3-33.2-29.9 -.9-8.8-32.3-6.9-7.8-5.8 -.3 -. -4. - - - - - -45.6 - -6 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 16 17-6 * Percent change in consensus annual forecast from initial forecast to actual, e.g., from February 79 to February 81 for calendar year. Figure. S&P CONSENSUS ANNUAL OPERATING EARNINGS GROWTH FORECASTS (percent) 5 (.9) (6.) (6.1) (7.) (.5) 16 (1.5) 17 (.2) (.6) (.4) 16 17 5-5 Latest data thru 4// 8 9 16 17-5 Page 5 / April 23, / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Earnings Squiggles www.
Annual Earnings Squiggles Performance & Long-Term NERI Figure. S&P NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* (percent, three-month basis) Mar - - - - - - - - - 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 16 17 - * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Page 6 / April 23, / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Earnings Squiggles www.
1 16 Figure. Annual Earnings & Revenues Squiggles S&P EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 1 16 1 1 17 1 16 1 Latest data thru 4// 8 9 16 17 1 Figure. S&P REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 1 1 1 17 1 1 1 16 1 9 Latest data thru 4// 8 9 16 17 9 Page 7 / April 23, / Stock Market Briefing: S&P Earnings Squiggles www.
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