THE IMPORTANCE OF PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AS A DRIVER OF VICTORIA S ECONOMY PRESENTATION TO MEMBERS OF THE PARLIAMENT OF VICTORIA MELBOURNE 24 TH NOVEMBER 2016
Victoria s economy is picking up after under-performing the national economy during the mining boom but will it last? Real gross State product Real gross State product per capita 4.5 % change from previous year 3.5 % change from previous year 4.0 2016-17 Budget forecasts 3.0 2016-17 Budget forecasts 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Australia 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Australia 1.5 0.0 1.0 0.5 Victoria -0.5-1.0 Victoria 0.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-1.5 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Financial years ended 30 June Financial years ended 30 June Source: ABS 5206.0 and 5220.0; Australian and Victorian Government 2016-17 Budget Papers.
New South Wales has been doing better on economic growth than Victoria so far this decade and is forecast to keep out-performing Real gross State product Real gross State product per capita 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 % change from previous year New South Wales 2015-16 Budget forecasts 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 % change from previous year New South Wales 2015-16 Budget forecasts 2.0 0.5 1.5 0.0 1.0-0.5 0.5 Victoria -1.0 Victoria 0.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-1.5 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Financial years ended 30 June Financial years ended 30 June Source: ABS 5206.0 and 5220.0; New South Wales and Victorian Government 2016-17 Budget Papers.
Victoria s per capita gross State product was $6,700 or 10% below the national average in 2014-15 and will still be 8% below in 2019-20 Gross State product (GSP) per capita, States & Territories, 2015-16 Victorian GSP per capita as a pc of national average, 1989-90 to 2014-15 100 90 $000 per head, 2015-16 103 101 99 % of national average 2016-17 Budget forecasts 80 97 70 $6,691 (9.7%) National average 95 93 60 91 89 50 87 40 NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 Financial years ended 30 June Sources: ABS 5220.0, Australian and Victorian Government 2016-17 Budget Papers.
The decline in Victoria per capita GSP as a pc of the national average is partly a by-product of the mining boom but that isn t the whole story Victorian GSP per capita as a pc of national average excluding WA Victorian GSP per capita as a pc of New South Wales 105 103 % of national average 2016-17 Budget forecasts 100 % of national average 2016-17 Budget forecasts 101 98 99 97 Victoria as a pc of national average excluding WA 96 95 94 93 91 92 89 87 Victoria as a pc of national average 90 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 Financial years ended 30 June 88 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 Financial years ended 30 June Sources: ABS 5220.0, Australian, Victorian, WA and NSW Government 2016-17 Budget Papers.
Gross State product per head Differences in per capita gross product are the major determinant of differences in per capita household income among the States Gross State product and household disposable income per head, 2015-16 Victorian per capita household disposable income as a pc of national average 100 $000 102 % of national average R² = 0.808 90 100 80 98 70 NSW 96 60 Vic 94 50 92 40 $000 35 40 45 50 55 60 90 90 95 00 05 10 15 Household disposable income per head Financial years ended 30 June Source: ABS 5220.0.
A useful way of thinking about the reasons for Victoria s below-average per capita gross product employment population gross State product population = total hours worked employment = gross State product population gross State product total hours worked
A useful way of thinking about the reasons for Victoria s below-average per capita gross product employment population participation rate gross State product population = total hours worked employment = average hours worked gross State product total hours worked labour productivity
The effect of Victoria s above-average participation rate is more than offset by below-average working hours and labour productivity 55 Employment-to-population ratio, 2015-16 % of population Average weekly hours worked, 2015-16 36 Hours per week Output per hour worked, 2015-16 120 $ per hour worked 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 +0.24 pc pts National average 35 34 33 32 31 30 29-0.62 hours National average 110 100 90 80 70 -$7.47 per hour (-8.9%) National average 45 NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT 28 NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT 60 NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Source: ABS 5220.0 and 6202.0
86% of the difference between Victoria s per capita GSP and the national average is attributable to lower labour productivity Sources of difference between Victorian per capita gross State product and the national average, 2015-16 70 69 $000 per head +$334 68 67 -$1,663 66 65 64 63 62 -$5,784 61 60 National average Difference in employment / population ratio Difference in average hours worked Difference in labour productivity Victoria Note: data shown in this chart are in 2014-15 dollars. Source: ABS 5220.0 and 6202.0
Why does productivity matter? Productivity is the prime determinant in the long run of a nation s standard of living, for it is the root cause of per capita national income. High productivity not only supports high levels of income but allows citizens the option of choosing more leisure instead of longer working hours. It also creates the national income that is taxed to pay for public services which again boosts the standard of living. The capacity to be highly productive also allows a nation s firms to meet stringent social standards which improve the standard of living, such as in health and safety, equal opportunity and environmental impact Michael E Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (1991) Productivity isn t everything, but in the long run it s nearly everything Paul Krugman, The Age of Diminished Expectations (1994) There is only one source of ongoing higher rates of growth of real per capita incomes, and that is higher rates of growth of productivity Glenn Stevens, The cautious consumer, Address to the Anika Foundation (2011)
Labour productivity growth in Victoria has slowed relative to the rest of Australia since 2010-11 Labour productivity growth, States and Territories Victorian labour productivity as a pc of the national average 4.0 % pa 99 % of national average 3.5 98 3.0 97 2.5 96 95 2.0 94 1.5 93 1.0 92 0.5 91 0.0 NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Aus 90 90 95 00 05 10 15 Financial years ended 30 June 1991-92 to 2000-01 2001-02 to 2010-11 2011-12 to 2015-16 Sources: ABS 5220.0.
Three top down reasons for Victoria s poor labour productivity performance Victoria has a below-average share of high productivity industries A majority of Victorians work in industries where labour productivity in Victoria is lower than the corresponding national average level of labour productivity for those industries Labour productivity growth has slowed by more, across a larger proportion of the Victorian economy, than has been the case nationally
One reason for Victoria s below-average productivity is that it has a below-average share of industries with above-average productivity Labour productivity by industry, Australia, 2015-16 Industry shares of gross value added, Victoria and Australia, 2015-16 All-industry average $ per hour worked 0 50 100 150 200 250 Mining Financial and insurance services Electricity, gas and water Rental, hiring and real estate services Information, media & telcoms services Wholesale trade Public administration and safety Administration and support services Construction Transport, postal & warehousing Manufac turing Professional, scientific technical services Agriculture, forestry and fishing Education and training Health care & social assistance Art and recreation services Retail trade Other services Accommodation and food services Victoria Australia % of gross value added 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 The six sectors which, at the national level, have above-average levels of labour productivity, account for 28% of Victoria s total gross value added 2 pc points below their share of the national economy (cf. 31% of NSW s and 41% of WA s) Note: Gross value added is gross State or domestic product excluding ownership of dwellings. Sources: ABS 5206,0, 5220.0 and 6291.0.55.003
One reason for Victoria s below-average productivity is that it has a below-average share of industries with above-average productivity Labour productivity by industry, Australia, 2015-16 Industry shares of employment, Victoria and Australia, 2015-16 All-industry average $ per hour worked 0 50 100 150 200 250 Mining Financial and insurance services Electricity, gas and water Rental, hiring and real estate services Information, media & telcoms services Wholesale trade Public administration and safety Administration and support services Construction Transport, postal & warehousing Manufac turing Professional, scientific technical services Agriculture, forestry and fishing Education and training Health care & social assistance Art and recreation services Retail trade Other services Accommodation and food services Victoria Australia % of employment 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 The six sectors which, at the national level, have above-average levels of labour productivity, account for 12.3% of Victoria s employment 4.1 pc points below their share of national employment (cf. 14.6% of NSW s, and 16.8% of WA s) Sources: ABS 5206,0, 5220.0 and 6291.0.55.003
In addition, labour productivity is below the national average in 10 of Victoria s 19 industry sectors and clearly above in only two sectors Labour productivity by industry, Victoria and Australia, 2015-16 400 $ per hour worked 350 300 Victoria Australia 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: ABS 5220.0 and 6202.0
Labour productivity is below the national average in 10 of Victoria s 19 industry sectors and clearly above average in only two sectors Labour productivity in Victorian industries as a pc of labour productivity in corresponding national industries, 2015-16 170 % of Australian sector productivity 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Source: ABS 5220.0 and 6202.0
65% of employed Victorians work in industries where labour productivity is below the national average for that industry Labour productivity in Victorian industries as pc of national averages, 2014-15 Industry shares of employment and value added, Victoria, 2014-15 % of national industry labour productivity 70 90 110 130 150 170 Mining Professional, scientific technical services Rental, hiring and real estate services Education and training Retail trade Art and recreation services Financial and insurance services Information, media & telcoms services Other services Health care & social assistance Wholesale trade Accommodation and food services Public administration and safety Transport, postal & warehousing Manufac turing Agriculture, forestry and fishing Administration and support services Electricity, gas and water Construction Share of employment Share of gross value added % of total 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 65% of employed Victorians work in industries where labour productivity is below the corresponding national industry level. The equivalent figure for NSW is 41%. Sources: ABS 5206,0, 5220.0 and 6291.0.55.003
Productivity growth has slowed, and been lower than the national average, in a larger share of Victorian industries over the past five years Victorian labour productivity growth by industry, past five and previous ten years Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining Manufac turing Electricity, gas and water Construction Wholesale trade Retail trade Accommodation and food services Transport, postal & warehousing Information, media & telcoms services Financial and insurance services Rental, hiring and real estate services Professional, scientific technical services Administration and support services Public administration and safety Education and training Health care & social assistance Art and recreation services Other services 10 years to 2010-11 5 years to 2015-16 -8-6 -4-2 0 2 4 6 Labour productivity growth has slowed over the past five years compared with the previous ten, in 10 out of 19 Victorian industries employing 66% of the workforce % pa Victorian & Australian labour productivity growth by industry, past five years Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining Manufac turing Electricity, gas and water Construction Wholesale trade Retail trade Accommodation and food services Transport, postal & warehousing Information, media & telcoms services Financial and insurance services Rental, hiring and real estate services Professional, scientific technical services Administration and support services Public administration and safety Education and training Health care & social assistance Art and recreation services Other services Australia Victoria -6-5 -4-3 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Labour productivity growth has been below the national average over the past five years in 10 of 19 Victorian industries employing 47% of the workforce % pa Sources: ABS 5206,0, 5220.0 and 6291.0.55.003
Unlike Tasmania, Victoria s below-average labour productivity clearly isn t the result of low levels of educational attainment and performance Proportion of population with bachelor s degree or higher, May 2015 Proportion of population with no qualification beyond Year 10 of high school, May 2015 45 % of population aged 15-75 35 % of population aged 15-75 40 30 35 30 National average 25 National average 25 20 20 15 15 10 NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT 10 NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Source: ABS 6227.0.
What other bottom-up reasons might there be for Victoria s belowaverage labour productivity? Infrastructure deficits increased traffic congestion, bottlenecks at ports and airports, or inadequacies in other key economic enablers, could be detracting from productivity in sectors such as transport, manufacturing, professional and business services Work practices may be a factor in (for example) construction where labour productivity in Victoria is 24% below the national average for construction Management practices possible that Victorian businesses are less innovative in various ways than businesses in some other States perhaps because exports represent a smaller share of Victoria s gross product than that of any other State or Territory Regulation A VCEC Inquiry in 2011 * found that the Victorian regulatory system can make a more effective and focussed contribution to Victoria s competitiveness, productivity growth and liveability, and it is important that it does so * Victorian Competition and Efficiency Commission, Strengthening the Foundations for the Next Decade: An Inquiry into Victoria s Regulatory Framework, Final Report April 2011.
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