26/3/218 Important Risk Warning The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in this product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation and investment experience. Investment involves risk. Loss may be incurred as well as profits made as a result of buying and selling investment products. Currency conversion risk - the value of your foreign currency and RMB deposit will be subject to the risk of exchange rate fluctuation. If you choose to convert your foreign currency and RMB deposit to other currencies at an exchange rate that is less favourable than the exchange rate in which you made your original conversion to that foreign currency and RMB, you may suffer loss in principal. RMB is currently not freely convertible and subject to regulatory restrictions (which might be changed from time to time). FX Focus:USD/CAD Last week, Canada CPI for February was higher than expected. Last week, USDCAD once dropped to 1.2825 levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's January GDP. Currency EUR GBP CAD JPY CHF SGD * Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 2-days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 5-day moving average, can be used if needed. Current Trend Support / Resistance vs USD vs USD 1.295 / 1.2497 1.368 / 1.442 NZD vs USD.7142 /.7394 vs USD 6.368 / 6.3844 vs USD 14.85 / 18.27 vs USD 1.385 / 1.3336 Consolidation, indicates that the currency's movement against USD has remained sideways Up Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving higher against the USD Down Trend, indicates that the currency has been moving lower against the USD Market commentary AUD vs USD.7647 /.7925 Last week, Australia unemployment rate for February was higher than expected. Last week, AUDUSD traded within the range of.7669-.784. The upcoming release will be Australia's March Melbourne Institute inflation index. RMB Last week, EURUSD rose as report showed that ECB policy makers are shifting their debate to the expected path of interest rates. Last week, EURUSD once touched 1.2388 levels. The upcoming release will be Germany March manufacturing PMI final value. Last week, GBPUSD advanced to 1-month high as news stated that the EU and the U.K. have reached a broad agreement on Brexit transition. Last week, GBPUSD once touched 1.4216 levels. The upcoming release will be UK's 4Q GDP final value. Last week, RBNZ governor stated that inflation is expected to weaken further in the near term. Last week, NZDUSD traded within the range of.7151-.7282. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's March business confidence index. Last week, US President signed a tariff on China imports. Last week, USDCNH traded within the range of 6.32-6.344. The upcoming release will be China's March manufacturing PMI. vs USD 1.2556 / 1.36 Last week, Canada CPI for February was higher than expected. Last week, USDCAD once dropped to 1.2825 levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's January GDP. Last week, with growing concern on trader war, JPY gained support. Last week, USDJPY once dropped to 15.23 levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's February unemployment rate. vs USD.9239 /.9543 Last week, market seek for safe haven currency. Last week, USDCHF once dropped to.9458 levels. The upcoming release will be Switzerland's March manufacturing PMI. Last week, FOMC raised interest rate by 25 basis points as expected, but they did not change the rate hike forecast for this year. Last week, USDSGD traded within the range of 1.316-1.3193. The upcoming release will be Singapore's March PMI.
AUD 26/3/218 RBA kept its interest rates unchanged at 1.5% in the March meeting, in line with expectations. Last week, Australia unemployment rate for February was higher than expected. Last week, AUDUSD traded within the range of.7669-.784. The upcoming release will be Australia's March Melbourne Institute inflation index. 26-Mar 1.26.775 Weekly change: -.89% -.89% (-) Australia Q4 GDP rose 2.4% YoY, lower than an increase of 2.9% in previous quarter High 1.446.7988 (~) Australia Q4 CPI rose.6% YoY, same as previous quarter Low 1.23.771 (-) Australia February unemployment rate arrived at 5.6%, higher than 5.5% in previous month Support1* 1.18.7647 Support2* 1.9.7539 (+) Australia February Commodity Price Index arrived at -1%, dropped less than -1.1% in previous month Resistance1* 1.39.7925 Resistance2* 1.53.895 1.1 AUD/SGD 6-month Chart AUD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 1.5 1..95 9 AUD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3 EUR ECB kept its interest rates unchanged at % in the March meeting, in line with expectations. Last week, EURUSD rose as report showed that ECB policy makers are shifting their debate to the expected path of interest rates. Last week, EURUSD once touched 1.2388 levels. The upcoming release will be Germany March manufacturing PMI final value. 26-Mar 1.623 1.227 Weekly change: -.22% -.22% (-) Germany Q4 GDP rose.6% QoQ, lower than an increase of.7% in previous quarter High 1.642 1.2555 (-) Eurozone February CPI rose 1.1% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.3% in previous month Low 1.6124 1.2153 Support1* 1.61.7647 (-) Germany March manufacturing PMI arrived at 58.4, lower than 6.6 in previous month Support2* 1.597 1.1923 (-) Germany March Business Climate arrived at 114.7, lower than 115.4 in previous month Resistance1* 1.638 1.2497 Resistance2* 1.653 1.2727 EUR/SGD 6-month Chart EUR/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 9 EUR/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3
GBP 26/3/218 BoE announced to keep the monetary policy unchanged as expected in March. Last week, GBPUSD advanced to 1-month high as news stated that the EU and the U.K. have reached a broad agreement on Brexit transition. Last week, GBPUSD once touched 1.4216 levels. The upcoming release will be UK's 4Q GDP final value. 26-Mar 1.822 1.377 Weekly change: -1.5% -1.5% (-) UK Q4 GDP preliminary value rose 1.4% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.8% in previous quarter's advance result High 1.852 1.4144 (+) UK February CPI rose.4% YoY, higher than a decrease of.5% in previous month Low 1.8188 1.371 (+) UK ILO January's 3Mths unemployment rate was at 4.3%, lower than 4.4% in previous month Support1* 1.81 1.368 (-) UK February Nationwide House Prices All Houses rose 2.2% YoY, lower than an increase of 3.2% in previous month Support2* 1.799 1.3442 Resistance1* 1.842 1.442 Resistance2* 1.862 1.431 2.2 2.1 2. 1.9 1.8 GBP/SGD 6-month Chart GBP/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 1.7 9 GBP/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3 NZD RBNZ announced to keep the monetary policy unchanged as expected in March. Last week, RBNZ governor stated that inflation is expected to weaken further in the near term. Last week, NZDUSD traded within the range of.7151-.7282. The upcoming release will be New Zealand's March business confidence index. 26-Mar.959.725 Weekly change: -.96% -.96% (+) New Zealand Q4 GDP rose 2.9% YoY, higher than an increase of 2.7% in previous quarter High.9724.7436 (-) New Zealand Q4 CPI rose 1.6% YoY, lower than an increase of 1.9% in previous quarter Low.9528.7184 Support1*.95.7142 (+) New Zealand Q4 unemployment rate arrived at 4.5%, lower than 4.6% in previous quarter Support2*.942.737 (+) New Zealand February Commodity Price Index arrived at 2.8%, higher than.7% in previous month Resistance1*.97.7394 Resistance2*.981.7541 1.5 1..95.9 NZD/SGD 6-month Chart NZD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.85 9 NZD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3
RMB 26/3/218 PBOC official said the next step in exchange rate reform will be less government intervention in the exchange market and to widen the CNY trading band. Last week, US President signed a tariff on China imports. Last week, USDCNH traded within the range of 6.32-6.344. The upcoming release will be China's March manufacturing PMI. 26-Mar.28 6.357 Weekly change:.19%.19% (~) China Q4 GDP rose 6.8% YoY, same as previous quarter High.2113 6.3626 (+) China February CPI rose 2.9% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.5% in previous month Low.255 6.285 (+) China February Caixin manufacturing PMI arrived at 51.6, higher than 51.5 in previous month Support1*.25 6.368 Support2*.22 6.2571 (+) China December industrial production rose 6.2% YoY, higher than an increase of 6.1% in previous month Resistance1*.211 1.442 Resistance2*.214 1.431.22 RMB/SGD 6-month Chart RMB/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.21.2.19 9 RMB/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3 CAD Bank of Canada maintained interest rate unchaged at 1.25% in the March meeting, in line with expectations. Last week, Canada CPI for February was higher than expected. Last week, USDCAD once dropped to 1.2825 levels. The upcoming release will be Canada's January GDP. ` 26-Mar 1.3 1.284 Weekly change: -.77% -.77% (-) Canada December GDP rose 3.3% YoY, lower than an increase of 3.5% in previous month High 1.568 1.2895 (+) Canada February CPI rose 2.2% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.7% in previous month Low 1.287 1.2445 Support1* 1.2 1.2556 (+) Canada February unemployment rate arrived at 5.8%, lower than 5.9% in previous month Support2* 1.1 1.2275 (-) Canada February Manufacturing PMI arrived at 55.6, lower than 55.9 in previous month Resistance1* 1.48 1.36 Resistance2* 1.67 1.3175 1.15 1.1 1.5 1. CAD/SGD 6-month Chart CAD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average.95 9 CAD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3
JPY 26/3/218 Bank of Japan kept the monetary policy unchanged as expected in January. Last week, with growing concern on trader war, JPY gained support. Last week, USDJPY once dropped to 15.23 levels. The upcoming release will be Japan's February unemployment rate. 26-Mar 1.245 16.2 Weekly change:.77%.77% (+) Japan Q4 GDP rose 2% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.9% in previous quarter High 1.2481 18.94 (+) Japan February CPI nationwide ex fresh food rose 1.5% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.4% in previous month Low 1.2153 15.52 (-) Japan March manufacturing PMI arrived at 53.2, lower than 54.1 in previous month Support1* 1.224 14.85 (~) Japan January Industrial Production fell 6.8% MoM, same as previous month Support2* 1.23 13.48 Resistance1* 1.257 18.27 Resistance2* 1.269 11.32 1.4 JPY/SGD 6-month Chart JPY/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 1.3 1.2 1.1 1. JPY/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 9 6 3 CHF SNB kept its interest rate unchanged in March as expected and said CHF is still overvalued. Last week, market seek for safe haven currency. Last week, USDCHF once dropped to.9458 levels. The upcoming release will be Switzerland's March manufacturing PMI. ` 26-Mar 1.44.942 Weekly change: -.69% -.69% (+) Switzerland Q4 GDP rose 1.9% YoY, higher than an increase of 1.2% in previous quarter High 1.4221.949 (-) Switzerland February CPI rose.6% YoY, lower than an increase of.7% in previous month Low 1.3979.9186 (+) Switzerland February unemployment rate arrived at 2.9%, lower than 3% in previous month Support1* 1.394.9239 (+) Switzerland February Foreign Currency Reserves arrived at CHF 732.8 billion, higher than CHF 732 billion Support2* 1.384.96 in previous month Resistance1* 1.418.9543 Resistance2* 1.432.9668 1.5 CHF/SGD 6-month Chart CHF/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 1.4 1.3 9 CHF/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 6 3
SGD 26/3/218 The Monetary Authority of Singapore announced in October that it would maintain monetary policy unchanged and noted that Singapore's economic growth next year should be robust, but may be slower than this year. Last week, FOMC raised interest rate by 25 basis points as expected, but they did not change the rate hike forecast for this year. Last week, USDSGD traded within the range of 1.316-1.3193. The upcoming release will be Singapore's March PMI. Tehnical Analysis vs USD 26-Mar 1.32 (-) Singapore Q4 GDP final value rose 3.6% YoY, lower than an increase of 5.5% in previous quarter's Weekly change:.28% advance result High 1.33 (+) Singapore February CPI rose.5% YoY, higher than kept flat in previous month Low 1.31 (~) Singapore Q4 unemployment rate arrived at 2.1%, same as previous quarter Support1* 1.385 Support2* 1.2943 (-) Singapore February Non Oil Domestic Exports fell 5.9% YoY, lower than an increase of 12.9% in previous Resistance1* 1.3336 month Resistance2* 1.3445 1.45 USD/SGD 6-month Chart USD/SGD 1-day moving average 2-day moving average 1.4 1.35 1.3 1.25 USD/SGD 6-month 7-day RSI 9 6 3
26/3/218 Important Economic Data Release Source: Bloomberg as of March 26, 218 Reporting Analysts Date Events period Consensus Previous Actual United States 27-Mar-18 Consumer Confidence* Mar 131 13.8-27-Mar-18 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Mar 22% 28% - 28-Mar-18 GDP QoQ (Annualised)* Qtrly 2.7% 2.5% - 28-Mar-18 GDP Price Index Qtrly 2.3% 2.3% - 28-Mar-18 PCE Deflator QoQ Qtrly 1.9% 1.9% 28-Mar-18 Personal Consumption Qtrly 3.8% 3.8% - 28-Mar-18 MBA Mortgage Applications* Weekly -1.1% - 28-Mar-18 Wholesale Inventories Mar.5%.8% - 28-Mar-18 Pending Home Sales MoM Mar 2% -4.7% - 29-Mar-18 U. of Michigan Confidence* Apr 12 12-29-Mar-18 Initial Jobless Claims* Weekly 23K 229K - 29-Mar-18 Continuing Claims Weekly 1865K 1828K - 29-Mar-18 Personal Spending* Mar.2%.2% - 29-Mar-18 Personal Income* Mar.4%.4% - Regional 26-Mar-18 New Zealand Trade Balance* Mar -1M 217M - 26-Mar-18 New Zealand Imports Mar 4.63M 424M - 27-Mar-18 Hong Kong Export YoY % Mar 1% -3% - 27-Mar-18 Hong Kong Import YoY % Mar 7.3% 23.8% - 29-Mar-18 Australia Private Sector Credit MoM% Mar.3%.3% - 29-Mar-18 Australia Private Sector Credit YoY% Mar 4.9% 4.9% - 29-Mar-18 Hong Kong Gov't Monthly Budget Mar 54.69B - 31-Mar-18 China PMI Manufacturing Mar 5.3 - G7 Countries 26-Mar-18 France GDP (QoQ) Qtrly.6%.6% - 26-Mar-18 France GDP (YoY) Qtrly 2.5% 2.5% - 28-Mar-18 Italy Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM) Jan 6.5% - 28-Mar-18 Italy Industrial Order n.s.a. Jan 6.9% - 28-Mar-18 UK Nat'wide House Price sa (MoM)* Mar.2% -.3% - 28-Mar-18 UK Nat'wide House Price nsa (YoY)* Mar 2.6% 2.2% - 29-Mar-18 Canada GDP MoM* Jan.1%.1% - 29-Mar-18 Canada Industrial Product Price MoM Mar.35% 29-Mar-18 Germany Unemployment Change ('s)* Mar -15K -22K - 29-Mar-18 Germany Consumr Price Index (MoM) Mar.5%.5% - 29-Mar-18 Germany Consumr Price Index (YoY) Mar 1.7% 1.4% - 29-Mar-18 Germany Unemployment Rate (s.a.) Mar 5.3% 5.4% - 29-Mar-18 Germany CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) Mar 1.6% 1.2% - 29-Mar-18 Germany CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) Mar.5%.5% - 29-Mar-18 Italy PPI (YoY) Mar.8-29-Mar-18 Japan Retail Trade YoY Mar 1.7% 1.5% - 29-Mar-18 Japan Retail Trade MoM SA Mar.6% -1.6% - 29-Mar-18 UK GDP (QoQ)* Qtrly.4%.4% - 29-Mar-18 UK GDP (YoY)* Qtrly 1.4% 1.4% - 29-Mar-18 UK Mortgage Approvals Mar 66K 67.478K - 3-Mar-18 France Consumer Price Index (YoY) Mar 1.4% 1.2% - 3-Mar-18 France CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) Mar 1.5% 1.3% - 3-Mar-18 Japan Industrial Production (MoM)* Mar 5% -6.8% - 3-Mar-18 Japan Jobless Rate* Mar 2.6% 2.4% - 3-Mar-18 Japan Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY* Mar.9%.9% - 3-Mar-18 Japan Job-to-Applicant Ratio* Mar 1.6% 1.59% - 3-Mar-18 Japan Tokyo CPI YoY Mar 1.3% 1.4% - 3-Mar-18 Japan Housing Starts (YoY) Mar -4.2% -13.2% -
26/3/218 Central Bank Rate Current Prior Date Current Prior Date FED Fund 1.75 1.5 3-May-18 Canada (BOC) 1.25 1.25 18-Apr-18 Europe (ECB).. 26-Apr-18 Japan (BOJ) -.1 -.1 27-Apr-18 UK (BOE).5.5 1-May-18 Malaysia 3.25 3.25 1-May-18 Australia (RBA) 1.5 1.5 3-Apr-18 Taiwan 1.38 1.38 - New Zealand (RBNZ) 1.75 1.75 1-May-18 Indonesia 4.25 4.25 - Please take note that the primary sources of all the charts are from Reuters dated 26 Mar 218 before 9: am Terminology: Support level: Is the currency level where it tends to find support as it is going down i.e. market participants tend to see value at these levels and price is more likely to bounce up than go lower. Resistance level: Is the currency level where it tends to find resistance as it is going up i.e. market participants tend to consider this as a ceiling and prevent prices from going up further. *Please note that the indicative support and resistance level are given for general reference only. Customers should not rely on this information to buy or sell currency. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. The scale is - 1 and typically overbought conditions are indicated by readings >7 and oversold conditions when <3. Moving average: Is an indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a currency s price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations, or noise, that can confuse interpretation. This information is only for a reference and does not represent recommendation from HSBC for customer to buy or sell based on the information provided.customer should not rely on the views or information expressed in this document solely to make investment decisions. HSBC shall not be held liable for damages arising out of any person s reliance upon this information. Customer should make his/her buy and sell decision based on his/her own view. Also, past performance is not indicative of future performance. Disclaimer This document has been prepared for information only. Information contained in this document is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however HSBC does not guarantee its completeness or accuracy. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment or securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. The specific investment objectives, personal situation and particular needs of any person have not been taken in consideration. You should therefore not rely on it as investment advice. Opinions and estimates expressed are subject to change without notice and HSBC expressly disclaims any and all liability for representations and warranties, express or implied, contained herein, or for omissions. All charts and graphs are from publicly available sources or proprietary data. The mention of any security should not be construed as representing a recommendation to buy or sell that security, nor does it represent a forecast on future performance of the security. This document is distributed by HSBC Bank (Singapore) Limited ( HBSP ) pursuant to Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations, to its customers for general reference only. HBSP accepts legal responsibility for the contents of this document, and may be contacted in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Please refer to HBSP s website at www.hsbc.com.sg for its contact details. This document is prepared by The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited ( HBAP ), 1 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong. HBAP is incorporated in Hong Kong and is part of the HSBC Group.