FEMA Modeling Task Force (MOTF) Hurricane Sandy Response MOTF Hurricane Sandy Response Briefing USGS NEIC Monday, May 13th, 2013
Outcome Based Results FEMA s Modeling Task Force On-call, distributed analysis Real-time analysis to affect decisions Civil Air Patrol/NOAA collected 157,000+ images Over 147,000 individual structural assessments 44,000+ applicants received expedited rental assistance Supported multiple interagency programs Ability to Innovate 2
MOTF Aligns to NRCC Organization Mitigation Directorate, Risk Analysis Division Two Regions IV and VIII Three Subject Matter Experts Two Physical Scientists MT Earthquake Program One Regional Geospatial Coordinator (RGC) Eight Analysts GIS, Risk, Vulnerability Situational Awareness Section Chief Geospatial and Technical Group Supervisor Remote Support: Denver, CO GIS Unit Leader Technical Unit Leader Modeling Task Force (MOTF) 3
FEMA Modeling Task Force (MOTF) Overview The FEMA Modeling Task Force (MOTF) has been formally utilized for a number of Level 1 events, most recently Hurricane Sandy but also for Hurricane Isaac and Hurricane Irene. The MOTF plays an important role in coordinating hazard and modeling information from a variety of sources, including other federal agencies, universities, the National Labs, and State and local agencies, to develop consensus for best estimates of impacts before, during, and after events.
Sandy Activation FEMA Modeling Task Force (MOTF) was activated with assistance from the GIO and Future Planning to support the NRCC consistent with the FEMA GeoConops on October 26th MOTF team member working directly with the National Hurricane Center storm surge modeling team in Miami as part of HLT (Oct. 23rd), from RIV in Atlanta supporting the wind loss modeling and the remainder of the team working from FEMA Region VIII in Denver. 5
Hurricane Sandy MOTF Timeline NRCC Activation, USGS MA s HLT Deployment (Oct 23), Hurricane Sandy County Risk Matrix (QPF, Wind loss, CFLA, SLOSH models), MOTF portal Oct 26 High resolution (3 ft LiDAR) observed inundation NYC OEM, Nor easter surge modeling Hybrid hindcast SLOSH, preliminary HWM observations (±150), expedited rental assistance, portal updates Oct 29 Landfall Migration to impact analysis, Hindcast SLOSH, portal updates Nov 1 Nov 5 Field verified inundation (±300 observations), medium resolution (10 meter), portal, expedited assistance, NFIP updates Nov 7 Nov 11 Field verified inundation (±1,000 observations), high resolution, LiDARbased, major portal, expedited assistance, NFIP updates
Individual Assistance Damage Levels Assessment Source Inundation Model to Observations Imagery Assessment IA Inspection (FVL) Applications Affected Slight Minor Major Destroyed Housing Task Force Building Inspection Response Substantial Damage Estimation Debris Estimation
Hurricane Sandy Risk Matrix-Pre-Landfall The relative County risk is based on the following inputs: Precipitation (QPF) High: 8 or greater Medium: 4 to 7 Low: Less than 4 Hurricane Storm Surge and Wind Loss: High: >$100M Medium: $10-$100M Low: <$10M
Hurricane Sandy County Impact Analysis Post landfall, the Risk Matrix evolved into a County Impact Analysis using field verified data. Surge is the primary driver of severe impacts as a result of Hurricane Sandy and the relative impact assessment is summarized as follows:
Hurricane Sandy County Impact Analysis
Extensive metadata and download link: http://184.72.33.183/gisdata/motf /
Hazard Identification Sandy
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Inaccessible Zip + 4 Point Locations High resolution data points, average of 3 households per Zip + 4 in NJ and NY. located in USNG 1km x 1km grid cells with accessibility constraints as a result of significant road closures, or were exposed to >3 (later 5) feet of inundation based on the NHC surge model supplemented with available USGS field observations FEMA expedited $130M in rental payments to 44K applicants, allowed survivors to relocate while waiting for inspection process Saved $4M in inspection costs 15
Recovery Over Time of Inaccessible Zip + 4 16
Recovery of Inaccessible Zip + 4 17
Recovery of Inaccessible Zip + 4 18
Analysis for NFIP Impacts Flood depths assigned to 200,000+ policies Integrated into request to increase borrowing authority $9.7 billion
History of NEIC Collaboration Extensive scenario support (NLE 2011) Development of PAGER action levels Event coordination (San Simeon, Kiholo Bay, Parkfield, Mt Carmel, Haiti, Mineral, etc.) Twitter Earthquake Detector
0 Sh 5min qu 10-20min 40min HA Z PA GE R el im in ar y ar y (a le rt a US GS EN S nd Sh US ak lo ss em es a ) PA p (w GE / f R aul (a t; a Up le d rt di da an tio te Fe d d na lo l e d HA s s da s es ta an ZUS ) ) d Vi los ew se er s s Pr Pr el im in ak ak ep em e ic Oc ap en PA (p cu te GE oi r rs nt & R so m (e ag xp ur ni ce os tu ) ur de e) (U of U, Ea rth ) Earthquake Information Timeline 1hr 2hrs 24hrs Did You Feel It?
Future NEIC Collaboration Extensive scenario support PAGER development building inventory data Event coordination Twitter Earthquake Detector-location, severity information, Tweak the Tweet (TtT)
USGS MA History Mission Assignments: Used for life-saving, lifesustaining, high-priority missions Federal Operations Support Scientific applications can t be done under MA s Must be outside existing authorities Very fast: can be done under verbal's Completed for Irene, Isaac, Minot, etc.
USGS MA Future Prescripted MA s USAR (urban search and rescue) aftershock warning Post event rockfall hazard mitigation
Expediting Assistance in Future Earthquakes Several plausible scenarios demonstrate significant potential IA inspection requirements. 60K were completed for Northridge, 6K for Mineral, +300K for potential scenarios Potential ShakeCast threshold based approach for Zip +4 damage levels Pre-identify vulnerability based on median yearbuilt, Hazus building and code level distributions, and loss ratios
Questions? FEMA MOTF Team: