Long-Term trends for each index remains up and nothing of late has changed that!!! Each index is testing some form of overhead resistance. These are price points where bulls will say No Thank You to selling pressure taking place. NOT a place where a bull would want to see weakness start taking place.
RIGHT CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE CHART ABOVE- Above is our update of the Fibonacci breakouts above 161% Extension levels, based upon 2007 highs/2009 lows. So far, pretty much clean upside action after using old 161% resistance level as new support. As mentioned on the prior page, bulls don t want to see bearish reversals taking place just under long-term resistance line at (2), which could be starting this week.
1-Year Fibonacci 161% Extension Level in play!!! For the past two years, the Power of the Pattern has been sharing how important the 161% extension level off the 2007 highs/2009 lows looked to be for the Dow and S&P (prior chart). Below looks closely at the 161% Extension level, based upon 2016 weekly closing highs/lows. RIGHT CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE CHART ABOVE As mentioned above, two potential Doji Star topping patterns took place the prior two weeks, followed by a large reversal pattern this week at (3). Again, not a price point where bulls want to see bearish reversal taking place.
Nasdaq Long-Term Channel Below looks at the NDX 100 going back to the lows in 2010 RIGHT CLICK TO ENLARGE CHART ABOVE The trend remains up in inside of 6-year rising channel (1) Softness a few weeks back took the index down to testing horizontal and rising support at (2) which held and a rally to new highs then followed. Weekly reversal took place last week in the NDX and weakness has followed. Not a place bulls want to see selling taking place.
Transports- RIGHT CLICK TO ENLARGE CHART BELOW Russell 2000- RIGHT CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE BELOW
Germany (DAX)- Risk On positive message continues RIGHT CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE BELOW France (CAC-40)- RIGHT CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE CHART BELOW France and Germany are both kissing the underside of dual resistance in each chart above. Would send VERY concerning message to bulls if both turn weak at this resistance points!
1999 & 2008 Repeat By Transports? Transports in 1999 broke above 1998 highs and appeared to be heading much higher until.. a reversal took place, support broke and the index fell hard (50%+). Transports in 2007 broke above 2006 highs and appeared to be heading much higher until. a reversal took place, support broke and the index fell hard (50%+). We ve shared this chart several times in the past and below is our current update. The index could be creating a pattern currently, that is very similar to the highs in 1999 and 2008. I ve said this before and I will say this again.this pattern doesn t matter until it matters. The odds are low that it will repeat and be meaningful. If the read would happen to be correct, we all know it could become very important. Bulls would not want to see support give way at (3) with momentum!!!
Equal Weight (RSP) and S&P 500 comparison since 2009 lows. RIGHT CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE CHART ABOVE Risk On trade wants both of these moving higher together. RSP continues to out perform SPY since 2009 levels. RSP has gained 90%+ more than SPY since the 2009 lows. Positive price action taking place for many months. If rising support in each at (1) would be taken out to the downside, would send concerning message to bulls.
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE Index) Below looks at the NYSE index since the 1960 s. We are going to include this broad based index in the Dashboards report going forward. Not many indices are this broad and have this kind of long-term history to chart. NYSE index continues to slowly edge above rising channel (1) at (2), while inside of 35- year rising channel. Bullish message above 11, 400
Debt Update regarding Risk On/Risk Off Message Certain Debt tools have sent quality Risk On & Off messages since the late 1990 s. Below is our weekly update of Junk Bond prices/patterns. RIGHT CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE CHART BELOW Junk is testing breakout overhead resistance for the past few months and so far, no luck per a breakout. This week JNK is declining at (1), with momentum breaking rising support at (2). To send positive message to stocks = Junk bonds push higher To send concerning message to stocks= Junk bonds turn weak/negative divergence with the stock market and breaks below the $35.50 level.
Global Dashboard Chart Patterns- S&P and Russell both kissed underside of overhead resistance of late and have declined a couple of percent. Russell is nearing its rising 200MA line. Bulls would not want to see this ratio break below it. BIG TEST for EFA and EEM, as both are nearing levels where buyers dried up and they peaked numerous times over the past few years. So far this week BOTH have created weekly bearish pattern just below heavy overhead resistance lines!
Notes on price action of Global Dashboard (prior page) S&P 500, Russell & NDX Long-Term trends off 2009 lows remain up (SPY & NDX still above 200MA lines Russell this week is working on breaking below 200MA line Short-Term; August & September are historically weak and so far the month is starting off that way, with selling pressure ramping up this week, especially this week. Emerging Markets (EEM)- EEM trend is up. Rally has it is kissing the underside of heavy resistance, bearish reversal pattern last week, followed by softness this week. EFA Trend remains up. Similar pattern as EEM rally has it is kissing the underside of heavy resistance, bearish reversal pattern last week, followed by softness this week. Crude Oil 9-year trend remains down (lower highs and lower lows) Short term rally saw it come near $50 resistance then it has backed off Gold LT-Trend remains down, testing 6-year falling resistance. Bond Yields- 15-year trend is down. Yields below long-term falling resistance US Dollar 10-Year trend is up. Weakness this year now has it testing the bottom of 24 month trading range, which has been strong support many times over the years.
RSP/SPY ratio testing resistance zone. RIGHT CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE CHART BELOW XLY/XLP Ratio (Discretionary/Staples); RIGHT CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE RSP/SPY has been diverging since 12/2016 at (1). Bearish message now taking place. XLY/XLP ratio creating bearish weekly pattern near all-time high resistance a couple of weeks ago and weakness has followed.
Shoe Box Indicator, High Yield Fund and Scoreboard Shoe Box (SB). Shoe Box trend since last fall is up. Hit all-time highs of late and this week is creating a bearish reversal pattern at (2). One of its larger daily declines in months taking place today. Junk Bonds (Left chart) Stocks bulls want/need to see Junk moving up in price and they are. Junk just under a key Fibonacci retracement level, where bulls DO NOT want to see weakness starting.
Weekly Advance/Decline Near All-Time Highs Above-The NYSE Weekly A/D (Common Stock Only) trend remains up inside of this 6-year rising channel. Positive risk on message continues to be sent by the A/D Line. Below- Daily A/D line reflecting softness of late, breaking below short-term rising support. Short-term caution message to bulls.
One thing that has become popluar the past few years, is the quest to find stocks that yield high dividends. Each week we will update the pattern of Vanguard s High Dividend Stock ETF (VYM). VYM testing old highs, bullish price action continues. RIGHT CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE CHART ABOVE
KIMBLE CHARTING SOLUTIONS CONDITIONS SUMMARY- Shoe Box Indicator High Yield Funds Advance/Decline line Discretionary/Staples RSP/SPY Ratio Bearish Neutral Bullish Diverging from S&P for 9 months, sending short-term bearish message Hitting long-term resistance and a little soft of late SB-Near all-time highs, sideways action past few weeks. Trend is up, near all-time highs Trend is up, Potential reversal pattern two weeks ago at all-time highs Slow money exposure is now 50% long at this time
Heading To Colorado For VacationNext Week- All Reports Will Be Published and Abbreviated GLOBAL DASHBOARD DESCRIPTION Global Dashboard consists of 9 charts ("9 pack") covering four major investment categories including U.S., International, Commodities and Currencies. The purpose is to provide members with a weekly snapshot of a current pattern read of key global markets. This is an excellent tool for people with limited time or desire to make account adjustments or to accommodate trading restrictions in the case of many corporate retirement plans. we want this to be your 28-second advantage to quickly see and understand the chart patterns then make adjustments when Power of the Pattern opportunities materialize. *Ideal Criteria: An investment that is out of favor / unpopular / fallen a great deal is not enough to take action. Our ideal circumstance to go long is an out of favor investment plus any or all of the following: a support line, a falling wedge, at the bottom of a channel or a key Fibonacci support level. The opposite is true for investments that are in favor. Our ideal circumstance to short (score on defense) requires any or all of the following: up against resistance, a rising wedge, at the top of a rising channel or a key Fibonacci resistance level...just because public opinion is popular on a asset/investment, is not enough evidence for taking action. Delivery time for updates:. Our emphasis is on timeliness of quality opportunities over timeliness of updates. We may need Monday to gather current information, chart patterns for opportunities, if any, then we will put together the report. We will be planning on updates to arrive on Tuesdays by 1 p.m. Eastern.
DISCLAIMER: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. However, neither Kimble Charting Solutions, nor Chris Kimble (KCS) nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither KCS nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Chris Kimble or KCS, or anyone related to KCS is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. Best Regards, Chris Kimble Kimble Charting Solutions Kimble Charting Solutions (blog)