Sensex (35907) / Nifty (11017) Finally, the much awaited event Union Budget is a history now and no surprise (considering past couple of days price development), it eventually turned out to be a non-event for the markets. Although, there were few wild swings during the session, the index managed to hold the 11000 mark by concluding the day with a negligible loss. Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart The entire traders / investors fraternity had a close eye on Finance Minister s speech and they did not find any major trigger almost throughout the event. The only eyebrow-raising moment during the day was the comment he made with respect to the Long Term Capital Gain (LTCG) tax. The initial reaction to this announcement was severe as the markets took a nosedive and corrected nearly one and half a percent within a blink of an eye. However, this fear did not last too long as we saw index rebounding sharply to reclaim the 11000 mark. This was probably the result of traders realizing the pros and cons of this introduction. Barring the budget period, we saw good momentum in individual stocks throughout the session. Some corrected sharply and some managed to clock decent gains during the day. Hence, going ahead, it s advisable to keep focusing on individual stocks that are likely to provide better and clearer trading opportunities. As far as index is concerned, at the end, the index remains unmoved on a closing basis and hence, more or less the range remains the same. For the coming session, 10979 10950 would be seen as immediate support; whereas, 11071 followed by 11117 is likely to act as intraday hurdles. Key Levels Support 1 10979 Resistance 1 11071 Support 2 10950 Resistance 2 11117 Nifty Bank Outlook - (27221) On the day of the Union Budget, the Nifty bank index oscillated in a broad range of more than 500 points and ended the session with a loss of 0.58 percent over the previous session's close. Exhibit 2: Nifty Bank Daily Chart If we observe the individual stocks within the sector, it seemed a session with more of stock specific movement rather than the entire sector trending in a particular direction. Although, the PSU Banking names traded with a negative bias throughout the session and the Nifty PSU Bank index lost 2.30 percent yesterday. With no signs of reversal in the Private sector heavyweights, the broader trend of the index continues to remain positive. The lower time frame charts indicate support for the index around 26970 and resistance around 27650. Swing traders can trade with a stock specific approach and look to buy on declines near the mentioned support. Key Levels Support 1 27110 Resistance 1 27470 Support 2 26970 Resistance 2 27650
Comments The Nifty futures open interest has decreased by 2.83% BankNifty futures open interest has increased by 0.27% as market closed at 11016.90 levels. The Nifty February future closed with a premium of 14.40 points against a premium of 27.70 points in last trading session. The March series closed at a premium of 37.05 points. The INDIA VIX has decreased from 15.93 to 14.12. At the same time, the PCR- of Nifty has decreased from 1.30 to 1.21 level. Few of the liquid counters where we have seen high cost of carry are IFCI, MFSL, EQUITAS, ADANIPOWER and GMRINFRA. Nifty Vs Views FIIs continued pouring liquidity in cash market segment to the tune of Rs. 1100 crores. While, they were marginal sellers in index futures with decent amount of fall in open interest, indicating some unwinding took place in previous trading session. On options front, they were net sellers of Rs. 714 crores with rise in. As far as Nifty options activities are concerned, build-up was scattered around 11100-11600 call options; wherein, 11500 strikes added massive positions resulting highest open interest in call options shifting to 11500 strike. On the flip side, we saw addition in 10800-11000 strikes. Maximum concentration of in put option remains intact in 10500 strike. During the last series, we saw good amount of long formation in index futures and we believe decent amount of these positions are still intact. Now, FIIs index futures Long Short Ratio stands at 70%; suggesting majority of their positions are on long side. After relentless selling for the five consecutive months, stronger hands have tuned net buyers in equities. At present, index has an immediate support is around 10900-11000 levels and despite yesterday s intraday fall we could hardly see any relevant unwinding by put writers. Considering the above data points, we would advise traders avoiding any bearish bets unless we see signs of profit booking. Historical Volatility HV M&M 29.55 MRF 35.19 BAJAJFINSV 29.75 JISLJALEQS 72.90 ESCORTS 50.89 Gainers ESCORTS 3642100 22.54 872.95 7.06 CEATLTD 1170750 18.37 1884.95 3.54 BEL 31427550 12.93 161.55-4.40 IDBI 34330000 12.89 63.65 5.61 APOLLOTYRE 11778000 10.94 262.35 3.11 APOLLOHOSP 771000 10.62 1218.55 3.23 CANBK 13017600 9.19 329.90-3.70 DISHTV 50344000 8.43 77.35 3.19 Losers JISLJALEQS 44244000-19.41 126.70-10.04 TORNTPHARM 308000-9.81 1354.90-1.07 MANAPPURAM 29718000-9.30 116.05 3.97 FORTIS 55734000-8.54 132.60-4.87 MINDTREE 1747200-7.73 753.60-1.67 PIDILITIND 1367000-7.01 899.00-0.02 EICHERMOT 258800-6.65 28047.35 3.84 RAMCOCEM 373600-6.04 758.70-0.50 Put-Call Ratio PCR- PCR-VOL NIFTY 1.21 0.88 BANKNIFTY 0.63 0.75 RELIANCE 0.40 0.38 INFY 0.49 0.37 TATAMOTORS 0.54 0.40
FII Statistics for February 01, 2018 Turnover on February 01, 2018 Detail Buy Sell Net Contracts Open Interest Value (in Cr.) Change (%) 4789.12 4957.67 (168.55) 208608 17628.80 (4.23) 192960.51 193674.63 (714.12) 757337 63942.79 1.87 14985.97 14233.13 752.83 1054028 78870.86 0.96 11781.43 11826.86 (45.43) 61434 4728.28 18.12 Instrument No. of Contracts Turnover ( in Cr. ) Change (%) 539158 48630.33 160.43 13207048 1333531.58 266.13 974449 74942.77 30.82 629565 51738.29 53.00 Total 224517.03 224692.29 (175.26) 2081407 165170.73 1.17 TOTAL 15350220 1508842.96 218.32 Nifty Spot = 11016.90 Lot Size = 75 Bull-Call Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Bear-Put Spreads Action Strike Price Risk Reward BEP Buy 11000 149.95 Sell 11100 100.05 49.90 50.10 11049.90 Buy 11000 119.75 Sell 10900 84.25 35.50 64.50 10964.50 Buy 11000 149.95 Sell 11200 62.10 87.85 112.15 11087.85 Buy 11000 119.75 Sell 10800 58.50 61.25 138.75 10938.75 Buy 11100 100.05 Sell 11200 62.10 37.95 62.05 11137.95 Buy 10900 84.25 Sell 10800 58.50 25.75 74.25 10874.25 Note: Above mentioned Bullish or Bearish Spreads in Nifty (February Series) are given as an information and not as a recommendation. Nifty Put-Call Analysis
Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty Constituents Scrips S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 ADANIPORTS 407 418 425 436 444 AMBUJACEM 257 262 266 270 274 ASIANPAINT 1,114 1,134 1,145 1,165 1,177 AUROPHARMA 590 600 616 627 642 AXISBANK 572 583 596 607 620 BAJAJ-AUTO 3,244 3,328 3,375 3,459 3,506 BAJFINANCE 1,596 1,663 1,711 1,778 1,827 BPCL 476 483 489 496 501 BHARTIARTL 422 430 439 447 455 INFRATEL 338 342 348 353 359 BOSCHLTD 19,160 19,339 19,479 19,658 19,798 CIPLA 571 579 588 596 605 COALINDIA 286 291 296 301 306 DRREDDY 2,107 2,132 2,179 2,204 2,251 EICHERMOT 26,102 27,075 27,687 28,660 29,273 GAIL 469 478 487 495 504 HCLTECH 944 964 990 1,010 1,036 HDFCBANK 1,967 1,979 1,997 2,009 2,027 HDFC 1,915 1,941 1,958 1,985 2,002 HEROMOTOCO 3,672 3,702 3,723 3,754 3,775 HINDALCO 244 250 255 261 266 HINDPETRO 378 385 397 405 417 HINDUNILVR 1,335 1,353 1,369 1,387 1,403 IBULHSGFIN 1,268 1,323 1,368 1,423 1,468 ICICIBANK 337 341 349 353 361 IOC 405 411 417 423 429 INDUSINDBK 1,698 1,747 1,782 1,831 1,866 INFY 1,101 1,123 1,140 1,162 1,180 ITC 255 265 278 288 301 KOTAKBANK 1,093 1,107 1,119 1,133 1,145 LT 1,379 1,417 1,444 1,482 1,508 LUPIN 832 846 866 880 900 M&M 749 774 788 813 828 MARUTI 9,174 9,288 9,426 9,540 9,678 NTPC 166 168 169 170 171 ONGC 186 190 199 203 212 POWERGRID 187 191 193 197 199 RELIANCE 915 929 951 965 987 SBIN 297 302 309 314 322 SUNPHARMA 531 543 561 573 592 TCS 3,038 3,088 3,139 3,189 3,240 TATAMOTORS 383 388 396 401 409 TATASTEEL 666 681 697 712 728 TECHM 600 606 613 618 625 ULTRACEMCO 4,311 4,351 4,388 4,428 4,465 UPL 719 739 755 775 792 VEDANTA 323 332 339 349 356 WIPRO 294 297 303 307 312 YESBANK 345 353 360 367 375 ZEEL 579 587 594 602 609
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