3Q17 UNITED STATES MULTIHOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

Similar documents
4Q 2018 UNITED STATES MULTIFAMILY CAPITAL MARKETS REPORT

4Q 2018 UNITED STATES MULTIFAMILY CAPITAL MARKETS REPORT

2Q17 UNITED STATES MULTIHOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

3Q17 UNITED STATES CAPITAL MARKETS REPORT

Fisher Center-Real Estate & Economics Symposium. November 19 th, 2018

TEXAS MULTIFAMILY FOLLOW THE MONEY. THE CAPITAL MARKETS PERSPECTIVE Jeanette I. Rice, Americas Head of Investment Research February 12, 2016

1Q16 UNITED STATES MULTIHOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

Capital Market Update. February 10, 2011 Marc Louargand, Ph.D., CRE, FRICS Principal SALTASH PARTNERS LLC investing in American ingenuity

Office-Using Jobs and Net Migration Point to Continued Strength

State of the U.S. Multifamily Market. Q Review and Forecast

WA S H I N G TO N / BALT I M O R E

Multifamily Outlook. United States Fall 2014

Strong Investor Demand but Policy Concerns Persist. The Nature of Health Insurance is Shifting.

CBRE CAP RATE SURVEY. A CBRE Publication. First Half Click to Enter

Multifamily Debt Market

Econometric Advisors APARTMENT OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK Q4 2017

COMMERCIAL. first look

ZipRealty, Inc. Supplemental Data Reclassification of Consolidated Statement of Operations

U.S. Investment Outlook

Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2014

APARTMENT TRENDS. U.S. Economic and Multi-Family Outlook. Special Client Webcast May 31, 2006

CAPITALIZATION RATES BY PROPERTY TYPE

CCRSI RELEASE APRIL 2014 (With data through FEBRUARY 2014)

Metropolitan Area Statistics (4Q 2012)

Multifamily Investing: Expectations, Realities, Assessment of Conventional Wisdoms

CCRSI RELEASE JANUARY 2014 (With data through NOVEMBER 2013)

PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Selected Large Metro Areas 12 Months Ending August 2017

State of the Office Market

Research. Absorption strong as demand outpaces completions NATIONAL 3Q17 OFFICE MARKET. Current Conditions

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE PRICE RECOVERY ACCELERATES IN MAY

THE NATIONAL ECONOMY. Source: Delta Associates; October 2018.

Perspectives on U.S. real estate investment

U.S. Property Markets Shake Off Slowdown and Power On

2019 Outlook. January

Deutsche Bank Global Industrials and Basic Materials Conference June 14, 2012

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE PRICES MIXED: GENERAL COMMERCIAL SECTOR GAINS MOMENTUM WHILE INVESTMENT GRADE SEES SEASONAL DIP

PRESS RELEASE. Home Prices Continue Climbing in June 2013 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

CCRSI RELEASE OCTOBER 2014 (With data through August 2014)

The Housing Market and the Macroeconomy. Karl E. Case. University of North Carolina February 18, 2010

2015 REAL ESTATE ECONOMIC FORECAST The National Economy and What It Means For Real Estate

Multifamily Investment Outlook. United States Q3 2015

Home Prices Extend Gains According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

MEGATREND 1: WAGE GROWTH IS FLAT, BUT DISCRETIONARY INCOME IS UP

About KBS. One of the Top Office Owners Globally National Real Estate Investor, 4 th Quarter 2017*

U.S. ECONOMIC & PROPERTY MARKET PERSPECTIVE

U.S. Commercial Real Estate Valuation Trends

Observations on Financial Stability Concerns for Monetary Policymakers

US Hotel Industry Overview. Chris Crenshaw

State Of The U.S. Industrial Market: 2017 Q2

U.S. CAPITAL MARKETS MARKETVIEW FIGURES Q1 2016

Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2012

DALLAS-FORT WORTH METRO

LAS VEGAS LEADS PRICE GAINS IN JUNE ACCORDING TO S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX

COMPOSITE PRICE INDICES FOR COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SOARED IN 2015

Struggling to Escape the Fallout of the Great Recession MARISA Di NATALE, MANAGING DIRECTOR

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Freddie Mac Community Lender Presentation State of AAPI Housing August 23 rd, 2016

Metro Washington, DC State of the Market

Office. Office. IRR Viewpoint 2015

TAMPA / WESTSHORE MULTI-FAMILY UPDATE

S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER NATIONAL HOME PRICE NSA INDEX CONTINUES STEADY GAINS IN OCTOBER

SEPTEMBER S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER NATIONAL HOME PRICE NSA INDEX UP 6.2% IN LAST 12 MONTHS

Online Appendix for Inferring Latent Social Networks from Stock Holdings

US CAPITAL MARKETS REPORT

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE PRICING LEAPS FORWARD IN AUGUST BOOSTED BY STRONG NET ABSORPTION IN FIRST HALF OF YEAR

GLOBAL INSTABILITY LEADS TO INCREASED CAUTION; CAP RATE COMPRESSION SLOWS

Pace of Decline in Home Prices Moderates as the First Quarter of 2012 Ends, According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

equity advisory services

STRONG MARKET FUNDAMENTALS SUPPORT BROAD PRICE GAINS IN MAY

Strong performance for real estate assets

PRESS RELEASE. Home Price Gains Continue to Moderate According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

State of the Banking Industry

equity advisory services

All Three Home Price Composites End 2011 at New Lows According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Highlands Spin-Off & Student Housing Transaction Webcast. January 18, 2016

The Five Retail Trends to Watch in January 14, 2015

Joseph L. Carter Executive Vice President November 2014

Hotel Valuation and Transaction Trends For the U.S. Lodging Industry

Seizing investment opportunities in the Americas. We know how.

Was it all for N 0 u g h t? The 00 Decade and the Year Ahead. Tony Pierson Cornerstone Real Estate Advisers LLC. Real Estate Conference

Discussion of: Can Securitization Work? Lessons from the U.S. REIT Market

CITIES IN THE WEST: SEATTLE, LAS VEGAS AND SAN FRANCISCO LEAD GAINS IN S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDICES

COMMERCIAL PRICING SURGE

UBS Leveraged Finance Conference

Strong conclusion to 2015, some caution ahead in 2016

Addendum to: The Community Reinvestment Act: A Welcome Anomaly in the Foreclosure Crisis

Nationally, Home Prices Went Up in the Second Quarter of 2011 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

The Economic Backdrop When will this cycle end?

Regional Snapshot: The Cost of Living in Metro Atlanta

US CAPITAL TRENDS INDUSTRIAL

PRESS RELEASE. Widespread Slowdown in Home Price Gains According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Financial Strength and Operational Excellence

Supplemental Financial Information Q2 2018

S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER NATIONAL INDEX SETS 30-MONTH ANNUAL RETURN HIGH

GDP projections for major economies

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Ann Marie Gorden/Robert Nihen

20 Years of Success. High Road Union Jobs Solid Fund Performance. quality assets strong performance union jobs

MULTI-HOUSING PULSE SUR 512 AUSTIN, TX ON THE MARKET

Real Estate Market Update

Transcription:

3Q17 UNITED STATES MULTIHOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW

TABLE OF CONTENTS 3 Key Takeaways 4 Historical Sales Volume 5 Sales Volume Distribution 6 Top Markets by Sales Volume 7 Property Performance 8 Historical Yields 9 Cap Rates by Metro 10 Historical Price Per Unit 11 Capital Flows 12 Top Buyers 13 Top Sellers 14 Global Multihousing Pricing 15 International Capital Buyers 16 International Capital by Region 17 International Capital Distribution 18 Historical Rent Growth 19 Rent Growth by Metro 20 Historical Supply and Demand 21 Supply and Demand by Metro 22 Historical Occupancy Rate 23 Mortgage Debt Outstanding 24 Mortgage Maturities 2

KEY TAKEAWAYS Sales Volume Sales volume for the past 12 months totaled $148.5 billion with quarterly volume reaching $39.3 billion, representing an 11.1% quarter-over-quarter increase and 4.0% year-over-year growth. Investors continue to pour capital into top-tier secondary markets such as Atlanta, Dallas and Denver. Cap Rates Cap rates remain flat year-over-year at 5.0% for institutional-quality assets. The third quarter represents the tightest spread between major markets and secondary markets as yield-driven capital continues to flow into secondary and tertiary markets. Rent Growth Nationwide rent growth remains flat at 2.3% while still positive. Western metros such as Phoenix, Sacramento, San Diego and Seattle continue to lead the nation in rent growth as they benefit from strong demographic and economic tailwinds. Supply and Demand New supply is anticipated to peak in 2017 with over 389,000 units delivered throughout the United States. This cycle has been heavily weighted toward urban infill and luxury product compared with the previous cycle which was dominated by Class B suburban assets. International Capital International capital sales volume rose to $11.3 billion over the past 12 months. High net worth and sovereign wealth funds are increasingly growing their multihousing portfolios through indirect investment vehicles and joint ventures with domestic sponsors. Debt Markets Debt outstanding increased $21.7 billion to $1.2 trillion with Agency & GSE lending accelerating 2.5% quarter-over-quarter compared to the broader market of 1.8%. Debt capital remains plentiful for well-positioned assets despite a slowdown in the CMBS market. 3

HISTORICAL SALES VOLUME United States; Dollars in Billions Quarterly sales volume rose to $39.3 billion, representing an 11.1% quarter-over-quarter growth and a 4.0% year-over-year increase with 12-month sales volume totaling $148.5 billion. Additionally, the third quarter sales volume of $39.3 billion is the highest third quarter volume on record. $200 $160 $120 Record 3Q Volume $39.3B $80 $40 $0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 12-Month Totals Quarterly Totals 4

SALES VOLUME DISTRIBUTION By Market Tier and Region; 12-Month Totals Sales volume in major markets declined from 36.7% to 28.9% over the past 12 months, as investors continued to seek out higher yields from assets in secondary and tertiary markets, predominantly in the Southeast and West. Major Markets 28.9% Mid-Atlantic 8.1% Midwest 8.9% Northeast 11.9% Tertiary Markets 15.0% Sales Volume by Market Tier West 23.2% Sales Volume by Region Southeast 24.6% Secondary Markets 56.1% Southwest 23.3% 5

TOP MARKETS BY SALES VOLUME 12-Month Totals; Dollars in Billions Sales volume remains highest among supply-constrained major markets such as New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. as well as emerging gateway markets such as Atlanta, Dallas, Denver and Seattle. San Antonio Tampa Portland Las Vegas San Diego Orlando Boston Austin Miami Chicago Houston Phoenix San Francisco Seattle Denver Washington, D.C. Dallas-Ft. Worth Atlanta Los Angeles New York City $2.0 $2.5 $2.7 $2.7 $2.8 $3.1 $3.3 $3.5 $4.3 $4.3 $4.7 $4.8 $4.9 $5.4 $5.7 $6.2 $8.2 $8.3 $11.2 $13.1 6

PROPERTY PERFORMANCE By NCRIEF Region; Annualized 12-Month Returns Total returns for multihousing were 6.22% on an annual basis throughout the United States greater than hotel, office and retail during the same time period. In particular, Western metros featuring above-average rent growth helped fuel the outperformance. MIDWEST WEST 8.35% 4.53% EAST 5.28% SOUTH 5.31% Source: Newmark Knight Frank Research, NCREIF, Real Capital Analytics 7

6.7% 6.1% 5.7% 5.0% 4.8% 4.9% 5.3% 6.0% 5.5% 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% HISTORICAL YIELDS Yields of institutional-grade multihousing product remained flat year-over-year, although third-quarter 2017 represents the tightest spreads among major markets and secondary markets since 2010. 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.1% 4.5% 4.0% 3.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 United States Major Markets Secondary Markets 8

CAP RATES BY METRO Overall yields have largely remained unchanged for the past 24 months, although many secondary markets have experienced slight compression resulting from additional capital flows into these markets as well as a lack of for sale opportunities. SF 4.0% SJ 4.2% SAC 5.1% POR 4.8% LA 4.2% SEA 4.6% LV 5.2% SLC 5.4% PHX 5.1% DEN 4.9% WIC 5.9% MIN 5.0% OKC 5.5% KC 5.4% CHI 5.1% STL 5.7% LR 6.0% MEM 5.7% IND 5.6% COL 5.7% NSH 5.3% BIR 5.8% PIT 5.5% CHA 5.1% ATL 5.0% RD 4.9% CHR 5.4% BOS 4.5% NYC 3.9% PHI 5.4% DC 4.9% SD 4.3% ATX 5.1% DFW 5.1% HOU 5.3% JAX 5.5% TAM 5.4% ORL 5.2% SFL 4.8% SA 5.4% 9

$93 $97 $118 $126 $131 $131 $123 $133 $137 $135 $142 $144 $152 $166 $173 $183 HISTORICAL PRICE PER UNIT Dollars in Thousands Year-over-year, the average price per unit in the United States grew 5.8%. Despite a slowdown in volume among major markets, pricing per unit experienced strong growth of 10.4%, while secondary markets grew a sturdy 2.7%. $375 $300 $319 $225 $150 $146 $75 $0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 United States Major Markets Secondary Markets 10

CAPITAL FLOWS Select Investor Groups; Dollars in Billions Year-to-date, private buyers such as owner/operators and high-net-worth individuals and families are the only investor groups to be net buyers. PRIVATE INSTITUTIONS $100 $50 $50 $25 $0 $0 -$50 -$25 -$100 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -$50 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Acquisitions Dispositions Net Investment Acquisitions Dispositions Net Investment 11

TOP BUYERS 12-Month Totals; Dollars in Millions Large-scale portfolio transactions accelerated 63.0% year-over-year. Greystar, GIC and other top buyers have focused on growing their portfolios by buying in bulk, while groups such as Cortland Partners and FPA Multifamily have mostly purchased individual deals. $7,500 Individual Portfolio & Entity $6,000 $4,500 $3,000 $1,500 $0 Greystar GIC APG Group Ivanhoe Cambridge MAA Starwood Capital Blackstone Rockpoint Group Cortland Partners Mapletree TruAmerica Multifamily FPA Guardian Life Scion Group Multifamily CPP Investment Board 12

TOP SELLERS 12-Month Totals; Dollars in Millions While the top buyers far outpaced the top sellers, many of the top sellers were among the past 12 months entity-level transactions, such as Monogram s sale to Greystar for $3.0 billion and Post Properties sale to MAA for $3.9 billion. $7,500 Individual Portfolio & Entity $6,000 $4,500 $3,000 $1,500 $0 Monogram Res Trust Post Properties Milestone REIT Starwood Capital Bridge Investment Fairfield Residential Blackstone Waterton Associates PGIM Investors Management JP Morgan Kayne Anderson AVR Realty Harbor Group Holland Partners 13

GLOBAL MULTIHOUSING PRICING Cap Rates and Price Per Unit; 12-Month Totals On a risk-adjusted basis, the United States continues to offer competitive yields and resilient total returns compared with other regions of the world. EMEA United States 5.0% $182,804 5.0% $194,109 Asia Pacific 4.8% $324,676 14

INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL BUYERS Top Countries of Origin and Buyers; 12-Month Totals International capital sales volume rose to $11.3 billion over the past 12 months, as overseas investors continue to seek out well-positioned assets in primary and secondary markets. Invested Capital - $250M+ Akelius Residential AB Sweden Other 6.6% Canada 44.6% Amitim APG Group AXA Group Brookfield Asset Management Israel Netherlands France Canada Switzerland 2.7% Sweden 3.9% Top Countries by Sales Volume CAPSSA CPP Investment Board GIC Ivanhoe Cambridge France Canada Singapore Canada France 7.3% Manulife Financial Mapletree Investments Canada Singapore Menora Mivtachim Israel Israel 15.4% Singapore 19.5% Milestone Apartment REIT Morguard North American Residential REIT Psagot Canada Canada France Pure Multi-Family REIT Canada Starlight Investments Canada 15

$774 $501 $1,186 $1,054 $438 $1,411 $906 $4,829 $802 $2,185 $923 $1,731 $4,295 $5,018 $2,830 INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL BY REGION Past 5 Years; Dollars in Millions Multihousing has benefited from high-net-worth families and sovereign wealth funds shifting requirements from trophy offices and hotels. Year-to-date, the majority of investment from these groups has been through indirect investment vehicles and joint ventures with domestic sponsors. EUROPE MIDDLE EAST ASIA PACIFIC 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 16

INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL DISTRIBUTION Top Destinations; 12-Month Totals While major markets have historically attracted the most capital from overseas investors, high-quality secondary markets such as Atlanta, Austin, Dallas, Denver and Miami have seen over $250 million invested in the past 12 months. BY MARKET TIER As a % of Cross-Border Capital SEA $82M BOS $227M MAJOR MARKETS 38.3% POR $127M DEN $391M CHI $108M NASH $47M CHA $189M NYC $910M DC $100M SECONDARY & TERTIARY 61.7% BY REGION As a % of Cross-Border Capital MID-ATLATNIC 11.1% LA $195M PHX $153M AUS $445M DFW $350M ATL $630M TB $157M ORL $245M S. FL $267M MIDWEST 5.8% NORTHEAST 14.8% SOUTHEAST 33.9% SOUTHWEST 25.2% WEST 9.2% 17

HISTORICAL RENT GROWTH Annual Effective Rent Annual rent growth remains flat at 2.3%. While more modest than in previous years, growth remains near long-term averages and is still trending in a positive direction. Rents are projected to increase in the coming years, as new supply levels off. $1,500 7.5% $1,200 4.5% $900 1.5% $600-1.5% $300-4.5% $0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Effective Rent Effective Rent Growth -7.5% Source: Newmark Knight Frank Research, Axiometrics 18

RENT GROWTH BY METRO Year-over-Year Change Western metros such as Phoenix, Sacramento, San Diego and Seattle continue to lead the nation in rent growth as they continue to benefit from strong demographic tailwinds paired with above-average job growth. 10.0% 8.0% 7.4% 6.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.7% 3.6% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0% 0.0% Source: Newmark Knight Frank Research, Axiometrics 19

HISTORICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND United States New supply is anticipated to peak in 2017 with over 389,000 units delivered throughout the United States. This cycle has been heavily weighted toward urban infill and luxury product compared with the previous cycle which was dominated by Class B suburban assets. 500,000 2.5% 400,000 2.0% 300,000 1.5% 200,000 1.0% 100,000 0.5% 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 New Supply (Left Axis) Absorption (Left Axis) Inventory Growth (Right Axis) 0.0% Source: Newmark Knight Frank Research, Axiometrics 20

SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY METRO Select Markets; Year-to-Date New supply outweighs absorption in the vast majority of markets. However, the underlying fundamentals for multihousing assets remain strong with rental growth expected to rise nationally in 2018 and 2019. 30,000 37,500 24,000 30,000 18,000 22,500 12,000 15,000 6,000 7,500 0 0 New Supply (Left Axis) Absorption (Right Axis) Source: Newmark Knight Frank Research, Axiometrics 21

HISTORICAL OCCUPANCY RATE United States Strong demand nationwide continues to push occupancy rates to historically high levels. As of third-quarter 2017, the occupancy rate stands 100 basis points above the long-term average of 94.0%. 96.0% 95.0% 95.0% 94.0% Long-Term Average = 94.0% 93.0% 92.0% 91.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Newmark Knight Frank Research, Axiometrics 22

$91,676 $70,523 $41,191 $40,567 $398,495 $553,261 MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING By Group Multihousing debt outstanding rose $21.7 billion for the quarter, with Agency and GSE seeing their total debt outstanding rise to $553.3 billion, representing a 2.5% quarterly growth compared with the broader market increase of 1.8%. $600,000 Dollars in Millions Other 3.4% Agency & GSE 46.3% $500,000 CMBS 3.4% $400,000 Life Co's 5.9% State & Local Gov't 7.7% Debt Outstanding by Group As a Percentage of Total $300,000 $200,000 Bank & Thrift 33.3% $100,000 $0 Agency & GSE Bank & Thrift State & Local Gov't Life Co's CMBS Other Source: Newmark Knight Frank Research, Mortgage Bankers Association, Real Capital Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank 23

MORTGAGE MATURITIES By Lender Type; Dollars in Billions Mortgage maturities are expected to rise to $114.8 billion, up from $102.0 billion the previous year, representing a 12.5% increase year-over-year. $140 $120 $100 $69.7 $80 $60 $40 $20 $35.1 $31.3 $3.1 $2.9 $10.4 $5.2 $21.7 $24.7 $38.4 $3.3 $9.3 $28.9 $61.8 $66.4 $49.6 $53.2 $54.8 $54.9 $58.2 $44.8 $40.2 $4.5 $3.4 $3.7 $4.0 $4.0 $3.8 $3.9 $4.4 $4.4 $8.1 $8.6 $10.2 $10.4 $21.2 $12.8 $5.9 $14.9 $15.7 $32.5 $33.1 $33.0 $31.9 $34.2 $29.0 $26.6 $23.9 $27.3 $66.8 $4.2 $5.4 $41.8 $4.6 $3.5 $49.2 $0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Banks CMBS Life Co's Other Source: Newmark Knight Frank Research, Federal Reserve Bank, Trepp 24

New York City HEADQUARTERS 125 Park Avenue New York, NY 10017 212.372.2000 Blake Okland Vice Chairman, Head of US Multifamily ARA, A Newmark Company 704.379.1987 okland@aranewmark.com Jeff Day Chief Executive Officer Berkeley Point Capital 301.3474850 jeff.day@berkpoint.com Jonathan Mazur Senior Managing Director, National Research Newmark Knight Frank 212.372.2154 jmazur@ngkf.com Michael Wolfson Associate Director, Capital Markets Research Newmark Knight Frank 212.372.2453 mwolfson@ngkf.com Newmark Knight Frank Research Reports are also available at www.ngkf.com/research All information contained in this publication is derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable. However, Newmark Knight Frank (NKF) has not verified any such information, and the same constitutes the statements and representations only of the source thereof, and not of NKF. Any recipient of this publication should independently verify such information and all other information that may be material to any decision that recipient may make in response to this publication, and should consult with professionals of the recipient s choice with regard to all aspects of that decision, including its legal, financial, and tax aspects and implications. Any recipient of this publication may not, without the prior written approval of NKF, distribute, disseminate, publish, transmit, copy, broadcast, upload, download, or in any other way reproduce this publication or any of the information it contains. www.aranewmark.com