Salford City Council State of the City 2016 Narrative Summary
1. Overview 1.1. Methodology 1.1.1. There are three alternative but related population projections / forecasts available for the City of Salford. They are based on different methodologies and there are strengths and weaknesses associated with each. i. ONS 2011 based sub-national population projection. ii. City council forecast iii. Greater Manchester Forecast Model (GMFM) Forecast 1.1.2. The following headlines have been arrived at by consideration of the main demographic and socioeconomic trends affecting Salford s population. Using data from all three of the above sources, combined with other local intelligence, we illustrate how the population of Salford may change in both the near future and longer term (2021 and beyond). Data were correct as of July 2016 when the report was prepared. 1.2. Supplementary sections 1.2.1. Additional data is contained in a supplementary data compendium that provides the evidence to support these headlines. This demonstrates in more detail how Salford has changed since 2001 and how it may change in future. 1.3. Caveats 1.3.1. Historical trends: Some of the data presented in this document are extrapolated from trends seen over a specific time period prior to this report being written. The trend has then been applied to the current population to estimate the situation in the future. Therefore, there is an assumption that the trend will continue unchanged in the future and this should be borne in mind when interpreting the data. 1.3.2. Complex relationships exist between data sets: Many of the factors examined are interrelated and therefore the true effect on a specific aspect of data is difficult to predict. A change to one aspect, for example unemployment, may have wide reaching effects on many others like commuting, health, migration etc. 1.3.3. Uncertainties: The data do not account for uncertainties that have arisen since the data was collected, or that may emerge in the future, such as planning restrictions, neighbouring area growth (e.g. in the rest of Greater Manchester) or national policies etc. 1.3.4. Data Currency: The data were up to date at the time of the latest annual releases. There may be more recent data that have been made available since this time. This report will be revised on an annual basis to take account of new data and key messages may therefore change in future.
2. Headlines 2.1. Economic Growth 2.1.1. Salford has seen, and will continue to see, increasing economic growth. 2.1.2. Over the past five year there has been 1.3 billion of private sector investment and 425 million public sector investment in Salford. Since 2011 business Gross Value Added (GVA) in Salford grew by over 1bn and is forecast to grow by a similar amount to 2021. 2.1.3. The overall number of businesses, in Salford grew by 1,700 (22%) between 2010 and 2015. This was mainly through increases in small businesses (<10 employees). This is set to continue with a projected 8% growth in commercial floor space and total jobs are forecast to double the increase of the previous five years (12% increase to 2021), which is more than GM and UK. 2.1.4. Local green space audit has identified 21% (2,054 hectares) of the total land area of the city, of which over half is green space freely accessible to the general public, comparing well with neighbouring local authorities. Incidents of violent crime per 1000 population are lower than average for England although crime has hot spots around the central areas of Salford. 2.1.5. How will the Local Plan capture the implications of this economic growth in planning for future businesses and houses? How does Salford continue to deliver as part of the Greater Manchester Strategy? 2.2. Population Growth 2.2.1. Salford s population is increasing rapidly with the age and ethnicity make-up changing. 2.2.2. In 2014 Salford s population was 242,000; increasing by 12% since 2001. The population is expected to grow by a further 5% to 2021. Households in Salford are set to increase in parallel rising by 11% from 109,000 in 2015 to 122,000 in 2025. The percentage population and household increases are forecast to be greater than GM and England. The described economy and business growth offers the infrastructure to support this. 2.2.3. Ordsall ward is expected to have the largest population growth, increasing by one quarter to 2019. Irwell Riverside follows with 9%, while Broughton, Eccles, Langworthy, Walkden North and Walkden South are expected to see smaller levels of population growth. 2.2.4. Over the next five years to 2021 the groups which will have the highest projected increases in Salford population are children age 5-10 (8%, 1,500) and 11-15 (19%, 2,300). Households with dependent children will similarly increase (by 8,000 or 29% to 2037). There are projected declines for ages 16 19 (-7%) and 20 29 (-1.9%) by 2021. The decrease in proportion of population over 65 between 2001 to 2010 is starting to reverse with both older people and working age adults projected to increase by around 5% and 3% respectively. Households with those age 85+ will almost double for Salford to but treble for England. 3
2.2.5. Ethnic diversity is increasing rapidly. The number belonging to a BME group trebled between 2001 and 2011 rising from 5% to 14%. The population of Jewish religion increased by nearly 50% (to 3%) in this time period and those reporting Muslim religion increased 3-fold to 2.5%. 2.2.6. Although a robust projection is not made it is likely BME numbers will continue to increase. Half of the population change between 2013 and 2014 was due to international migration and only 6% UK migration. It is projected that increases from international migration will remain steady over the next few years however the overall net impact of migration to increasing population in Salford is slowing as natural change (births minus deaths) increases. 2.2.7. What will the Council and its partners need to consider for neighbourhoods where population growth will be high? How will social cohesion, housing, health and school services be affected? 2.3. Deprivation and Poverty 2.3.1. Deprivation and poverty levels are high but showing improvement. 2.3.2. Salford is 22nd most deprived of the 326 local authority districts in England, an improvement of 4 places since 2010. Family poverty has concurrently declined by 3.3% between 2010 and 2013 as has mortgage repossession claims (down by one third between 2011 and 2014). These are all signs of deprivation beginning to improve however internal differences remain stark. 70% of the Salford population live in areas classified as highly deprived, but 5% of the population live in wards amongst least deprived in the country. Salford has the second highest proportion of primary school children eligible for free school meals in GM, at 24%, one and a half times the England average. 2.3.3. Will continuing inward migration of affluent communities exacerbate existing inequalities in outcomes? Are we doing enough to make sure that the average level is brought up by improvements across the population, not just in specific groups? 2.4. Education and Skills 2.4.1. Salford residents have low levels of qualifications and skills compared to England, which is associated with poverty. 2.4.2. When leaving primary school (Key Stage 2) the proportion of pupils achieving a combined Level 4+ in English and maths has been improving since 2012. It was 83% in 2015 (above the national average of 80%). Just under half of pupils then achieve 5+ GCSEs (incl Maths and English) which is significantly lower (9%) than England. At age 16 to 18 year 92% are in some form of employment, education or training. The 8% which are not is over a third higher than England. 2.4.3. Over a quarter of adults have no qualifications (27%) compared to 25% for GM. Similarly nearly one in ten adults in Salford claim incapacity benefit which is one third higher than England. Unemployment is forecast to remain stable to 2021. For those employed average salaries are nearly one quarter lower than the average for England. These issues of lower skill levels, income, worklessness and benefit dependency link to the one quarter of households 4
with children living in poverty. Net commuting into Salford is set to continue to increase (7,000 to 9,000, 3rd highest in GM), which may result in more non Salford residents working in Salford. 2.4.4. The types of industries in which people are employed in Salford are set to continue to change. During 2016-2021 the number of jobs in primary and manufacturing sectors is expected to decrease, whilst business & finance will be a large growth sector with 3,800 extra jobs and the highest growth rate expected in science & research & development at 14% more jobs. Some of the within these sectors will be in Clerical and Services Related (800 extra jobs) but Culture, Media and Sports Occupations are expected to see the biggest rate of growth at 10%. By 2021 the biggest occupations are forecast to be Administrative Occupations (15,500), Elementary Occupations: Clerical and Services related (12,300), and Business and Public Service Professionals (9,800). 2.4.5. Will current residents have the skills required to meet the needs of this development of economy and business? Will Salford young people be able to access the jobs at the higher end of the skills market e.g. in finance, science and development, and culture, media and sport? 2.5. Housing 2.5.1. Housing is growing to accommodate the population growth. 2.5.2. Between 2005 and 2015 there were 9000 new Salford dwellings of which 55% were in Ordsall ward. It is estimated that there will be just over 21,000 new dwellings built over the next decade, giving a yearly average four times greater than that seen over the last five years. 73% are expected to be apartments and 27% houses, with the main concentrations of new accommodation in Ordsall and Irwell Riverside. Overcrowding (insufficient rooms) increased by 70% between 2001 and 2011. Nearly three quarters of housing stock is private; up to 97% in Worsley. 2.5.3. Households with dependent children are a large part of the increase in population and increases in births (natural population change) is estimated to form a larger component of change in 2021 than in 2015. These projections indicate a need for family housing. 2.5.4. How will the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework affect housing supply? What other factors will affect housing stock over the coming years? Has the City got a robust plan to build different types of housing to satisfy a range of needs (e.g. for singles, for families)? 2.6. Health and wellbeing 2.6.1. High levels of deprivation and poverty are linked to Salford residents experiencing health and wellbeing that is worse than the national average. 2.6.2. Life expectancy is increasing, but for women is 2.5 years less than the England average, for men 2.8 years less. Male life expectancy in Salford is 76.7 years and female life expectancy is 80.7 in 2012/14. The life expectancy gap within the City is reducing. The difference between areas of the city is currently around 11 years for females and 14 years for males. 5
2.6.3. 24% of Salford residents smoke compared to 18% in England and smoking related deaths are 43% higher for Salford than England. Similarly admissions to hospital which are alcohol related are one third higher (954/100,000) than for England (645/100,000). Almost one in ten reception age children are obese in Salford which is similar to England. However, when children reach year six, obesity levels increase to 21.1%, which is significantly higher than England (18.9%). 2.6.4. These lifestyle factors are risks for early death from Cardiovascular Disease, Respiratory Disease and cancer which all have significantly higher early death rates in Salford than England. 2.6.5. Forecasts suggest increases of between 3-6% for adult physical and learning disabilities with the largest increases in serious physical disability (6.8%). For older people dementia is projected to rise by 9.1%, with similar increases in those who are unable to manage self-care or domestic tasks. There is a potential impact of increasing older people with long-term conditions particularly the older age groups, as those aged over 90 increased by 4.3% between 2013 and 2014. 2.6.6. What plans are there to continue to address the ill-health of the population? Are these at a sufficiently early time to prevent disease from occurring? Are we investing enough in prevention to shift the services away from primary and secondary care? What other strategies are there to change the other factors influence health in the City (e.g. green space, air quality, planning decisions etc.)? Are we doing enough to target specific areas of the city where burden is greater? 2.7. Crime 2.7.1. Crime trends are varied and crime affects different parts of the city disproportionately. 2.7.2. The most common crime type is anti social behaviour with over 9,700 incidents in 2014/15, down from over 10,000 the previous year, while the second most common category is criminal damage with over 3,300 incidents, which increased by 23% on the previous year. 2.7.3. The biggest increase is evident in hate crime, which saw a 26% increase on the previous year, although this is less than the increase seen across Greater Manchester at 29%. The level of hate crime is highest in Broughton and Kersal wards. 2.7.4. The biggest decrease is evident in burglary of a dwelling at 4.5% lower than the previous year, even better than the decrease seen across Greater Manchester, down 1.8%. 2.7.5. What impact will the increase in population have on crime? How will planning affect levels of crime? What will be the impact of devolution on crime prevention? How can hate crime be tackled? What can be learned from the reduction in domestic burglary? 6
2.8. Environment 2.8.1. Recycling has increased whilst CO2 emissions have fallen. 2.8.2. Total recycling increased by 30% between 2013 and 2015, while general waste decreased by 21%. The largest increase in recycling was in biodegradable waste, up 65%. 2.8.3. Dumping/ flytipping complaints decreased by -10% in the last year although litter complaints increased by 16%. There was a variations in levels of flytipping and litter complaints across the city. 2.8.4. Total CO2 emissions decreased by -8% over the last five years. Domestic emissions decreased by a substantial -18%. 2.8.5. Between 2016-2021, total CO2 emissions are forecast to decrease by -12%, with reductions expected across all categories (Industry / commerce, domestic and transport). 2.8.6. The Greenspace Audit 2015/16 identified over 2,054 hectares of greenspace in Salford, or 21% of the total land area of the city. Approximately 56% of this area of greenspace is freely accessible to the general public, which compares well with neighbouring local authorities 2.8.7. How will the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework (GMSF) affect the environment? Will a growth in business affect CO2 emissions? How can recycling be increased equally in all parts of the city? 2.9. Transport 2.9.1. The use of green transport has increased in Salford 2.9.2. Car and van availability has increased faster than the number of households. The census shows the number of households with 1 car or van is now 42%. 2.9.3. After 10 years of decline, average cycle flows on A roads have recovered to levels last seen in the mid-1990 s However cycle flows on Salford s B roads remain lower than they were prior to 2002. (HFAS report 1694, Transport statistics Greater Manchester 2011) 2.9.4. Travel to work is more common in Salford on foot, public transport, and via green transport than it is across Greater Manchester. (Census, 2011) 2.9.5. The proportion of people commuting via public transport increased by 27%, and green transport by 33%, including a substantial 114% increase in people commuting by tram. (Census, 2011) 2.9.6. How will the GMSF affect transport? What transport infrastructure is needed to sustain the projected growth in businesses? How can the recent increase in cycling be continued? 7