1Q 2017 IFRS Financial Results May 31, 2017

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Transcription:

Always moving forward 1Q 2017 IFRS Financial Results May 31, 2017

Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this presentation are not historical facts and are forward-looking. Examples of such forwardlooking statements include, but are not limited to: projections or expectations of revenues, income (or loss), earnings (or loss) per share, dividends, capital structure or other financial items or ratios; statements of our plans, objectives or goals, including those related to products or services; statements of future economic performance; and statements of assumptions underlying such statements. Words such as believes, anticipates, expects, estimates, intends and plans and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements but are not the exclusive means of identifying such statements. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and risks exist that the predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved. You should be aware that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions expressed in such forward-looking statements. When relying on forward-looking statements, you should carefully consider the foregoing factors and other uncertainties and events, especially in light of the political, economic, social and legal environment in which we operate. Such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. We do not make any representation, warranty or prediction that the results anticipated by such forwardlooking statements will be achieved, and such forward-looking statements represent, in each case, only one of many possible scenarios and should not be viewed as the most likely or standard scenario. 1

Macroeconomic and Tax Environment: Upstream Oil price, exchange rate and net price $/bbl долл./барр. тыс. KRUB/bbl руб./барр. 6 80 5 60 4 3 40 2 20 1 0 0 1кв. 2кв. 3кв. 4кв. 1кв. 1q16 2q16 3q16 4q16 1q17 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 Price and exchange rate 1q17 4q16 % 1q16 % Brent, $/bbl 53.7 49.3 8.8 33.9 58.2 Urals, $/bbl 51.9 47.8 8.7 31.8 63.4 Exchange rate, RUB/$ 58.8 63.1 (6.8) 74.6 (21.2) Net price $/bbl 21.6 20.5 5.3 16.7 29.2 KRUB/bbl 1.27 1.29 (1.5) 1.24 2.7 FX Курс, rate, RUB/$ руб./долл. Urals, Юралс $/bbl Net price, Нетто- KRUB/bbl (r.sc.) цена, тыс. руб./барр. Oil export duty time lag effect, $/bbl Taxes 2.5 1q17 4q16 % 1q16 % 1.0 0.2 $/bbl Export duty 11.8 12.6 (5.7) 7.5 57.2 MET 18.5 14.7 25.7 7.5 145.5-0.3-0.7 1кв. 2кв. 3кв. 4кв. 1кв. 1q16 2q16 3q16 4q16 1q17 16 16 16 16 17 KRUB/t Export duty 0.7 0.8 (12.1) 0.6 22.9 MET 1.1 0.9 17.5 0.6 95.1 Source: Argus, Platts, Company estimates Net price = Urals export duty MET 2

Macroeconomic and Tax Environment: Downstream 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 Benchmark refining margin in Russia, $/bbl 1кв. 2кв. 3кв. 4кв. 1кв. 1q16 2016 2q16 2016 3q16 2016 4q16 2016 1q17 2017 Benchmark refining margin in Europe, $/bbl 1q17 4q16 % 1q16 % Oil products, KRUB/t Fuel oil 9.7 10.3 (6.0) 4.6 112.6 Diesel fuel 31.5 30.0 4.7 27.2 15.7 Premium gasoline 35.2 36.1 (2.4) 33.5 5.2 Taxes, KRUB/t Export duty Diesel fuel 1.5 2.3 (34.0) 1.6 (7.1) Export duty Fuel oil 5.1 4.7 7.3 3.4 51.3 Excise taxes Gasoline Euro-5 10.1 10.1-7.5 34.5 Excise taxes Diesel fuel 6.8 5.3 28.5 4.2 63.9 Benchmark refining margin (European part of Russia) $/bbl 3.3 3.6 (8.4) 1.7 88.3 RUB/bbl 193 226 (14.6) 130 48.4 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 NWE MED 0 1кв. 2кв. 3кв. 4кв. 1кв. 1q16 2016 2q16 2016 3q16 2016 4q16 2016 1q17 2017 Source: Platts, Argus, Company estimates 1q17 4q16 % 1q16 % Oil products (FOB Rotterdam), $/t Fuel oil 3.5% 290 265 9.6 135 114.5 Diesel fuel 0.01% 479 455 5.2 313 53.3 Gasoline 545 505 8.0 386 41.2 Benchmark refining margin, $/bbl NWE 7.4 7.5 (1.8) 6.9 7.2 MED 7.0 6.9 1.1 6.5 7.9 3

Key Operational Indicators 1q17 4q16 % 1q16 % Hydrocarbon production (ex. West Qurna-2) th. boe per day 2,213 2,218 (0.2) 2,217 (0.2) mln boe 199 204 (2.4) 202 (1.2) of which crude oil and NGL mln bbl 161 166 (2.7) 165 (2.2) crude oil and NGL in Russia mln bbl 154 157 (2.5) 157 (2.1) West Qurna-2 mln bbl 3 4 (31.1) 18 (84.4) Refinery throughput at the own refineries mln bbl 16 17 (3.1) 16 2.4 Refining depth % 85 84 1 p.p. 85 0 p.p. Light products yield % 69 67 2 p.p. 64 5 p.p. 4

Key Financial Indicators RUB bln 1q17 4q16 % 1q16 % Revenue 1,432 1,401 2.2 1,178 21.6 EBITDA 208 183 13.3 192 8.2 Exploration and production segment 128 142 (9.8) 130 (1.4) in Russia 112 123 (9.1) 98 14.7 outside Russia, excluding EBITDA of the West Qurna-2 project 13 13 0.6 10 22.8 West Qurna-2 3 6 (47.7) 21 (86.3) Refining, marketing and distribution segment 71 58 22.5 64 11.1 in Russia 38 46 (18.3) 44 (13.8) outside Russia 33 11 189.8 20 66.6 EBITDA, ex West Qurna-2 205 178 15.2 170 20.1 Profit for the period 62 47 33.7 43 45.5 ex. FX effect 97 69 41.6 79 22.7 Capital expenditures 130 140 (6.8) 126 3.5 Free cash flow 1 55 (97.5) 39 (96.4) Free cash flow before changes in working capital 67 38 74.8 57 16.8 Net debt 466 437 6.6 589 (20.9) 5

Dividend Policy Execution Dividend yield for 2016 * Majors LUKOIL 6.9% Russian peers LUKOIL has been increasing DPS since 1998 CAGR for 18 years is 45% Scrip / FCF coverage DPS 2016: RUB: +10% y-o-y USD: +22% y-o-y LUKOIL Russia Majors Proven track record High dividend yield Commitment to increase dividend Coverage of dividends by FCF No scrip *BoD recommendation 6

Upstream 7

Korchagin Filanovsky Yaregskoye Usinskoye Production Dynamics Hydrocarbon production, mln boe Growth factors Launch of Filanovsky and Pyakyakhinskoye fields 18 4 202 204 199 13 13 13 3 WQ-2 Gas abroad Decline factors External limitations (OPEC) Decrease in compensation oil from WQ-2 project Weather conditions in Timan-Pechora 24 25 8 8 25 8 Gas in Russia Liquids abroad Liquids production in Russia (mln bbl) and net price * ($/bbl) Liquids in Russia 5.6 4.9 157 157 154 157 2.2 1.8 154 net price: $43 $43 $48 $21 $31 1q16 4q16 1q17 1q16 North Caspian West Siberia Timan- Pechora Volga, Ural and other 1q17 * net price = oil price ($50/bbl) less export duty and MET under 2017 tax environment and 60 RUB per USD. 8

North Caspian: Filanovsky Field Key advantages High-margin barrels Substantial production growth potential Short transportation leg, low lifting costs, high oil quality 1Q 2017 results Launch of high flow rate bilateral production well 2017 targets Drilling of 3 production and 2 injection wells Construction works completion of the 2nd development stage Net price, $/bbl* Liquids production, Kbpd Wells at the end of the period 76 82 91 MET 60 Export duty 85% 21 3 ` 4 ` 4 ` 4 ` 42% Net price 2 ` Standard taxation Filanovsky 3q16 4q16 1q17 Apr 17 1-22 May 17 * 2017 tax environment under $50/bbl and 60 RUB per USD. 9

West Siberia: Pyakyakhinskoye field Key advantages High-margin barrels Substantial production growth potential High well flow rates 1Q 2017 results Launch of gas production 21 gas wells put into production 6 oil wells put into production 2017 targets Commissioning of 24 oil wells and 34 gas wells Net price, $/bbl * Daily production, Kboepd Liquids Marketable gas 49 52 42% MET Export duty Net price 62% 15 22 29 28 31 32 Standard taxation Pyakyakhinskoye 3q16 4q16 1q17 Apr 17 1-22 May 17 * 2017 tax environment under $50/bbl and 60 RUB per USD. 10

96 140 West Siberia Key advantages Stable region for reinvestment Lowest cost per meter drilled among the Group companies Proven track record Drilling volumes growth potential supported by vast reserve base 1Q 2017 results Production drilling increased by 53% y-o-y Maintaining high share of horizontal wells 2017 targets Production drilling increase by 10-15% Further improvement of liquid production dynamics Production drilling (LUKOIL-West Siberia) New production wells * launch, YTD 700 th. m 140% 500 2016 500 100% 400 2017 300 100 23% 9% 53% 60% 20% 300 200 100-100 -300 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2014 2015 2016 2017 Drilling (l. sc.), th. m y-o-y, % -20% -60% 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec * oil, gas, gas condensate production wells, excluding wells from exploration drilling 11

Timan-Pechora: Yaregskoye field Key advantages High-margin barrels Substantial production growth potential 1Q 2017 results Completion of construction works at Phase 3 Lyayel steam generation unit with 100 tons per hour capacity 16 injection wells put into operation 2017 targets Commissioning of Yarega 75-megawatt power plant Launch of 300 tons of steam generation capacity per hour Net price, $/bbl* Oil production, Kbpd MET 11 13 13 17 14 15 17 Export duty 96% 42% Net price Standard taxation Yaregskoye 2013 2014 2015 2016 1q17 Apr 17 1-22 May 17 * 2017 tax environment under $50/bbl and 60 RUB per USD. 12

Uzbekistan: Growth of Gas Production Kandym Key advantages Proven track record in the region Substantial production growth potential International prices (export to China) 1Q 2017 results Daily production growth by 4% compared to 2016 (LUKOIL share) 7 production wells put into operation Kandym GTP construction works progress >60% (as of May-end) 2017 targets Launch of Djarkuduk complex gas treatment unit more than two-fold daily production increase under Gissar project Gissar Gas production *, mcm per day Gissar 11.3 10.9 2.6 2.9 Kandym 14.2 3.8 15.3 15.8 4.1 4.4 8.7 8.1 10.3 11.2 11.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 1q17 *LUKOIL share 13

Iraq: West Qurna-2 Key advantages High growth potential Proven track record in the region One of the key fields in Iraq 1Q 2017 results Start of production drilling to maintain current production levels Developing reservoir pressure maintenance system one water-supply well commissioned 2017 targets Maintaining 400 Kbpd production level Reimbursement of costs, $ mln West Qurna-2 production, Kbpd 19 529 109 142 515 Доля LUKOIL ЛУКОЙЛ share 384 408 400 207 Oil to be received 31.12.2016 Costs 1q17 Remuneration 1q17 Crude oil received 1q17 Oil to be received 31.03.2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 кв 1q17 2017 14

Downstream 15

Downstream: Efficient Oil Allocation Oil allocation price in Russia, $/bbl Oil allocation volumes in Russia *, mln t 60 50 49 54 20.9 21.1 20.5 1.9 1.3 0.5 Sales in Russia 40 34 37 38 33 8.9 9.1 9.5 Exports 30 29 24 20 18 Delivery to own refineries in Russia 10 Brent Oil netback for refining in Russia 10.1 10.7 10.6 0 Oil export netback 1q16 2q16 3q16 4q16 1q17 1q16 4q16 1q17 * Including oil purchased from third parties 16

Downstream: Russian Refineries KPIs Refinery throughput *, mln t Refining depth Light products yield Total 10.9 11.4 11.2 84% 83% 85% 60% 63% 65% Refinery throughput (-1.4% q-o-q) Ukhta 0.8 0.8 0.7 70% 70% 72% 44% 48% 50% Maintenance at Perm and Nizhny Novgorod refineries Optimizing Ukhta refinery utilization rate to minimize dark product yield Volgograd 2.9 3.2 3.2 93% 88% 93% 59% 58% 67% Refining depth and light products yield (+2 p.p. q-o-q) Perm 3.3 3.3 3.6 95% 96% 95% 65% 67% 64% Reaching design parameters of VGO hydrocracker in Volgograd Optimizing feedstock mix at Ukhta refinery Nizhny Novgorod 3.8 4.1 3.7 72% 72% 73% 61% 62% 62% Decrease at Perm refinery due to maintenance works 1q16 4q16 1q17 1q16 4q16 1q17 1q16 4q16 1q17 *Including gas processing at Perm plant 17

Downstream: European Refineries KPIs Refinery throughput, mln t Refining depth Light products yield Total 5.8 6.0 5.7 84% 88% 86% 71% 75% 75% Ploiești 0.7 0.7 0.4 99% 99% 99% 81% 78% 78% Refinery throughput (-5% q-o-q) Maintenance at Burgas and Ploiești refineries Zeeland 1.3 1.2 1.3 78% 76% 78% 71% 69% 71% Refining depth (-2 p.p. q-o-q) and light products yield (flat q-o-q) Catcracker maintenance at Burgas refinery Burgas 1.3 1.8 1.7 82% 87% 84% 71% 78% 73% ISAB maintenance at processing units in 4q16 and at power unit in 1q17 ISAB 2.5 2.2 2.3 84% 91% 89% 69% 74% 77% 1q16 4q16 1q17 1q16 4q16 1q17 1q16 4q16 1q17 18

Downstream: High-Priority Channels Filling stations: motor fuels sales volumes growth +7% Jet: into-plane jet fuel sales growth +23% EKTO fuels sales volumes growth Non-fuel sales +5% in Russia +4% International +8% into-plane sales volumes growth Lubricants: branded lubricants sales volumes growth Bunkering: sales volumes growth +56% +12% sales volumes of premium motor and industrial oils Maintaining market share in the Baltics and Black Sea Sales development in the ports of Baltics Percentage changes 1q17 vs. 1q16, excluding disposed assets in Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and Cyprus 19

Financial Results 20

Revenue RUB bln 64 5 1,432 (25) 1,401 (11) 1 (1) 5 (10) 3 Revenue 4q16 Oil (Russia) Oil (International) Oil products (Russia) Oil products (International) Other Revenue 1q17 Volume factor Price and structure factor 21

EBITDA RUB bln 10 (10) 14 (19) 31 (3) 2 208 3 West Qurna-2 183 6 205 178 EBITDA 4q16 Revenue Cost of purchased crude oil, gas and products OPEX Transport SG&A Taxes other than income taxes, excise, export tariffs Exploration expenses EBITDA 1q17 22

Operating Expenses RUB bln 113 117 11 16 3 3 10 10 12 12 107 12 3 11 11 Other Petrochemical Power generation and distribution Crude oil transportation to refineries 22 24 21 Refining at the Group s refineries 10 6 4 Hydrocarbon production at W.Qurna-2 44 46 46 Hydrocarbon production (ex. W.Qurna-2) 1q16 4q16 1q17 Lifting costs in Russia, RUB per boe 1q17 341 222 235 238 238 243 246 166 101 1q16 2q16 3q16 4q16 1q17 LUKOIL- Nizhnevolzhsk neft LUKOIL- Perm LUKOIL- West Siberia LUKOIL- Komi 23

SG&A and Transportation Expenses SG&A Transportation expenses RUB bln 74 50 1 5 1 11 3 36 6 63 3 4q16 Labor costs Other SG&A Share-based remuneration program Provision for doubtful debts 1q17 4q16 Oil Refined products Other 1q17 24

Profit RUB bln 24 0 (1) (16) 9 62 47 4q16 EBITDA DD&A Income tax FX Finance income / costs and other 1q17 25

Capital Expenditures RUB bln 10 (8) (1) 4 (2) (11) (2) 130 (7) (2) (1) 10 140 4q16 Caspian (projects in Russia) West Siberia (Yamal) Russia (ex. N.Caspian and West Siberia Yamal) W.Qurna-2 Uzbekistan Abroad (ex. WQ-2 and Uzbekistan) Russia Abroad Other 1q17 E&P RM&D Non-cash 26

Cash Flows RUB bln Free cash flow before changes in working capital, RUB bln 67 19 1 3 (69) 38 10 (2) 196 (128) FCF 4q16 ex. WC Capex OCF ex. WC FCF 1q17 ex. WC 261 (54) 2 (14) 196 West Qurna-2* Cash and cash OCF before working equivalents at the capital beginning of 2017 Working capital change Capex Dividends Other financial cash flow Other Cash and cash equivalents at the end of 1q17 * Cost of shipped oil less operating expenses and capital expenditures 27

Free Cash Flow Before Changes in Working Capital and West Qurna-2 Project RUB bln 69 51 45 54 38 1q16 2q16 3q16 4q16 1q17 28

Financial Position 860 Net debt, RUB bln Debt maturity profile, RUB bln Total debt 699 662 326 Cash and cash equivalents 603 438 257 261 196 466 Net debt Credit lines* Cash 129 196 61 125 78 142 46 210 Net debt/ EBITDA 2015 2016 1q17 0.74 0.60 0.55 As of 2q17-1q18 2q18-1q19 2q19-1q20 2q20-1q21 2q21-1q22 31.03.2017 *Stand-by revolving committed credit lines. 2q22 and further Debt structure as of 31.03.2017 Credit ratings USD / EUR / RUB / Other debt 85% 7% 5% 3% Secured / Unsecured debt 12% 88% S&P BBB- Fixed / Variable rate 59% 41% Fitch BBB- Eurobonds (all in $) / Other debt 56% 44% Moody s Ba1 29

2017 Outlook UPSTREAM Growth in hydrocarbon production by ~1-2% driven by gas ramp-up Increase in the share of high-margin barrels: Filanovsky, Pyakyahinskoe, Yaregskoe, gas production in Uzbekistan and others Growth of drilling volumes in West Siberia to decelerate decline rates: 10-15% growth y-o-y New opportunities: Potential FIDs on new projects in the Caspian Sea and Baltic Sea, new exploration areas DOWNSTREAM Increasing refinery throughput in Russia by ~4-5% Further improvement in refinery product slate: Increase in light product yield in Russia to ~70%, further optimization of product flows between the refineries New opportunities Potential FID on delayed cocker at Nizhniy Novgorod refinery Growth in priority marketing channels CAPEX ~550-600 bln RUB depending on the RR/$ exchange rate Upstream - 85%; Downstream - 15% Russia - 70%; International - 30% 30

Q&A 31

APPENDIX 32

Financial Results RUB bln 1,178 1,339 1,309 1,401 1,432 +21.6% y-o-y Revenue EBITDA 192 190 166 183 208 +8.2% y-o-y Profit excluding FX effect 79 86 63 69 97 +22.7% y-o-y 1q16 2q16 3q16 4q16 1q17 33

Revenue RUB bln 83 1,432 56 (7) 116 9 21 1,178 3 (15) (12) Revenue 1q16 Oil (Russia) Oil (International) Oil products (Russia) Oil products (International) Other Revenue 1q17 Volume factor Price and structure factor 34

EBITDA RUB bln 254 (205) 6 13 12 (65) West Qurna-2 192 21 1 208 3 170 205 EBITDA 1q16 Revenue Cost of purchased crude oil, gas and products OPEX Transport SG&A Taxes other than income taxes, excise, export tariffs Exploration expenses EBITDA 1q17 35

SG&A and Transportation Expenses SG&A Transportation Expenses RUB bln 48 3 3 87 0 (15) 1 74 7 1 36 1q16 Labor costs Other SG&A Share-based remuneration program Provision for doubtful debts 1q17 1q16 Oil Refined products Other 1q17 36

Profit RUB bln 16 4 (4) 2 2 62 43 1q16 EBITDA DD&A Income tax FX Finance income / costs and other 1q17 37

Capital Expenditures RUB bln (9) 130 126 3 4 (5) 4 (7) 18 (6) (1) (0) 10 1q16 Caspian (projects in Russia) West Siberia (Yamal) Russia (ex. N.Caspian and West Siberia Yamal) W.Qurna-2 Uzbekistan Abroad (ex. WQ-2 and Uzbekistan) Russia Abroad Other 1q17 E&P RM&D Non-cash 38

Consolidated Statement of Profit or Loss (in USD mln, at the average exchange rate for the period) 1q17 4q16 % 1q16 % Revenue Sales (including excise and export tariffs) 24,347 22,213 10 15,787 54 Costs and other deductions Operating expenses (1,828) (1,861) (2) (1,518) 20 Cost of purchased crude oil, gas and products (12,629) (11,731) 8 (7,208) 75 Transportation expenses (1,254) (1,007) 25 (1,162) 8 Selling, general and administrative expenses (617) (799) (23) (641) (4) Depreciation, depletion and amortization (1,374) (1,282) 7 (1,131) 21 Taxes other than income taxes (2,614) (1,884) 39 (1,120) 133 Excise and export tariffs (1,861) (1,984) (6) (1,541) 21 Exploration expenses (13) (42) (69) (23) (42) Profit from operating activities 2,158 1,624 33 1,443 50 Finance income 56 58 (3) 51 9 Finance costs (161) (216) (25) (139) 16 Equity share in income of affiliates 63 32 101 32 101 Foreign exchange loss (740) (435) 70 (608) 22 Other expenses (42) (90) (53) (45) (6) Profit before income taxes 1,334 973 37 734 82 Current income taxes (217) (176) 23 (140) 54 Deferred income taxes (51) (53) (3) (17) 196 Total income tax expense (268) (229) 17 (158) 70 Profit for the period 1,066 743 43 576 85 Profit for the period attributable to non-controlling interests (6) (4) 47 (2) 231 Profit for the period attributable to PJSC LUKOIL shareholders 1,060 739 43 574 85 39

Always moving forward