Expert Group Meeting on Short Term Statistics 16-18 Feb 2016 Economic And Social Commission For Western Asia Results of the Assessment on short-term statistics in the ESCWA region
Assessment Methodology carried out in 3 stages 1. Questionnaires 2. Missions 3. National Assessment Reports
Availability of STS: general picture Data Set Indicator Egypt Tunisia Qatar Pales Jordan Oman Lebanon tine Flash GDP estimate GDP by income GDP by production 1. GDP by expenditure National accounts Quarterly sector accounts Production index for industry Production index for construction Turnover index for retail trade by major division Turnover index for industry by major division Turnover index for other services by major division (excluding financial services and non-commercial 2. services) Productio New orders index for industry by major ISIC n and division (for those that work on order) turnover New orders index for construction (building permits or housing starts) Commodity production: Agricultural products Commodity production: New commercial vehicle registrations Commodity production: Tourist arrivals
Data Set Indicator Egypt Tunisia Qatar Palestine Jordan Oman Lebanon Household disposable income Household saving 8. Household Household debt sector indicators Other as relevant: debt service and principal payments, etc 9. Non-financial Non-financial corporate profits corporations Non-financial corporate debt sector indicators Other as relevant Interest rates, as relevant short and long term money and bond market rates Exchange rates, as relevant spot and forward markets Nominal and real effective exchange rate Stock market indicators Others as relevant : spreads between lending and deposit rates, highestlowest interbank rate; etc. 10. Financial market indicators 11. Real estate market indicators 12. Economic sentiment Residential property price index New house sales Existing house sales Consumer confidence Business confidence Composite Business Cycle Indicators: Leading Indicator Composite Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Indicator Composite Business Cycle Indicators: Lagging Indicator
3. Prices Data Set Indicator Egypt Tunisia Qatar Palestine Jordan Oman Lebanon 4. Labour market indicators 5. External sector accounts 6. Financial sector indicators 7. General government sector indicators CPI PPI Import price index Export Price Index Unemployment Unemployment rate Employment total and by economic activity Hourly wage rate Hours of work Exports and imports (of goods and services) International investment position (IIP), specify balances and components Official reserve assets External debt (by sector, maturity and foreign currency) Central Bank net foreign assets Central Bank domestic lending Central Bank reserve money Depository corporations net foreign assets Depository corporations domestic lending Depository corporations broad money liabilities Other financial corporations balance sheet, assets and liabilities by sector. Financial corporate profits Financial corporate debt Others as relevant: nonperforming loans of depository corporations, capital adequacy ratios, other financial stability indicators, etc. Revenue Expenses Net operating balance (= Revenue Expense) Net acquisition of non-financial assets Expenditure Net lending/net borrowing (= Revenue - Expenditure) Gross debt
Availability of Indicators by selected set: Indicator Indicator Set 1: National Accounts GDP by production GDP by expenditure GDP by income Set 2: Production and turnover Production index for industry, by major division New orders index for construction Turnover index for industry by major division Turnover index for other services by major division Turnover index for retail trade by major division Flash GDP estimate 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No of countries Production index for construction New orders index for industry by major ISIC division 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No of countries
Availability of Indicators by selected set(cont d) Indicator Indicator Set 8: HH sector Set 9: Non-financial corporations sector indicators Household disposable income Non-financial corporate debt Household saving Household debt Non-financial corporate profits 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No of countries 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No of countries
Availability of Indicators (cont d) Indicator Indicator Set 10: Real estate market indicators Set 12: Economic Sentiment Existing house sales CBC Indicators: lagging indicators CBC Indicators: coincident indicator New house sales CBC Indicators: Leading Indicator Residential property price index Business confidence Consumer confidence 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No of countries 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No of countries
Frequency and Timeliness of STS in the Pilot countries Recommended Frequency vs Actual STS currently disseminated 120 % 100 80 60 40 20 0 Egypt Tunisia Qatar Palestine Jordan Oman Adhere Not Adhere
Recommended Timeliness vs Actual STS produced by the Pilot countries % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Egypt Tunisia Qatar Palestine Jordan Oman Adhere Not Adhere Not Specfied
Priority STS: Priority STS identified by the pilot countries Indicator Egypt Tunisia Qatar Palestine Jordan Oman Lebanon GDP by production/ expenditure and Flash x x x x x x Producer Price Index x x Import and Export Price Index x x x x Turnover index of Industry by major division x x x x x Production index for industry by major division x x x Turnover index for retail trade by major division x x x x x x Production index for construction x x x x Business and Consumer confidence indicators x x x x x x Others: Employment by activity x x Household Debt x x x x Residential property price index x x x x x
Capacity Development Needs identified: Main issues, include: Improve data collection methods. Improve the IT infrastructure for data collection, processing and dissemination of STS. Enhance the frequency and timeliness of STS produced. Strengthen and upgrade the skills of STS national compilers by organizing on the job training by experts.
Thank You Fathia AbdelFadil/ UNESCWA abdefadil@un.org EGM on Short-term Statistics, Amman feb 2016 fathia abdelfadil