Trade Statistics: Regional Trade Statistics Review of Regional Trade Statistics Summary of Responses Published: February 2016 uktradeinfo Customer Services: 03000 594250 e-mail: uktradeinfo@hmrc.gsi.gov.uk website: www.uktradeinfo.com 1. WHO SHOULD READ THIS? Users of Regional Trade Statistics products in particularly those who gave their views on the future of this National Statistics product during the recent consultation. 2. SUMMARY HMRC carried out an informal consultation into the future and methodology of the Regional Trade Statistics (RTS) between 21 October 2015 and 8 January 2016. This paper summarises the responses received. 3. INTRODUCTION HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) introduced the Regional Trade Statistics (RTS) series in January 1999 to support the economic decision-making of the devolved Scottish and Welsh Governments and other regional bodies within the UK. The RTS is a regional breakdown of the Overseas Trade in Goods Statistics, with trade being allocated to one of the nine England regions (the North East, the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber, the East Midlands, the West Midlands, the East, London, the South East and the South West) plus Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The RTS gives a quarterly breakdown by region (defined above), commodity traded (Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) Division) and for pre-selected partner countries. It also gives a business count based on businesses who trade with non-eu countries and those businesses who trade with EU countries who are required to submit full declarations for their EU trade. Page 1 of 6
An informal consultation was carried out between 21 October 2015 and 8 January 2016. The main reasons for reviewing the RTS were: To ensure the statistics produced are fit for purpose and still required by users; To look at options that improve the usability and quality of the statistics produced; To harmonise if possible with the methodologies employed for other regional based statistics produced across the Government Statistical Service (GSS); To identify the right balance between producing statistics at regions / locations, with product and partner country; but still ensuring disclosure controls; To improve the accuracy of number of businesses count, incorporating additional data sources if possible. 4. SUMMARY OF RESPONSES A total of eight responses were received, including several government stakeholders of these statistics. Future of RTS All respondents were in favour of continuing with the RTS. The respondents told us they used RTS for: Briefing to UK government ministers including the Prime Minister; Press releases and marketing strategies; Feeding into other published Government Statistics directly and indirectly, including quality assurance processes; 'Monitoring and evaluation' as part of strategy on trade and investment. Alternative data sources Respondents told us there were no alternative published data sources that could replace the RTS. This was particularly the case when looking at the partner country and product detail in the RTS. RTS was considered unique in that it publishes at commodity level as opposed to industry level that other statistics are published at. Page 2 of 6
Display / aggregation options We asked what customer s priorities were concerning the detail of data required for the main variables. These variables are: Region / location; Commodity breakdown; Partner Country breakdown. We put forward in the consultation four potential options that combined these variables. These options took into account that by increasing the level of detail on one data element, this would need to coincide with increased aggregation (less detail) for another. Thus ensuring compliance with the UK Statistics Authority Code of Practice and the Commissioners For Revenue & Customs Act 2005. Respondents preferred option 1 (no change): Regional Breakdown NUTS1 nine Government Regions for England plus Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland; Commodity Breakdown - SITC division (2-digit); Partner Country breakdown 93 pre-defined partner countries. The main reasons cited were to keep the detail of commodity traded and partner country (particularly partner country). Some respondents did state that ideally they would like greater detail in all variables but were understanding of our obligations to our data providers. Frequency of Publication All respondents requested that the data remains published quarterly with a quarterly aggregation, the most frequent option available. Reasons cited were that the quarterly RTS data feeds into additional analysis produced by our key stakeholders including other quarterly publications they produce themselves. However, the respondents did not feel the commentary was needed quarterly, feeling annually was sufficient. Page 3 of 6
Methodological Issues Respondents raised methodological issues that fall into three main categories: Allocating a business s trade to a region; Dealing with trade currently allocated to unknown region; Devising a robust method to calculate trader counts. Allocating a business s trade to a region We put forward two options for allocation of a business trade to a region. Firstly, to allocate based entirely on the Head Office (9-digit vat number) or secondly by using IDBR data to allocate trade based on the proportion of a business employees in that region. The first option is problematic as where a trader has multiple branches, the location of where the trader is registered does not reflect where the trade is carried out. Some respondents asked for a re-run of a Head Office distortion survey that is currently in place for exports in the existing RTS methodology to overcome this. The second option was preferred by the majority of the respondents as they felt it reflected more on where the trade was taking place from. Dealing with trade currently allocated to unknown region We asked for comments on reducing the value of trade in the Unknown region. Options suggested by respondents concerning this included: Separately identifying trade carried out by businesses outside the UK and other Extra-region trade (e.g. Government). These currently sit in unknown but to identify them separately would give credibility to the un-allocated figures. Use proportional allocation to allocate trade in specific goods where the trade information is collected using methods other than declaration from trader (e.g. energy goods). Page 4 of 6
Business Counts Respondents considered the inclusion of business counts very important. They wanted the methodology harmonised with that used for other GSS releases that contain regional business counts. 5. NEXT STEPS The RTS will continue to be produced as all respondents were in favour of it continuing. Thank you to all those who responded. All responses will be considered and any changes to the RTS that arise from this consultation will be pre-announced on our website uktradeinfo.com. Page 5 of 6
6. ANNEX 1: LIST OF RESPONDENTS Responses were received from the following organisations Office for National Statistics. Combined response with contributions from: o National Accounts; o Survey Methodology and Statistical Computing Division; o Regional Accounts; o London Statistician; o Annual Business Survey. Business Innovation and Skills. Combined response with contributions from: o Trade and FDI Statistics; o Local Growth Analysis. Scottish Government. Combined response with contributions from: o Trade Statistics Office of the Chief Economic Advisor; o National Accounts Office of the Chief Economic Advisor; o Rural Science and Analysis Unit; o Marine Scotland Science. Welsh Government - Economic, Labour Market and Transport Statistics Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency Economic and Labour Market Statistics UK Trade and Investment Economics and Evaluation Team Greater London Authority GLA Economics Meat Promotion Wales Page 6 of 6