Research Update: Russia-Based VTB Bank JSC Upgraded To 'BBB-/A-3' Following Similar Rating Action On The Sovereign; Outlook Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Roman Rybalkin, CFA, Moscow (7) 495-783-40-94; roman.rybalkin@spglobal.com Secondary Contact: Sergey Voronenko, Moscow (7) 495-783-40-03; sergey.voronenko@spglobal.com Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Ratings Score Snapshot Related Criteria Ratings List WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT MARCH 6, 2018 1
Research Update: Russia-Based VTB Bank JSC Upgraded To 'BBB-/A-3' Following Similar Rating Action On The Overview On Feb. 23, 2018, we raised our foreign and local currency ratings on Russia to 'BBB-/Stable/A-3' and 'BBB/Stable/A-2' respectively. We are therefore raising our ratings on VTB Bank JSC and its subsidiaries VTB Insurance Ltd., VTB Capital PLC, and VTB Bank (Kazakhstan). The stable outlooks reflect our view that recovery of the group's profitability will be sufficient to offset pressure on the bank's capitalization. Rating Action On March 6, 2018, S&P Global Ratings raised its long- and short-term issuer credit ratings on Russia-based VTB Bank JSC and VTB Capital PLC to 'BBB-/A-3' from 'BB+/B'. At the same time, we raised our long-term issuer credit rating on VTB Insurance Ltd. to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. We also raised our long-term issuer credit ratings on VTB Bank (Kazakhstan) to 'BB+' from 'BB' and affirmed the 'B' short-term issuer credit rating. Our outlooks on all four entities are stable. We also raised the Kazakhstan national scale rating on VTB Bank (Kazakhstan) to 'kzaa-' from 'kza'. In addition, we raised our ratings on VTB Bank's senior debt to 'BBB-' from 'BB+', and affirmed our 'B-' ratings on the subordinated debt. Rationale The rating actions reflect the improvement in Russia's credit quality, as well as our view that VTB Bank is a government-related entity with a very high likelihood of receiving extraordinary government support if necessary. We continue to assess the bank's stand-alone credit profile (SACP) at 'bb-'. We view as positive the group's efforts to improve the structure of its funding by substituting expensive wholesale funding with customer funds, WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT MARCH 6, 2018 2
increase diversification of its business profile through increasing its retail banking penetration, and improve its operational efficiency through consolidation within the group structure and leaner management. Volatility of the bank's credit costs has decreased and the group no longer incurs losses on credit commitments to associated entities, which we also view as positive. At the same time, we believe that certain pressures on the bank's SACP remain. In particular, we continue to see fairly high concentrations on VTB Bank's balance sheet and an appetite for large equity investments, such as the announced acquisition of a 29.1% stake in a major Russian retailer, Magnit PJSC, for about Russian ruble 138.2 billion ($2.4 billion). This represents about 12% of VTB Bank's total adjusted capital as of Dec. 31, 2017. Consequently, we continue to regard VTB Bank's capitalization as weak, with a projected risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio at about 4.5%, which is at the lower end of the range we forecast a year ago. We equalize our ratings on VTB Capital and VTB Insurance with our ratings on their ultimate parent VTB Bank, since we consider them core subsidiaries of the group. We rate VTB Bank (Kazakhstan), which we consider a highly strategic subsidiary, one notch below our ratings on VTB Bank. Outlook Our stable outlooks on VTB Bank and its subsidiaries reflect our view that, over the next 18 to 24 months, recovery of the group's profitability will be sufficient to offset pressure on the bank's capitalization. We anticipate that the Russian government will maintain majority ownership and control over the bank for the foreseeable future. A positive rating action is unlikely in the next 18 to 24 months and will be contingent on a positive rating action on Russia. An upgrade will also require improvement in VTB Bank's capitalization, with the RAC ratio staying above 5.25%. A negative rating action may follow in the next 18 to 24 months if we see VTB Bank's risk appetite increasing, significantly affecting the bank's risk profile. This could come from an increase in concentrations on the balance sheet, for example if the 20 largest borrowers exceed 300% of total adjusted capital, or if higher-than-expected credit losses caused the RAC ratio to fall below 3.25%. While privatization of the bank is not in our base-case scenario for the next 12 to 18 months, it could also lead to a negative rating action. A negative rating action on the subsidiaries may follow that on the parent bank. If we change our view on the strategic importance of VTB Insurance, VTB Capital, or VTB Bank (Kazakhstan), we may also take a negative rating action on these entities. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT MARCH 6, 2018 3
Ratings Score Snapshot VTB Bank JSC To From Issuer Credit Rating BBB-/Stable/A-3 BB+/Stable/B SACP bb- bb- Anchor bb- bb- Business Position Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Capital and Earnings Weak (-1) Weak (-1) Risk Position Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Funding and Average and (0) Average and (0) Liquidity Adequate Adequate Support +3 +2 ALAC Support 0 0 GRE Support +3 +2 Group Support 0 0 Sovereign Support 0 0 Additional Factors 0 0 Related Criteria General Criteria: S&P Global Ratings' National And Regional Scale Mapping Tables, Aug. 14, 2017 Criteria - Financial Institutions - General: Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework Methodology, July 20, 2017 General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Long-Term And Short-Term Ratings, April 7, 2017 General Criteria: Rating Government-Related Entities: Methodology And Assumptions, March 25, 2015 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Bank Hybrid Capital And Nondeferrable Subordinated Debt Methodology And Assumptions, Jan. 29, 2015 General Criteria: National And Regional Scale Credit Ratings, Sept. 22, 2014 General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Quantitative Metrics For Rating Banks Globally: Methodology And Assumptions, July 17, 2013 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT MARCH 6, 2018 4
Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 General Criteria: Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009 Ratings List Upgraded To From VTB Bank JSC Issuer Credit Rating BBB-/Stable/A-3 BB+/Stable/B Senior Unsecured BBB- BB+ VTB Capital PLC Issuer Credit Rating BBB-/Stable/A-3 BB+/Stable/B VTB Insurance Ltd. Issuer Credit Rating BBB-/Stable/-- BB+/Stable/-- Financial Strength Rating BBB-/Stable/-- BB+/Stable/-- VTB Capital S.A. Senior Unsecured BBB- BB+ Upgraded; Ratings Affirmed To From VTB Bank (Kazakhstan) Issuer Credit Rating BB+/Stable/B BB/Stable/B Kazakhstan National Scale Rating kzaa-/--/-- kza/--/-- Senior Unsecured BB+ BB Senior Unsecured kzaa- kza Ratings Affirmed VTB Bank JSC Subordinated B- VTB Capital S.A. Subordinated B- Additional Contact: Financial Institutions Ratings Europe; FIG_Europe@spglobal.com Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjectives used to express our view on rating relevant factors, have specific meanings ascribed to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT MARCH 6, 2018 5
criteria. Please see Ratings Criteria at www.standardandpoors.com for further information. Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at www.capitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on the S&P Global Ratings' public website at www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following S&P Global Ratings numbers: Client Support Europe (44) 20-7176-7176; London Press Office (44) 20-7176-3605; Paris (33) 1-4420-6708; Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-225; Stockholm (46) 8-440-5914; or Moscow 7 (495) 783-4009. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT MARCH 6, 2018 6
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