PROMOTING REGULATORY REFORM FOR INVESTMENT IN INDONESIA RALDI HENDRO KOESTOER Office of Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Republic of Indonesia (CMEA-RI) APEC High Level Conference on Structural Reform, 8-9 September 2004, Tokyo, Japan 1
BACKGROUND 1. Indonesia has changed a lot in terms of regulatory reforms. 2. After the crisis, a dynamic trend has occurred to response towards the internal as well as external influences including political and economic situations. 3. Challenges emerges: (i) Low investment, (ii) Moderate Economic Growth, (iii) Poverty and Unemployment 2
Paper Focuses on: Review on Macro Economic Condition Policy Reforms on Investment Review on Investment Progress in Regions Impact of Investment on Employment Summary 3
GEOGRAPHICAL MAP OF INDONESIA 4
A MACRO ECONOMIC CONDITION 5
ECONOMIC INDICATOR 2001 2002 2003 2004 Growth (%) 3,4 3,7 4,1 4,8* Inflation (%) 12,55 10,03 5,06 6,50* Deficit on Budget (% GDP) 3,5 1,7 1,9 1,2* Interest Rate for SBI (%) 17,62 12,99 8,31 7,34** Export Growth on Oil Gas (%) -11,0 3,4 5,2 7,0* Savings (miliar USD) 28,02 32,04 36,25 36,6** Rupiah/USD 10.452 9.375 8.465 8,500* *)Govt. target **) June 2004 6
FINANCIAL INDICATOR 2001 2002 2003 Fluctuation Rupiah on USD (y-o-y), (- : depreciation) -21,8 9,3 7,9 Change on IHSG (y-o-y) -17,9 12,4 58,1 Debt Rate (S&P) CCC CCC+ B+ Savgs in months of Imports and Debt pymnt 5,9 6,6 7,0 Public Debt (% GDP) 87,7 81,2 67,7 7
ECONOMIC GROWTH 10 5 0-5 Real Growth (%) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-10 -15-20 Source: Bank Indonesia 202013SI 8
Economic Progress. The GoI sets up proper policies. The objective is to improve competitiveness with minimizing impacts. Several steps are taken into account: (i) to improve the investment climate; (ii) to encourage the export development; (iii) to refresh the function of intermediary banking; (iv) to improve the resilience of fiscal base overcoming the financing gap; (v) to sustain stability on monetary and financial sectors; (vi) to alleviate the poverty and increase employment. In short, GoI attempts to set up related economic policies through 2 major packages, i.e. Presidential Instruction No 5 of 2003 (White Paper) and Presidential Decree No 87 of 2003. 9
ECONOMIC PACKAGES Presidential Instruction No. 5/2003 (White Paper) Presidential Decree No. 87 /2004 10
INSTRUCTION OF PRESIDENT No. 5/2003 White Paper (Inpres No.5/ 2003) - main goals : Maintain Macro Economic Stability Continue restructuring & reforming on financial sector Promote Invesment, Export and Employment. 11
President Decree No. 87/2003 Set up a National Team for Industrial Development & Invesment Promotion (Tim Nasional Peningkatan Ekspor dan Peningkatan Investasi /PEPI), Keppres 87/ 2003. Main Tasks : Formulate Policy on Export and Invesment; Set up Startegic Steps to Boost Economic Export and Investment; Review and Give Recommendations in Boosting Export and Promoting Investment. 12
OTHER RELATED POLICIES ON INVESTMENT Proposed Draft of Law on Investment Presidential Decree No 29 of 2004 on One Roof Service A Presidential Decree No 80 of 2003 on government procurement, and followed by e-procurement 13
BOOSTING EXPORT AND INVESTMENT Economic package on Export and investment. Promotion (Pres. Decree No.87/03) with A National Team Progress on related policies 1. The government maintains its vigilance to prevent issuance of local regulations inconsistent with prevailing laws and regulations. 2. The Customs and Excise streamlines its operations to reduce malfeasance and evasion. 3. High priority to investment in infrastructure to support growth, investment and employment creation. 4. A series of trade facilitation measures is underway. 5. The support for SMEs 6. Presidential Decree No 29 of 2004 dealing with Provision on Investment for domestic and Foreign Investment through one roof licensing service. 14
B INVESTMENT VS EMPLOYMENT 15
DOM ESTIC AND FOREIGN INVESTMENTS IN KBI-KTI AUGUST 2000 - JULY 2001 200,000.00 INVESTMENT VALUE 150,000.00 100,000.00 50,000.00 0.00 KBI KTI PMA 110,594.69 15,089.71 PMDN 58,345.40 60,501.00 16
DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN INVESTMENTS IN KBI AUGUST 2000 - JULY 2001 100,000.00 90,000.00 80,000.00 70,000.00 INVESTMENT VALUE 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 P.SUMATERA P.JAWA PULAU BALI PMA 34,643.79 74,718.40 1,232.50 PMDN 39,398.70 18,496.70 450 Total 74.042.49 93.215,10 1.682.50 17
DOMESTIC & FOREIGN INVESTMENTS IN KTI AUGUST 2000 - JULY 2001 60,000.00 INVESTMENT VALUE 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 WNT ENT KALIMANTAN SULAWESI MALUKU PAPUA PMA 11,979.82 8.67 1,773.10 175.53 955.4 197.2 PMDN 1,273.00 1,081.10 4,823.30 50,143.60 0 3,180.00 Total 13.252,82 1.089,77 6.596,40 50.319,13 955,4 3.377,20 18
ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE WORKERS IN KBI - KTI JULY 2003 (PERSUS) 90,000,000.00 80,000,000.00 70,000,000.00 60,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 40,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 0.00 KBI KTI Series1 78,321,358.00 17,123,218.00 19
Employee & Employer of KBI for 2003 18,000,000.00 16,000,000.00 14,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 8,000,000.00 6,000,000.00 4,000,000.00 2,000,000.00 0.00 P.SUMATERA P.JAWA PULAU BALI EMPLOYER 510,466.00 1,621,552.00 41,900.00 REGULAR EMPLOYEE 4,287,237.00 14,620,009.00 548,780.00 20
Employee & Employer of KTI for 2003 1,400,000.00 1,200,000.00 1,000,000.00 800,000.00 600,000.00 400,000.00 200,000.00 0.00 WNT ENT KALIMANTAN SULAWESI MALUKU PAPUA EMPLOYER 38,620.00 20,349.00 137,237.00 185,360.00 19,399.00 8,880.00 REGULAR EMPLOYEE 247,840.00 189,231.00 1,105,503.00 1,051,545.00 68,487.00 139,026.00 21
Labour Force 2003- KBI 12,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 8,000,000.00 6,000,000.00 4,000,000.00 2,000,000.00 0.00 SUMATERA JAWA BALI 4,922,928.00 11,215,969.00 539,441.00 22
Labour Force 2003- KTI 1,400,000.00 1,200,000.00 1,000,000.00 800,000.00 600,000.00 400,000.00 200,000.00 0.00 WNT ENT KALIMANTAN SULAWESI MALUKU PAPUA 290,995.00 269,395.00 1,080,292.00 1,282,106.00 117,767.00 158,418.00 23
SUMMARY Indonesia is relatively successful in recovering the crisis, and ready to promote investment and export development with proper policy reforms. Challenges that can be put properly as opportunity to reboost the development performance The Government attempts to boost the economy through structural and directive policy reforms: i.e. White Paper and Pres. Decree No. 87 of 2003, and proposed draft on Law on Investment, Presidential Decree No. 29 of 2004. Synchronized systems introduced in complying with domestic and international dynamics 24
SUMMARY (cont ) Econ Packages: On Track Pattern of Investments Varied Dom. Investm.: Traditional Sectors; Foreign Investm.: Modern Sectors HR Quality-Low: 70% of total Workers Reltnship. b/w Invstm vs Workers: Contrast Pattern; KBI (Sumatra) Strong Corr. KTI Weak & Neg. 25
Continued Through the laws and related decrees, investors and business people can look forward to a more harmonious relationship and all brings into investors confidence and improving competitiveness. The government remains committed to implement the Presidential Decree No. 87 of 2003, and related policy reforms on Investment. 26