PIPER JAFFRAY 16 TH ANNUAL FINANCIAL SERVICES CONFERENCE Talking points prepared for presentation to the Piper Jaffray 16 TH Annual Financial Services Conference by American Express Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden on March 16, 2005. Slide 1 Thank you Bob. Good morning and thank you all for joining us today. Slide 2 I would like to spend the next 10-15 minutes: Briefly reviewing the Company s 2004 performance; Providing an overview of our recently announced plans to pursue a spin-off of American Express Financial Advisors; and Discussing our Financial Paradigm, or the organizing principles which we leverage to develop and capture growth opportunities, maximize returns and manage stability as we drive toward increasing shareholder value. Slide 3 Let me start with company performance. In 2004 we had an excellent year. We began the year with good momentum and, as the year progressed, our performance continued to strengthen, even as we came up against more difficult comparisons. Because of the improvements we made to our business models over the last three years, our continued high level of investment spending, a generally positive economic environment, and the resulting strength of our core businesses, we generated excellent results on both the top and bottom lines. Overall, we outperformed against the high end of each of our on average and over time financial targets. Slide 4 Specifically within our Travel Related Services business, our 2004 performance was very strong, both on an absolute basis and on a relative basis, against the organic growth of our peers. As you know, TRS comprises a broad and deep set of businesses, including our proprietary card, network, travel and prepaid services businesses, which collectively possess strong growth, return, and stability characteristics.
Strong growth in cardmember billings, cards in force and lending, as well as best-in-class credit performance, made it an excellent year for our global card business. Continued improvement in the travel environment during 2004 helped spur growth in our travel sales and sales of our travelers cheque products. Slide 5 Within Financial Advisors and American Express Bank good levels of growth were also achieved for the year. Sales, assets and bank holdings all demonstrated very solid growth. At Financial Advisors this translated into excellent relative performance, with earnings and revenue growth rates at or near the top of their peer group. Slide 6 I d like to turn now to our decision to pursue a spin-off of our financial advisors unit. We believe that the decision to create two separate, independent entities better positions each business, both TRS and AEFA, to maximize their respective growth opportunities. In addition, separation of these entities removes competition between them for management focus and capital resources, which will also help to drive their independent growth. Furthermore, over the last several years, TRS and AEFA have become increasingly different in many regards, including in their financial return profiles, their competitive dynamics, and even in their respective sales and distribution channels. And finally, the timing of this decision is right for two reasons: financial performance and momentum within both entities has been strong--positioning them well for stand-alone growth--and for AXP, specifically, the recent DOJ ruling has presented strategic development and growth opportunities which AXP is better able to pursue independently. Let s review some of the highlights of the transaction. We expect to recapitalize AEFA prior to the spin-off, with a contribution of capital from AXP, in order to provide AEFA with appropriate liquidity and access to the capital markets while supporting IDS Life s current double A-level insurance financial strength ratings. We do expect to incur spin-off related expenses, which, cumulatively, could be significant. We are in the process of identifying and itemizing all of these costs and intend to disclose these transitional operating expenses within our quarterly results. We are targeting to execute the spin-off sometime within the third quarter. It is intended to be tax-free to shareholders, with AXP shareholders receiving shares in the new AEFA entity. Post spin-off, AEFA will become a separate publicly traded entity. American Express will not retain any ongoing ownership. Slide 7 As you can imagine, we are hard at work coordinating and executing all of the initiatives that will be required to complete this transaction.
Some of these are: Completing the more detailed presentation of AEFA financials that will be required for a stand alone company; Filing of a Form 10 registration for the new AEFA shares with the SEC; Obtaining regulatory approvals, as well as an IRS private letter ruling and/or an opinion of counsel confirming the tax free status of the spin-off Engaging in discussions with the Rating Agencies as well as finalizing the appropriate AEFA capital structure; Establishing various transitional marketing/service agreements to facilitate the separation of the businesses; and Obtaining the approval of our Board of Directors. While our intent is to complete the transaction within the third quarter of this year, certain key tasks, such as SEC approval of the Form 10, are not fully within our control. Slide 8 As we noted earlier, a spin-off of AEFA will allow us to intensify our focus on the many high return growth opportunities within the ongoing American Express entity. Not only do we aspire to be one of the top financial services companies, but we want to be a top tier growth company by exhibiting the key characteristics of consistent, profitable growth, stability, and attractive returns. As many of you know, over the past few years, we have focused on these principles, and have used this paradigm to guide the way we manage our business. Going forward, we will continue to focus on this paradigm to best position us to achieve the aspirations we have for the new American Express. Slide 9 Focusing in on our growth opportunities and initiatives, you might remember that we categorize these opportunities into three buckets: Organic growth opportunities; Expanded growth opportunities; and Joint Ventures and/or Acquisitions. We think of organic growth opportunities as those opportunities that bring new customers and clients into the franchise or improve key drivers of business performance. Key drivers we pay particularly close attention to include cardmember spend, acquisition and attrition.
Given our track record of success over the last several years, as well as the substantial potential for additional market penetration, we believe that organic growth will continue to be the main driver of our future results. Slide 10 Let s first focus on our organic growth opportunities and particularly on spending. Billings drive our spend-centric model and as a result this metric is very important to our overall economics. Our goal is to grow overall spend by growing cards in force, and specifically by growing average spend per cardmember. We think about average spend per cardmember as our same store sales metric, which shows the true health and organic growth within our business. Our high average spend per cardmember and the considerable gap we maintain versus the bankcards on this metric, enable us to consistently substantiate our value proposition with merchants and support the premium economics of our network. In addition, we have proven that average spend per cardmember has real impact on our P&L. In 2003 we did some analysis which showed that if we increased average spend per cardmember each year by 5%, then by 2007 we would generate approximately $3 billion in incremental revenue. So as a result, we ve worked hard to grow average spend per cardmember and despite the difficult economic conditions in 2001 and 2002, over the past five years, we ve shown an ability to increase this metric. 2004 was particularly strong, with double-digit growth reflecting the substantial positive momentum across our businesses. Slide 11 In fact, we experienced strong growth within each of our customer segments. Slide 12 Another driver of organic growth and the second half of our billings growth equation is Cards in Force. Cards have been growing at a compound annual rate of 7% over the past five years. Much of this progress is due to the investments we ve made in marketing and card acquisition activities over the past several years. Furthermore, in 2004, we saw the momentum in this metric accelerate, due to the continued strength in our proprietary issuing business as well as particularly strong results within our network business. Slide 13 Of course, growth in cards is not only driven by our success in acquiring new cardmembers, but also in our ability to retain them. In 2003 we committed to our Board to reduce our level of global attrition by 20% over the next five years. We estimated that we could generate $1 billion of incremental revenue by achieving this goal.
So far, we re ahead of schedule. In addition to many attrition-related service programs and initiatives, the continued penetration of Membership Rewards and other loyalty programs has enabled us to drive customer satisfaction and decrease customer attrition. Slide 14 The combination of strong growth in average spend per cardmember and increased cards in force has enabled us to achieve double-digit billings growth across the board.within our proprietary and network businesses, within our various customer segments and, as this slide depicts, within the many geographic regions where we operate. Slide 15 In addition, when looking at billings from a merchant perspective, several categories of both T&E and Everyday Spend merchants benefited from this double-digit billings growth in 2004. Slide 16 This growth has been enabled by expanding merchant acceptance in existing markets, as well as in new markets, where plastic penetration is low. This chart depicts how we categorize and define this opportunity: by assessing where there is significant spend volume that is under-penetrated by plastic. As you can see, the emerging merchant segment which includes categories such as wireless-telecom, and other recurring bills, healthcare, taxes and B2B spending, presents the most significant growth opportunity for us. In addition, the above chart depicts the U.S. market only. As you know, on the whole, our international markets are less mature and less penetrated by plastic. As a result, there are considerable organic growth opportunities to be harvested in our international businesses as well. Slide 17 In addition to our organic growth opportunities, we are also pursuing several expanded growth opportunities, where we leverage existing products and capabilities to deliver growth at the next level. Slide 18 Global Network Services, or as we call it, GNS, is a prime example of an expanded growth opportunity. We have found that GNS strengthens our market presence, drives overall transaction volume and increases our overall merchant acceptance. Since its inception, we have added 8.6 million cards to the GNS network and in 2004 we achieved almost $18 billion of spend through 87 partners worldwide. Our growth in 2004 actually accelerated versus the past five years, where compound annual card and spend growth was 25% and 18%,
respectively. In 2004 GNS partners brought nearly one of every three merchants into our network outside the US, and one of every two cards acquired was by a GNS partner. In 2004 we opened our U.S. network business, with the signing of two premier partners, MBNA and Citibank. MBNA began to issue cards in 2004 with strong initial results, and we should see American Express cards issued by Citibank before the end of 2005. Slide 19 In our February analyst meeting we highlighted two other expanded growth opportunities, the Corporate Middle Market and Prepaid Services, which we also believe have very significant potential. The full presentations are available on our website, but let me take a few minutes to provide you with some key highlights. First, the Corporate Middle Market. Three years ago, we highlighted the tremendous growth we envisioned in this segment and we have delivered on that promise by making the middle market the fastest growing and most profitable Corporate Card Segment; with three year compound annual growth in accounts of 10%, in spend of 28% and in net income of 31%. We define the Middle Market as those firms with $1 million to $1 billion in revenue and between 10 and 2,000 employees. We estimate that this segment represents $287 billion in global spend and over 1.4 million companies worldwide. In addition, while we ve gained good traction in this segment and we see very positive spend penetration trends, overall we estimate that only approximately 22% of middle market spend was on corporate plastic, leaving a significant additional penetration opportunity. Slide 20 Similarly, while less developed than our middle market business, we also consider the prepaid services business to be an expanded growth opportunity as it leverages our existing Traveler s Cheque and merchant network infrastructure, existing product know-how and expertise, but has the potential to drive growth at the next level. According to industry sources, prepaid services also represent a significant spending opportunity worldwide. We have had early success with two products, our Gift Cards and Travelers Cheque cards and, most importantly, the economics for these products, which include high returns and multiple revenue streams, are very promising. Finally, prepaid products will also enable us to continue to displace cash and checks in the marketplace and increase plastic spend on our merchant network. Slide 21 Lastly, acquisitions. Acquisitions have never been a very large part of our growth strategy. We ve been fortunate that, since our organic and expanded opportunities are so strong, we ve not been forced to make acquisitions. Therefore, when an opportunity does present itself, we can be selective in our choices. We ll take advantage of an acquisition assuming it meets our established criteria: it accelerates our business strategy, at acceptable economics, with the right cultural fit. But, unlike some other companies, both inside and outside of our industry, we re not dependent on acquisitions to drive our growth.
In 2003, we had two excellent examples of this approach with the acquisitions of Rosenbluth International and Threadneedle Asset Management, which contributed approximately 2% to 2004 s consolidated revenue growth. Slide 22 I would like to now move onto a discussion around driving returns. Revenue growth is good; it s an important objective. But profitable growth is the ultimate yardstick. In terms of our actual performance, we ve done well on an absolute basis and against our peers. With the exception of 2001, our businesses have generated ROE substantially above our cost of capital, and also above our on average and over time target of 18-20 percent. Within Payments, as I said, there are a range of excellent growth opportunities offering superior returns. And given our confidence in these opportunities, we intend to raise our ROE target from 18% to 20%, to 28% to 30% after the spin-off. Slide 23 Focusing on and maximizing our returns overall enables us to return substantial levels of capital to shareholders. We target returning 65% of capital generated to shareholders on average and over time. Over the past 10 years we have actually exceeded this target and returned 68% of capital to shareholders. After the spin-off we intend to maintain our current dividend and this 65% capital distribution target. Based on last year s earnings, that would give us a dividend payout ratio of 18%. Coupled with our substantial share repurchase activity, our payout levels are quite attractive versus other fee-based, high return companies. Slide 24 The final element of the paradigm that guides how we think about our business is stability. Stability for any company is represented by consistent performance, year in and year out, and this chart shows how we have been able to do just that. As I have already discussed, we want to grow revenues by 8%, grow EPS by 12-15%; and achieve an ROE that falls between 18 and 20 percent. When you look at our performance historically, we achieved these targets in most years since we set them in the early 90 s and on average since then as well. Since 2001, our results have gained momentum. In 2004, we not only met our targets, but we exceeded each by a substantial level. Slide 25 We also achieve this stability by actively managing different levers within the business.
First, risk management. Our approach is to keep our level and types of risk consistent with our business strategy, and then actively manage and balance that risk against the company s long-term interests. To that end, over the last 3 to 4 years we ve taken a number of actions to improve our risk profile and have delivered industry leading credit results within our card activities. We ve also improved our forecasting processes. We have a rolling five quarter forecasting process that has essentially gotten away from the idea of having an annual plan that is static. We're constantly looking forward and trying to scan our opportunities and risks to assure we're appropriately factoring them into our decisions. Stability is also achieved through investment optimization. We determine which incremental investments we can trigger in good times to drive the business. Or alternatively, if business is weak, incremental actions that we should take to cut back spending. In addition, today we have contingency plans in each of our businesses based on their volatility. The more volatile a business is the more flexibility we would expect that business to have, for example, through expense reduction, in order to best position it to meet its targets. Finally, over the last two to three years we ve substantially improved our liquidity profile to the point where alternate funding resources are available to provide uninterrupted funding over a twelve-month period, should access to unsecured debt sources become impaired. All of this implies that we have an ability to manage the business more flexibly, enabling stability. Slide 26 In conclusion, I ve tried to demonstrate that by taking action to strengthen our capabilities within each piece of the paradigm, we are well positioned to generate strong value for our shareholders. We have strong positions in the Payments industry, with a unique breadth and depth of products, customers and geographic regions in which we operate; Across our many businesses we have substantial growth opportunities We have a strong ROE and capital distribution capability; And, we re actively managing our risk profile and striving to ensure stability in the business, even as the environment and conditions may fluctuate. Overall, I believe we have a winning combination, with the ultimate winner, of course, being our shareholders. Thank you and I will be happy to take your questions now.
NOTE RELATING TO NON-GAAP FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES This presentation contains certain non-gaap financial disclosures, which are disclosed on a "managed" basis. Managed basis assumes no securitization transactions in the TRS business segment, i.e., all securitized loans and related income effects are reflected as if they were in the Company's balance sheet and income statement, respectively. Information relating to comparable GAAP financial measures may be found on the relevant slides and on American Express Company's investor relations website at ir.americanexpress.com. INFORMATION RELATING TO FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. The words believe, expect, anticipate, optimistic, intend, plan, aim, will, may, should, could, would, likely, and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the following: the Company s ability to complete the planned spin-off of its AEFA business unit, which is subject to final approval by the Company s Board of Directors, the receipt of necessary regulatory approvals and a favorable tax ruling and/or opinion, and in connection with the proposed spin-off, the Company s ability to capitalize AEFA consistent with rating agency requirements and to manage transition costs and implement effective transition arrangements with AEFA on a post-completion basis; the Company s ability to grow its business and meet or exceed its return on shareholders equity target by reinvesting approximately 35% of annually-generated capital, and returning approximately 65% of such capital to shareholders, over time, which will depend on the Company s ability to manage its capital needs and the effect of business mix, acquisitions and rating agency requirements; consumer and business spending on the Company s travel related services products, particularly credit and charge cards and Travelers Cheques and other prepaid products and growth in card lending balances, which depend in part on the ability to issue new and enhanced card and prepaid products and increase revenues from such products, attract new cardmembers, reduce cardmember attrition, capture a greater share of existing cardmembers spending, sustain premium discount rates on its card products in light of regulatory and market pressures, increase merchant coverage, retain cardmembers after low introductory lending rates have expired, and expand the global network services (GNS) business; the success of the GNS business in partnering with banks in the United States, which will depend in part on the extent to which such business further enhances the Company s brand, allows the Company to leverage its significant processing scale, expands merchant coverage of the network, provides U.S. GNS bank partners the benefits of greater cardmember loyalty and higher spend per customer, and merchant benefits such as greater transaction volume and additional higher spending customers; the continuation of favorable trends, including increased travel and entertainment spending, and the overall level of consumer confidence; successfully cross-selling travel, card and other products and services to the Company s customer base, both in the United States and abroad; the Company s ability to generate sufficient revenues for expanded investment spending, and the ability to capitalize on such investments to improve business metrics; the costs and integration of acquisitions; the ability to control and manage operating, infrastructure, advertising and promotion expenses as business expands or changes, including the ability to accurately estimate the provision for the cost of the Membership Rewards program; the Company s ability to manage credit risk related to consumer debt, business loans, merchant bankruptcies and other credit trends and the rate of bankruptcies, which can affect spending on card products, debt payments by individual and corporate customers and businesses that accept the Company s card products and returns on the Company s investment portfolios; bankruptcies, restructurings or similar events affecting the airline or any other industry representing a significant portion of TRS billed business, including any potential negative effect on particular card products and services and billed business generally that could result from the actual or perceived weakness of key business partners in such industries; the triggering of obligations to make payments to certain co-brand partners, merchants, vendors and customers under contractual arrangements with such parties under certain circumstances; a downturn in the Company s businesses and/or negative changes in the Company s and its subsidiaries credit ratings, which could result in contingent payments under contracts, decreased liquidity and higher borrowing costs; risks associated with the Company s agreements with Delta Air Lines to prepay $500 million for the future purchases of Delta SkyMiles rewards points and to loan up to $75 million to Delta; AEFA s ability to improve investment performance, including attracting and retaining high-quality personnel, and reduce outflows of invested funds; AEFA s ability to develop and introduce new and attractive products to clients in a timely manner and effectively manage the economics in selling a growing volume of non-proprietary mutual funds and other retail financial products to clients; fluctuation in the equity and fixed income markets, which can affect the amount and types of investment products sold by AEFA, the market value of its managed assets, and management, distribution and other fees received based on the value of those assets; fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; fluctuations in interest rates, which impact the Company s borrowing costs, return on lending products and spreads in the insurance, annuity and investment certificate products; accuracy of estimates for the fair value of the assets in the Company s investment portfolio and, in particular, those investments that are not readily marketable, including the valuation of the interest-only strip relating to TRS lending securitizations; the amount of recovery under the Company s insurance policies for losses resulting from the September 11th terrorist attacks; the potential negative effect on the Company s businesses and infrastructure, including information technology, of terrorist attacks, disasters or other catastrophic events in the future; political or economic instability in certain regions or countries, which could affect lending and other commercial activities, among other businesses, or restrictions on convertibility of certain currencies; changes in laws or government regulations, including changes in tax laws or regulations that could result in the elimination of certain tax benefits; outcomes and costs associated with litigation and compliance and regulatory matters; deficiencies and inadequacies in the Company s internal control over financial reporting, which could result in inaccurate or incomplete financial reporting; and competitive pressures in all of the Company s major businesses. A further description of these and other risks and uncertainties can be found in the Company s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004 and its other reports filed with the SEC.