GOOCHLAND COUNTY SCHOOLS FACILITY MASTER PLAN STEERING COMMITTEE #1 JUNE 7, 2017 GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS
A G E N D A Introductions Timeline Steering Committee Roles Futures Presentation Background Data GIS, Enrollment, Capacity, Condition Next Steps & Adjourn GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 1
I N T R O D U C T I O N S Mr. Tracy Richter, REFP/President, Cooperative Strategies Ohio Office Mr. Matt Sachs, GIS Analyst, Cooperative Strategies GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 2
Community Engagement Steering Committee 4 meetings 1 Community Meeting P R O C E S S Data Collection School Condition/Capacity/Adequacy Enrollment & Demographics Curriculum & Academics Scenario Development Combine: Facility Data, Demographics, Educational Framework & Community Input Create Scenarios for: Condition Improvement, Enrollment Balance, etc Recommendations Development School Board Presentation GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 3
T I M E L I N E Meeting Date Time Location Steering Committee #1 Wednesday, June 7th 6 pm - 8:30 pm Goochland High School Room 143 Options Worksession Summer 2017 TBD Steering Committee #2 TBD, August 2017 6 pm - 8:30 pm TBD Community Dialogue TBD, September 2017 6 pm - 8 pm TBD Steering Committee #3 TBD, September 2017 TBD Steering Committee #4 TBD, September/October 2017 TBD Recommendations Development October 2017 - Present Master Plan to Board October 2017 Board Meeting Room GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 4
S T E E R I N G C O M M I T T E E ROLES & RESPONSIBILITIES 1. Serve in an advisory capacity to the School Board, the Consultant and to the District 2. Attend ALL Committee Meetings 3. Review data and be prepared for each meeting 8. Gather feedback from the Community 9. Actively recruit participants for community meetings 10. Facilitate small group discussions at community meetings 4. Be objective and maintain a District level perspective 5. Be open to all possibilities 6. Committee members do not use the media as a platform for personal agendas 7. Communicate work and outcomes to the Community GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 5
S T E E R I N G C O M M I T T E E ROLES & RESPONSIBILITIES Rules of Engagement 1. Speak from the Data 2. Provide constructive criticism 3. Engage in productive dialogue Committee Co-Chairs Nominate Committee Members to serve as Co-Chairs Attend Options Worksession GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 6
FUTURES CONFERENCE GOOCHLAND COUNTY COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS PUBLIC SCHOOLS
E N V I S I O N I N G C H A N G E Creating a Facilities Plan BUT LET S NOT TALK ABOUT FACILITIES!!! ; a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. But the tumult soon subsides. Time makes more converts than reason. Common Sense, Thomas Paine 1776 GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 8
E N V I S I O N I N G C H A N G E Important! To make the most of these exercises you must consider how some current norms are likely to change in the upcoming 5-10- 15 years Standardized test requirements Job descriptions Cost of technology tools & infrastructure Budgets in general Norms for instructional practices GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 9
V I D E O Sir Ken Robinson Changing Paradigms https://www.thersa.org/discover/videos/rsaanimate/2010/10/rsa-animate---changingparadigms GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 10
G L O B A L V I L L A G E Region 2017 2050 Asia 59.6% 54.2% Africa 16.6% 25.5% Europe 9.8% 7.3% Latin America/Caribbean 8.6% 8.1% North America 4.8% 4.5% Oceania 0.5% 0.6% Source: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-region/ GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 11
K E Y L E A R N I N G I N G R E D I E N T S Balancing Skill & Scale, Time & Mastery When we observe without imagining.. TTWWADI When we imagine without observing...fantasy When we test without refining.....judging When refine without testing.....busywork Observing Refining Imagining Testing GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 12
S T U D E N T G O A L S hat do we want our students to be able to do when they leave Goochland County Public Schools to be able to succeed and thrive in the world?.and how do we create learning environments that support this? GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 13
K E Y L E A R N I N G VA R I A B L E S Balancing Skill & Scale, Time & Mastery GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 14
S C H O O L FA C I L I T I E S I N S TA G E S Stage 1: One Room School House GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 15
S C H O O L FA C I L I T I E S I N S TA G E S Stage 2 : Industrial Schools GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 16
S C H O O L FA C I L I T I E S I N S TA G E S Stage 3: Baby Boom Schools GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 17
S C H O O L FA C I L I T I E S I N S TA G E S Stage 4: Open Concept GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 18
S C H O O L FA C I L I T I E S I N S TA G E S Stage 5: Learning Communities GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 19
S C H O O L FA C I L I T I E S I N S TA G E S Stage 6: What do we name this??? GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 20
I M A G I N I N G Y O U R P K - 1 2 S Y S T E M Deconstructing yesterday s school model Exercise What are you doing right? What is the Vision of Education for Goochland County Public Schools? If we don t define how we would operate in an ideal world we cannot expect to lead meaningful change in the real one What are the obstacles in the way? Source: Ken Robinson s Changing Educational Paradigms GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 21
S M A L L G R O U P W O R K Small Group Exercise Please Answer 2 Questions 1. Challenges of the Facilities Plan 2. Expectations of the Facilities Plan GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 22
BACKGROUND DATA GOOCHLAND COUNTY COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Year G E N E R A L D E M O G R A P H I C S BUILDING PERMITS GOOCHLAND COUNTY Single-Family 2000 223 2001 246 2002 267 2003 286 2004 310 2005 380 2006 281 2007 196 2008 98 2009 75 2010 60 2011 47 2012 88 2013 142 2014 127 2015 136 2016 129 2017* 54 Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database *preliminary through March 2017 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Age 2016 2021 Ages 0-2 557 554 Ages 3-4 410 400 Ages 5-10 1,501 1,472 Ages 11-13 894 899 Ages 14-18 1,310 1,412 Ages 5-18 3,705 3,783 Total Population 22,721 23,910 Source: ESRI BIS GOOCHLAND COUNTY POPULATION ESTIMATES GOOCHLAND COUNTY POPULATION ESTIMATES Ages 0-2 Ages 3-4 Ages 5-10 Ages 11-13 Ages 14-18 2016 2021 Background Report Page 7 & 8 GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 24
G E N E R A L D E M O G R A P H I C S Background Report Page 9 LIVE BIRTH COUNTS GOOCHLAND COUNTY Year # of births 2005 198 2006 213 2007 194 2008 209 2009 179 2010 173 2011 151 2012 165 2013 157 2014 185 Source: Virginia Department of Health 250 200 150 100 50 0 LIVE BIRTH COUNTS GOOCHLAND COUNTY Background Report Page 8 GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 25
G E N E R A L D E M O G R A P H I C S Comparison of Enrollment, SF Permits & Births Year Enrollment Single-Fam Permits Births 2002 2,066 267-2003 2,115 286-2004 2,220 310-2005 2,249 380 198 2006 2,312 281 213 2007 2,411 196 194 2008 2,421 98 209 2009 2,453 75 179 2010 2,484 60 173 2011 2,399 47 151 2012 2,351 88 165 2013 2,451 142 157 2014 2,438 127 185 2015 2,566 136-2016 2,594 129-3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Enrollment Single-Fam Permits Births Comparison of SF Permits & Births 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Single-Fam Permits Births GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 26
C O H O RT S U RV I VA L M E T H O D Uses historic live birth data and historic student enrollment to age (or progress) a known population (cohort) throughout the school grades Survival ratios analyzed Projection ratios developed GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 27
S U RV I VA L R AT I O S Survival Ratios - District-wide from to Birth to K K to 1 Birth to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 8 to 9 9 to 10 10 to 11 11 to 12 2007 2008 Inf 102.67% Inf 98.54% 101.81% 107.26% 105.59% 110.84% 101.13% 101.91% 109.04% 103.57% 95.54% 91.10% 2008 2009 Inf 96.84% Inf 96.88% 104.43% 104.14% 100.00% 102.12% 104.89% 100.00% 121.25% 97.93% 85.22% 108.29% 2009 2010 88.89% 102.31% Inf 92.39% 105.38% 97.64% 99.43% 108.33% 101.04% 94.30% 113.41% 100.52% 92.59% 106.94% 2010 2011 75.59% 97.16% 86.36% 93.79% 101.76% 94.39% 96.62% 99.43% 96.63% 96.41% 112.64% 96.06% 84.10% 106.29% 2011 2012 81.96% 94.41% 71.36% 96.49% 95.78% 102.31% 98.38% 103.50% 103.45% 97.51% 120.74% 89.76% 84.62% 103.05% 2012 2013 89.95% 103.77% 85.05% 111.18% 106.67% 107.55% 105.65% 105.49% 98.07% 100.00% 107.65% 88.55% 94.57% 110.30% 2013 2014 78.77% 103.72% 93.30% 103.64% 102.37% 102.84% 98.83% 104.28% 104.17% 99.51% 106.11% 92.89% 99.00% 107.47% 2014 2015 106.36% 113.48% 89.39% 104.10% 108.19% 108.09% 108.29% 105.92% 100.00% 100.50% 115.35% 98.43% 93.88% 108.54% 2015 2016 99.34% 101.63% 108.09% 101.88% 107.88% 103.24% 101.07% 103.57% 101.68% 106.15% 107.96% 97.42% 98.40% 107.07% mean simple all years Inf 101.78% Inf 99.88% 103.81% 103.05% 101.54% 104.83% 101.23% 99.59% 112.68% 96.12% 91.99% 105.45% std. dev. simple all years NA 5.54% NA 5.91% 3.90% 4.60% 3.99% 3.36% 2.73% 3.39% 5.59% 4.92% 5.87% 5.73% mean simple 5 years 91.28% 103.40% 89.44% 103.46% 104.18% 104.81% 102.44% 104.55% 101.47% 100.73% 111.56% 93.41% 94.09% 107.29% std. dev. simple 5 years 11.59% 6.81% 13.31% 5.27% 5.24% 2.78% 4.36% 1.11% 2.50% 3.23% 6.26% 4.43% 5.76% 2.68% mean simple 3 years 94.82% 106.28% 96.93% 103.20% 106.15% 104.73% 102.73% 104.59% 101.95% 102.05% 109.81% 96.25% 97.10% 107.69% std. dev. simple 3 years 14.34% 6.32% 9.87% 1.17% 3.28% 2.92% 4.94% 1.20% 2.10% 3.59% 4.89% 2.95% 2.80% 0.76% mean simple 2 years 102.85% 107.55% 98.74% 102.99% 108.03% 105.67% 104.68% 104.74% 100.84% 103.33% 111.65% 97.93% 96.14% 107.80% std. dev. simple 2 years 4.96% 8.38% 13.23% 1.58% 0.22% 3.43% 5.10% 1.66% 1.19% 4.00% 5.22% 0.71% 3.20% 1.04% mean weighted all years Inf 103.99% Inf 102.33% 105.53% 104.10% 102.39% 104.44% 101.23% 101.50% 110.96% 95.62% 94.82% 107.23% std. dev. weighted all years NA 6.01% NA 4.71% 3.80% 3.64% 4.08% 1.98% 2.25% 3.73% 4.95% 3.92% 5.05% 2.79% mean weighted 5 years 97.64% 104.83% 99.22% 103.04% 106.90% 104.65% 102.83% 104.36% 101.39% 103.32% 109.95% 96.42% 96.73% 107.57% std. dev. weighted 5 years 9.61% 5.89% 11.39% 2.74% 2.91% 2.53% 3.90% 1.15% 1.66% 3.48% 4.30% 3.13% 3.25% 1.30% mean weighted 3 years 99.76% 103.79% 104.23% 102.34% 107.72% 104.08% 102.25% 104.01% 101.48% 104.90% 109.18% 97.42% 97.63% 107.34% std. dev. weighted 3 years 6.13% 5.50% 9.09% 1.08% 1.33% 2.27% 3.45% 1.09% 1.02% 2.94% 3.51% 1.21% 2.13% 0.69% mean weighted 2 years 99.67% 102.19% 107.20% 101.98% 107.90% 103.47% 101.41% 103.68% 101.60% 105.88% 108.31% 97.47% 98.19% 107.14% std. dev. weighted 2 years 2.11% 3.57% 5.63% 0.67% 0.09% 1.46% 2.17% 0.71% 0.50% 1.70% 2.22% 0.30% 1.36% 0.44% GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 28
S U RV I VA L R AT I O S ide Birth to K K to 1 Birth to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 8 to 9 9 to 10 10 to 11 11 to 12 Inf 102.67% Inf 98.54% 101.81% 107.26% 105.59% 110.84% 101.13% 101.91% 109.04% 103.57% 95.54% 91.10% Inf 96.84% Inf 96.88% 104.43% 104.14% 100.00% 102.12% 104.89% 100.00% 121.25% 97.93% 85.22% 108.29% 88.89% 102.31% Inf 92.39% 105.38% 97.64% 99.43% 108.33% 101.04% 94.30% 113.41% 100.52% 92.59% 106.94% 75.59% 97.16% 86.36% 93.79% 101.76% 94.39% 96.62% 99.43% 96.63% 96.41% 112.64% 96.06% 84.10% 106.29% 81.96% 94.41% 71.36% 96.49% 95.78% 102.31% 98.38% 103.50% 103.45% 97.51% 120.74% 89.76% 84.62% 103.05% 89.95% 103.77% 85.05% 111.18% 106.67% 107.55% 105.65% 105.49% 98.07% 100.00% 107.65% 88.55% 94.57% 110.30% 78.77% 103.72% 93.30% 103.64% 102.37% 102.84% 98.83% 104.28% 104.17% 99.51% 106.11% 92.89% 99.00% 107.47% 106.36% 113.48% 89.39% 104.10% 108.19% 108.09% 108.29% 105.92% 100.00% 100.50% 115.35% 98.43% 93.88% 108.54% 99.34% 101.63% 108.09% 101.88% 107.88% 103.24% 101.07% 103.57% 101.68% 106.15% 107.96% 97.42% 98.40% 107.07% Inf 101.78% Inf 99.88% 103.81% 103.05% 101.54% 104.83% 101.23% 99.59% 112.68% 96.12% 91.99% 105.45% NA 5.54% NA 5.91% 3.90% 4.60% 3.99% 3.36% 2.73% 3.39% 5.59% 4.92% 5.87% 5.73% 91.28% 103.40% 89.44% 103.46% 104.18% 104.81% 102.44% 104.55% 101.47% 100.73% 111.56% 93.41% 94.09% 107.29% 11.59% 6.81% 13.31% 5.27% 5.24% 2.78% 4.36% 1.11% 2.50% 3.23% 6.26% 4.43% 5.76% 2.68% 94.82% 106.28% 96.93% 103.20% 106.15% 104.73% 102.73% 104.59% 101.95% 102.05% 109.81% 96.25% 97.10% 107.69% 14.34% 6.32% 9.87% 1.17% 3.28% 2.92% 4.94% 1.20% 2.10% 3.59% 4.89% 2.95% 2.80% 0.76% 102.85% 107.55% 98.74% 102.99% 108.03% 105.67% 104.68% 104.74% 100.84% 103.33% 111.65% 97.93% 96.14% 107.80% 4.96% 8.38% 13.23% 1.58% 0.22% 3.43% 5.10% 1.66% 1.19% 4.00% 5.22% 0.71% 3.20% 1.04% Inf 103.99% Inf 102.33% 105.53% 104.10% 102.39% 104.44% 101.23% 101.50% 110.96% 95.62% 94.82% 107.23% s NA 6.01% NA 4.71% 3.80% 3.64% 4.08% 1.98% 2.25% 3.73% 4.95% 3.92% 5.05% 2.79% 97.64% 104.83% 99.22% 103.04% 106.90% 104.65% 102.83% 104.36% 101.39% 103.32% 109.95% 96.42% 96.73% 107.57% 9.61% 5.89% 11.39% 2.74% 2.91% 2.53% 3.90% 1.15% 1.66% 3.48% 4.30% 3.13% 3.25% 1.30% 99.76% GOOCHLAND 103.79% COUNTY 104.23% PUBLIC 102.34% SCHOOLS 107.72% 104.08% 102.25% 104.01% 101.48% 104.90% 109.18% 97.42% 97.63% 107.34% 29
Background Report Page 10 H I S T O R I C A L E N R O L L M E N T Historical Enrollment - District-wide Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 PK 37 NA NA 40 30 29 52 38 55 77 K 187 190 173 176 161 159 188 141 184 150 1 206 192 184 177 171 152 165 195 160 187 2 166 203 186 170 166 165 169 171 203 163 3 179 169 212 196 173 159 176 173 185 219 4 179 192 176 207 185 177 171 181 187 191 5 166 189 192 175 200 182 187 169 196 189 6 177 184 193 208 174 207 192 195 179 203 7 157 179 193 195 201 180 203 200 195 182 8 177 160 179 182 188 196 180 202 201 207 9 196 193 194 203 205 227 211 191 233 217 10 202 203 189 195 195 184 201 196 188 227 11 191 193 173 175 164 165 174 199 184 185 12 191 174 209 185 186 169 182 187 216 197 Grand Total 2,411 2,421 2,453 2,484 2,399 2,351 2,451 2,438 2,566 2,594 Source: Goochland County Public Schools Historical Enrollment - District-wide Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 PK 37 NA NA 40 30 29 52 38 55 77 K - 5 1,083 1,135 1,123 1,101 1,056 994 1,056 1,030 1,115 1,099 6-8 511 523 565 585 563 583 575 597 575 592 9-12 780 763 765 758 750 745 768 773 821 826 Grand Total 2,411 2,421 2,453 2,484 2,399 2,351 2,451 2,438 2,566 2,594 Source: Goochland County Public Schools GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 30
H I S T O R I C A L E N R O L L M E N T 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Historical Enrollment - District-wide Background Report Page 10 1,000 500 0 Increased by 183 students over the past ten years (2,411 in 2007-08 to 2,594 in 2016-17) GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 31
Background Report Page 12 P R O J E C T E D E N R O L L M E N T MODERATE/RECOMMENDED Projected Enrollment - Moderate/Recommended - District-wide Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 PK 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 K 164 157 185 169 170 172 172 172 172 172 1 156 172 163 192 176 178 179 179 179 179 2 192 159 175 167 197 180 182 183 183 182 3 175 207 173 190 180 211 194 196 197 198 4 227 182 214 180 197 188 221 202 204 205 5 194 233 187 219 183 201 191 225 207 208 6 197 203 242 193 228 191 209 199 234 214 7 206 199 206 245 196 231 194 212 202 238 8 191 216 209 216 257 206 242 203 223 212 9 226 208 236 228 236 281 225 265 222 243 10 211 220 203 230 223 230 274 219 258 216 11 222 206 215 198 224 217 224 267 214 252 12 199 238 222 231 213 241 233 241 287 229 Grand Total 2,637 2,677 2,707 2,735 2,757 2,804 2,817 2,840 2,859 2,825 Source: Cooperative Strategies Projected Enrollment - Moderate/Recommended - District-wide Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 PK 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 K - 5 1,108 1,110 1,097 1,117 1,103 1,130 1,139 1,157 1,142 1,144 6-8 594 618 657 654 681 628 645 614 659 664 9-12 858 872 876 887 896 969 956 992 981 940 Grand Total 2,637 2,677 2,707 2,735 2,757 2,804 2,817 2,840 2,859 2,825 Source: Cooperative Strategies GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 32
P R O J E C T E D E N R O L L M E N T MODERATE/RECOMMENDED Projected Enrollment - Moderate/Recommended - by School School 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Trend Byrd Elementary 345 345 349 358 360 367 369 375 371 370 Goochland Elementary 350 358 353 369 366 375 377 383 378 379 Goochland High 858 872 876 887 896 969 956 992 981 940 Goochland Middle 594 618 657 654 681 628 645 614 659 664 Randolph Elementary 490 484 472 467 454 465 470 476 470 472 Total 2,637 2,677 2,707 2,735 2,757 2,804 2,817 2,840 2,859 2,825 Source: Cooperative Strategies 3,500 Projected Enrollment - Moderate/Recommended - District-wide Background Report Page 13 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Projected increase of 163 students in the next five years GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 33
Background Report Page 14 P R O J E C T E D E N R O L L M E N T HIGH Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 PK 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 K 171 162 192 176 177 178 178 178 178 178 1 162 184 175 207 189 191 192 192 192 192 2 194 167 190 181 214 195 197 199 199 198 3 179 214 184 210 200 235 215 218 218 220 4 230 188 226 194 222 212 249 228 230 232 5 197 240 196 233 202 230 219 258 236 238 6 198 207 250 205 244 211 240 229 269 246 7 207 201 211 255 209 249 215 245 233 275 8 193 220 214 224 271 222 264 228 260 248 9 229 214 243 237 248 300 245 293 253 288 10 213 225 210 239 232 243 294 240 287 248 11 224 210 221 207 235 229 239 290 237 283 12 199 241 226 238 223 253 246 258 312 255 Grand Total 2,673 2,750 2,815 2,883 2,943 3,025 3,070 3,133 3,181 3,178 Source: Cooperative Strategies Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 PK 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 K - 5 1,133 1,155 1,163 1,201 1,204 1,241 1,250 1,273 1,253 1,258 6-8 598 628 675 684 724 682 719 702 762 769 9-12 865 890 900 921 938 1,025 1,024 1,081 1,089 1,074 Grand Total 2,673 2,750 2,815 2,883 2,943 3,025 3,070 3,133 3,181 3,178 Source: Cooperative Strategies GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 34
P R O J E C T E D E N R O L L M E N T HIGH Projected Enrollment - High - by School School 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Trend Byrd Elementary 350 354 363 375 380 389 391 398 393 394 Goochland Elementary 356 368 369 390 392 400 404 411 404 406 Goochland High 865 890 900 921 938 1,025 1,024 1,081 1,089 1,074 Goochland Middle 598 628 675 684 724 682 719 702 762 769 Randolph Elementary 504 510 508 513 509 529 532 541 533 535 Total 2,673 2,750 2,815 2,883 2,943 3,025 3,070 3,133 3,181 3,178 Source: Cooperative Strategies 3,500 3,000 Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide Background Report Page 15 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Projected increase of 349 students in the next five years GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 35
G I S GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS Data Collection Student databases Attendance boundaries School points Other geographic features Background Report Page 18 GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 36
Background Report Page 19 G I S STUDENT DENSITY MAP GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 37
Background Report Page 17 L I V E / AT T E N D A N A LY S I S Attend Live-In Goochland County Public Schools K-12 Live/Attend Byrd Elementary School Goochland Elementary School Byrd Elementary School 291 3 3 - - 297 6 2.0% Goochland Elementary School 9 297 9 - - 315 18 5.7% Randolph Elementary School 1-437 - - 438 1 0.2% Goochland Middle School - - - 583-583 - - Goochland High School - - - - 809 809 - - Out of District/Unmatched 4 11 4 6 10 35 - - Attend 305 311 453 589 819 Live & Attend 291 297 437 583 809 Transfer In 14 14 16 6 10 % Transfer In 4.6% 4.5% 3.5% 1.0% 1.2% Randolph Elementary School Goochland Middle School Goochland High School Live-In Transfer Out % Transfer Out Total K-12 Students: 2,477 GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 38
S U B D I V I S I O N A N A LY S I S The table below details the average single-family and multi-family yields, by elementary attendance boundary, of known subdivisions. Attendance Boundary Average Single-Family Yields Average Multi-Family Yields K-5 Yield 6-8 Yield 9-12 Yield K-12 Yield K-5 Yield 6-8 Yield 9-12 Yield K-12 Yield Byrd Elementary Zone 0.14 0.08 0.12 0.34 - - - - Goochland Elementary Zone 0.2 0.13 0.15 0.47 - - - - Randolph Elementary Zone 0.08 0.04 0.06 0.18 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 All Subdivision Yield numbers are in draft form, based on current data available and subject to change GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 39
S T U D E N T P O T E N T I A L The table below details the average single-family and multi-family yields, by elementary attendance boundary, of known subdivisions. New Units and Student Potential by K-5 Attendance Boundary School Name Single-Family Multi-Family Total K-5 Potential Byrd ES - - - - Goochland ES 223-223 45 Randolph ES 2,743 685 3,428 226 Total 2,966 685 3,651 271 New Units and Student Potential by 6-8 Attendance Boundary School Name Single-Family Multi-Family Total 6-8 Potential Goochland MS 2,966 685 3,651 146 New Units and Student Potential by 9-12 Attendance Boundary School Name Single-Family Multi-Family Total 9-12 Potential Goochland HS 2,966 685 3,651 205 District-Wide Number of New Units and Student Potential District-Wide Single-Family Multi-Family Total K-12 Potential Total 2,966 685 3,651 621 All Student Potential numbers are in draft form, based on current data available and subject to change GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 40
ASSESSMENTS GOOCHLAND COUNTY COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS PUBLIC SCHOOLS
C A PA C I T Y A N A LY S I S METHODOLOGY Teaching Spaces Available Capacity Educational Program Community Choice GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 42
FA C I L I T I E S E VA L U AT I O N CONDITION ASSESSMENT Building System & Component Level Analysis GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 43
E D U C AT I O N A L A D E Q U A C Y Differentiated Learning Real-World Skills STUDENT CENTERED LEARNING Project-Based Learning Multiple Modalities GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 44
Component Replacement Modernization FCI Component Replacement Modernization or Replacement 0.90 FA C I L I T I E S E VA L U AT I O N CONDITION ASSESSMENT 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Facility Modernization Cost over Time GOOCHLAND COUNTY PUBLIC SCHOOLS 45