Planning and Disaster Risk Reduction in Latin America

Planning and Disaster Risk Reduction in Latin America Omar D. Bello, Ph.D. Economic Affairs Officer Disaster Risk Reduction and Response Unit ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean Disaster assessment methodology Bangkok February 18, 2015

1. Data on disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) 2. Background of planning and disaster risk reduction in LAC 3. The case of Costa Rica 4. The case of Guatemala 5. The case of Peru 6. Stilysed facts of Damage and Losses Assessments and the relationship to ex-ante planning

Number of Disasters Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

Central America: Deaths due to Weather Related Disasters 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

The Caribbean: Deaths due to Weather Related Disasters 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

South America: Deaths due to Weather Related Disasters 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

Central America: Deaths related to a geophysical Disasters 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

The Caribbean: Deaths related to a geophysical Disasters 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

South America: Deaths related to a geophysical Disasters 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

Central America: Affected population due to a Weather Related Disasters 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

The Caribbean: Affected population due to a Weather Related Disasters Caribe: Número total de afectados por desastres climáticos 7000000 7000000 6000000 6000000 5000000 5000000 4000000 4000000 3000000 3000000 2000000 2000000 1000000 1000000 0 0 Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

South America: Affected population due to a Weather Related Disasters 40000000 35000000 30000000 25000000 20000000 15000000 10000000 5000000 0 Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

Central America: Affected population due to a Geophysical Disasters 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

The Caribbean: Affected population due to Geophysical Disasters 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

South America: Affected population due to Geophysical Disasters 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

Central America: Damage/GDP for Weather Related Disasters 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

The Caribbean: Damage/GDP for Weather Related Disasters 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

South America: Damage/GDP for Weather Related Disasters 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

Central America: Damage/GDP due to Geophysical Disasters 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

The Caribbean: Damage/GDP due to Geophysical Disasters 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

South America: Damage/GDP due to Geophysical Disasters 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

World Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

Latin America and the Caribbean Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

Deaths per Thousand Inhabitants Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

Affected Population per Thousand of Inhabitants Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine

Latin America and the Caribbean 0.40% a) a un shock en tormentas 0.40% b) a un shock en otros desastres climáticos 0.20% 0.20% 0.00% -0.20% 1 2 3 4 5 0.00% -0.20% 1 2 3 4 5-0.40% -0.40% -0.60% -0.60% 0.40% c) a un shock en desastre geológico 2.00% d) a un shock en el PIB de los países de ingresos altos 0.20% 1.50% 0.00% -0.20% -0.40% 1 2 3 4 5 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% 1 2 3 4 5 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% -0.20% e) a un shock en los términos de intercambio 1 2 3 4 5 0.20% 0.00% -0.20% -0.40% -0.60% f) a un shock en la tasa de interés internacional 1 2 3 4 5

The Caribbean 0.50% a) a un shock en tormentas 0.20% b) a un shock en otros desastres climáticos 0.00% -0.50% 1 2 3 4 5 0.00% -0.20% 1 2 3 4 5-1.00% -0.40% -1.50% -0.60% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% -0.20% -0.40% -0.60% c) a un shock en desastre geológico 1 2 3 4 5 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% d) a un shock en el PIB de los países de ingresos altos 1 2 3 4 5 1.50% e) a un shock en los términos de intercambio 1.00% f) a un shock en la tasa de interés internacional 1.00% 0.50% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% 1 2 3 4 5 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% 1 2 3 4 5

Central America 1.00% 0.50% a) a un shock en tormentas 0.70% b) a un shock en otros desastres climáticos 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% 1 2 3 4 5 0.20% -0.30% 1 2 3 4 5-1.50% -0.80% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% -0.20% -0.40% c) a un shock en desastre geológico 1 2 3 4 5 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% d) a un shock en el PIB de los países de ingresos altos 1 2 3 4 5 e) a un shock en los términos de intercambio f) a un shock en la tasa de interés internacional 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% -0.20% -0.40% 1 2 3 4 5 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% 1 2 3 4 5

The need to improve urban and rural infrastructure, and the development of sectoral plans and infrastructure, especially transport and energy, in the 1950s and early 1960s marked the beginning of the planning process in Latin America, which was formalized creating planning economic entities in order to strengthen the operational capacity of the public administration. Creation of public enterprises. increased. The size of the central government

Goal: economic growth (at that time it was equivalent to economic development) Economic growth does not necessarily reduce volatility to natural hazards Economic growth normally creates new forms of vulnerability or exacerbate existing ones There was no attention to disaster risk reduction topic. The decline of this model is associated with the external debt crisis (1982)

Policies on disaster have being reactive Milestones related to the issue of disasters and public policy: Mexico City earthquake, Mexico (1985) Armero, Colombia (1986) Mitch (1998), several Central America countries After those disasters started in those countries a process to generate institution that deal with disasters At the beginning it was focus on disaster management: response to emergencies, and early warnings

LAC: Deadliest Disasters 1970-89 Year Country Type Deaths Aff. Population 1970 PER Earthquake 66,794 3,216,240 1972 NIC Earthquake 10,000 720,000 1973 HND Mudslide 2,800 1974 HND Storm 8,000 600,000 1974 BRA Epidemic 1,500 30,000 1976 GTM Earthquake 23,000 4,993,000 1979 DOM Storm 1,400 1,554,000 1985 COL Volcanic eruption 21,800 12,700 1985 MEX Earthquake 9,500 2,130,204 1987 ECU Earthquake 5,000 150,000

LAC: Deadliest Disasters 1990-2010 Year Country Type Deaths Aff. Population 1991 PER Epidemic 8,000 1991 PER Epidemic 1,726 283,353 1998 HND Storm 14,600 2,112,000 1998 NIC Storm 3,332 868,228 1999 VEN Floods 30,000 483,635 2004 HTI Storm 2,754 315,594 2004 HTI Floods 2,665 31,283 2005 GTM Storm 1,513 475,314 2010 HTI Earthquake 222,570 3,700,000 2010 HTI Epidemic 5,592 378,638

1. Knowledge of disaster risk 2. Risk Reduction Prevention Mitigation 3. Disaster Management Preparedness Response 4. Rehabilitation Disaster assessment Rebuilding Financial Protection

The prospective risk management comprises the set of actions to prevent the formation of new conditions of risk, which may arise with the development of new investments and projects in the territory to disregard location criteria, construction and safe operation. The implementation of this approach has being relatively new in Latin America Integrating disaster risk reduction measures/ policies within national public policies could help to achieve sustainable development. This could be more important on a climate change context. The expected impacts of those policies would be Preserving achieved poverty reduction Strenghting hazard resilience.

Costa Rica

Established in 1969 Ascribed to the Presidency of the Republic 2006: National Emergencies and Risk Prevention Act (N 8488) Introduces the concept of risk prevention Regulates the State s extraordinary activities in an emergency Empowers the CNE to coordinate the National Risk Management System

Promote integrated, organized and harmonic coordination between structures, methods, procedures and resources of all state institutions, including participation from the private sector and civil society. Promote and implement public policy guidelines, which incorporate the concept of risk management as a cross- cutting element in planning and development.

National risk management policy Commitment incorporated in the National Development Plan (PND) 2006-2010 Strategic pillar: Social development and fight against poverty Instrument of strategic planning International commitments (Hyogo Framework for Action)

1. Poverty alleviation and increased resilience 2. Regulatory mechanisms and instruments for risk management 3. Investment in and development of public infrastructure 4. Participation for local risk management 5. Development and dissemination of knowledge and use of pertinent technologies 6. Preparedness and response to emergencies and disasters 7. Recovery and reconstruction

Established in 2008 (Executive Decree 34694 MIDEPLAN- Hacienda). Incorporation of disaster risk reduction (DRR) in the formulation and evaluation of investment projects. Reduce the impact of disasters on the fiscal deficit GDP: average loss of 0.83% between 2005 and 2009 Supported by CEPREDENAC Bank of Public Investment Projects (BPIP)

Prospective study: threat, exposure and vulnerability Objective: incorporate disaster risk reduction analyses and alternatives in the pre- investment stages (profile, prefeasibility, feasibility and design) as part of the cost and benefit estimations

Threats Site Exposu re Fragilit y Mitigation & Preventio n Identify vulnerability Quantify damages and losses Risk reduction measures Mitigation and prevention costs and benefits

Database of public investment projects Support planning, programming, budgeting, monitoring, control and evaluation of public investments Basic information: Linkages with the National Development Plan Objectives, description Expected outcomes Financing Risk analysis Environmental analysis Financial and/ or socioeconomic indicators

Central Bank Ministry of Finance Final approval Negotiation process Register in the BPIP

Guatemala

1987-2005: the National Pre- investment Financing System (SINAFIP) managed financing lines (IDB) 1990s: set the foundations for the National Public Investment System: Creation of a fund to finance studies and designs Importance of elaborating public investments programs Project database

Presidential Secretariat for Planning and Programming (SEGEPLAN): coordinates and prioritizes public investment SEGEPLAN + Ministry of Finance: determine the national policy to formulate, prioritize, evaluate and select investment projects, and sources of financing

Guidelines Public Investment Directorate Updates and issues annual guidelines Establishes annual priorities Establishes information requirements and procedures Incorporation of a technical evaluation of the projects (2001) Incorporation of natural, economic and social risk analyses (threats and vulnerabilities) as an additional criterion (2010)

Next steps Draft bill to strengthen and institutionalize the National Public Investment System Organize and unify guidelines Prioritize economically and socially feasible projects Support descentralization Increase public participation

CEPREDENAC

Pertaining to the Central American Integration System Mandate: promote activities, projects and programs intended to reduce disaster risks that could cause human and economic losses due to socio- natural factors Promotes and coordinates international cooperation and exchanges of information and expertise Provides technical and scientific assistance

Regional Instruments 1999: Strategic Framework for the Reduction of Vulnerabilities and Disasters in Central America Immediate antecedent: Hurricane Mitch Regional Plan for the Reduction of Disasters 2006-2015 2011: Comprehensive Risk Management Regional Policy for Central America

Perú

1990s Weakening of the housing institutionalism Disorganized urban sprawl Rural- urban migration Weak urban planning 2000s National Plan for Urban Development National Housing Plan National Sanitation Plan Ecological- Economic Zoning Models Construction Code Other relevant regulations Strengthening of the national planning system

Established in 2000 Coordinated by the Ministry of Finance It was modified in 2002 Incorporation of risk in development planning Promotion of sustainability Creation of the Multisectoral Commission for the Prevention and Attention of Disasters

Follow and comply the established guidelines Incorporate specific structural and non- structural measures to prevent and mitigate disaster risks To be declared viable, projects must be: Socially viable Sustainable Compatible with policy guidelines (national, sectoral and local)

Identification Phase Analysis of hazardous scenarios Technical analysis Site analysis Analysis of construction and operation technologies Exposure analysis Analysis of factors that could create fragility Analysis of the response capacity Organization and management Analysis of the response capacity and service recovery Resilience

1. Knowledge of disaster risk 2. Risk Reduction Prevention Mitigation 3. Disaster Management Preparedness Response 4. Rehabilitation Disaster assessment Rebuilding Financial Protection

Indicators by the Inter American Development Bank 4 indexes of dissater risk management were developed by the Institute of Environmental Studies of the National University of Colombia, Manizales. The Project was funded by the IADB. These indexes are: a) Disaster Deficit Index b) Local Disaster Index c) Prevalent Vulnerability Index d) Risk Management index

This system of indicators has a set of desirable features such as a) they summarizes the presentation of information on risk b) measure key elements of vulnerability c) easy to understand by policymakers, and d) allow cluster and comparison among countries. They cover different aspects of the risk problematic and takes into account aspects such as: potential damage and loss due to the probability of extreme events, recurrent disasters or losses, socio-environmental conditions that facilitate disasters, capacity for macroeconomic recovery, behaviour of key services, institutional capacity and the effectiveness of basic risk management instruments such as risk dentification, prevention and mitigation measures, financial mechanisms and risk transfer,emergency response levels and preparedness and recovery capacity

DALA methodology will be used as one of the indicators of goal 1 of the SDG Past DALAs could be used to determine stilysed facts about the damage and losses estimate profile by sector. It would be an important input for any planning process. Hurricanes & Storms Extreme precipitations The Caribbean: Different disasters (%) Social Infrastructure Productive 28.2 8.3 61.8 1.6 66.7 31.6 Geophysical 79.6 6.6 11.3

Hurricanes & Storms The Caribbean: Different disasters Extreme precipitations (%) Social Infrastructure Productive 6.1 15.4 74.3 43.7 38.2 18.1 Geophysical 47 22.1 30.9

20% 52% 28% Productivo Infraestructura Social

10% 9% 24% 57% Vivienda Edificios públicos Salud Educación

8% 7% 85% Transporte Energía Agua y Saneamiento

10% 10% 80% Agropecuario y Forestal Industria Comercio y Servicios

13% 16% 71% Productivo Infraestructura Social

8% 32% 60% Vivienda Salud Educación

15% 21% 64% Transporte Energía Agua y Saneamiento

9% 21% 70% Agropecuario y Forestal Industria Comercio y Servicios