1 APRIL 2018 Geopolitical Premium Pushes Oil Higher IN THIS ISSUE Geopolitical risks are rising following the (likely) appointments of Mike Pompeo and John Bolton to US President Donald Trump s foreign policy team and this increases the potential for disruptions to oil trade and supply. The recent launch of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Chinese crude futures contract is also adding further uncertainty with market participants unsure as to how it will trade relative to current oil futures benchmarks. Geopolitical Premium Pushes Oil Higher Page 1 2 US Technology Stocks under Pressure? Page 3 Read more on page 2 > Market Performance How Will A Trade War Affect EM? Page 4 In the US the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all declined by -1.77%, -1.87% and -2.68% respectively. However, the European Stoxx 600 climbed 1.04% while the Nikkei 225 and the Topix were up by 1.29% and 0.47% respectively. The MSCI Emerging Markets lost - 0.95%, the decline of which was led by MSCI EM Middle East & Africa (-3.55%). Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Europe and MSCI AsiaXJapan lost -2.00% and -0.63% respectively. EUR May Appreciate in the Medium Term Page 5 Model Portfolios Page 6 MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 1 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT A BANK DEPOSIT. NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED. NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE.
Geopolitical Premium Pushes Oil Higher (continued) The recent movement of crude price has seemed akin to the classic geopolitical premium trading environment as futures have spiked, percentage of volume has risen despite higher prices and yet few barrels have been lost (yet) and physical crude markets are still soft. The geopolitical premium, potentially sizeable crude builds in March or April and a flurry of potential geopolitical flashpoints occurring in May look likely to keep oil markets choppy in the second quarter of this year according to Citi analysts. Despite no Iranian barrels being disrupted yet, the potential for disrupted supplies from Iran and Latin America has increased with John Bolton s appointment as US National Security Advisor. Bolton is a notable foreign policy hawk and a vocal critic of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal, making it more likely that Trump won t sign the sanctions waiver that is due no later than 12 May. The issue for oil markets is how to price this risk, as the decision doesn t have a binary outcome and the timing is highly uncertain. Financial flows continue to play a crucial role in price formation and Citi analysts believe the market may be positioned for a move to the upside in the near term although Citi s structural view on the oil market remains bearish into 2019. Citi s forecast for Brent prices are $59 per barrel in 2018 and $49 per barrel for 2019. Global oil demand (million barrels per day) Citi analysts believe the market may be positioned for a move to the upside in the near term. Source: EIA, FGE, IEA, JODI, NBS, PPAC, Citi Research. As of 27 March 2018. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 2
US Technology Stocks under Pressure? Several top US technology stocks fell in March over growth, safety and privacy concerns are they still attractive? Rising concerns over the safety of self-driving cars, privacy on social media and whether the tech bubble is about to burst has sent US technology stocks tumbling. In addition, reports that US President Donald Trump will crack down on Chinese companies investing in certain types of US tech companies has added fuel to the fire. But EU threats regarding new digital revenue taxes, social media investigations and alleged monopolistic behavior all were seen as passing risks but not that substantive according to Citi analysts. Technology stocks comprise roughly 25% of the S&P 500 market cap and Citi has been overweight on the sector. According to Citi analysts, the good news is that IT demand is still strong and not excessively valued as was in place in 1999/2000. According to Citi Technology as the best-performing sector in 2017: Price Performance (US$) analysts, IT demand is still strong and not excessively valued. Source: Citi Research, MSCI, Factset. As of 4 January 2018. The IT sector has indeed seen its profits climb sharply, more than already-high US profits generally. But unlike 1999, the IT sector has only seen its valuation climb slightly above its earnings contribution a far more mild valuation risk than was the case in 1999. Also quite unlike 1999 Citi analysts see no massive, obvious excesses in IT fundamentals to unwind. As such, Citi maintains a cautious but overweight view on the technology sector. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 3
How Will A Trade War Affect EM? Many Emerging Markets are dependent on trade what will happen to EM equities in the event of a trade war? Emerging market (EM) economies get their liquidity via both the trade channel and capital flows, which boosts the asset side of the central banks balance sheets thereby boosting domestic liquidity and asset prices. As such, anything that slows or reverses trade or capital flows is negative for EM equities. Some regions more than others but in aggregate, all are head lower. Asia is the most open of the three EM regions to trade and has the most connections along the global value chain, so trade issues matter most to Asia. According to Citi, yearto-date earnings growth forecasts for EM have increased but that may reverse depending on the severity of the trade issues. EM as an asset class is very export dependent. Asia the largest region is the most export-dependent part of EM and some of the larger markets such as Korea and Taiwan are especially vulnerable to a slowdown in trade. EM exports size relative to GDP Increased trade tensions is not Citi s view. Source: Citi Research. As of 16 March 2018. The effect of less trade on EM liquidity is negative. It is also negative for corporate profitability. EM isn t expensive by and large but under a trade war scenario, Citi believes it can certainly become cheaper. Nevertheless, Citi analysts do not expect a trade war and continue to remain overweight on EM equities. In terms of sectors, EM consumer and telecoms are the least risky with the highest quality attributes. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 4
EUR May Appreciate in the Medium Term The USD may be on the decline, but the medium-term outlook is bright for the EUR. Citi analysts remain bearish on the US dollar for the medium term, as the US has already seen a sharp deterioration in the trend of the net international asset position and will now run the largest twin deficits in recent history (outside of the global financial crisis period). Meanwhile, the EUR has established a solid base over the 2015-2017 period. As Citi anticipates progressively less accommodative European Central Bank (ECB) policy, further appreciation is likely although slightly lower soft (relative) data momentum in the eurozone and dovish ECB soundings have taken some steam out of the uptrend. As Citi anticipates DM & EM Forecasts Path progressively less accommodative European Central Bank (ECB) policy, further EUR appreciation is likely. Source: Citi Research. As of March 2018. With only a year to go until Britain leaves the European Union, very little has been agreed in terms of trade. Citi analysts see the Irish border issue as a major potential stumbling block to the negotiations and represents the biggest downside risk to the GBP. While Asian currencies may be most directly in the firing line of the Trump administration when it comes to tariffs, this threat can also work to strengthen them as it reduces the extent of intervention by local authorities. Citi analysts see most upside in MYR, but also think that IDR and PHP can do well. Despite heightened risk surrounding potential trade wars from the US administration, the continued robustness of Asian currencies versus the USD is likely a boon for the AUD as the two have traded virtually in lockstep this year. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 5
2Q18 Model Portfolios Risk Level 2: Conservative Weight Change (QoQ) Global Investment Grade Bonds 44% 1% APAC ex JP / Emerging Market Bonds 47% -1% Cash 9% 0% Risk Level 3: Moderate Weight Change (QoQ) Global Investment Grade Bonds 24% 3% Global High Yield Bonds 2% 0% APAC ex JP / Emerging Market Bonds 12% 0% US Equities 25% -1% Europe Equities 10% 0% Japan Equities 4% 0% Asia ex Japan Equities 20% -1% Cash 3% -1% Risk Level 4: Aggressive Weight Change (QoQ) Global Investment Grade Bonds 10% 2% Global High Yield Bonds 0% -1% APAC ex JP / Emerging Market Bonds 5% 0% US Equities 29% -1% Europe Equities 12% 1% Japan Equities 5% 0% Asia ex Japan Equities 23% -1% GEM ex-asia 2% 0% Hedge Funds 14% 0% Risk Level 5/6: Very Aggressive / Specialized Weight Change (QoQ) US Equities 34% 0% Europe Equities 15% 1% Japan Equities 6% 0% Asia ex Japan Equities 28% -1% GEM ex-asia 2% 0% Hedge Funds 15% 0% MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 6
World Market at a Glance Last price 52-Week 52-Week Historical Returns (%) 30-Mar-18 High Low 1 week 1 month 1 year Year-to-date US / Global Dow Jones Industrial Average 24103.11 26616.71 20379.55 2.42% -1.77% 16.28% -2.49% S&P 500 2640.87 2872.87 2328.95 2.03% -1.87% 11.52% -1.22% NASDAQ 7063.45 7637.27 5805.15 1.01% -2.68% 19.43% 2.32% Europe MSCI Europe 476.05 523.74 418.81 0.84% 0.77% 11.38% -2.41% Stoxx Europe 600 370.87 403.72 362.04 1.38% 1.04% -2.52% -4.70% FTSE100 7056.61 7792.56 6866.94 1.95% -0.19% -4.25% -8.21% CAC40 5167.30 5567.03 4980.41 1.41% 0.60% 1.53% -2.73% DAX 12096.73 13596.89 11726.62 1.77% 1.54% -1.30% -6.35% Japan NIKKEI225 21454.30 24129.34 18224.68 4.06% 1.29% 12.54% -5.76% Topix 1716.30 1911.31 1452.15 3.08% 0.47% 12.35% -5.57% Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Market 1170.88 1278.53 950.99-0.10% -0.95% 20.78% 1.07% MSCI Latin America 3032.91 3243.07 2423.52 1.05% -1.07% 14.08% 7.24% MSCI Emerging Europe 172.29 187.38 136.46-1.53% -2.00% 15.04% 4.05% MSCI EM Middle East & Africa 291.33 324.53 246.60-2.74% -3.55% 12.65% -1.60% Brazil Bovespa 85365.56 88317.83 60314.70 1.17% -0.46% 30.80% 11.73% Russia RTS 1249.41 1339.41 958.83-0.95% -0.97% 9.86% 8.23% Asia MSCI Asia ex-japan 716.55 780.56 575.37 0.16% -0.63% 22.46% 0.43% Australia S&P/ASX 200 5759.37 6150.00 5629.80-1.05% -2.86% -2.32% -5.04% China HSCEI (H-shares) 11998.34 13962.53 9882.17-1.07% -1.68% 15.86% 2.47% China Shanghai Composite 3168.90 3587.03 3016.53 0.51% -2.63% -1.29% -4.18% Hong Kong Hang Seng 30093.38 33484.08 23723.87-0.71% -1.60% 23.84% 0.58% India Sensex30 32968.68 36443.98 29241.48 1.14% -3.17% 11.20% -3.20% Indonesia JCI 6188.99 6693.47 5555.37-0.35% -5.98% 10.66% -2.62% Malaysia KLCI 1863.46 1880.56 1708.48-0.09% 0.40% 6.53% 3.71% Korea KOSPI 2445.85 2607.10 2117.82 1.20% 1.82% 12.99% -0.88% Philippines PSE 7979.83 9078.37 7301.69 0.11% -5.66% 8.83% -6.76% Singapore STI 3427.97 3611.69 3113.90 0.19% -1.47% 8.03% 0.74% Taiwan TAIEX 10906.22 11270.18 9622.25 0.77% 1.94% 10.74% 2.47% Thailand SET 1776.26 1852.51 1531.68-1.00% -1.97% 12.43% 1.29% Commodity Oil 64.94 66.66 42.05-1.43% 6.02% 28.98% 7.48% Gold spot 1325.00 1366.18 1204.68-1.65% 0.17% 6.63% 1.68% Source: Citi Research as of 30 March 2018. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 7
Asia Model Portfolio This section shows the revisions to asset allocations decided by Citibank Asia Model Portfolio Committee on 15 March 2018. Citibank s Asia Model Portfolios provide a guide to possible diversification of investment portfolios and serve as an asset allocation reference tool both for periodic evaluation and prospective investments. Citibank Model Portfolios are developed by Citibank s inhouse Global and Regional investment specialists to cater to investors with various risk profiles (based on Citibank s risk assessment) and provide them with: Diversified asset allocations, made uniquely relevant for Asian investors Up-to-date asset allocations which are reviewed and revised periodically by Citibank s Research teams to reflect changing market conditions in respect of relevant asset classes Access to our best-in-class research from the Global Investment Committee It is important to note that while Citibank Model Portfolios represent Citibank s best thinking in terms of asset allocation and diversification, they serve only as a guideline for investors based on certain risk profiles. Market movements, changing market views, time horizons and liquidity constraints (among others) may result in a portfolio s asset allocation deviating from the model allocation. Citibank does not monitor and/or manage individual customer portfolios. For a long term investor, it is advantageous to diversify his/her investment portfolio and consider using Citibank Model Portfolios as a reference in diversification reviews. The suggested allocations are intended to be general in nature and are not to be construed as specific investment advice. Investors are encouraged to consult with their Relationship Managers to determine their allocation needs based on their risk tolerance, suitability and goals. Model Portfolio Disclaimers Investment products are (a) not insured by any government agency; (b) not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, the depository institution; and (c) subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results: prices can go up or down. This is neither an offer nor solicitation to purchase or sell any security, other investment or service or to attract any funds or deposits. This document does not constitute the distribution of any information or the making of any offer or solicitation by any one in any jurisdiction in which such distribution or offer is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to distribute such document or make any offer or solicitation. Investors investing in investment products denominated in non-local currency should be aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations that may cause a loss of principal. Investment products are not available to US Persons and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Portfolio diversification is an important element for an investor to consider when making investment decisions. Concentrated positions may entail greater risks than a diversified portfolio. Certain factors that affect the assessment of whether your overall investment portfolio is sufficiently diversified may not be evident from a review of only your account with Citibank. It therefore is important that you carefully review your entire investment portfolio to ensure that it meets your investment goals and is within your risk tolerance, including your objectives for asset and issuer diversification. To discuss your asset allocations and potential strategies to reduce the risk and/or volatility of a concentrated position, please contact your personal banker/relationship manager. Citibank s Model Portfolio is not a program or offering, but is a diversification tool that is meant for reference purposes only. Model Portfolios are: (i) not binding on the part of the customers; (ii) not monitored by Citibank with respect to customers individual investment holdings; and (iii) not personalized to the specific needs of any individual customer. Citibank s Model Portfolios are not available to US Persons and may not be available in all jurisdictions. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 8
Disclaimer Citi analysts refers to investment professionals within Citi Research ( CR ), Citi Global Markets Inc. ( CGMI ) and voting members of the Citi Global Investment Committee. Citibank N.A. and its affiliates / subsidiaries provide no independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this document. The information in this document has been obtained from reports issued by CGMI. Such information is based on sources CGMI believes to be reliable. CGMI, however, does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute CGMI's judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. This document is for general information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or currency. No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner without the written consent of Citibank N.A. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular investor. Any person considering an investment should consider the appropriateness of the investment having regard to their objectives, financial situation, or needs, and should seek independent advice on the suitability or otherwise of a particular investment. Investments are not deposits, are not obligations of, or guaranteed or insured by Citibank N.A., Citigroup Inc., or any of their affiliates or subsidiaries, or by any local government or insurance agency, and are subject to investment risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Investors investing in funds denominated in non-local currency should be aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations that may cause a loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, prices can go up or down. Some investment products (including mutual funds) are not available to US persons and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Investors should be aware that it is his/her responsibility to seek legal and/or tax advice regarding the legal and tax consequences of his/her investment transactions. If an investor changes residence, citizenship, nationality, or place of work, it is his/her responsibility to understand how his/her investment transactions are affected by such change and comply with all applicable laws and regulations as and when such becomes applicable. Citibank does not provide legal and/or tax advice and is not responsible for advising an investor on the laws pertaining to his/her transaction. Citi Research (CR) is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For more information, please refer to https://www.citivelocity.com/cvr/eppublic/citi_research_disclosures Country Specific Disclosures Australia This document is distributed in Australia by Citigroup Pty Limited ABN 88 004 325 080, AFSL No. 238098, Australian credit licence 238098. Any advice is general advice only. It was prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Before acting on this advice you should consider if it's appropriate for your particular circumstances. You should also obtain and consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement and terms and conditions before you make a decision about any financial product, and consider if it s suitable for your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Investors are advised to obtain independent legal, financial, and taxation advice prior to investing. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Investment products are not available to US people and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Bahrain This document is distributed in Bahrain by Citibank, N.A., Bahrain. Citibank, N.A., Bahrain, may in its sole and absolute discretion provide various materials relating to the securities for information purposes only. Citibank, N.A., Bahrain is licensed by the Central Bank of Bahrain as a Conventional Retail Bank and is bound by the CBB s regulations and licensing conditions with regards to products and services provided by Citibank, N.A. Bahrain. These terms are governed by and shall be construed in accordance with the laws of the Kingdom of Bahrain. The Customer irrevocably agrees that the civil courts in the Bahrain shall have non-exclusive jurisdiction to hear and determine any suit, action or proceeding and to settle any disputes which may arise out of or in connection with these Terms and Conditions and for such purposes the Customer irrevocably submits to the jurisdiction of such courts. Investment products are not insured by government or governmental agencies. Investment and Treasury products are subject to Investment risk, including possible loss of principal amount invested. Past performance is not indicative of future results: prices can go up or down. Investors investing in investments and/or treasury products denominated in foreign (non-local) currency should be aware of the risk of exchange rate fluctuations that may cause loss of principal when foreign currency is converted to the investors home currency. Investment and Treasury products are not available to U.S. persons. All applications for investments and treasury products are subject to Terms and Conditions of the individual investment and Treasury products. Customer understands that it is his/her responsibility to seek legal and/or tax advice regarding the legal and tax consequences of his/her investment transactions. If customer changes residence, citizenship, nationality, or place of work, it is his/her responsibility to understand how his/her investment transactions are affected by such change and comply with all applicable laws and regulations as and when such becomes applicable. Customer understands that Citibank does not provide legal and/or tax advice and are not responsible for advising him/her on the laws pertaining to his/her transaction. Citibank Bahrain does not provide continuous monitoring of existing customer holdings. Hong Kong This document is distributed in Hong Kong by Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited ("CHKL"). Prices and availability of financial instruments can be subject to change without notice. Certain high-volatility investments can be subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal the amount invested. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 9
Country Specific Disclosures India This document is distributed in India by Citibank N.A. Investment are subject to market risk including that of loss of principal amounts invested. Products so distributed are not obligations of, or guaranteed by, Citibank and are not bank deposits. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Investment products cannot be offered to US and Canada Persons. Investors are advised to read and understand the Offer Documents carefully before investing. Indonesia This report is made available in Indonesia through Citibank N.A., Indonesia Branch. Citibank N. A., is a bank that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK). Korea This document is distributed in South Korea by Citibank Korea Inc. Investors should be aware that investment products are not guaranteed by the Korea Deposit Insurance Corporation and are subject to investment risk including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Investment products are not available to US persons. Malaysia Investment products are not deposits and are not obligations of, not guaranteed by, and not insured by, Citibank Berhad, Citibank N.A., Citigroup Inc. or any of their affiliates or subsidiaries, or by any government or insurance agency. Investment products are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. These are provided for general information only and are not intended as a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or currency or other investment products. Citibank Berhad does not represent the information herein as accurate, true or complete, makes no warranty express or implied regarding it and no liability whatsoever will be accepted by Citibank Berhad, whether in contract, tort or otherwise, for the accuracy or completeness of such information including any error of fact or omission herein which may lead to any direct or consequential loss, damages, costs or expenses arising from any reliance upon or use of the information in the material. People's Republic of China This document is distributed by Citibank (China) Co., Ltd in the People's Republic of China (excluding the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and Taiwan). Philippines This document is made available in Philippines by Citicorp Financial Services and Insurance Brokerage Phils. Inc, and Citibank N.A. Philippine Branch. Investors should be aware that Investment products are not insured by the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation or Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government entity. Singapore This report is distributed in Singapore by Citibank Singapore Limited ( CSL ). Investment products are not insured under the provisions of the Deposit Insurance and Policy Owners Protection Schemes Act of Singapore and are not eligible for deposit insurance coverage under the Deposit Insurance Scheme. Thailand This document contains general information and insights distributed in Thailand by Citigroup and is made available in English language only. Citi does not dictate or solicit investment in any specific securities and similar products. Investment contains certain risk, please study prospectus before investing. Not an obligation of, or guaranteed by, Citibank. Not bank deposits. Subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested. Subject to price fluctuation. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Not offered to US persons. Vietnam This document is distributed in Vietnam by Citibank, N.A., - Ho Chi Minh City Branch and Citibank, N.A. - Hanoi Branch, licensed foreign bank s branches regulated by the State Bank of Vietnam. Investment contains certain risk, please study product s prospectus, relevant disclosures and disclaimers and the terms and conditions for details before investing. Investment products are not offered to US persons. United Kingdom This document is distributed in U.K. by Citibank Europe plc, UK Branch. The registered address in the UK is Citibank Centre, Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5LB. Citibank Europe plc, UK Branch is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. MARKET OUTLOOK PAGE 10