THRIVENT SELECT MANAGED PORTFOLIOS SM Sophisticated investment solutions made simple Thrivent SELECT Managed Portfolios SM Quarterly Newsletter as of December 31, 2017 Economic & Market Overview U.S. economic growth surpassed expectations, and the final reading for third quarter s gross domestic product (GDP) was revised upward from the initial estimate of 3.0% to 3.. 1 The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected and unemployment fell close to its lowest level in 17 years at 4.1%, while the jobless rate in the manufacturing sector slid to an all-time low of 2.6%. Although demand for labor was high and the supply of workers was low, wage growth did not show significant acceleration, with average hourly earnings rising slightly less than 2.5% year-over-year. 2 The price of oil and most other commodities increased for the second quarter in a row with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ending the year just above $60 per barrel. 3 Due to strength in the economy and job market, the Federal Reserve (Fed) made the widely anticipated move of raising short-term interest rates by 0.25% for the third time in 2017 in mid-december. In their meeting notes, Fed policymakers increased projections for economic growth in 2018, but left their forecast in place for three additional rate hikes in 2018. In October, the Fed began scaling back its reinvestments into U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities by $10 billion per month. This is expected to continue at a greater scale over time. The dollar weakened, partly due to stronger growth in Europe and Japan, which are both in earlier stages of economic expansion than the U.S. 1 Bureau of Economic Analysis: Gross Domestic Product Third Quarter 2017 (Dec. 21, 2017). 2 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: The Employment Situation November 2017 (Dec. 8, 2017). 3 Bloomberg-West Texas Intermediate Crude (Dec. 29, 2017). Page 1 of 8 Only valid with all pages.
Asset Allocation Update The U.S. equity market continued to post steady gains fueled by strong corporate earnings, surprisingly low inflation and optimism surrounding monetary and fiscal policies. The U.S. Treasury yield curve continued to flatten during the quarter, with short-term rates rising while long-term rates remained flat or lower. Your Thrivent SELECT Managed Portfolio s diversification across multiple equity and fixed-income asset classes meant that some holdings outperformed the broad market indexes while others lagged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit multiple new highs throughout the quarter, flirting with the 25,000 mark by year-end. The blue-chip index recorded its ninth straight quarterly gain the longest streak since 1997. The bellwether S&P 500 Index also continued to reach new heights, advancing 6.64% during fourth quarter its strongest quarterly gain since fourth quarter 2015 and ending 2017 at 21.83%. Growth stocks whose earnings are expected to grow at a faster rate than the broader market continued to outperform value stocks. The Russell 1000 Growth Index advanced 7.86%, beating the Russell 1000 Value Index s return of 5.33% by more than 2.5% for the quarter and by more than 16% for the year. Meanwhile, small-cap stocks fell short of their large-cap cohorts for the quarter and year with the Russell 2000 Index gaining 3.34% and 14.65%, respectively, over the two periods. Overseas, emerging-market stocks continued to outpace developed markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 7.44% for the quarter, bringing the year-to-date return for the segment to 37.28%. This compares to a 4.23% quarterly and 25.03% annual return for developed markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index. As is typical during monetary policy tightening, the U.S. Treasury yield curve continued to flatten during fourth quarter. Short-term rates moved higher while long-term rates stayed fairly range-bound, although they ended the quarter and year lower than where they started. Rates at the short end of the curve moved higher in response to the Fed s rate increases, while rates at the long end were pressured downward by weak inflation numbers. The difference in yields between five- and 30-year Treasuries compressed from 110 basis points at the beginning of 2017 to 54 basis points by year-end, reflecting expectations for continuing Fed tightening in 2018. The U.S. bond market produced muted returns during the quarter with the broad market proxy the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gaining 0.39%. For the year, the index was up 3.54%. Municipal bonds were slightly stronger performers, with the Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Index up 0.75% for the quarter and 5.45% for the year. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Investment Grade Index was up 1.17% and 6.4 for the quarter and year, respectively. High-yield bonds posted relatively strong performance, too, with the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index up 0.47% for the quarter and 7.50% for the year. Page 2 of 8 Only valid with all pages.
Program Update From Thrivent Asset Management Asset Class and Underlying Fund Highlights (Note that not all products and asset classes are represented in all portfolios, so the comments are general in nature and may not apply to your specific portfolio.) Attribution Analysis 1 Only one of the five SELECT portfolios topped its respective Morningstar Target Risk Indexes for the quarter. Two of five outperformed their Morningstar Target Indexes for the past year, all three have outperformed for the past three years, and all five have outperformed their respective indexes over the past five- and 10-year time periods. The difference in performance often called active return can come from asset allocation if an overweighted asset class outperforms the broad benchmark, or from individual security selection when a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) outperforms its specific benchmark component. The most significant detractor for the quarter and for the year came from having less equity exposure than the benchmark, which hurt due to strong equity performance. Additionally, less exposure to non-u.s. stocks hurt the portfolios because foreign stocks generally performed better than U.S. stocks throughout 2017. The quarter s most significant positive drivers of outperformance in comparison to the benchmark came from an overweighted position in domestic large-cap stocks instead of smaller-cap stocks, and good performance from the fixed-income products held in the portfolios. Over the course of the year, several individual mutual funds stood out as strong performers, including positions in large value, small core, emergingmarkets equity and investment-grade corporate bonds. Portfolio Adjustments and Positioning Review 2 While used as SELECT performance benchmarks, the Morningstar Target Risk Indexes are not factors in determining SELECT allocations. Therefore, the portfolios could be overweighted in an asset class against the Morningstar Index, and underweighted in the same asset class against Thrivent Asset Management long-term strategic targets. This section discusses any allocation changes that were made and how the portfolio was positioned at the end of the quarter in comparison to long-term targets. Toward the end of the year, trades were made to diversify the international equity position, reduce exposure to floating-rate bank loans and rebalance positions that had drifted away from targets. The international equity position is being split among three mutual funds half to a low-cost quantitative manager, and the other half split between two complementary fundamental active managers. 1 Source: Thrivent Asset Management. Please refer to the corresponding SELECT Managed Portfolios performance report. 2 Portfolio adjustments may cause tax consequences that you should discuss with your tax advisor. In addition, short-term trading fees may apply to certain transactions. Please consult the applicable fund prospectuses for further information. Page 3 of 8 Only valid with all pages.
Floating-rate bank loans disappointed over the past year despite rising short-term interest rates. With spreads tightening, many issuers were able to refinance or reprice their loans, lowering yields and negating some of the benefits of having securities tied to rising interest rates. In light of that, the portfolios modestly reduced exposure to bank loans, reallocating primarily to investment-grade corporate bonds, which are higher in credit quality. When compared to strategic targets, the portfolios are underweighted in equities, given relatively high equity valuations and the extended length of the economic expansion. The portfolios are also overweighted internationally in comparison to strategic targets, but still have less exposure outside the U.S. than comparable Morningstar Target Risk Indexes. On the fixed-income side, the portfolios still have significant exposure to credit-sensitive sectors, like high-yield bonds and floating-rate bank loans, but have reduced that exposure somewhat while further diversifying to emerging-market debt and investment-grade corporate bonds. Program Overview Thrivent SELECT Managed Portfolios is a discretionary asset management program that offers a series of well-diversified model portfolios designed to fit a range of investment styles, from conservative to aggressive. Your Thrivent Financial representative will help you identify your investment objectives and risk tolerance and recommend an appropriate model portfolio. Tax-sensitive models are also available for clients with taxable accounts. These portfolios are constructed and maintained by Thrivent Asset Management personnel. The program offers active management, including asset class optimization based on among other things changing market conditions and a rigorous product implementation and monitoring process. Thrivent Asset Management is responsible for the investment decisions in these portfolios, including both asset allocation and securities selection, and modifies the asset allocation mix in the portfolios as necessary to balance performance and risk. The Thrivent Investment Management Inc. Managed Account Program Brochure (Form ADV part 2A, Appendix 1) contains more complete information on the SELECT Managed Portfolios. Please ask your Thrivent Financial representative for a copy. You should read it carefully before deciding to invest in the program. Page 4 of 8 Only valid with all pages.
While we believe asset allocation and diversification 1 are the first steps toward successful investing, maintaining a mix of high-quality investments is also important. This graphic helps illustrate how Thrivent Asset Management personnel sort through the thousands of products available to arrive at a well-diversified portfolio. THE SELECT INVESTMENT-SELECTION PROCESS 2 Entire Mutual Fund and Exchange-Traded Funds Universe (more than 8,500 products) Performance Performance: Seek investment products that perform well relative to their peers. Costs Style Analysis Risk/Return Metrics Costs: Expenses are reasonable compared to the peer group. Style Analysis: The investment generally exhibits style consistency, which supports an overall asset allocation strategy. Risk/Return Metrics: Seek investment products with a favorable balance of risk and return. Short-Term Government Investment-Grade Credit High-Yield International Equity Small-Cap Equity Mid-Cap Equity Large-Cap Growth Large-Cap Value Large-Cap Core Fund Management Research and Interviews Decision Fund Management Research and Interviews: Periodically, fund managers are interviewed to get a better sense of their management skills and style. Decision: Thrivent Asset Management personnel debate the merit of each fund before making a final decision to add it to the portfolio. WELL-DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO 3 1 While diversification can help reduce market risk, it does not eliminate it. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. 2 Each of the SELECT portfolios is constructed by Thrivent Asset Management personnel taking into account the investment characteristics of the portfolio as a whole. Accordingly, while the screening criteria represent guidelines in the selection of investments, the Thrivent Asset Management personnel primarily responsible for producing the models may determine that it is appropriate to include a particular investment that does not meet a specific guideline. For example, they may select a fund that has underperformed in recent periods due to its investments in an asset class that Thrivent Asset Management believes is undervalued or may choose a fund with higher volatility if such a fund helps to diversify against risk in another portion of the portfolio. The Thrivent SELECT Managed Portfolios SM invests primarily in nonproprietary no-load and load-waived mutual funds, closed-end mutual funds and ETFs, as well as Thrivent Mutual Funds. Thrivent Asset Management, LLC serves as investment manager to the Thrivent Mutual Funds and receives a management fee for its services as disclosed in the applicable Thrivent Mutual Fund prospectuses. Thrivent and its affiliates may earn distribution and other fees, including 12b-1 fees, in connection with Thrivent Mutual Funds. Thrivent and its affiliates may also earn advisory, distribution, and/or other fees from the use of nonproprietary no-load and load-waived mutual funds, closed-end mutual funds and ETFs. Thrivent Investment Management Inc. will rebate 12b-1 fees for any mutual fund that charges a 12b-1 fee in the Thrivent SELECT Managed Portfolios. 3This is a hypothetical example of the asset classes that may be used in a Thrivent SELECT Managed Portfolio SM and may not be all-inclusive. The actual asset classes and percentages will vary based on the model s investment objective and Thrivent Asset Management s market outlook. Page 5 of 8 Only valid with all pages.
Thrivent SELECT Managed Portfolios SM The following charts illustrate the current asset class weightings and the current investments in the Thrivent SELECT Managed Portfolios SM as of Dec. 31, 2017. Some products may hold both stocks and bonds. When possible, those weightings are reflected in the totals in the center of each respective portfolio s allocations. The asset class weightings and investments in these portfolios are subject to change at any time based upon the discretion of Thrivent Asset Management personnel. However, this report is updated quarterly. Investors receive quarterly performance reports and statements not less than quarterly. Conservative This model seeks a high level of current income consistent with stability of principal while maintaining prospects of modest long-term capital growth by implementing a conservative asset allocation strategy. Moderately Conservative This model seeks longterm capital growth while attempting to provide reasonable stability of principal by implementing a moderately conservative overall asset allocation strategy. 73% 64% 25% 34% 3% JHancock Disciplined Value (JVLIX) 4% Thrivent Large Cap Value (TLVIX) 1% Mainstay Large Cap Growth (MLAIX) 1% Thrivent Large Cap Growth (THLCX) 1% ishares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt (ITOT) 4% Mairs & Power Growth (MPGFX) 1% Wells Fargo Special Mid Cap Value (WFMIX) 1% Janus Henderson Enterprise (JMGRX) JP Morgan Small Cap Equity (VSEIX) 3% DFA International Core Equity (DFIEX) Oakmark International (OANIX) T. Rowe Price Intl. Concentrated Equity (PRCNX) 4% Thrivent High Yield (LBHIX) 4% Nuveen Preferred Securities (NPSRX) 4% Oppenheimer Senior Floating Rate (OOSYX) 7% Thrivent Opportunity Income Plus (IIINX) 4% Goldman Sachs Emerging Market Debt (GSDIX) 10% Thrivent Income (LBIIX) 4% Vanguard Interm-Term Corp Bd (VCIT) Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond (VCSH) 11% Doubleline Total Return Bond (DBLTX) 4% ishares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas. Bond (TLT) 1% ishares Barclays TIPS Bond (TIP) 18% Thrivent Limited Maturity Bond (THLIX) Fidelity Government Daily Money (FZBXX) 4% JHancock Disciplined Value (JVLIX) 4% Thrivent Large Cap Value (TLVIX) Mainstay Large Cap Growth (MLAIX) 3% Thrivent Large Cap Growth (THLCX) 5% Mairs & Power Growth (MPGFX) ishares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt (ITOT) Wells Fargo Special Mid Cap Value (WFMIX) JP Morgan Small Cap Equity (VSEIX) 5% DFA International Core Equity (DFIEX) 3% Oakmark International (OANIX) T. Rowe Price Intl. Concentrated Equity (PRCNX) 3% Thrivent High Yield (LBHIX) 3% Nuveen Preferred Securities (NPSRX) 4% Oppenheimer Senior Floating Rate (OOSYX) 6% Thrivent Opportunity Income Plus (IIINX) 4% Goldman Sachs Emerging Market Debt (GSDIX) 9% Thrivent Income (LBIIX) 4% Vanguard Interm-Term Corp Bd (VCIT) Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond (VCSH) 10% Doubleline Total Return Bond (DBLTX) 3% ishares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas. Bond (TLT) 1% ishares Barclays TIPS Bond (TIP) 15% Thrivent Limited Maturity Bond (THLIX) Fidelity Government Daily Money (FZBXX) Large-Cap Value Large-Cap Growth Multi-Cap Core Mid-Cap Value Mid-Cap Growth Small-Cap Core International Equity Opportunistic Equity Preferred Securities Multi-Sector Income Floating-Rate Bank Loans High Yield International Debt Page 6 of 8 Only valid with all pages. Investment Grade See the back cover for important disclosures. Securitized Debt Government Inflation-Protected Bond Short Term
Moderate This model seeks longterm capital growth while attempting to provide reasonable stability of principal by implementing a moderate overall asset allocation strategy. 44% 54% 6% JHancock Disciplined Value (JVLIX) 7% Thrivent Large Cap Value (TLVIX) 5% Mainstay Large Cap Growth (MLAIX) 5% Thrivent Large Cap Growth (THLCX) 4% Mairs & Power Growth (MPGFX) ishares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt (ITOT) 3% Wells Fargo Special Mid Cap Value (WFMIX) Janus Henderson Enterprise (JMGRX) 4% JP Morgan Small Cap Equity (VSEIX) 7% DFA International Core Equity (DFIEX) 3% Oakmark International (OANIX) 3% T. Rowe Price Intl. Concentrated Equity (PRCNX) 3% T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock (PRMSX) Thrivent High Yield (LBHIX) Nuveen Preferred Securities (NPSRX) 3% Oppenheimer Senior Floating Rate (OOSYX) 4% Thrivent Opportunity Income Plus (IIINX) Goldman Sachs Emerging Market Debt (GSDIX) 6% Thrivent Income (LBIIX) 3% Vanguard Interm-Term Corp Bd (VCIT) 1% Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond (VCSH) 7% Doubleline Total Return Bond (DBLTX) ishares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas. Bond (TLT) 1% ishares Barclays TIPS Bond (TIP) 11% Thrivent Limited Maturity Bond (THLIX) Fidelity Government Daily Money (FZBXX) Moderately Aggressive This model seeks longterm capital growth by implementing a moderately aggressive overall asset allocation strategy. Aggressive This model seeks longterm growth of capital by implementing an aggressive overall asset allocation strategy. 23% 4% 75% 94% See the back cover for important disclosures. Page 7 of 8 Only valid with all pages. 8% JHancock Disciplined Value (JVLIX) 9% Thrivent Large Cap Value (TLVIX) 8% Mainstay Large Cap Growth (MLAIX) 9% Thrivent Large Cap Growth (THLCX) 4% Mairs & Power Growth (MPGFX) 1% ishares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt (ITOT) 4% Wells Fargo Special Mid Cap Value (WFMIX) 4% Janus Henderson Enterprise (JMGRX) 5% JP Morgan Small Cap Equity (VSEIX) 10% DFA International Core Equity (DFIEX) 5% Oakmark International (OANIX) 5% T. Rowe Price Intl. Concentrated Equity (PRCNX) 3% T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock (PRMSX) 1% Thrivent High Yield (LBHIX) 1% Nuveen Preferred Securities (NPSRX) 1% Oppenheimer Senior Floating Rate (OOSYX) Thrivent Opportunity Income Plus (IIINX) 1% Goldman Sachs Emerging Market Debt (GSDIX) 4% Thrivent Income (LBIIX) 1% Vanguard Interm-Term Corp Bd (VCIT) 1% Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond (VCSH) 4% Doubleline Total Return Bond (DBLTX) 1% ishares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas. Bond (TLT) 6% Thrivent Limited Maturity Bond (THLIX) Fidelity Government Daily Money (FZBXX) 6% JHancock Disciplined Value (JVLIX) 6% Thrivent Large Cap Value (TLVIX) 14% Mainstay Large Cap Growth (MLAIX) 13% Thrivent Large Cap Growth (THLCX) 6% Mairs & Power Growth (MPGFX) 1% ishares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt (ITOT) 1% Wells Fargo Special Mid Cap Value (WFMIX) 5% Janus Henderson Enterprise (JMGRX) 14% JP Morgan Small Cap Equity (VSEIX) 1 DFA International Core Equity (DFIEX) 6% Oakmark International (OANIX) 6% T. Rowe Price Intl. Concentrated Equity (PRCNX) 4% T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock (PRMSX) 1% Thrivent Opportunity Income Plus (IIINX) 1% Thrivent Income (LBIIX) 1% Doubleline Total Return Bond (DBLTX) 1% Thrivent Limited Maturity Bond (THLIX) Fidelity Government Daily Money (FZBXX)
Past performance is no indication of future results. Results shown assume reinvestment of dividends or interest. Any indexes shown are unmanaged and do not reflect the typical costs of investing. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 Index is a widely followed index, and is composed of 500 widely held U.S. large-cap stocks. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of small-cap stocks. The MSCI EAFE Index measures developed-economy stocks in Europe, Australasia and the Far East. The MSCI EM Index measures emerging-economy stocks. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average, commonly referred to as the Nikkei, is a widely followed Japanese stock market index, and is composed of 225 large-cap stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index measures the performance of all stocks traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The Hang Seng Index measures the performance of the largest companies in Hong Kong. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index measures a wide variety of investment-grade U.S. bonds. The Barclays U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index measures performance of the investment-grade corporate bond sector. The Barclays U.S. High Yield Index measures the performance of the high-yield corporate bond sector. The Barclays U.S. Treasury Index measures the performance of bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury. The Barclays 20+ Treasury Index measures the performance of bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury with maturities of 20 or more years. The Barclays Municipal Bond Index is an unmanaged index that includes investment-grade (rated Baa or above by Moody s) tax-exempt bonds that are issued by state and local governments. The Morningstar Target Risk Index family consists of five indexes covering risk preferences ranging from aggressive to conservative. The indexes utilize asset allocation methodologies developed and maintained by Ibbotson Associates to determine underlying index weightings. Investing in a discretionary asset management program (the underlying investment securities) involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. Individual prospectuses for applicable securities, including mutual funds held in an account, contain more complete information on the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses, which investors should read and carefully consider before investing. To obtain prospectuses, contact your financial representative or call 800-847-4836. Securities and investment advisory services are offered through Thrivent Investment Management Inc., 625 Fourth Ave. S., Minneapolis, MN 55415, a FINRA and SIPC member and a wholly owned subsidiary of Thrivent Financial, the marketing name for Thrivent Financial for Lutherans, Appleton, WI. Thrivent Financial representatives are registered representatives of Thrivent Investment Management Inc. They are also licensed insurance agents of Thrivent Financial. Fee-based investment advisory services are available through qualified investment advisor representatives only. Thrivent Investment Management Inc. is the sponsoring investment adviser of the Managed Account Programs offered through National Financial s Managed Account Solutions service, provided by Envestnet Asset Management, Inc., a third-party provider of investment management services. Security transactions are handled by National Financial Services LLC, a Fidelity Investments Company, a registered broker-dealer and a member New York Stock Exchange and SIPC. National Financial Services, Envestnet Asset Management and Thrivent Investment Management Inc. are not affiliated. Your Thrivent Financial representative does not have discretionary trading authority over your account. For additional important information, please visit Thrivent.com/disclosures. Appleton, Wisconsin Minneapolis, Minnesota Thrivent.com 800-847-4836 Page 8 of 8 Only valid with all pages. 33240A R1-18