Global Index Briefing: BRIC MSCI April 19, 20 Dr. Ed Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497-306 jabbott@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents BRIC MSCI Stock Price Index 1 Blue Angels Forward Earnings and Valuation 2 Earnings 3 Revenues 4 NERI & Margins Earnings Growth & Valuation 6 April 19, 20 / Global Index Briefing: BRIC MSCI www.
Stock Price Index 80 70 60 Figure 1. BRIC MSCI INDEX (ratio scale) 4/19 0 40 0 40 30 Local currency US$ 30 20 20 10 10 0 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 20 20 2019 Source: MSCI. 0 1.1 1.0 Figure 2. BRIC MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO (US$ index / local currency index) 1.1 1.0.9.9.8.8.7.7.6.6..4 4/19 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 20 20 2019 Source: MSCI...4 Page 1 / April 19, 20 / Global Index Briefing: BRIC MSCI www.
132 7 Figure 3. Blue Angels Forward Earnings and Valuation BRIC MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION (in local currency) BRIC MSCI Index 04/13/ Blue Angels Implied Price Index* 04/13/ 132 7 82 x1 82 7 x 7 32 x 32 7 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 20 20 2019 7 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December 200, weekly thereafter. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 67 Figure 4. BRIC MSCI, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION (in US$) 67 7 BRIC MSCI Index 04/19/ Blue Angels Implied Price Index* 0/ 7 47 47 37 x1 37 27 x 27 x 7 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 20 20 2019 7 * Implied price index calculated using forward earnings times forward P/Es. Monthly through December 200, weekly thereafter. Source: MSCI and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 2 / April 19, 20 / Global Index Briefing: BRIC MSCI www.
Earnings 70 6 60 Figure. BRIC MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (in local currency) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 19 4/13 70 6 60 Forward earnings* 0 0 4 4 40 40 3 3 30 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 20 20 2019 30 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 200, then weekly. 48 43 38 Figure 6. BRIC MSCI EARNINGS PER SHARE (in US$) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Forward earnings* 48 43 38 33 33 28 19 28 23 23 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 20 20 2019 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 200, then weekly. Page 3 / April 19, 20 / Global Index Briefing: BRIC MSCI www.
Revenues 140 Figure 7. BRIC MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (in local currency) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 140 120 120 0 19 4/13 0 80 80 60 60 40 Forward revenues* 2004 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 20 20 2019 40 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 200, then weekly. 70 60 Figure 8. BRIC MSCI REVENUES PER SHARE (in US$) (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) 70 60 0 0 40 19 40 30 30 20 Forward revenues* 2004 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 20 20 2019 20 * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 200, then weekly. Page 4 / April 19, 20 / Global Index Briefing: BRIC MSCI www.
1 Figure 9. BRIC MSCI INDEX NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* NERI & Margins 1 0 Mar 0 - - - - -1-1 -20-2 -30 NERI Jan 3.30 Feb 1.20 Mar 0.28 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 20 20 2019-20 -2-30 * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Figure. BRIC MSCI PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) 9 8 Forward profit margin* (.8) 9 8 7 7 6 19 6 4 2004 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 20 20 2019 4 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 200, weekly thereafter. Page / April 19, 20 / Global Index Briefing: BRIC MSCI www.
30 20 Figure 11. BRIC MSCI STEG, STRG, & LTEG (percent) Earnings Growth & Valuation LTEG* (24.4) STEG* (16.0) STRG* (.3) 30 20 0 0-20 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 20 20 2019 Note: STEG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term earnings growth. STRG is year-ahead forward consensus expected short-term revenue growth. LTEG is five-year consensus expected long-term earnings growth. Monthly data through 200, weekly thereafter. Figure 12. BRIC MSCI VALUATION - 20 1 Forward P/E* (12.2) 1 1.2 1.2 1.00 1.00.7 Relative P/E** (0.8) PEG Ratio*** (0.).7.0.0.2 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 2006 2007 2008 2009 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 20 20 2019.2 * Price divided by forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December 200, then weekly. ** Forward P/E relative to MSCI World forward P/E. *** Forward P/E relative to consensus -year LTEG forecast. Page 6 / April 19, 20 / Global Index Briefing: BRIC MSCI www.
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