Capital Market Update February 10, 2011 Marc Louargand, Ph.D., CRE, FRICS Principal SALTASH PARTNERS LLC investing in American ingenuity
A Brief Tour of the Capital Market What s happened in the past year? Capital market conditions Property market conditions Outlook for 2011 and beyond Property sectors to watch
Treasury Liabilities have Doubled in Five Years $ Billions 10,000 U.S. Treasury Liabilities Outstanding Treasury Debt Held by Rest of World 13.97% 100.0% 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,338.2 6,804.4 7,143.1 7,520.8 7,781.9 8,259.6 8,603.8 8,993.8 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 6,000 60.0% 5,000 4,678.0 4,861.7 5,099.2 50.0% 4,000 40.0% 3,000 30.0% 2,000 20.0% 1,000 10.0% 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 0.0% Federal Reserve
Add in GSE and Agency Liabilities $ Billions 18,000 16,000 Treasury Debt and GSE and Agency Liabilities GSE's Liability Treasury Debt 14,862.3 16.26% 15,139.4 15,442.6 14,000 12,000 10,000 9,520.1 9,922.7 10,091.2 10,321.3 10,488.5 8,000 7,270.2 7,489.5 8,009.4 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Federal Reserve Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010
Is Quantitative Easing Working? 2,500 St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (BASE), Billions of Dollars, Bi- Weekly, Seasonally Adjusted: January 26, 2011 vs London Gold Fixing & CPI Monetary Base London Gold Fixing CPI x 10 No Apparent Effect, Yet 2,000 1,500 Benign Liquidity Trap? 1,000 500 0 Federal Reserve; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Deutsche Bundesbank; Saltash Partners
1984-02-01 1986-02-01 1988-02-01 1990-02-01 1992-02-01 1994-02-01 1996-02-01 1998-02-01 2000-02-01 2002-02-01 2004-02-01 2006-02-01 2008-02-01 2010-02-01 Is Inflation around the Corner? 2,500 2,000 St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (BASE), Billions of Dollars, Bi-Weekly, Seasonally Adjusted: January 26, 2011 vs London Gold Fixing & Price Indices Monetary Base London Gold Fixing CPI x 10 Commodity Index x 10 1,500 1,000 500 0 Federal Reserve; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Deutsche Bundesbank; IMF; Saltash Partners
Is Quantitative Easing Working? 6.00 Treasury Yield Curve 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1/21/2011 1.00 0.00 4 week 1 year 5 year 7 year 10 year 20 year 30 year
Has Inflation Begun? Wall Street Journal yesterday Inflation Worries Spread China Raises Rates amid Hit to Wheat Crop Treasury Yields at 9-Month High Paul Volcker on inflation "won't be a problem next year, it won't be a problem for several years. October, 2010
When Will Demand Return? Recent Post-Recession Employment Recovery 100% 99% 98.6% 1990 2001 2008 33 48 98% 98.0% 97% 96% 95% CENSUS December, 2010 94.7% of peak 94% 93% 92% This is the sharpest employment decline in the modern era February, 2010 93.8% of peak Signs of a bottom? 91% 90% Bureau of Labor Statistics; Saltash Partners LLC Establishment Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 Months to Recover Peak Employment
Commercial Mortgage Supply Easing? 100 FRB Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: Net Percentage of Domestic Respondents Tightening Standards for Commercial Real Estate Loans 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-20 -40
Commercial Mortgage Demand Rising 60 FRB Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: Net Percentage of Domestic Respondents Reporting Stronger Demand for Commercial Real Estate Loans 40 20 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-20 -40-60 -80
Whither Cap Rates? 600 Core Property Spread = Cap Rate - 10 year Treasury 500 400 300 200 100 0 J '01 Real Capital Analytics; Federal Reserve; Saltash Partners LLC A J O J '02 A J O J '03 A J O J '04 A J O J '05 A J O J '06 A J O J '07 A J O J '08 A J O J '09 A J O J '10 A J O
Property Risk Premium Declining? 250.0% Core Property Risk Premium as Percent of Risk Free Rate Caprate - 10 yr Treasury/10 yr Treasury 200.0% 150.0% 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% Real Capital Analytics; Saltash Partners LLC J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
19781 19784 19793 19802 19811 19814 19823 19832 19841 19844 19853 19862 19871 19874 19883 19892 19901 19904 19913 19922 19931 19934 19943 19952 19961 19964 19973 19982 19991 19994 20003 20012 20021 20024 20033 20042 20051 20054 20063 Whither Cap Rates? 600.0 Basis Points NCREIF Cap Rates Trailing Spread 1978-2006 400.0 200.0 High inflation years 0.0-200.0-400.0 Low inflation years -600.0-800.0-1000.0 NCREIF; Federal Reserve; Saltash Partners LLC
Recent Core Property Returns 30.00% NCREIF ODCE Total Return 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-10.00% -20.00% -30.00% -40.00% NCREIF -36.8% Change including Income return Overshoot?
Recent Core Property Returns 30.00% NCREIF ODCE Total Return 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-10.00% -20.00% -42% in 2 years including Income return -30.00% -40.00% NCREIF Overshoot?
Business Credit is Beginning to Come Back 1000 Credit Market Borrowing Domestic nonfinancial sectors Business Domestic nonfinancial sectors Business Corporate 800 600 Small and Mid-Market Businesses are coming back to the window, slowly 400 200 0 Federal Reserve -200
Commercial and Multifamily Not So Much 4,000 Commercial and Multi-Family Mortgages Outstanding Multi-Family Commercial Total 3,500 3,245.1 3,413.3 3,415.3 3,410.2 3,386.5 3,330.5 3,296.5 3,244.2 3,202.5 3,000 2,898.8 2,583.3 2,500 2,000 2,455.8 2,572.7 2,567.1 2,554.8 2,528.3 2,479.3 2,446.1 2,399.6 2,355.5 1,500 1,916.5 2,191.3 1,000 500 666.8 707.5 789.3 840.6 848.2 855.4 858.2 851.2 850.4 844.6 847.0 0 Federal Reserve Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010
Mortgage Portfolio Continued to Shrink Commercial Mortgages Outstanding by Holder $ Billions 2,500 Commercial Banks Life Insurers CMBS REITs 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Federal Reserve Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010
Originators All Pulled Back 60 40 20 $ Billions Change in Mortgage Assets by Holder GSE's Life Co.'s Credit Unions Savings Inst.'s Commercial Banks ABS Issuers No meaningful volume but MBA reports Commercial up 63% over 2010Q3 in last quarter 0-20 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010-40 -60-80 -100-120 Federal Reerve
Las Vegas Detroit Pittsburgh Miami Jacksonville Phoenix Palm Beach Tertiary West Central CA Cincinnati Inland Empire Philadelphia San Antonio Columbus Tertiary Southeast Orlando Tertiary Southwest Manhattan Broward Houston Memphis Boston Sacramento NYC Outer Boroughs + Long Island Tertiary Midwest Cleveland Tampa Dallas Indianapolis Richmond/Norfolk Tertiary Mid-Atlantic Atlanta Orange Co St Louis Los Angeles No NJ Charlotte Hartford Chicago Minneapolis Nashville San Francisco Denver Tertiary Northeast San Jose Austin East Bay Seattle Kansas City San Diego Stamford Westchester Raleigh/Durham DC Metro Portland Salt Lake City The Scope of the Problem Distress as a Share of Market Distress 50% Volume (millions) $16,000 45% 40% 35% 30% Sales Volume 2005-2008 Distress as % of Volume $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 25% $8,000 20% 15% 10% 5% $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 0% $0 Real Capital Analytics
The Scope of the Problem - a Closer Look 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 44% 22% 18% Distress as % of 2005-2008 Deal Volume: Selected Markets 14% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% Real Capital Analytics
What s Going on in The Institutional Market? Tax exempts chasing Core and Funds Barbell strategy, Core and Opportunistic Shift from Separate Accounts to Funds Premier markets Trophy properties Lots of firings Some hirings
6.0% 5.9% 6.0% 6.3% 6.3% 6.2% 6.8% 7.1% 6.9% 7.0% 6.9% 7.6% 7.9% 8.1% Do These Numbers Look Familiar? 9% 8% Recent Cap Rates in Active Markets NY DC LA SF CHI 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Apartment Office Retail Real Capital Analytics
What s Wrong with the Current Strategy? Corest of Core office properties have gain to lease Rents will be rolling down for some time Tenants are demanding expensive TI s and other concessions Declining cash flow in early years will kill the IRR Office will take the longest to recover fully
Where are the Best Opportunities? Multi-family development and rehab Massive generation maturing into the work force Huge pent-up demand from the recession Continued shift to the new urbanism Very low level of new supply in recent years Rents are rising Concessions are easing
Where are the Best Opportunities? Hotels are looking attractive Midweek January occupancy up 10% YoY Business travel is back Lots of room for occupancy growth Even more room for RevPAR Growth Pricing has not caught up with hotels as quickly as other property types Distressed assets are trading
Where are the Best Opportunities? Hurt Core office Has been lightly traded as yet Capital spent on tenants will be increasing revenue Revenue will grow annually as market recovers Rush to sustainability can be implemented with TI dollars Retrofitting vacant space for sustainability will speed rent-up
Where are the Best Opportunities? Developable land (Yikes!) Multi-family home sites Single family pre-development Homebuilders are acquiring again Reduced supply will begin to tell in 2 to 3 years Sustainability movement will require sites recycled from other uses now in low demand