also use this information in their Sunday editions. Electronic media may ground memo will appear in Sunday s Star-Ledger. Other newspapers may RELEASE INFORMATION RELEASE: SL/EP13-4 (EP63-4) MICHAEL DELLI CARPINI FOR RELEASE: SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 1986 A story based on the survey findings presented in this release and back CONTACT: BOB CARTER OR RUTGERS Eog!e on!r5!.te cf P3. c- Je. ersev C890 20 E-22C TAX REFORM AND THE ECONOMY: NEW JERSEYANS SUPPORT FEDERAL TAX REFORM; A majority of New Jerseyans favor the federal tax reforms recently passed by s no clear consensus among Garden 5 aters as to whether the :ax November 15 from (201) 932-3605 (Rutgers Feature Phone). ATTENTION RADIO STATIONS: Audio is available after 6:00 p.m. on Saturday, -more slipped slightly in recent months. Reagan and Governor Kean, though Kean s support among Democrats and Independents has New Jerseyans continue to give high marks for the jobs being done by President what it was in 1982. who say their famil y s financial situation has improved over the last year is double economy as well as their own financial situation. In addition, the number of people current economic c limate, and they are optimistic about the future of the state s finds that a large majority of New Jerseyans are generally happy with the state s The survey, c onducted between October 10 and 19 with 800 residents, further families, the rich, or businesses. reforms will help or hurt various groups in society such as the poor, middle income Poll. Also, there i it will help people like themselves, according to the latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton will pay the same or more in taxes under the new system and that only 2-in-lO feel Congress and signed into law, despite the fact that 8-in-b residents believe they SEE GOOD TIMES ECONOMICALLY FOR STATE AND SELVES attribute this copyrighted information to the Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll. release after 6:00 p.m. Saturday, November 15. We ask users to properly Site,ètar-TLCbWF/EAGLETON POLL
have not heard or read anything a something about this legislation, became law. Sixty-eight percent of New Jerseyans say they have heard or read while a somewhat surprising 30 percent say they tenure in office, and last month major changes in the federal income tax system The issue of tax reform has been discussed throughout most of President Reagan s( -more- -- 48 26 percent feel they will be hurt. percent feel the poor will be helped by the reforms; -- 36 percent feel the rich will be helped; 19 percent feel they will be hurt. percent feel they will be hurt. -- 30 percent feel big corporations will be helped by tax reform; 29 -- 27 they will be hurt. -- 22 percent feel tax reform will help people like themselves, while 41 percent feel they will be hurt. percent feel middle income families will be helped; 45 percent percent feel small businesses will be helped; 41 percent feel -- 25 feel they will be hurt. will pay less in federal taxes. surprisingly, 85 percent of those Interestingly, about two-thirds of those who fee Feel ( those under 30 years old are more Oespite majority support for the tax reforms, a large number of New Je rseyans Republicans more likely to favor i themselves favor the new tax syst em, as do 78 percent of New Jerseyans who think no consensus on whether reform will help or hurt. Specifically: Among those who feel the reforms will make a difference one way or another, believe the new system will not make much of a difference to most groups in who believe the changes will help people simil supportive than residents over 30 years old. t than Democrats (61 percent to 43 percent). a there is Support for tax reform is not many deductions, while 33 percent are opposed and 16 percent have no opinion. Staters say they favor the new tax society. they will pay the same amount in taxes under it, still sipport the reforms. the new tax system will make no difference to people lie themselves, or who ar to Not nd system which will lower tax rates and eliminate they bout the tax reform. Fifty-one percent of Garden uniform for all groups in the state, however, Wi t h EP63-4 (SL/EP13-4) Page 2
think they will pay more in taxes, 13 percent think they will pay less, and 43 offered no firm opinion. percent say they will pay about the same as they do now. The remaining 6 percent When asked how they themselves might be affected, 38 percent of New Jerseyans -more- significant increase in satisfaction since 1982, when only 15 percent of New gotten worse, and 57 percent say things have stayed the sane. This represents a say things have gotten better over the last year, while 15 percent say things have When asked about their own family s financial situation, 28 percent of residents worse economically over the next year, and 5 percent have no opinion. stay about the same. Only 9 percent of residents predict that things will get will get better during the coming year and another 59 percent feeling things wll conditions in the state to either continue or improve, with 27 percent saying things In addition, most New Jerseyans also expect the current favorable economic is in good times economically. residents, and non-whites when compared to whites are less likely to say New Jersey state. For example, those with incomes under $30,000 compared to higher income Jersey s current economic vitality, however, are not unicorm across all groups in the economically, and another 17 percent offer no firm opinion. Perceptions of New good times economically. Eighteen percent say the state is in bad times Most New Jerseyans, nearly 2-in-3, feel that the state is currently experiencing a simpler and fairer system. perceptions of who will gain or lose from tax reform but more on a feeling that it is overwhelmingly. Most people, however, don t feel they or most other groups will be helped by it. A good deal of the support, then, may be based not so much on feel they will be helped by the new tax system, not surprisingly they support it Michael X. Delli Carpirii, research associate for the Poll, commented, If peol EPS3-4 (SL/EP13-4) Page 3
situation will improve over the upcoming year, while 48 are somewhat more optimistic about their personal economic Future ring the prior year Jerseyans felt thei percent belie had gotten worse du ye it will than the state s as a whole, with 37 percent believing their family s financial New Jerseyans Copyright, The Eagleton Institute/Newark Star-Ledger, 1986-30- performance as excel lent (42 percent) than are Democrats (8 percent). only fair or poor. As usual, Republicans are more likely to judge Reagan s job excellent or good job. Thirty-three percent rate the President s performance as to enjoy positive ratings, with 66 percent of residents saying he is doing an only a fair or poor job (18 percent offer no opinion). Ronald Reagan continues as excellent or good, compared to 40 percent who say the legislature is doing Forty-two percent of New Jerseyans rate the job the State Legislature is doing Independents have dropped from 76 percent in February to 66 percent in October. percent excellent or good. Similarly, the Governor s positive ratings among performance as excellent or good, with most of the Democratic support, while still high for the Republican Governor, had dropped to 64 decline due to a The Governor s ratings are down slightly from his give him a poor rating with the remaining 5 percent h following his landslide reelection when 80 percent of t support among Democrats and Independents. In February cf this year, 81 percent of he public rated h peak in February, weakening of 1986 of residents rate the job being done by the governor as only fair, and 3 percent is doing an excellent job and 50 percent saying a go od job. Twenty-two percent New Jerseyans continue to rate Governor Kean highl y, with 20 percent saying he aving no opinion. remain about the same, and only 12 percent feel it will Democrats thought Kean was doing an excellent or goon job. In the latest poll, get worse. is EP63-4 (SL/EPI3-4) Page 4 ( r family s financial situation had improved and 34 percent felt it (
opinion. The questions and figures referred to in this release are as follows: probable difference in results between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sample taken from that population. Sampling error does not take into account other possible sources of error inherent in any study of public of ±3.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. Sampling error is the by telephone. Figures presented for the total sample of 800 have a sampling error 1986, when a random sample of New Uerseyans, (18 years and older) was interviewed The latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll was conducted between October 10 and 19, BACKGROUND MEMO--RELEASE SL/EPI3-4 (EP63-4), SUNDAY. NOVEMBER 16, 1986 RJ.JT CERS Ecge o - c e -.2 --pay same 66 21 S 9 101 (342) --pay more 31 56 5 8 100 (304) --pay less 78 10 6 6 100 (108) Affect on Your Taxes --no difference 64 21 4 99 (242) --hurt 25 62 5 8 100 (325) --help 85 5 4 5 100 (.73) Like Yourself Affect on People --50+ 51 29 8 12 100 (252) --18-29 61 26 4 3 99 (179) --30-49 42 42 3 12 99 (353) --Independent 4g 34 7 10 100 (233) Party 1.0. --Republican 61 24 4 11 100 (216) Total 51% 33% 5% 11% 100% (799) --Democrat 42. 40 6 11 100 (245) Favor Oppose Depends C t Know Total oppose the tax reform bill passed by Congress? and it will eliminate many deductions and loopholes. fn ]eneral do you favor or The tax reform bill will lower the tax rates for most individuals and businesses. TOTAL 26% 23% 19% 30% 2% 100% (300) A Lot Some A Little None Don t Know Total just a little? tax system--have you read or heatd anything about this? How much, a lot, some, or Congress has recently passed a bill making major revisions in the federal income Thc EaE-TLCbgCr/EAGLETON POLL
--big corporations 30 29 32 2 7 100 (800) --middle income 25 45 23 3 5 101 (799) --the rich 36% 19% 37% 2% 6% 100% (800) Help Hurt Difference Depends Know Total jjjj. No Don t make much of a difference. First.. I m going to read you a short list of different groups, and would like you to October, 1986 28% 15% 57% 100% (800) October, 1982 15 34 50 1 100 (1097) Better Worse Same Don t Know Total things gotten better, worse, or stayed about the same? Thinking now about your family s financial situation over the last year, have Total 27% 9% 59% 5% 100% (798) Better Worse Same Don t Know Total jj. better, get worse, or stay about the same? During the next year, do you think economic conditions in New Jersey will get --over $30,000 77 11 8 5 101 (424) --S15,000--S30,000 57 23 14 6 100 (223) --non-white 45 41 9 5 100 (112) --under $15,000 53 26 15 6 100 (83) Income --white 67 15 12 7 101 (673) Race TOTAL 64% 18% 11% 6% 99% (800) Good Times Bad Times Neither Don t Know Total Jj. you say that economically New Jersey is in good times or bad times right now? How would you generally describe economic conditions in New Jersey now? Would TOTAL 38% 13% 43% 1% 5% 100% (800) More Less Same Depends Don t Know Total taxes, or pay about the same as you do now? Under the new tax laws, do you think 1Q11 will pay more in taxes, pay less in --people like yourself 22 41 30 1 6 100 (800) --small business 27 41 19 1 12 100 (799) --the poor 48 26 20 1 5 100 (798) EP63-4 (SL/EP13-4) -2- ( tell me whether you think the tax reform bill will help them, hurt them, or not (
How would you rate the job Tom Kean is doing as Governor--excellent, good, only Total 37% 12% 48% 3% 100% (800) Better Worse Same Don t Know Total jjfl better off financially, worse off, or about the same as now? And looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you and your family will be --Republican 42 45 10 1 2 100 (217) --Independent 21 47 23 7 2 100 (283) --Democrat 8 40 28 23 1 100 (245) Party--October 1986 October 1986 22% 44% 22% 11% 2% 101% (800) April 1984 12 35 37 15 2 101 (804) April-May 1985 15 40 26 16 3 100 (1000) August 1985 19 39 25 14 3 100 (800) February 1986 23 46 19 9 3 100 (600) July 1986 19 44 23 9 4 99 (800) Excellent Good Only Fair Poor Don t Know Total jpj only fair or poor? How would you rate the job Ronald Reagan is doing as president--excellent. good, October 1986 3% 39% 34% 6% 18% 100% (800) February 1986 4 43 32 7 15 101 (600) April 1984 3 28 45 8 16 100 (805) April-May 1985 2 41 37 6 14 100 (500) August 1985 5 40 37 6 13 101 (800) July 1986 4 40 35 5 16 100 (800) Excellent Good Only Fair Poor Don t Know Total j.pj good, only fair or poor? How would you rate the job the New Jersey State Legislature is doing--excellent, --Independent 15 51 24 2 7 99 (283) --Republican 35 49 13 1 2 100 (217) April-May 1985 24 43 24 3 5 99 (1000) August 1985 22 54 20 2 3 101 (800) February 1986 27 53 14 4 3 101 (600) July 1986 22 52 19 3 5 101 (800) Party- -October 1986 October 1986 20% 50% 22% 3% 5% 100% (800) April 1984 13 44 31 5 8 101 (805) --Democrat 13 51 28 5 3 100 (245) Excellent Good Only Fair Poor Don t Know Total jpj fair or poor? EP63-4 (SL/EP13-4) -3-
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